A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

Ha ha!

Rostropovich is the other 3YO* ...  I followed the fortunes of the horse during the European summer and the horse was running in SW or WFA Group 1 & Group 2 races to very good effect.  Was running against class WFA distance performers in Latrobe,  Poet's Word,  Crystal Ocean,  Old Persian & Saxon Warrior but because it is a 3YO,  it gets into the Cup at the lightweight. 

Many of the other European Cup entrants have qualified as slightly older horses through the Group 2 & Group 3 Handicaps in Europe.  Up until tomorrow Rostropovich has been carrying 57kgs up to 60kgs in its races - it has 51kgs in the Cup and drops 5kgs from the Cox Plate.

It has been reported that Tom Waterhouse has backed the horse to win $1Million today and I have it definitely included in my exotics.  Currently 27-1 which is overs in my opinion.  It's Cox Plate run might have been a training gallop to get the horse primed ? Trained by Aiden O'Brien the master trainer. 

Cross Counter is the other 3YO and if the horse is healthy,  it can get into the finish as well.  Of the Australian contingent,  Youngstar is the standout. 

But it is a very tough race this year with at least 10-12 realistic chances Wadda. 

*n.b.  Cross Counter & Rostropovich are Northern Hemisphere 3YO's and even though they're listed as 4YO's here,  they are not weighted as they otherwise might be. 

Thanx Macca, thats really good info. Since im in Croatia, i just adjust the name to Rostropivic and it becomes the omen bet!  After the lightweight 3 yo from last year, that everyone said no way can a 3yo win a Cup....well, it is what it is.

So Toms had a little flutter huh? Dads not getting the paintbrush out again is he??

Yep there are 10 or 12 chances, thats for sure and a lot will just depend on the run of the race, so keep an eye on the experienced jockeys.

[Macca 16,959]

Racenet Form - Melbourne Cup  3200m  $7.6Million  Group 1

 

1. Best Solution (6)

(IRE)

 

J: Pat Cosgrave

 

 

T: Saeed bin Suroor

 

 

W: 57.5kg

 

Best Odds: $14

 

COMMENT: Caulfield Cup winner who produced a career best to win the race. The Caulfield Cup is the traditional lead up, but in recent years it hasn't been the right form reference. 57.5kg is the ask, but he relaxes, he can sustain a run and is in form so there is enough boxes ticked to respect him.

 

 

 

2. The Cliffsofmoher (9)

(IRE)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Aidan O'Brien

 

 

W: 56.5kg

 

Best Odds: $16

 

COMMENT: I thought Bowman gave him every chance in the Caulfield Cup but wanted to lay in badly when put under pressure. I can't see him turning the tables on Best Solution and is a clear query at 3200m.

 

 

 

3. Magic Circle (17)

(IRE)

 

J: Corey Brown

 

 

T: Ian Williams

 

 

W: 56kg

 

Best Odds: $9.50

 

COMMENT: This horse has clearly turned the corner since joining Ian Williams, winning 2/2 by six lengths each time where he has produced a slashing turn of foot which is needed to win the Melbourne Cup. Has looked sharp in work at Werribee. Stays and has a turn of foot. That's a winning formula for the Melbourne Cup. Looks the horse to beat.

 

 

 

4. Chestnut Coat (4)

(JPN)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Yoshito Yahagi

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

Best Odds: $41

 

COMMENT: Clear forgive run in the Caulfield Cup. Wide no cover for the trip and was a beaten horse on the turn. Didn't handle the wet track either. The step up in trip and on a bigger track, he can bounce back for sure as long as the rain stays away.

 

 

 

5. Muntahaa (13)

(IRE)

 

J: Jim Crowley

 

 

T: John Gosden

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

Best Odds: $10

 

COMMENT: He's the horse on everyone's lips. Visually, the Ebor win was outstanding. But what did he beat? There has been 21 subsequent runs from the race for just one win since. That's the negative, plus the form prior was just fair, and that he's a highly strung animal, but if he puts everything together and gets things to suit, he can certainly win.

 

 

 

6. Sound Check (16)

(GER)

 

J: Jordan Childs

 

 

T: Michael Moroney

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $41

 

COMMENT: He was another forgive in the Caulfield Cup. He was out the back and pulling his head off. Looked drunk around the turn but balanced up and his last 100m was encouraging. Big track, 3200m and a more genuine tempo could see him cause problems.

