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2017 Post Mortem


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On 04/09/2017 at 4:02 PM, jnrmac said:

It didn't work did it. He failed at his job of getting them ready for games. 11 times we lost the first quarters and we only kicked 5 goals once in an opening stanza....

Maybe we need some kind of experimental pre-game electro stimulation regime.

Edited by Wrecked Owl Dees Function
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On 9/4/2017 at 11:02 PM, jnrmac said:

It didn't work did it. He failed at his job of getting them ready for games. 11 times we lost the first quarters and we only kicked 5 goals once in an opening stanza....

yep...got a lot of work to do there .  On the plus side...there is a LOT of scope there.

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On 27 August 2017 at 8:08 PM, Dr.D said:

the issue isnt the list. Its the mental application that is hot some weeks and cold the next. Spend the off season understanding why and then fix it.

I disagree with the list part.  The list is a big reason why we didn't break into finals as our bottom 6 in many matches were just too far off the pace at AFL level.  But it's also the way we went about our set ups and game style all year with much of that blame falling on Goody.

He never got the mix right at the selection table consistently enough either and gave too many chances to players who had shown they added no value whatsoever in previous attempts in particular JKH, Weids and Wags who showed they had done nothing to warrant repeat entries into the seniors.

In addition Goody was beaten at the selection table again by Buckley in the last and most critical round, when Buckley chose to go extra tall in the last match and we brought in Salem instead of Frost.  We also needed another tall forward and were sadly lacking once Hulk went down.  As to who that extra tall should have been well maybe we lack that option and hence Goody was beaten by a strategy that he couldn't counter completely, again due to list limitations.

We (and Goody) were also crueled by injuries (again!) throughout the year which no one could help and the fact that two of those critical injuries to Maxy and Watts resulted in them having little impact once they did make it back.  They both need to look in the mirror on that one.  I personally would have dropped big Maxy at about the 3 game (back from injury) mark once It was obvious he was only going at about 70% and brought Spencil in.  Goody had too much faith here in my Op and needed to send a huge message and give an opportunity to Spencil to see what he might offer instead.

Goody also persists with his rediculous plus 2 in defence which IMO gives the Op a leg up in the middle, taking away our biggest strength, resulting in us losing too many first halves and having to chase from behind far too often which is too difficult in today's fast paced game style.  This method might hold up if could find one or two extra super quick players off half back who used the ball more effectively than the likes of the Macs, Vince and Wags (when being played) but certainly doesn't work when you lack the extra class, speed and a bit of height down back.  In other words it might work in future but is completely useless  with the current list (defensively) AND we also lose our advantage in the middle where we are a top 6 team when both Viney & Jones are in the team and Maxy is firing.

In addition we lack an extra tall or two who can take contested grabs around the ground more often, especially with long kicks down the line where we are so often beaten in the air.   One of the reasons I would have happily kept Howe over Garland if there was that option.

And last but not least we still lack a consistent, potential game breaking, superstar.  We might still find one though (or maybe two) out of Clarry and/or Tracc.  So all is not lost there but I'll believe it when I see it year after year.

Hopefully Goody has learned some serious lessons from this year.  IF he comes out with a steady as she goes game style strategy next year and doesn't look to replace our weakest 6 to 8 players then personally I think we will just tread water again next year (ie, no finals ...again!)

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On 2 September 2017 at 1:09 AM, Pates said:

Someone with the patience to go through the stats may be able to prove me wrong but I feel like one of our biggest issues this year is not that we don't win enough quarters or are competitive enough, it's that when we do switch off we switch off badly. We allow a team to dominate a quarter to the point that it is lost in that one quarter. 

The fact that we won 3 out of 4 quarters on the weekend but still lost is ridiculous. From quarter time we were playing catch up and the Pies were able to keep us at arms length the whole time afterwards. 

Given almost the week to ponder it I'm able to breathe again and look at things calmly (don't get me wrong I still have fits of rage/devastation about it). For me it's too easy for us to point to the old "oh we're a young team" deal, this starts from the leadership group and they are very culpable for what happened in the last 3-6 rounds. I say 3-6 rounds because each of those games were opportunities, I'll give the boys the GWS game as they are a good team but Port, North, Saints, Lions, and of course the Pies all had opportunities that were given up because we weren't ruthless or hungry enough. Each game we just needed to do enough to get the job done, and in the North & Pies case it wasn't even that. 

That comes from the leadership group not pushing the standard. Collectively we were 10.9 to 3.3 at quarter time against teams who theoretically "didn't have anything to play for" and we were supposed to be better than. That is an out and out disgrace, and that above everything else needs to be rectified immediately. 

My only hope from this utter debarcle is that the players will use it to drive them forward, not hold them back. 

 

On 2 September 2017 at 11:12 AM, beelzebub said:

Much of this is actually the first quarter invariably. We've been jumped any number of times. If you have a squiz at my revised outcomes  above ( uses only LAST 3 qtrs of games )  you can see how that would have vastly affected/changed for the better our outcomes.

It also makes something of a mockery on the reliance by some..even  in the game, on this notion all is going well ...we're winning more quarters. Thats far too simplistic almost to the point of irrelevance.  Many a time a team wins just the ONE quarter..sometimes they only lead for 5 mins...It's whos at the finish line first. The statisticians have made an industry and a livelihood out of selling snake-oil

All you really need to do is play football to your ability for over than 100 min journey. Do that properly and all the minutae will look after itsself for those that can be bothered.

Im reminded of F1 and the teams who's cars and drivers are quite competitive...but they just cant get off the line quick enough..Race over really.

 

On 1 September 2017 at 9:23 PM, Diamond_Jim said:

Very interesting and damning analysis BB.

Raises so many questions including why our coaches have not developed a strategy to address this shortcoming.

 

On 1 September 2017 at 5:59 PM, jnrmac said:

For you: 

Saints 8 shots to 5

Blues 4 shots to 5

Cats 7 shots to 6

Free 5 shots to 7

Tigers 7 shots to 4

Ess 4 shots to 6

Hawth 9 shots to 2

Adel 5 shots to 4

Kangas 13 to 7

Suns 9 to 3

Coll 5 to 7

Dogs 1 to 6

West Coast 7 to 4

Doesn't bolster your argument at all. Our first quarters have been shite all year. Look at the two bottom clubs at the time Hawthorn and North. Disgraceful. Want to deny there are mental problems that aren't being addressed about our starts?

Nice pot shot. Try again.

Goody's plus 2 defence ensures we are always trying to bring up a rear guard action after a centre square bounce  and starting from behind.  Reason being we give our opponents, who are more often than not weaker in the mid field, a leg up in the mid field, by starting two players off the back of the square instead of on the outside (wings).  Allows the Op to have at least one or two FREE outliers adjacent to the bounce and effectively free to run the ball into our forward line if they win the middle contest and spread (share) the ball a split second quicker to those outliers than our plus 2s are able to effect that contest, which they do roughly 50 percent of the time (approx).

Change this game style and we might win some more games we are expected to win against weaker or ordinary opponents and win much bigger as well, running away with games more often towards the end as we won't be chasing tails after a poor first quarter or so and trailing at half time.

We have a top 6 mid when Viney, Jones and Maxy are in the team and all on.  But we shoot ourselves in the foot with a very ordinary plus 2 strategy that should only be used when protecting a reasonable lead late in a quarter or a potential winning lead late in the match.

Change this game style (taking back our advantage in the mid field over most clubs) and trade well in the off season and we play finals in 2018.  Ignore it and continue in blind faith, and we won't.

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