THE SAINTS ARE MARCHING BUT WILL IT BE IN OR OUT?

[Demonland 73,140]

by J.V.McKay

I was more than a little shocked when I saw the score of the last game played between Melbourne and St. Kilda from back in round 10. The Demons won that game by a mere 13 points after skipper David Neitz booted eight goals and led the much vaunted Saints' defence a merry dance. I remember the Demons making a fantastic start, having St. Kilda by the throat by half time and generally dominating the game with their close marking and strong tackling.

But a mere 13 points?

That's one of the things that worry me on the eve of Melbourne's third consecutive AFL Elimination Final. The Demons have reserved some of their worst form specifically for Elimination Finals in recent years. If they could only beat St. Kilda by a trifle more than 2 goals when they were at the peak of their form and the Saints were just traveling, what hope is there now after a last half collapse against Geelong and a typically poor performance at AAMI Stadium last weekend against a Crows outfit that had plenty of stars missing and was coming off a six day break?

You could hardly pick Melbourne on form in this game could you?

Since the break for the bye, the Demons have recorded only five wins from 10 games. Make that five and a half if you want to count a draw as "a half win". That's pretty ordinary compared with St. Kilda which has won eight from 10 starts and their only two defeats in that time were against West Coast and Fremantle. Their last two efforts have resulted in 50 point plus victories over the Western Bulldogs and the Brisbane Lions so, on form, you would have to go with the Saints who really appear to be marching confidently into the final series.

However, there are a couple of things that Melbourne still has going for it.

Firstly, the fact that this game is being played at the MCG where the Demons have won 10 games from 11 and the loss was against the Swans when the Demons were without at least half a dozen important players who will be gracing the hallowed turf of the G tomorrow night.

Secondly, there's the hunter/hunted factor that seems to be one of the almost unspoken aspects of the flakey Demons. The Demons don't relish the idea of being the "hunted". Whenever they are red hot favourites in a game, they seem to get the shakes and fall apart. That they lost both times this year to wooden spooner Carlton and that they lost to Adelaide last weekend when the Crows were supposedly on their knees, is testimony to the plausibility of the theory. Melbourne's best performances this year came early when it was under the pump - especially after it lost its first three games on end. Who could ever forget the stirring victory over the Swans in Round 4?

I appreciate that the Saints will go into this game as favourites but I think the team selection for this week marks the return of what is close to Melbourne's best on field combination since the victory against the Western Bulldogs which I mark as being effectively the time when the late season Demon decline started.

The team changes for this week tell the story:-

In Holland Pickett Whelan

Out Bartram Godfrey Motlop

While one can feel sad for Clint Bartram and possibly Godders who has worked his butt off in the past couple of months, Shannon Motlop proved last week that he wasn't up to the pressure of finals football and the incoming trio all add greatly to Melbourne's armoury.

St. Kilda coach Grant Thomas has signaled a great amount of faith in Max Hudghton who he says is rarely beaten twice but what he doesn't consider is that it wasn't just Maxie who was the cause of Neita's eight goals last time - it was also the fact that there were many Demons getting the ball up to the skipper who contributed to the damage. Also the Saints have lost a very solid defensive player in McGuire since that game.

This week, the Demon midfield is back to near full strength, as is the forward line and, as you can see from the three inclusions, the Melbourne defence will be much stronger this time round. I'm happy for them to take on the and to test Aaron Hammill and Justin Koschitzke because I wonder if these two will have the wherewithal to come up to the pace of a finals game under lights at the MCG after they've missed so much of the season.

I also believe that Neale Daniher will come up with a surprise this week by giving Jeff White more game time than he's been receiving in recent weeks and months. That's just a theory I have and it's based completely on a hunch of mine.

No team has beaten Melbourne under lights this year and I'm not expecting St. Kilda to be any different this week. I believe that Grant Thomas and his band of merry men will be marching out of the finals series tomorrow night although I will concede that the game is going to be a close one. In fact, so close that I'm tipping a draw but with Aaron Davey kicking the winning goal in extra time.

Therefore it's …

Melbourne by 6 points.

Thank you very much.

ST KILDA v MELBOURNE

Where & When: MCG, 7:30pm AEST, Friday 8 September, 2006.

TV & Radio:

TV - Channel 10 - Melbourne (7.30pm), Adelaide (6.30pm), Perth (7pm), Sydney (10.35pm), Brisbane (10.35pm)

RADIO 3AW, Triple M, ABC Radio

Head to Head: Played 195, St Kilda 77, Melbourne 117, Drawn 1

Last time they met: Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated St. Kilda 13.12.90 in round four, 2006, at the MCG

The betting: St. Kilda $1.70 Melbourne $2.36

The Teams:

ST. KILDA

B: Voss Hudghton R Clarke

HB: Gram Fisher Fisher

C: X Clarke Ball Montagna

HF: Goddard Riewoldt Hamill

F: Harvey Gehrig Koschitzke

FOLL: Rix Dal Santo Baker

I/C: Milne Peckett Powell Thompson

EMG: Ackland Blake Fiora

In: Hudghton Peckett Powell

Out: Ackland Blake Brooks

MELBOURNE

B: Whelan Carroll Holland

HB: Bruce Rivers Ward

C: Green McLean Johnstone

HF: Yze Miller Bate

F: Robertson Neitz Davey

FOLL: White Jones McDonald

IC: Bell Jamar Pickett Sylvia

EMG: Brown Dunn Read

IN: Holland Pickett Whelan

OUT: Bartram Godfrey Motlop

UMPIRES: Rosebury Schmitt Goldspink