On 15/03/2011 at 09:22, rpfc said:

When does a 196cm footy player reach his peak?

And Watts has a little more talent than Miller. It's a pretty lazy example, and a sign of the Syn in my eyes.

Could he turn out like later bloomers J Riewoldt or N Riewoldt or, frack, even T Cloke? No he has to be likened to Brad Miller...

Because if the worst happens - at least we saw it coming...

N Riewoldt a late bloomer? Why do people constantly post this crap?

For the second time in this thread;

Injured first season, B&F second season. In 150 years of football, you will struggle to find a worse comparison.

  On 15/03/2011 at 11:49, Thomo said:

N Riewoldt a late bloomer? Why do people constantly post this crap?

For the second time in this thread;

Injured first season, B&F second season. In 150 years of football, you will struggle to find a worse comparison.

Fixed.

Had another player in mind (Mooney) as a late bloomer, but decided to leave him out. Grammar wasn't changed.

I apologise to you and your family, I only hope you can move on because when we survive - we thrive.

Good luck, and Godspeed.

  On 15/03/2011 at 10:11, J-Riv said:

Just incase anyone missed It Jack Watts Is 19 years old.

no one forgets this fact.

Some people just wonder why a #1 pick was used on a project/development player not a ready made star (which is the usual route).

I dont have a problem with having to wait for him to come good becasue we're still a way off as an entire team anyway, but I can also sympathise with those who cant see why the bloke gets talked up or defended as much as he does. If he was taken at pick 25 he wouldnt be getting a regular game IMO

  On 15/03/2011 at 22:45, DemonWA said:

no one forgets this fact.

Some people just wonder why a #1 pick was used on a project/development player not a ready made star (which is the usual route).

I dont have a problem with having to wait for him to come good becasue we're still a way off as an entire team anyway, but I can also sympathise with those who cant see why the bloke gets talked up or defended as much as he does. If he was taken at pick 25 he wouldnt be getting a regular game IMO

He wasn't a 'pick 25' for a reason.

He is talent but a great man once said - "For every inch over 6 foot, you give them an extra year."

That man was Checker Hughes.

So I guess you have to ask yourselves, not whether you trust Bailey's judgement, but whether you trust the judgement of Checker Hughes.

And if you had to wiki his name, I don't care about your insights because you shouldn't be here.

It would be like Americans thinking Lincoln was a founding father...

  On 15/03/2011 at 10:11, J-Riv said:

Just incase anyone missed It Jack Watts Is 19 years old.

Far too often this gets overlooked J-Riv.

Not taking losses "hard" doesn't mean he hates losing either.

Oh please...bring on the footy....pwweaasee !

  On 15/03/2011 at 22:45, DemonWA said:

no one forgets this fact.

Some people just wonder why a #1 pick was used on a project/development player not a ready made star (which is the usual route).

I dont have a problem with having to wait for him to come good becasue we're still a way off as an entire team anyway, but I can also sympathise with those who cant see why the bloke gets talked up or defended as much as he does. If he was taken at pick 25 he wouldnt be getting a regular game IMO

Brendan Goddard was a ready made star. He just took about seven years to prove it.

  On 15/03/2011 at 23:10, Deemolition said:

Brendan Goddard was a ready made star. He just took about seven years to prove it.

Agree, Goddard copped alot of critism for the first 3 - 4 years of his football career he had the smarts and the skills, but was always talked about being "to slow" and "soft" with no natural postion, ha how funny now what position can't he play? He also came from a basketball background however he was a gun cricketer and i know for a fact football was always his first choice but could have been elite at a number of sports.

Not saying Watts will be in the same class as Goddard.......but? IMO i see Watts and Morton with alot of ability and potentail in the "Goddard mold" but will they ever reach that potentail only time will tell.

Sorry everyone i should have known better than to have a more sceptical opinion on one player than the rest of you...

and sorry for not being 100% sure that watts will develop exactly like Goddard. After all they are both number 1 picks who were drafted young so history will repeat itself without doubt...

