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My Round 18 Preview and Prediction

CHF
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

13-3

16 rounds played…..13 wins….. 52 points in the premiership bank and back on top after a Bulldogs loss. 6 Rounds to go in the home and away season

“Defence under pressure…. Midfield looking flat and devoid of ideas and imagination …… forward structure non-existent….. or at least still dysfunctional after 15 games this season. Goody thinks that is a good thing.”

The above is what I wrote at the beginning of last weeks Preview & Prediction. In the game against Port with the midfield running and pressuring the defence looked back to its settled self and with the introduction of BB the forwards had a better feel. The result was a much better across the board performance.

I really felt the loss against GWS as it was so far away from how we had performed earlier in the year and seemed to be the latest game in series of deteriorating performances. It was excellent to see the response of the team as a whole.

And so, to Round 18 and we play the Hawthorn this Saturday at The G. Interesting to note that the last 3 teams we have played have all played Hawthorn the week before us. They lost to Essendon, beat GWS and lost to Port. We did the opposite. Not sure if that is a form line indication but I find it an interesting quirk.

The facts:

We are coming off a good win on the road against a top 8 team – Advantage us

We have two days extra rest – Advantage us

We have been vulnerable against the lower placed teams – Advantage them

They are coming off a loss last week in Tassie – Advantage us

1st Vs 17th …. No excuses.

Problem areas of the game for us. Performing against lower placed teams…..

Week in, week out our defensive structure has done a great job. We have the right people in the right place at the right time. Not a lot to say here except that the rest of the team builds on their work, and we need them to maintain their high standards. Their link through the midfield is great. I would have liked may to kick that goal last week. This week the Hawks do not look that potent in attack and in the last few weeks have not really kicked very high scores. Moore Koschitzke and Breust are their main avenues to goal and I think we have the defence to cover them.

Midfield pressure on the ball and the ball carrier from the start was excellent to see. Not sure how or who switched them on, but we need to bring that from the start of match every week. Hawthorn have a couple of very good players in the midfield but I feel they fall away dramatically after that. Mitchell and O’Meara are the main drivers with possessions and clearances and I thin we might give a role to Harmes on Mitchell. I think he does best in a pure run with role. He has the ability to win a contested situation. I would like to see his hands be a bit cleaner with less fumbles.

I think we have the talent and depth to really dominate this area of the ground as long as the mids bring it right from the start.

Delivery into the forwards was improved and with BB there it gives taking at least one defender, it opens up the other options for the midfielders. This is important for their confidence.

McEvoy and Ceglar in the ruck for the Hawks and I think our dynamic duo have them covered in the ruck and around the ground.

Now for the forwards… much better this week with the BB inclusion. Hmmmm wonder why it did not happen the week earlier…..

The good; We kicked a winning score…… with a much better set up and structure.

The bad; Accuracy

The ugly; Selection of BBB a week later than it should have been

I am encouraged by this performance, and I can see a lot of good things to build on leading up to the finals series. Brown to stay in and give the rest of the team a chance to learn a bit about him in game situations. Hawks have the third worst performing defence in the league by points scored against them. Frost playing CHB says it all about the quality of this group. A good chance to work our systems in attack and begin to settle the way we want it to work.

Selection this week is a one cheese platter night and I do not expect any changes. Might be a ‘rested’ player …. Never know.

Bathwater express is getting a bit momentum and the seats are filling now that we are certain to play finals. Added a turbo boost to the power plant thanks to the win last week and I think we have the fuel to carry us along very nicely.

Prediction was very wrong last week, and I am very happy about that. Exact opposite of what I thought may have happened. This week I see a strong win with the team playing out the game 100%.

A win with at least a 7goal margin.

 

Go Dees!!!

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    We need a percentage boost. 
     

    Towelled them by 50 points in the last quarter last time so we’re every chance to repeat a severe thumping. 

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    If we get a dry track this could well be poised for Brown to click into gear. He looked more confident against Port, the way he flew for contests and there were some that he either was unlucky not to clunk the marks or not get them paid. If we can get him more space he can definitely be damaging, and getting him confident and in form could be the final piece of our puzzle. 

    Having said that, take no team lightly. Go in with finals like pressure and show the competition that we are ready to pounce. 

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    The last 5 rounds we have gone WLWLW. We cannot afford to be slack on Saturday. Must come with total focus and win by heaps. But I will take a win by what ever margin. Need this to keep the wolves at bay.

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    It’s going to be wet. Everyone needs to calm down. Every time we play poor sides we play like poo. It’ll take any win. 

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    90% chance of showers, 2-5mm total, with "possible small hail".

    Not ideal.

    However, I think there was a similar forecast early in the week prior to the GWS game, which didn't eventuate.

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    19 hours ago, Pates said:

    If we get a dry track this could well be poised for Brown to click into gear. He looked more confident against Port, the way he flew for contests and there were some that he either was unlucky not to clunk the marks or not get them paid. If we can get him more space he can definitely be damaging, and getting him confident and in form could be the final piece of our puzzle. 

    Having said that, take no team lightly. Go in with finals like pressure and show the competition that we are ready to pounce. 

    BB had better adjust his diet a few days before the Hawks match - massive amounts of Popeye spinach are needed - because he is going to get 'arm-chopped' and 'head-belted from behind' each time he extends for a mark and this tactic will last all game - because the umpires will never see it occur, not even once.

     

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