AFL Round 18

[45HG 1,539]

Essendon v Hawthorn

Form: Impressive v Very good

Head to Head: Hawks with the last 3 (average of 58 points)

Eye on the Bombers: Essendon continue to dispel the doubters and continued on their winning way, again beating the Giants by 39 points. However, they now face a troubling patch of matches that could (coinciding with the findings from the ASADA investigation) destroy their season. The Hawks have been a bogie team of late for Essendon and they then face Collingwood, West Coast, North, Carlton and Richmond. Worryingly for the Bombers, they have looked meek out of the middle in the past few weeks since Watson went down and may finally pay for it this week. Midfielders like Stanton and Heppell will need to play out of their skin and they’ll be desparate for Carlisle to continue this AA form (especially if Buddy returns).

Eye on the Hawks: The Hawks will be licking their lips for this game. Of course, the Hawks have only lost to the Cats this year, but their form hasn’t been as intimidating as last year’s. I think that the Hawks are looking for a good team to front up against and they’ll enjoy the opportunity to go toe to toe with another top 4 side. They’ve enjoyed playing Essendon of late and should be too strong across the field. If they get their aggression right, they’ll be a shoe-in. Hawthorn have won their 15 matches comfortably - by an avaerage of 39.9 points.

Verdict: I see this only going one way. The manner could vary - Essendon could come out hard and go close through the first two quarters while Hawthorn ease away toward the end or Hawthorn could come out and blitz the Bombers. They have so much speed and hardness through the middle that it’ll be hard for the Bombers to match. Without Watson they’ll be chasing tail from the start and the Hawks will enjoy Etihad after having a couple of Friday night practices of late.

Tip: Hawks by 42

Gold Coast v Carlton

Form: Irrepressible v Not great

Head to head: The Suns ruined Carlton’s (and Ratten’s) year in this fixture 2012. Split 1-1.

Eye on the Suns: Wow. What can be said? This team screams impressive. They’re tough, fun, flairy and well lead. You can’t keep them out of the clearances with all of their dominant ruckmen and you certainly can’t keep their skipper out of the action. Just when it seemed their season was petering out (albeit with some plucky performances) they produced their best win in their short history. And oh boy, they’d love to go back to back. Indeed, winning this could lead into a soft finale for the Coasters with 4 winnable games at the back-end and an even ledger at the end of the year. I can’t be bothered with a finals predictor but it doesn’t really matter, this team is going to be huge.

Eye on the Blues: The Dees have been trash and the Lions have been deceptive, but is this mob this biggest disappointment of the season? 8-8 is not where many picked this mob - especially considering that they should be 7-9 after last week’s suicidal display by the Roos (shock horror!). While they’ve pushed every team they’ve played, they’ve never really looked on the money. They’ve only won 4 games by over 5 goals - against the hapless Dees and Giants, fallen Saints and a Walkerless, and otherwise undermanned, Crows. In all honesty, Carlton have only had one good win this year and that came 14 rounds ago against the Eagles. This isn’t the sort of game you would rule them out of, but it’s also the exact game you expect them to lose. Not only did they lose it last year, but they’re facing a disciplined team on the road who are hard at the footy. A tough run in to the finals means that this is an absolute must-win for the Bluebaggers.

Verdict: I think I’m still stuck in 2011-12 where it’s laughable to tip the Suns. But I’ve come around. They were a little lucky last week (though they made a lot of their own luck, I think) but Collingwood are a better side than the Blues. Gold Coast are playing with absolute confidence and will be itching to back up their big win. Gold Coast may live to regret a few disappointing performances this year as 5 more wins may see them just miss out on finals. All that said, Carlton are certainly not without a shot. Their speedy outsiders and dangerous goalscorers liken them to Adelaide in my mind, a team that accounted for Gold Coast comfortably only 4 weeks ago. Instinct says Gold Coast, brain says Carlton, heart says Gold Coast.

Tip: Gold Coast by 5

Melbourne v North Melbourne

Form: Better than it’s been vs staggering, mind-numblingly yet heart-breakingly staggering

Head to head: North have dominated, winning the last 10 (and they’re 6-0 against the Dees at the Dome)

Eye on the Dees: The ladder isn’t showing it, but the Dees are a much better team than they were under Neeld - though they’re still lightyears behind the competition. They’re getting more footy, tackling better and generally attacking better. Aside from a Geelong battering, the Dees have been in all games they’ve played under Craig. They hate this fixture, however, and will be fuming at the 6 day break (essentially) they get after a sapping match in Darwin while North sit on an 8 day break and back-to-back games at the Dome (not to mention that Melbourne are playing their home game at another team’s ground - not for the first time!).

