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Stats-file 2019

Skuit
Skuit
in Melbourne Demons

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Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 21, 2019  - Demons vs Pies (MCG)

image.png.20f70fb3ad289f792e8ef49e3f363726.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

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    Kicking Efficiency Comparison - Rnd 9 vs Rnd 21

    Note:  The AFL average is approx 68%.  Obviously defenders would have a higher average, mids lower etc.

    image.thumb.png.efef45dbb747cedb5674520d34944632.png

    * No comparison available as didn't play in both comparative blocks.

    # For some reason i missed Tim Smith's KE% @ Rnd 9.

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    So I read that a PhD student found that you don’t make the top 8 if you have more than 27 games lost from your top ten players in the regular season.  We are at 38.  There are very few exceptions (Richmond this year), but the correlation was incredibly high.  With a very average bottom 6 this year, we had nothing to prop us up.  

    So for 2020, I suggest we need to refresh that bottom 6 significantly, and ensure we keep our top 10 players on the park.  Might help us a bit...

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    Player / Team Stats Form Guide

    (Composite Weighted Averages)

    To Rnd 21, 2019 vs Season 2018

    image.thumb.png.ae21491f033f223ffe89da84070b2d16.png

     

    Edited by Rusty Nails

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    11 players down by more than 20%, and another two down by 19% on last year.  Look at the names: Viney, Brayshaw (Jones), Lewis, Hibbard, TMAc, ANB,Melksham,(Omac) Tim Smith, Garlett, Hannan, Spargo.  Last year their contributions got us to a prelim.  Take these 13 players (more than half a starting 22) and have 20% less value from them in a game where 5% matters, and is it any wonder we are down the toilet this year?  What a horrible reflection in the reality that was (is) 2019.

    This year 11 players scored over 2.5, last year 17. This year 5 players scored greater than 3.0, last year it was 9 players.  Our top end was considerably weaker as well.

    Frost, Hunt and Harmes hold your heads high and proud, only significant positive movers.

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    Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

    Rnd 22, 2019  - Demons vs Swans (MCG)

    image.png.46581d0c3ce83ce86315c15b5313b092.png

    # Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

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    Player / Team Stats Form Guide

    (Composite Weighted Averages)

    To Rnd 22, 2019 vs Season 2018

    image.thumb.png.a41c18e6775c351efe43986d7f6ea540.png

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    Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

    Rnd 23, 2019  - Roos vs Demons (Blundstone)

    image.png.14f7dbd69f5843e03e64ff37b7312db2.png

    # Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

    Tracc's best games for the year (statistically).  Big Maxy's equal best.  He put this same weighted score up on QB against Grundy!  Over 200 SC points in this game which i can't say i've seen anyone score, let alone a Demon.  To put that in some perspective he scored 99 SC points vs Grundy in Rnd 21, Grundy 86.  On QB Maxy scored 153 SC points, Grundy 84.  Big M has clearly taken the honors over Grundy both times this year.  That was some performance from the big guy today.

    A quick summary...

    Maxy - 18 Effectives @ 69.2%, 4 Contested Marks, 10 Clearances, 5 inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 5 Interceptions and 3 Goals.

    Tracc - 22 Effectives @ 88%, 7 Clearances, 7 tackles and 10 Score Involvements.

    Edited by Rusty Nails

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    On 8/12/2019 at 12:39 AM, buck_nekkid said:

    So I read that a PhD student found that you don’t make the top 8 if you have more than 27 games lost from your top ten players in the regular season.  We are at 38.  There are very few exceptions (Richmond this year), but the correlation was incredibly high.  With a very average bottom 6 this year, we had nothing to prop us up.  

    So for 2020, I suggest we need to refresh that bottom 6 significantly, and ensure we keep our top 10 players on the park.  Might help us a bit...

    Choco Williams Sais a year or two back on the radio, the coaches mantra of one soldier out another in, is what coaches have to say, but he basically called it out as total BS, replace 4-5 of your top 8 players with players 23-27 on your list and your stuffed! 

    While we’ve underperformed with what we’ve had available, our injuries and poor off season add up to a bad year, maybe not 5-17, but irrecoverable from a good season perspective.