 

 

 

7. Who Shot Thebarman (18)

(NZ)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Chris Waller

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

Best Odds: $67

 

COMMENT: A grand old campaigner who will likely sit on speed and make his own luck. Would be a shock to see him win, but his Moonee Valley Cup run was encouraging and I think he's a top 10 contender at big odds.

 

 

 

8. Ace High (22)

 

J: TBC

 

T: David Payne

 

 

W: 55kg

 

Best Odds: $81

 

COMMENT: Put a line through his run in the Caulfield Cup. Leading isn't his go, he wasn't happy on the surface and regular rider Tye Angland wasn't on. He will be much better at Flemington where he won the Derby last year. Two miles will be no issue if ridden with cover and will appreciate any rain that hits the track in lead up to the race. Can bounce back.

 

 

 

9. Marmelo (10)

(GB)

 

J: Hugh Bowman

 

 

T: Hughie Morrison

 

 

W: 55kg

 

Best Odds: $17

 

COMMENT: Horses who fail in a previous attempt at a Cup, generally struggle to improve at subsequent attempts. But this horse has got the ability to win so i am happy to give him another shot. If the race was a few hundred metres shorter he would be the horse to beat so if its a slow tempo he will be very hard to hold out. One of the main contenders.

 

 

 

10. Avilius (11)

(GB)

 

J: Glyn Schofield

 

 

T: James Cummings

 

 

W: 54.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $13

 

COMMENT: Earned his spot in the field via a narrow win in the Bart Cummings. Well held in the Cox Plate and IMO looks a clear risk at 3200m. He has been a up a fair while as well so it would take a great training effort from James Cummings. If he runs the distance he is right in the race but a risk at the price.

 

 

 

11. Yucatan (23)

(IRE)

 

J: James McDonald

 

 

T: Aidan O’Brien

 

 

W: 54.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $5.00

 

COMMENT: If he runs up to the Herbert Power effort, he will go very close. But the price is very short and you're being asked to take $4.50 to see if he can run 3200m. There is enough evidence to suggest he may not and at the price, you couldn't back him. But anything similar to that win and he'll look the winner. Just needs to run the trip.

 

 

 

12. Auvray (1)

(FR)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Richard Freedman

 

 

W: 54kg

 

Best Odds: $126

 

COMMENT: Hasn't raced in just under a month and was plain in what looked a weak race. Happy to let him go through to the keeper.

 

 

 

13. Finche (15)

(GB)

 

J: Zac Purton

 

 

T: Chris Waller

 

 

W: 54kg

 

 

Best Odds: $26

 

COMMENT: I think he is 6-12 months away from showing his best. Geelong Cup run was good but I don't think that's the right form for the Melbourne Cup. Not this year anyway.

 

 

 

14. Red Cardinal (5)

(IRE)

 

J: Damien Oliver

 

 

T: Darren Weir

 

 

W: 54kg

 

 

Best Odds: $101

 

COMMENT: Visually, the Moonee Valley Cup run was just plain, but it was a rock hard track and he hates that. Wants a track with give in it and the forecast is for a shower or two. If the rain comes his chances get a massive boost.

 

 

 

15. Vengeur Masque (2)

(IRE)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Michael Moroney

 

 

W: 54kg

 

Best Odds: $71

 

COMMENT: Handy stayer for Michael Moroney but I thought he was just fair in the Caulfield Cup. Would need to produce a career best run do go close and I don't think he has that in him.

 

 

 

16. Ventura Storm (7)

 

J: TBC

 

T: D & B Hayes and T Dabernig

 

 

W: 54kg

 

Best Odds: $31

 

COMMENT: Got his way into form with a Moonee Valley Cup win, but I'm putting that down largely to an absolute peach of a steer from Mark Zahra. He does normally save his best for Flemington though. Can he win? I doubt it, but he should be included in multiples.

 

 

 

17. A Prince Of Arran (20)

(GB)

 

J: Michael Walker

 

 

T: Charlie Fellowes

 

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $17

 

COMMENT: It is always tough to win the Lexus Stakes on a Saturday then back-up to win the Melbourne Cup on the Tuesday but the horses who try always run well. Of the Lexus winners in recent years A Prince Of Arran looks like one who can win the Cup with plenty of improvement in him as well as being a rock hard stayer. Big player

 

 

 

18. NAKEETA (3)

(GB)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Iain Jardine

 

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $126

 

COMMENT: Just snuck into the Field late on Saturday when Red Verdon was ruled out of the race. She was the last one into the race and will likely be the last one home in the race. Pass

 

 

 

19. Sir Charles Road (14)

 

J: TBC

 

T: O’Sullivan and Scott

 

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $126

 

COMMENT: Was game in the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday but that race was won by a near rank outsider. Here to make up the numbers.