Gotta love the high and mighty attitude of those that know better than everyone else.

too add more fuel to the fire, Andrew McDougall was a tall early draft pick too

  On 16/03/2011 at 00:03, DemonWA said:

Sorry everyone i should have known better than to have a more sceptical opinion on one player than the rest of you...

and sorry for not being 100% sure that watts will develop exactly like Goddard. After all they are both number 1 picks who were drafted young so history will repeat itself without doubt...

Gotta love the high and mighty attitude of those that know better than everyone else.

too add more fuel to the fire, Andrew McDougall was a tall early draft pick too

Gotta love the high and mighty attitude of those that think others are being high and mighty.

All you are doing is casting doubts on a 19 year old's career.

All I am saying is it is premature to do so.

You can say what you like, and I can say it's not worth the internet it uses.

Fascinating that the focus of this thread has gone to the question of "will watts make it" rather than the initial post which was a suggestion Watts had been told that without an improvement in his form he was a chance of not being selected in round 1.

My view on that issue remains the same as it was a few days ago. I don't think he should be selected if his intensity is not at AFL level and nor should any player. I respect the alternative view that he needs to be in the seniors to develop that aspect (and other componenets) of his game, though i feel his development could be assited in this regard by not being a lay down misere for selection

I also repsect the view some have that Watts does indeed show the required intensity, so i'm happy to agree to disagree on that front.

All that said i won't be surprised if he is not selected round 1 as i think there is question mark on his intensity level and the club has made some recent references to the need for the forwards to improve their defensive pressure

Does anyone know how Watts played last Friday. How was his intensity? How was his tackling? The reports i have read have been very thin and i can't find any stats, nor is there any player review on the melbourne site.

  On 16/03/2011 at 02:00, binman said:

Fascinating that the focus of this thread has gone to the question of "will watts make" it rather than the initial post which was a suggestion Watts had been told that without an improvement in his form he was achance of not being selected in round 1.

My view on that issue remains the same as it was a few days ago. I don't think he should be selected if his intensity is not at AFL level and nor should any player. And I respect the alternative view that he needs to be in the seniors to develop that aspect (and other componenets) of his game, though i feel his development could be assited in this regard by not being a lay down misere for selection

I also repsect the view some have that Watts does indeed show the required intensity, so i'm happy to agree to disagree on that front.

All that said i won't be surprised if he is not selected round 1 as i think there is question mark on his intensity level and the club has made some recent references to the need for the forwards to improve their defensive pressure

Does anyone know how Watts played last Friday. How was his intensity? How was his tackling? The reports i have read have been very thin and i can't find any stats, nor is there any player review on the melbourne site.

You can read the live feed from Matt Burgan.

Watts needs to lift, as does many of his more seasoned teammates.

He is also a huge investment and the future of this club - he needs to be developed and that, as hard a pill as it is, means he has and will get games he didn't 'deserve.'

All things being equal, he shouldn't have played half his games so far.

But things aren't equal, and nor should they be.

  On 16/03/2011 at 02:17, rpfc said:

You can read the live feed from Matt Burgan.

I read Matt Burgans live feed on the night and there wasn't much mention of watts. He did make note of of some good early tackles by Green and Watts and that tackling seems to have been a focus (no surprise there). However from the feed it certainly didn't sound like the sort of response to a rocket you'd hope for. No goals and not in best according to the dees website.

Intersting that Bailey (who "was disappointed with his team’s lack of intensity after the main break" in Tassie) made a comment that ("fierce tackler")Jetta had a good pre season and noted that they missed his tackling against the Hawks. Again the theme is intensity.

I suggest the first 5 games of this season are crucial, for a whole range of reasons - our chances of making the finals not least among them. Given this i believe they will pick the side they believe will maximise their chances of winning as opposed to having a focus on future player development.

  On 16/03/2011 at 02:52, binman said:

Given this i believe they will pick the side they believe will maximise their chances of winning as opposed to having a focus on future player development.

I did not realise future player development came at the cost of winning.

