DRAFTING BEYOND THE SQUARE

[Demonland 66,967]

by Whispering Jack

The AFL National Under 18 Championships currently being played at MCLabour and Skilled Stadiums are showcasing 200 of the country's best prospects. History tells us that about one third of them will have earned a place on an AFL club list – either senior or rookie - by Christmas time. That fact alone enables me to paraphrase the words of some big time television sports presenters and make the claim that this is a big week in football for our elite youngsters.

In the space of a few days the likes of Bryce Gibbs, James Sellar, Tom Hawkins, Scott Gumbleton, Leroy Jetta and Lachlan Hansen have fast become household names (well, at least in some households) and endless debate has been sparked about which club will take which of these and countless others on show this week at the forthcoming drafts.

But at the same time, one has to be aware that there's an awful lot of hype out there about many of the players running around during the week. In fact, there are so many and varied opinions about the participants that it's difficult for the casual observer to sort out which of these players is the real deal and which is not. And the true answer is often that we will only be in a position to separate the wheat from the chaff a long way down the track – perhaps in two or three year's time or even longer by which time the prospects will have either established themselves in the big time or have found their places on the footballing scrap heap.

I decided a long time ago that you need to be wary about some of the claims that are made about certain players at this time of year and while the championships are a good pointer to who will be picked up come draft time, they are not necessarily the be all and end all of ALF recruiting. As an example, I want to look at the National Draft of 2004 and, in particular, at the recruiting approach of the Melbourne Football Club that year.

The Demons had a bumper 2004 but fell away late in the season after at one stage holding top spot. After losing an elimination final, they finished in seventh place which put them in tenth position in the draft order. However, three clubs – Richmond, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs – were all entitled to priority picks so that Melbourne's first selection came in at number 13. The club temporarily held the number 12 pick when it traded Scott Thompson to Adelaide but then shipped that selection off to Richmond via Geelong in the trade deal that netted Brad Ottens to the Cats and Brent Moloney to the Demons. Another club trade saw it take choice number 15 from Sydney in exchange for Darren Jolly. A low level switch of draft positions saw Peter Walsh off to Port Adelaide and Melbourne had its third pick at number 43.

The club surprised many in the football world at the November 2004 National Draft by "going young" and drafting the youngest, second youngest and fourth youngest players in the draft – Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn and Michael Newton with picks 13, 15 and 43. All were tallish players capable of playing in key positions and all were "bottom-aged" meaning they could have had another year in the Under 18 system.

The record also shows that none of the three players selected by Melbourne had taken part in that year's AFL National Under 18 Championships. In fact, the Demons were the only club not to draft any player who participated.

The other 15 clubs concentrated very heavily on graduates from the 2004 AFL National Under 18 Championships. Forty-three of them were drafted in the National Draft, one in the Pre-Season Draft and a further 26 were rookied. Many of those drafted in 2004 have already established a niche at their clubs – names like Deledio, Roughhead, Griffen, Tambling, Franklin, Monfries, Travis Cloke, Sherman (all from the National Draft), Betts (Pre Season Draft) and Pearce (Rookie Draft) are regulars these days. All of them played for their respective states in the Championships.

Of the top 15 draft choices at the national draft, Bate and Dunn were the only ones not selected to take part in the Championships. In other words, Demon recruiter Craig Cameron took a longer term view and used his selections to take players with a fair bit of upside – players who had the capacity for greater development and who might have been picked at a much higher level had they remained in the system for another year.

And that's how it seems to be working out for the Demons.

Matthew Bate, from the Eastern Ranges, spent most of 2005 playing in the VFL with Sandringham and was a member of its premiership team. After showing great promise in this year's pre season nab Cup, he was introduced into the AFL in round five and the young utility with the penetrating left foot has played in every game since with the exception of the match against the Eagles at Subiaco when he was emergency. He is yet to play in a losing Melbourne team and has been super impressive in most of his games.

Lynden Dunn, who spent last year going back and forward between the VFL reserves and seniors, came on strongly in the new season and won his club guernsey a week after Bate. He too, has impressed with his sharpness up forward, holding down a key position in a winning team and scoring at least a goal in every game. With every passing week, the young Demon pair continue to show promise and to gather accolades from the football world.

But what of the third man in this equation? Selected at number 43 from the Murray Bushrangers, Michael Newton was a slightly different proposition to the other two draftees who came from metropolitan Melbourne and were members of opposing TAC Cup Under 18 Grand Final Teams.

Newton, from the small country club Whorouly in Victoria's northeast had been picked in the Vic Country Under 16 team in 2003. He was lightly built but known as a good mark and a player who could play forward or back but wasn't considered by many as a major target in the 2004 draft. Most thought 2005 would be his year.

After being drafted by the Demons he spent the whole year with the Zebra reserves and started there in 2006. He is slowly working his way up and has played a couple of highly encouraging cameo roles with the senior side in the past month. There are big wraps on Newton and some feel that he has every bit of talent as fellow key position forward Dunn. However, coming from the bush, he will need more time to acclimatize and develop his football.

Another draftee that year, Matthew Warnock came up the hard way from the Sandringham Dragons, into the Zebra reserves, from where he gradually claimed senior status and impressed the Demons enough to be listed along with another Murray Bushranger in Brendan Van Schaik in the rookie draft of 2004.

So despite all the hype that surrounds the National Under 18 Championships, Melbourne's policy of looking beyond the square and outside the impressive list of players who contest that competition, looks like paying dividends. Certainly, this is not necessarily the template for all future recruiting policies but given the fact that the club's early choices were outside the top ten, it was a worthwhile exercise in risk taking – although Craig Cameron would probably say that he wasn't taking risks with selecting the likes of Bate and Dunn. After all, Bate was the 2004 TAC Cup Morrish Medallist and Dunn a premiership player with the highly respected and successful Calder Cannons. Another consideration that year was also the depth of the draft. Like 2005 and unlike the current crop, the playing strength of the group at the 2004 championships was not considered as deep as this year's group.