AFLW: Rd 5 vs GWS

[darkhorse72 1,920]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Sadly, it will take a miracle for us to get to top 2 of Conf A.  Ladder is:

While statistically possible, it is very unlikely that we will be in top 2 of Conf A to play in finals.

Its a crazy finals system but not much we can do about it. 

Bit of a joke really.  Worse considering the margin we lost those 2 games.

[deespicable me 1,487]

Don't give up yet, we can still get there. 

[DeeSpencer 25,723]

4 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Sadly, it will take a miracle for us to get to top 2 of Conf A.  Ladder is:

While statistically possible, it is very unlikely that we will be in top 2 of Conf A to play in finals.

Its a crazy finals system but not much we can do about it. 

Define very unlikely?

Freo play North in the last round, assuming they both win next week the winner and loser of their match in the last round will finish on 24 and 20 points respectively. With the loser on 20 points and probably a percentage similar to what they are on now given they'd have won 1 game and lost 1 game.

Adelaide will move to 20 points with a win next week and we will move to 16 points if we beat the Dogs. Then if we beat the Crows in the final round it will come down to percentage to determine 2nd place.

Hypothetically if both teams win 50-30 next week then the Crows will be points for/points against  319/181 and we'll be 282/175

A 41-30 win in the final round we have us 323/205 (157.56%) and the Crows 349/222 (157.21%). 

Win by a decent margin next week and we'll be looking at only having to beat the Crows by a small margin. 

[chookrat 4,257]

4 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Define very unlikely?

Freo play North in the last round, assuming they both win next week the winner and loser of their match in the last round will finish on 24 and 20 points respectively. With the loser on 20 points and probably a percentage similar to what they are on now given they'd have won 1 game and lost 1 game.

Adelaide will move to 20 points with a win next week and we will move to 16 points if we beat the Dogs. Then if we beat the Crows in the final round it will come down to percentage to determine 2nd place.

Hypothetically if both teams win 50-30 next week then the Crows will be points for/points against  319/181 and we'll be 282/175

A 41-30 win in the final round we have us 323/205 (157.56%) and the Crows 349/222 (157.21%). 

Win by a decent margin next week and we'll be looking at only having to beat the Crows by a small margin. 

Absolutely agree we are well in it. All we nees to do is win both games and gain percentage on Adelaide and we will finish top two. I reckon we are a good chance for the flag and the ladies will launch from our big win over GWS. Our destiny is in our hands. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,963]

8 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Define very unlikely?

My conclusion is based on probable round 6 results:  

1. North and Freo to comfortably win their games so one of them end up in the top 2 after their round 7 'showdown'. 

North will probably thrash Coll which will give them a huge %'age again (it was 201% before this week).

2. The Crows to thrash GWS building on their 178.1%. 

3.  Dees to beat Bulldogs but by how much?  Not sure it will be enough to bridge the %'age gap with the Crows or North after round 6. 

4. So I expect to go into the final round vs Crows with a larger %'age gap than now.  Also, they are a formidable outfit and can't see them letting us have a big win when a finals spot is up for grabs.  They will know they don't have to win.  They also know we are not accurate kicks for goal.  Defend, defend, defend, will be their mantra.

5.  If North thrash Coll and gain a huge %'age we will have to better that (even it they lose to Freo) to make top 2. 

Hence the conclusion 'statistically possible but very unlikely' that we will make the top 2. 

I desperately hope I am wrong as we have been a very good side for the last 3 years and I think we deserve to be there.  If it wasn't for the silly finals structure we would be.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[Dees_In_October 3,388]

I actually can't deal with how absurd the conference system is and how unfair it would be if we end up better than most of conference B and still don't get in.

Too bad we softened up North for the Crows. I'm not even joking, we seriously did! Not to take away from the Crows' form, but North looked worn down.

Anyway, I'm trying to focus on the continued development of our team (in the hope they don't all get poached next season!)... and let the rest play out as it may.

Awesome game by Maddie Gay. I remember someone on here asked about her earlier in the season and I hadn't seen much from her yet, but clearly, she was building her way into a new team and has been great the last two weeks. It's good to have some other players getting prolonged opportunities in the midfield, not just in Daisy's absence, but I also feel like O'Dea's role has changed in that regard. I liked the dash shown by Guerin, another Maddie I think, and hope she gets another game next week.

Probably my favourite part of our effort yesterday was the team commitment to preventing Staunton getting a roll on in the last quarter. Every time she got the ball, there was a Dee right onto her and sometimes two (or three!) trying to either surround her to prevent the side-step or take her down. They weren't always completely successful - although I think Zanker succeeded towards the end - but it felt like a mini-competition within the game at one point. I noticed Smith, in particular, being very aware of that particular danger.

Fingers crossed for goal kicking accuracy in the last two games...

[Lucifers Hero 39,963]

9 minutes ago, Dees_In_October said:

Probably my favourite part of our effort yesterday was the team commitment to preventing Staunton getting a roll on in the last quarter. Every time she got the ball, there was a Dee right onto her and sometimes two (or three!) trying to either surround her to prevent the side-step or take her down. They weren't always completely successful - although I think Zanker succeeded towards the end - but it felt like a mini-competition within the game at one point. I noticed Smith, in particular, being very aware of that particular danger.

If we had done that with Emma Kearney last week we would easily have beaten North and would be a shoe in for a top 2 spot.  Letting Kearney play her own game and run around unattended for the whole 4 quarters cost us the North match and most probably a finals spot.

[Meggs 595]

20 minutes ago, Dees_In_October said:

Awesome game by Maddie Gay. I remember someone on here asked about her earlier in the season and I hadn't seen much from her yet, but clearly, she was building her way into a new team and has been great the last .

Fingers crossed for goal kicking accuracy in the last two games...

Yes that was me.  Maddie’s best game for us.  She is becoming important as another mid who can go forward.  Hore did well again and Cunningham and Newman kept providing great leading options up the ground. And Lauren Pearce continues her fine season.  And yes we have even list which will unfortunately be diluted to support Dill’s rapid expansion.  Anyway for us to make finals in 2019 we must win the last 2 games...go girls!

 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,816]

11 minutes ago, Meggs said:

Yes that was me.  Maddie’s best game for us.  She is becoming important as another mid who can go forward.  Hore did well again and Cunningham and Newman kept providing great leading options up the ground. And Lauren Pearce continues her fine season.  And yes we have even list which will unfortunately be diluted to support Dill’s rapid expansion.  Anyway for us to make finals in 2019 we must win the last 2 games...go girls!

 

I give Gillon a pass on this one. The AFL needs AFLW to be expanded as quickly as possible to give supporters of all (male) AFL teams something to support. Currently, my friends who support teams such as St Kilda and Essendon have no interest in AFLW, and I can't blame them. Yes, it's a fine line between expanding too quickly and too slowly, and there are good ways and bad ways to progress, but I think the purpose behind his strategy is sound.