My Round 5 Preview and Prediction

[dazzledavey36 54,951]

Hawks losing Lewis helps. Has played well the last two weeks. Good game to bring Petty in and get an AFL game under his belt before he takes on Richmond which will be a bigger task obviously. 

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,837]

14 hours ago, CHF said:

4-0

4-zero

4- nil

4-zip

4 – nada

I do like the look of that. The 4 is so important as is the figure 16 for the points we have thus far. I also like the number 8 which is the points break we have over a number of the pre-season ‘contenders’.

And there is 2 which is our position on the ladder.

4 rounds, 4 wins and 16 premiership points in the bank.

You can thank @pinkshark for that:

 

[Deemania since 56 6,651]

5 hours ago, Better days ahead said:

Never tinker with form.

Jetta and Jones are the only players that will need to be managed during the year but neither showed any signs of weariness

Our fitness levels are good with the best in the business Burgo overseeing the conditioning of the players. We’re 4 games in, players can’t be tired yet. They can rest during the mid season break.

I would like Jones and Jetta rested this week to be in tip-top condition for the Tigers match - we will need them for that one - assuredly. Hibberd to come in for Jetta, Petty to come in for May. Sparrow to come in for Jones. 

Daw in, on the bench, utilised in stints forward, in the backline, occasional ruck resting Gawn, Jackson and TMac.

Gawn goes forward, often, Gawn goes back, occasionally when not rucking.

Jackson rucks resting Gawn, then forward utility - alternating

Daw, in off the bench, rucking resting Jackson, deep last line defence with Petty, Forward Pocket - difficult tall match-up for the Hawks and quite a monument to get out of the way.

Hibberd backpocket for Jetta's role with run and carry, and beautiful kicking.

Motto of the Week: MONGREL

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,837]

Would love to see us dominate first half against Hawthorn and just go on from there like we did to Carlton in 2018.

That's been the only thing lacking in our performances to date, to get on top of a side early and then go on with it.  Started to go that way against Freo and St Kilda, but we let them back in with periods where they had the ascendancy and kept them in the game on the scoreboard and mentally, which isn't entirely surprising since they arn't exactly bottom four sides and you'd expect some sort of contest.

Our forward line has been good this year and we are getting so much better at hitting up good targets inside 50, but you still feel there is an oppertunity to make more of our around the ground dominance.  I feel that we were almost totally in control for most of the game against Geelong, but kept them within striking distance by not totally capitalising on the scoreboard.  I don't think we are kicking quite as inaccurately as the scoreboard might suggest, because quite a few of those behinds are rushed, which plays to our dominance, because sides are pushed back to that point in defending our deep forward entries, as opposed to our backline which is mopping up the opposition's entries much more comfortabley around the 30m - 40m area alot of the time.

Feel like we are playing quite conservatively through the midfield alot of the time too, preferring to go around the wings rather than taking on the corridor too much, which may be both a confidence thing or related to a lack of skill by foot or a bit of both.  Feel like we could really rip a side open if we attacked through the corridor a bit more and perhaps having BBB leading from full forward providing a predictable, reliable target might help this too.

Clarkson may be a master strategist, but he doesn't have the troops to play the accurate kicking game he use to, so that takes away his main weapon of choice from years past.  I can just see him getting his players riled up to play the man though and I think that will also become part of the next challenge for us, becoming the hunted every week, although right now we are pretty good hunters, so long as we don't let it go to our heads and start playing like millionaires, but I sense the disappointments of past false dawn's will put that somewhat at bay as the playing group really does seem to be playing with a maturity that correlates to the bulk of the team being in their prime and/or with plenty of experience in the bank.

[one_demon 826]

I think Hawthorn will be a tougher opponent than Geelong who were really flat.  Hawthorn will move the ball quicker,

[Young Blood 2,620]

Obviously have more trust in this team based on the start to the season but its the way they've been winning and swinging momentum in games that gives me more confidence. Over the last few years I've felt that we've been able to challenge teams and throw ourselves at the contest to stay in it or come back. But there's so much more backbone to the resilience this year. The word I keep using talking to people is how proactive we have been when a team challenges us. Instead of going defensive and just make it a contested slog, players like Trac, Viney, Hunt and especially Langdon are moving with the ball and giving us forward momentum out of contests. 

