Jump to content

  • Podcast:  

  • Podcast: 2022 Season Review & Trade Wrap 

POSTGAME: Rd 13 vs Collingwood



Recommended Posts

On 6/15/2022 at 10:13 AM, 1964_2 said:

Can’t criticise anyone for an opinion.

Rather anyone that thinks Dees top 4 is a long shot, should be loading up on who they think will replace us :- as we are currently paying $1.25 for top 4. 

That represents terrible value given our current injuries, form and upcoming fixture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.  

 

 

20220616_040300845_iOS.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites


1 minute ago, Vipercrunch said:

The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.  

 

 

20220616_040300845_iOS.png

more like covering their own backsides.  keep us short while the challengers all come in

I'll wait until we lose to the crows to put my money on us

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.  

 

 

20220616_040300845_iOS.png

That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

 

Edited by binman
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, binman said:

That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

 

As someone who has never placed a bet in my life, I'm more than happy to be schooled by you @binman about this.  In 5 weeks when we're 12-6, hopefully you get the odds you are looking for.  Then the fun begins 🔴🔵🔴🔵

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, binman said:

That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

 

The starting odds for the Swans ($4.20) and the filth ($4) offered by Sportsbet were ridiculously generous. The odds reduced in the following days.

I put money on both these sides, and won a tidy sum. Or should that be tidy sums? Having said that, I would have preferred to lose my money by seeing the Dees win.

I never bet on the Dees ... if they lost it would feel like I was punished twice.

  • Like 1
  • Facepalm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Winners at last said:

The starting odds for the Swans ($4.20) and the filth ($4) offered by Sportsbet were ridiculously generous. The odds reduced in the following days.

I put money on both these sides, and won a tidy sum. Or should that be tidy sums? Having said that, I would have preferred to lose my money by seeing the Dees win.

I never bet on the Dees ... if they lost it would feel like I was punished twice.

Neither, if I bet on Melb games now it's just a same game multi with no head to head leg 😀

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/13/2022 at 10:13 PM, dazzledavey36 said:

So? It literally has no bearing in a round about way.

This never seemed to affect Richmond and Hawthorn when they won flags each year.

The amount t of excuses thrown up on here is seriously laughable. 

I hold my judgement and will check back with you in a months time Dd36 and we will discuss further.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Demonland Forums  

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    EYES ON THE PRIZE by Meggs

    The Stinear/Pearce partnership has evolved over the 7 AFLW seasons and they have built a team with talented, committed footballers who play for each other and execute a highly entertaining brand of footy. On Sunday can a premiership be added to this legacy? This may well be the last time we see Daisy in the mighty red and blue as she contemplates her start date for a coaching role ‘Down at Kardinia Park’.  Last week’s sensational sealer in the Prelim showed everybody that Daisy could s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    DAISY’S DEMON DRIVE by Meggs

    On a blustery Saturday afternoon when the conditions affected marking skills and the ball bounced unpredictably, the Mighty Dees stuck fat against a determined Kangaroos outfit to break away with two final quarter goals to none to win AFLW Preliminary Final 2 by 17 points — an all-time high winning margin between these two teams.  From the outset it was a fiercely fought contest with Melbourne unable to find the ball in space. North really amped up their one-percenters an

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    NOT A MOMENT TO MISS by Meggs

    The AFLW Season 7 fixture was carefully crafted to purposely handicap the better teams and give the expansion and developing sides an easier draw.  Nonetheless, this weekend’s Preliminary Finals will showcase the Lions, Demons, Crows and Roos, teams widely accepted as the best 4 in the competition.   In Friday night’s Prelim 1 the minor premiers, Brisbane, will start warm favourites at home against Adelaide.   On Saturday afternoon at Ikon Park, Prelim 2 between Melbourne and North is

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    STICK TO YOUR GUNS by Meggs

    The Dees convincingly overcome the fast-starting reigning-premiers Adelaide to win by 21 points in a fiery Qualifying Final match at Ikon Park on Friday evening.     In that first quarter Adelaide jumped out of the blocks kicking their first goal inside 20 seconds finishing with 3 goals to nil. All was quiet at Ikon Park.     Melbourne, having easily outplayed lesser opponents over the past six weeks took time to ratchet up their intensity.  But, by mid to late first quarter, the Dees be

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    HEAVYWEIGHTS by Meggs

    AFLW heavyweights Melbourne and Adelaide kick off the AFLW Season 7 Final Series with a massive Qualifying Final clash at Ikon Park this Friday night at 7:10pm.  The game promises to be a cracker.   Last season’s Grand Final combatants last met in Round 1where Melbourne came away with a strong 18-point victory at Glenelg Oval. The Dees will be hoping to replicate the result and move directly to the Preliminary Final.    While Adelaide may not have been as intimidating this season as in p

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH by Meggs

    Congratulations to Daisy’s Dees on a huge 78-point one-sided win against West Coast in challenging windy and wet conditions at Casey Fields.     The banner celebrating Sarah Lampard’s 50 games was a victim of the wind, but nonetheless Lampy received a warm round of applause from the parochial crowd in attendance.   Melbourne has the double-chance and is excited about its chances in the Season 7 AFLW finals. If this means the Grand Final is played at Metricon and the Demond make it, then

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    LIVE IN THE MOMENT by Meggs

    The final home and away match of Season 7, sees the mighty Dees at Fortress Casey hosting the 16th placed West Coast.     A win assures the Dees of a Top-2 finish, with the ultimate placings dependent upon the previous night’s result between Brisbane and Collingwood and the relative percentages.   As our match is anticipated to be one-sided, interest may turn to monitoring the live ladder to see whether or not Melbourne has secured the minor premiership.     The Demons (Lions and Cro

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    BOMBED by Whispering Jack

    Melbourne has all but assured itself of a top two finish to the (second) 2022 AFLW season after crushing Essendon by 41 points on Sunday. It now holds a four point lead over third placed Adelaide along with a handy percentage advantage with one round remaining before the finals. The Demons opened kicking with the advantage of the squally wind that often prevails at Casey Fields and for the third week in a row, they kept their opponents scoreless in the opening term. Speedster Alyssa Ba

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    DAISY DOES IT by Whispering Jack

    The Gold Coast has been treated to a feast of womens football over the past couple of days. On Friday night, the Brisbane Lions claimed flag favouritism when they knocked the Adelaide Crows off their second placed perch at Metricon Stadium. Then on Saturday evening at the same venue, the Melbourne Demons consolidated their hold on that vacated second spot when, they ruthlessly smashed a finals contender in consecutive weeks, this time the home town favourites, the Suns.    It was a case

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...