Eye on the Roos: Crikey. What a shambles. 5 games by less than a kick to teams positioned 1st, 3rd, 9th, 10th, 11th sees North sitting 13th! They’d be good to watch if they weren’t so disgusting. Make no mistake, they will be playing full of fire this weekend and looking to make any side pay, not least a poor bottom two outfit. Aside from their 10 point win, North have won 5 matches by 54, 62, 63, 68 and 86 points at an everage of 66.6 points (all at the Dome).

Verdict: This will be a shellacking. The Dees are improved but no where near North’s league, not on this ground, not after the Darwin affair. If the Dees can’t roll a mediocre outfit in a big game on their calendar, they won’t get close to a well-drilled outfit on their home turf smarting from a wasted season and still, somehow, a faint whiff of September action in the air. North will be too hard, too skilled, too slick for the Dees.

Tip: Roos by 83

Collingwood v GWS

Form: Revealed vs Terrible

Head to head: Pies won the only contest by 120 points...away.

Eye on the Pies: Fuming. That’s how they’ll feel. A potential finals lead-in turned nightmare last week when Collingwood fell to the vibrant Suns. Suddenly, even finals look a long way away for a side exposed. They’ll love the safety of the G and obliterated the Giants in their only match to date.

Eye on the Giants: They were better last week in their second 39 point loss of the season to the Bombers but it’s really not enough. 17 losses this year by 67.9 points on average it wouldn’t surprise me if they had more of an eye to the following fixture against the Dees than this one.

Verdict: Uh oh. A fired up Magpies team should take the Giants to school on their home turf. They’ve only thrashed one “team” this year - but I think this’ll be the second. Cloke will have a field day I feel and guys like Sidebottom and Beams will revel in the extra space.

Tip: Pies by 96

Geelong v St Kilda

Form: Very good vs Very bad

Head to head: Cats with the last 3

Eye on the Cats: Two poor quarters out of the past 32 have cost them. Depending on what happens with Essendon (and a reasonably tame lead-in to the finals) it may not cost them on the ladder, but it may cost them a little respect. An impeccable side, no doubt, an air of doubt lingers after capitulations to Brisbane and Adelaide. It should be noted, however, that both of these occurred outside Victoria. Geelong’s 3 losses have each been by under a kick and the week after this losses the Cats have won by 48 (away to Port Adelaide) and 41 (home to Fremantle). St Kilda are not as good as either of these sides and the Cats will be ready to play - Johnson back for Bartel is reasonably handy!

Eye on the Saints: A predictably plucky performance fell short - and it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Saints were lamentable for the most. Without Riewoldt, this mob would be absolutely pathetic this year. Jack Steven will be an elite player of the comp but there hasn’t been much else to write home about for the boys from Seaford.

Verdict: Riewoldt has indeed been immense but, unfortunately for them, he’s exactly the player the Cats will shut out of the game. With too many mids going missing when the running goes against them and the Cats grumpy after a poor showing, look for Geelong to hit hard and often against a declining Saints team. They’ll revert to their defensive lockdown which could be the only thing to keep the margin in check.

Tip: Cats by 60

Fremantle vs Adelaide

Form: Good vs Surprising

Head to head: Adelaide with 3 of the last 4

Eye on the Dockers: Cruelled by injury (and a brainfade), all eyes will be on their ins this weekend. With Mcpharlin, Ballantyne, Pavlich and Sandilands out, it was always going to be too much for them on Sunday. Any side without their best ruck, back, forward and small forward will struggle. The Dockers are better than the sum of the parts but are still fallible to so many injuries. It really is the biggest issue in this match, in my opinion.

Eye on the Crows: What a win. In fact, their past month has been good. A gutsy win against the Suns, pushing West Coast and Collingwood all the way have given back some respect for the Crows. They’ll face a tough assessment against the Dockers but this fixture has thrown up surprises before.

Verdict: Without key players, the Dockers should still be too good but it will certainly level things out, especially against a Crows side who have been surprisingly good in the past month. My gut says the Dockers will be too good, especially defensively, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Crows push them all the way. This game could turn out very similarly to the last time these sides met.