I like most others am still concerned about this game. We're a far better team in better form for sure. But Hawthorn across their first four games haven't been as poor as predicted early on.

- The big comeback against Essendon 

-They hung around against Richmond matching them for two quarters before Tiges put them away in the last

- Came back from five goals to almost beat the cats in the last

- Slow start against the dockers and getting bullied in the last around the ball was probably their worst loss by far

If we play to our strengths and apply the pressure we SHOULD be fine.

[Demonstone 22,573]

I can't for the life of me understand the calls for Majak Daw to be included for this match.   He is very much a "break glass in case of emergency" type player that is well down the pecking order in this team and still not AFL match fit.

If we see him in the senior side at all this year, it will only be because we have a plethora of injuries to our tall brigade.

Edited April 13, 2021 by demonstone
engrish

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,837]

7 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Motto of the Week: MONGREL

Ruthless mongrels.

I really want us to tear the Hawks a new one.

8 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Jackson, deep last line defence

I'm not sure that I'd be as assured by Jackson filling the hole and marking behind play as I am by Gawn, but it would be a good string to add to his game at some point.

[pinkshark 950]

5 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

You can thank @pinkshark for that:

 

Over the moon to be proven wrong.  5-0?  Just doesn't happen! I have no faith.  hahahaha.  sad, but true.

(see what I am doing here?)

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

20 hours ago, CHF said:

4-0

4-zero

4- nil

4-zip

4 – nada

I do like the look of that. The 4 is so important as is the figure 16 for the points we have thus far. I also like the number 8 which is the points break we have over a number of the pre-season ‘contenders’.

And there is 2 which is our position on the ladder.

4 rounds, 4 wins and 16 premiership points in the bank.

I watched it live via streaming and a few times I found myself thinking back to my childhood. As a young lad I just loved to go to the Saturday matinee that was on at the local cinema with my mates during the summer holidays. There was always a really good B grade adventure movie on. A western, a pirate saga or a good war story. All good, but my favourite was always the Musketeers. Damn they were good. Always having fun, Always getting into problem places only to be helped out by one of their other three mates. The backyard games after a Musketeers movie would find us with our sword sticks in hand giving a battle cry of “ALL FOR ONE – ONE FOR ALL!!” followed by a charge into Mum’s flowerbed to decapitate the hydrangeas. God, I got into trouble for that.

The Melbourne Musketeers out played the Geelong Flowerbeds in Round 4. We had a musketeer troop in each area of the ground. They supported each other, exerted the pressure needed, were well lead and looked good doing it.

It was another 4 points, but I find these points the sweetest of the season so far.

And so, to the Round 5 encounter with the Hawks at the G on Sunday afternoon. What to say about the Hawks? Well, they have not been great so far this season. In all truth, I have to admit that I have not followed them all that closely. Saw a little of their game yesterday and while they have a couple of handy performers, they also have a lot of ordinary performers. Clarkson did a great job as a rookie senior coach when he first went there but personally, I think he has run his course. I look at them and see a very ordinary list playing to expectations.

The facts:

We are coming off a win at the G against the Flowerbeds - Advantage us.

We still do not look to be playing to our potential – Advantage them

They had a loss over in WA and have the flights to contend with. - Advantage us

Howe injured for them and Lewis rubbed out, May out for us. - No advantage either way (maybe a bit for them with our loss of May)

Problem areas of the game for us (not sure that this is the right terminology given the wins we have had):

After four matches this season we are seeing a very different team performing in the red and blue than was running around last year. My observations are that the players seem to be very clear on their primary roles, playing them confidently and executing well. They also look to be responding to the on-field situation with more awareness. Well done to the coaching staff if this is the case as they look to have made the message simple and straightforward. A bit like the way we are playing at the moment.