 

 

 

20. Zacada (24)

 

J: TBC

 

T: TBC

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $201

 

COMMENT: Had no chance the way the track played in the Geelong Cup but his form prior isn't good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

 

 

 

21. Runaway (12)

 

J: TBC

 

T: G Waterhouse and A Bott

 

 

W: 52kg

 

 

Best Odds: $41

 

COMMENT: Aided by bias to win the Geelong Cup, but he led all the way and will be out of trouble on speed. Leading all the way in a Melbourne Cup is saved for champions.

 

 

 

22. Youngstar (8)

 

J: Craig Williams

 

 

T: Chris Waller

 

 

W: 51.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $17

 

COMMENT: Thought she was the best run in the Caulfield Cup. Loved the way she attacked the line off a moderate. Start prior ran similar splits to Winx in the Turnbull. Very confident she'll run the two miles and is clearly in the mix.

 

 

 

23. Cross Counter (19)

(GB)

 

J: Kerrin McEvoy

 

 

T: Charlie Appleby

 

 

W: 51kg

 

 

Best Odds: $10

 

COMMENT: Very progressive gelding for Charlie Appleby. Thought he was very good during the York Carnival when beaten a lip. Has had a setback or two at Werribee but appears over them. Have to respect the stable and their record down under.

 

 

 

 

24. Rostropovich (21)

(IRE)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Aidan O’Brien

 

 

W: 51kg

 

 

Best Odds: $26

 

COMMENT: He was just okay in the Cox Plate. Sat on speed and fought on well. But his form at 2400m is suspect, so has to be a query at 3200m despite being trained by Aidan O'Brien.

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Raining at the track as i go to bed. Good luck fellas have a great day.

[Macca 16,959]

The track has been downgraded to a Soft5 heading almost certainly to a Soft6 and maybe even a Soft7 or Heavy8.  The rain is still falling.

They ran slowish 59.61 for the 1000m in the first race and the winning jockey Mark Zahra was saying there was a lot of surface water and that the track was already racing a bit like a Heavy8. 

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

Got the first winner. Can’t complain with that start ?

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

8 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Got the first winner. Can’t complain with that start ?

Nice Gorg, all I got back was a bonus bet for running 3rd. Tip for the Cup?

[Diamond_Jim 12,567]

one of the driest winters on record and we get a wet Cup.

Fantastic to have the rain but such a bad day to have it.

The race course train station has been closed due to flooding and the trains are stopping at the showgrounds which means a walk of over a kilometre in the rain

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

6 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Nice Gorg, all I got back was a bonus bet for running 3rd. Tip for the Cup?

Magic circle has always been mine, it’s now come into equal favourite.

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,780]

Surely we Demon fans must be attracted to Prince of Arran......those colours!!!

Meets Yucatan on better weight terms than the last time they met. Apparently  Prince was boxed in a bit early in that run, though Yucatan looked very impressive in the run home.

Cross Counter has good colours too, and is Richo's tip(or was it Dr Turf?)

 

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

1 minute ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

Surely we Demon fans must be attracted to Prince of Arran......those colours!!!

Meets Yucatan on better weight terms than the last time they met. Apparently  Prince was boxed in a bit early in that run, though Yucatan looked very impressive in the run home.

Cross Counter has good colours too, and is Richo's tip(or was it Dr Turf?)

 

I put a small amount on Prince and also runaway, got a boxed trifecta with 1, 3, 11, 23.

[Macca 16,959]

Track upgraded to a Soft7 so the better favoured horses in the cup are at least running on better ground.   Most of the European horses will be familiar with these sort of conditions anyway. 

The scratchings at the meeting dropped off 2 hours ago so that tells us something as well. 

[Macca 16,959]

They ran 01:23.61 for the 1400m in race 7 and that time is rather quick for a Soft7 ... more like a Soft6 time or even a Soft5 time.  The track ratings at Flemington,  Caulfield & Moonee Valley are different to most other courses because of the drainage.

Edit:  Now upgraded to a Soft6 but the middle of the track looks to have the better ground so the swoopers have every chance.