Tip: Dockers by 9

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane

Form: OK-good vs Hard to read

Head to head: Lions with the last 4 (the away team has won 6 of the last 9 in this fixture)

Eye on the Power: What to make of this mob? Brilliant against the Pies and Swans, poor against the Bombers and Hawks and equal parts each against the Saints - the Power can be anything on any given day. Fiesty midfielders who love to get on a roll have hurt most sides this year but those same players lose the plot when it goes the other way. So much so that Power games are reduced to swings of momentum. Something the Lions don’t mind, either. 5-3 at home this year, those three losses have also been their biggest of the year.

Eye on the Lions: As hard to read as the Power, the loss of Black, Brown, Moloney and Golby showed last week. They’ve beaten 2nd and 3rd, North, Melbourne and the Gold Coast. That shows that they have really only beaten 1-2 sides around their ability - they have won 4 of their last 6 outings.

Verdict: This could be a sneaky for game of the round if both teams are near their mark. At their best they play risky, attacking football and both can score quickly. Brisbane have the wood over the Power so that could negate their home field advantage and superior ladder position. Brisbane will need some players back and Port will need more of their first half from last week than their second. 3 of their best wins have come at home, 3 of their worst have come at home. One of Brisbane’s best wins has come interstate (against the Bombers) but so has their worst loss - in my opinion - (against the Swans). This game could be anything but I’m backing it in to be a good one.

Tip: Power by 1

Western Bulldogs vs West Coast

Form: Not great vs disappointing

Head to head: Eagles with the last 4

Eye on the Dogs: To be brutal, I’m tired of writing the same things about this mob. At least, statistically, they’ve been better in the last 3 games. Plucky showings against the Hawks and Dons and a win against the Giants would leave their supporters feeling better - but the reality is that they’re in all-mighty trouble.

Eye on the Eagles: They’ve lost 4 of their past 5 - admittedly to 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th. In fact, that sums up where they’re at I reckon. Better than most of the rest but no where near the cream. The things they do do, however, is [censored] rubbish team. The Giants, Dees and Dogs have felt their wrath - each by over 70 points.

Verdict: West Coast have beaten teams below them fairly regularly this year and, despite a few recent losses, that trend will continue. NN out could spur D. Cox into action but it’s really about time a few of their outside runners pull their finger out and play in a bit of a harder, more damaging fashion. They’ll win this one, regardless.

Tip: Eagles by 41

Sydney v Richmond

Form: Building vs September-bound

Head to head: Tigers with the last 2 and 3 out of the last 4 (Sydney with the previous 8)

Eye on the Swans: You get the feeling they are building nicely toward September. The Swans have beaten all comers save for 1st and 2nd * and a blip against the Power. Lots of goal kickers through the middle, ball-winners who use it well and a potent full forward whose only problem is that he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. Sydney look likely.

Eye on the Tigers: Finally. After all the pain and anguish, Richmond will be playing in September. How the players respond will be fascinating. I don’t think they’d have gotten up last week without the three big Dockers’ outs and it’ll either be a Richmond side raring to prove their worth or a lazy Richmond side resting on its laurels. Either seems equally likely. They’ve won 6 of their last 7 and their last two against the Swans and a close loss up there in their only loss to Sydney in the last 4.

Verdict: It’s more up to Richmond than Sydney. Whilst Sydney’s goal-kicking accuracy can be flippant, the rest of their game is rock solid. Richmond’s problem is that they really still haven’t beaten a top team. West Coast away was probably their best win this year, but even they’re not a very good team this season. The next two weeks will show Richmond for what they are. I think it’ll show them to be hard-triers but ultimately short of the front-pack.

Tip: Swans by 33

Game of the Round: Power/Lions by gut, Bombers/Hawks by ladder position, Swans/Tigers on potential

Thrashing of the Round: Magpies/Roos

Upset of the round: Gold Coast and potentially Crows/Lions

Closest tip last week: Missed Lions by 4

[Young Dee 1,303]

Roos by 83?...... Lets hope not!

I think it's totally up to our midfield

[45HG 1,539]

I think it's totally up to our midfield

I think that's why it'll be 83.

[Young Dee 1,303]

Looking at WCE changes this week - is that called list management or tanking?

[The Lobster Effect 892]

Looking at WCE changes this week - is that called list management or tanking?

I would have given them the benefit of the doubt but they left Cale in!