Defence, I was a bit worried about in the first quarter when Lever dropped a couple of simple marks that he would normally snaffle. However, once May went off early in the second, Lever rose to the occasion and did not just cut out errors from his game but took the leadership role in that area of the ground and did a great job with his troop of Musketeers. Next week will test our structure down back with the introduction of a new tall defender into the system. Looks as if it will be Petty and I do not mind that. I know I am down on Jetta a bit but I think Clarkson is just the sort of opposition coach that will come up with a plan to exploit Jetta’s limitations. Loved the way that they adjusted to May’s absence. Hunt is in great form.

Hawks have a few good players in the middle but they will have a problem or three covering all of Oliver, Petracca and Viney and getting their own drive from the center. O’meara and Mitchell are the main threats in the middle and they will need to work hard to dictate terms. If we get the ascendancy there and put them on the back foot so they are reactive rather than proactive then that is the game right there. These three along with the support players are doing the job very well. Langdon is a great pickup for us and, as someone on this board observed, he and Hunt seem to feed off each other and I love the sight of the two of them running the wing.

Max and Luke sharing the ruck duties is working well. The fixtures could not have been better for us with the teams we have met so far having not a lot of ruck talent to go against us. This has allowed Max to move around the ground as required covering defence as required and also moving forward to give an extra dimension to the forward structure. It has also allowed Luke to get some good experience and time in the ruck.

If the mids keep to the Musketeer’s philosophy and play well and support each other, then we should dominate this area.

Now for the forwards……. We have to include discussion of them you know…..

The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Fristch with 4 (there is that number again… Fristch to get 5 this week?)

The bad; This is a tough one…… The bad (for Geelong and I hope for Hawks) our forward pressure across the forward 50.

The ugly; Fristch’s hair

Good to be in the situation where our two missing key forwards are back playing and we are in no rush to get them back in the team. What a luxury it is to be able to nurture them to full fitness via Casey.  I will be interested to see who the poor man’s Jayden hunt is sent to cover. Frost on TMac, Fristch? I just see our troop of forward Musketeer’s having too much flexibility for the Hawks defence. We have pressure forwards to tackle and harass, we have a lot of flexibility to rotate players through there to get the matchup we want to try and exploit and we are getting more accurate.

Last week I predicted a 3 goal win and later revised it upwards to 5 goals and we won by 4. This week I do not want to get ahead of myself so I am going conservative and predicting a win to the Dees by 5 goals.

The bandwagon is parked in the driveway, the red and blue livery polished to perfection and the bathwater steamer bubbling away. There are plenty of vacant seats on board at the moment but I am sure with 5-0 against our name the seats will fill fast.

 

“All for one and one for all!”

 

Weather update for Sunday  -  21 degrees and possible shower.

Dry deck =  Melbourne by 70 plus points

[leave it to deever 17,511]

How many more sleeps?

[leave it to deever 17,511]

5 hours ago, Yung Blood said:

Came back from five goals to almost beat the cats in the last

Our win against the cats was a lot bigger.

We kicked poorly...one poster and 3 clangers should have been a 50 point margin.

Shocking conditions too.

Looking at 8 goal win v hawks.

Edited April 13, 2021 by leave it to deever

[CHF 2,743]

Fritsch out for a couple of weeks at the same time as May for this week's match means that we will be testing the structures at both ends of the ground. I can see Petty coming in for May but that might just depend on how the coaches see the Hawks presenting in their forward 50. We might just see Hibberd as better for this game. It will be an interesting selection that will tell us a bit about our approach to the game.

With the unavailability of Fritsch, the selection meeting might need to munch through a second cheese board as they discus the best replacement.. A lot of questions to ask themselves. Goodwin has stated that BBB and Weid will play VLF this weekend and one question will be around the match fitness of these two. Is Mitch Brown in the frame? Do we shuffle Melksham forward and go with mids rotating forward? 

For me I would like a look at Jordon to replace Fritsch And leave the rest of the forward structure as it is for this round. Maybe bring in Chandler to replace Fritsch and rotate both Kossie and Spargo for short stints in the middle. Kossie for his quickness and imagination and Spargo for his tackling and hardness.... yes I said hardness.... Over the last couple of pre-seasons Spargo has built his body very well and now presents as a good, creative tough player.

Still backing the win and, on the basis of our good structures and attitude, Still going for a 5 goal margin.