    Bring on a great pre season, a fit list, good draw, better draft picks and s bit of luck and who knows what 2020 holds!

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    • Like 1
    45 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

    Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

    Rnd 23, 2019  - Roos vs Demons (Blundstone)

    image.png.14f7dbd69f5843e03e64ff37b7312db2.png

    # Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

    Tracc's best games for the year (statistically).  Big Maxy's equal best.  He put this same weighted score up on QB against Grundy!  Over 200 SC points in this game which i can't say i've seen anyone score, let alone a Demon.  To put that in some perspective he scored 99 SC points vs Grundy in Rnd 21, Grundy 86.  On QB Maxy scored 153 SC points, Grundy 84.  Big M has clearly taken the honors over Grundy both times this year.  That was some performance from the big guy today.

    A quick summary...

    Maxy - 18 Effectives @ 69.2%, 4 Contested Marks, 10 Clearances, 5 inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 5 Interceptions and 3 Goals.

    Tracc - 22 Effectives @ 88%, 7 Clearances, 7 tackles and10 Score Involvements.

    Observers keep saying Stretch is not up to it! Do these stats mean anything? 21 disposals this week at 95% effciency, yet he is said to be non AFL standard amongst a squad of players who routinely butcher the ball when they get it. 

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    10 hours ago, Earl Hood said:

    Observers keep saying Stretch is not up to it! Do these stats mean anything? 21 disposals this week at 95% effciency, yet he is said to be non AFL standard amongst a squad of players who routinely butcher the ball when they get it. 

    Stretch is interesting Earl.  Most of the other weighted score results (not always but mostly) tend to fit in somewhat with what i see on the day.  Is Stretch an outlier or maybe negative bias from myself / others?

    In game (watching), i don't see him having much of an impact but might be the pre-determined bias on my part.  Maybe he's changing/improving (or has already improved) but from past experience (not this match) the impression he's given is that he's getting to a fair few balls but mostly dishing off to just about anyone, especially lateral, as his first go to.  Plenty of uncontested that's for sure and the delivery is no doubt first class but how much risk is involved in those disposals if they are going to players in non-damaging places and/or they're about to get pole axed shortly after receiving?  Does he take on the game in other ways that you would expect from a mostly 'outside' player?  Line breaking run?  Looking up field as first priority in traffic and taking the risk trying to get it to a loose player or to his favoured side with a 45 kick through traffic (better from a team's POV)?

    Maybe i'm seeing things and right off the money and the stats are capturing the more accurate story of improvement.  Wouldn't be the first time.  And this is where stats are handy as it does make you question and review potential biases that might be ingrained.

    Would need to watch the match again to see whether there's any validity in that impression from his match y'day.  Do i have the time or desire....ummm... nup.  Although an old Norf mate is coming over this arvo for a few frothies.  If he insists on watching the replay (lives OS and just visiting) then i might.

    Maybe others would like to add something if they watched his game a little closer.

    Edited by Rusty Nails

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    • Like 2

    Player / Team Stats Form Guide

    (Composite Weighted Averages)

    Season  2019 vs Season 2018

    Here you go fellow minions.  The year that wasn't!  Only eight players either improved from last season or kept within 5% (not a major difference IMV)...

    Frost the most improved and biggest gain up an amazing 25.7%.  The only others who clocked up a positive...Harmes, Hunt and Stretch.  Those within 5% ... Salem, Weid, Big M & JWags.

    The overall team average score down 14.25% on season 2018!

    The year was that bad that some improved their ranking on last year while still going backwards (statistically).   That does not necessarily equate to a poor or negative year in all cases as some may have been played out of position (eg., Fritschkreig) for the bulk of the season or asked to carry out a completely different role vs 2018.  ie., Less stats accumulated but still carrying out the role effectively from a team POV (run with / lock down / time spent in the ruck when not usually expected etc).

    Nonetheless a bog ordinary year...Roll on 2020!

    image.thumb.png.0f160dcb4a3471a19a24a0d6bafe4466.png

    Note: If you add approx 0.80 for hit outs to advantage for big Maxy this would have him sitting in 2nd.

    Edited by Rusty Nails

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