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,780]

3 hours ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

Surely we Demon fans must be attracted to Prince of Arran......those colours!!!

Meets Yucatan on better weight terms than the last time they met. Apparently  Prince was boxed in a bit early in that run, though Yucatan looked very impressive in the run home.

Cross Counter has good colours too, and is Richo's tip(or was it Dr Turf?)

 

Two  out of three aint bad!

red and Blue in 2019!

[layzie 33,793]

Terrible cup, worst in centuries. Stiffed out of $120, poor Marmelo. 

[Macca 16,959]

Beware the injured athlete hey ... Cross Counter too good!

2 in a row from the 3YO's from the Northern Hemisphere.  What do they say ... Once might be a fluke,  twice is a trend and 3 times is a habit. 

It was a great win by the horse ... came from about near last on the final turn.  McEvoy timed his run perfectly. 

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

Got prince of Arran, wife was on Marmello. 

Got the sweep at the pub with Cross Counter so didn’t have it in anything other than the trifecta but the sweep paid well.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

37 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

Two  out of three aint bad!

red and Blue in 2019!

He doesn’t have the colours but Tom Melbourne in the next is overdue for some success and a change of luck. Last won in March of 2016.

[Macca 16,959]

16 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

He doesn’t have the colours but Tom Melbourne in the next is overdue for some success and a change of luck. Last won in March of 2016.

It's time for a name change DZ ... and with your high-level contacts you're tasked with getting the connections to stop embarrassing the Melbourne name with the horse having so many lacklustre performances of late!  ?

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

14 minutes ago, Macca said:

It's time for a name change DZ ... and with your high-level contacts you're tasked with getting the connections to stop embarrassing the Melbourne name with the horse having so many lacklustre performances of late!  ?

Haha Macca, they tried the old pattern of making the pace today to no avail. Poor old Tom, broken horse from all those past seconds. 

[Macca 16,959]

2 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Haha Macca, they tried the old pattern of making the pace today to no avail. Poor old Tom, broken horse from all those past seconds. 

So many horses just lose their zest & ability from one season to the next or from the Autumn to the Spring ... it often happens to mares but once the males get to about 8 that often spells the end.  And not too many horses break the $1Million mark so the horse has done very well for the connections.  I've won a bit on the horse in the exotics so I don't feel let down by the horse in any way

If they do retire the horse there's loads of other functions for the horse in retirement.  Maybe we'll see the horse in the Autumn for one last go at it.

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

Bowman banned for a month after cup ride.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

24 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Bowman banned for a month after cup ride.

Thanks, went looking for the article. Long ban.

McEvoy also fined $3000 for using the whip four more times than the permitted amount in the last 400m on Cross Counter. I wonder if he’ll  go on a payment plan.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

19 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Thanks, went looking for the article. Long ban.

McEvoy also fined $3000 for using the whip four more times than the permitted amount in the last 400m on Cross Counter. I wonder if he’ll  go on a payment plan.

Gold.

I got the quinella, so cant complain i guess. Missed the tri by leaving out Prince of Arran, didnt know it had Melbourne colors as i went to bed before those posts went up, or i may have thrown it in. But you cant have them all. Pity about the rain. Ace High had a good race till the turn and the distance and wet track beat it in the end. Hell be back.

Was that the drought breaker for Godolphin? Their first cup??

Edited November 6, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

11 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Gold.

I got the quinella, so cant complain i guess. Missed the tri by leaving out Prince of Arran, didnt know it had Melbourne colors as i went to bed before those posts went up, or i may have thrown it in. But you cant have them all. Pity about the rain. Ace High had a good race till the turn and the distance and wet track beat it in the end. Hell be back.

Was that the drought breaker for Godolphin? Their first cup??

Quinella paid ok Wadda. Cross Counter was last at one stage. 

It was a good day here with family, food and drinks. Had a win on Cross Counter and the day could have been better if we didn’t miss the last leg of the quaddie. We ran second and third in the final leg. The approximates were around 10k for those picks and we had a decent percentage of it, but like you said, we can’t complain. 

Yes, Godolphin’s first.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Macca 16,959]

And of course there's always the Kyneton Cup tomorrow as a prelude to the Oaks on Thursday ... DK Weir has 4 horses running around in the event including the top 3 in the betting line. 

Kyneton Cup 2000m $125k Wed 4.40pm