If the club is serious about winning they would be focussed the developing the side that allows them to win. Where has it come from that the Club will suddenly after three years abandon the the development of the list to sate the impatience and lack of undetrstanding of supporters. We must and will get AFL game time into our junior players who are talented yet have 4 years or less of AFL experience

And also if they do drop Watts, a 19yo will they just replace him with another 18-19 yo given the list is so young?

Some of this Watts = Goddard talk is a touch convenient.

If you want to make more comparisons, look at Hurley. Yes he's a little older, but the kid has had a LOT of very, very good games in a short period. If you want to take the position that KP players take longer (though I don't think 24 is accurate), then fine... and I'm certainly giving Watts time... but just as Hurley is a player that made an impact very early for his type (and isn't indicative of the general trend), it's also true that Goddard is a very rare player. To go from such a fluff player to as much of a star as he is, taking that long... his case is also well outside the norm.

IMO the time is this year or next for Watts to deliver. After 2012, he'd better be on the team sheet in pen.

  On 16/03/2011 at 03:10, Rhino Richards said:

I did not realise future player development came at the cost of winning.

If the club is serious about winning they would be focussed the developing the side that allows them to win. Where has it come from that the Club will suddenly after three years abandon the the development of the list to sate the impatience and lack of undetrstanding of supporters. We must and will get AFL game time into our junior players who are talented yet have 4 years or less of AFL experience

And also if they do drop Watts, a 19yo will they just replace him with another 18-19 yo given the list is so young?

We need to ensure those playing at senior level have the required intensity (ie the one percenters, the tackling, the sheer desire to get the ball etc) that is non negotiable in todays AFL. The outside player is, almost, a thing of the past -particulalry 93kg forwards.

Future development does not need to come at the cost of winning, but playing young players in the seniors is only one aspect of player development. If a player was not playing with the required intensity would their (and the teams) development be better served playing at Casey? We want Watts to develop as a KPF yet we are playing him as a high half forward (and we have a surfeit of this type of forward). Would 6 games at Casey playing CHF help his development?

If they do drop Watts they could replace him with Howe who is 22 and has played 3 years of senior football. Is there not an argument to say his development would be better served playing in the AFL? If there is who would he come in for?

As i have been at pains to say the issue is not Watt's potential talent but his current level of intensity. If another 18, 19 or 22 year old player had played with the required intensity over summer (and playing in the ones would aid his development) then sure why not bring him in. Why should those players development play second fiddle to JW?

  On 16/03/2011 at 03:45, Dappa Dan said:

Some of this Watts = Goddard talk is a touch convenient.

If you want to make more comparisons, look at Hurley. Yes he's a little older, but the kid has had a LOT of very, very good games in a short period. If you want to take the position that KP players take longer (though I don't think 24 is accurate), then fine... and I'm certainly giving Watts time... but just as Hurley is a player that made an impact very early for his type (and isn't indicative of the general trend), it's also true that Goddard is a very rare player. To go from such a fluff player to as much of a star as he is, taking that long... his case is also well outside the norm.

IMO the time is this year or next for Watts to deliver. After 2012, he'd better be on the team sheet in pen.

So if he isn't a superstar by the ripe old age of 21 years old, you'd leave him to the scrap heap would you. Rediculous.

And if anyone wants to watch a game of the messiah Hurley playing from last year, just look at the round 21 Essendon v Brisbane game, where Jonothan Brown tore him a new [censored] one, 25 possessions, 16 marks and kicked 4 goals 6 points. AND Brown was completely injured playing with a torn groin muscle AND Hurley played on his the entire game.

Hurley is so far away from being a consistently good player it isn't funny, which is fine because he's a 3rd year player. I wouldn't expect a key position player to be considered a superstar until at least 23-24 years old.

  On 16/03/2011 at 03:45, Dappa Dan said:

Some of this Watts = Goddard talk is a touch convenient.

If you want to make more comparisons, look at Hurley. Yes he's a little older, but the kid has had a LOT of very, very good games in a short period. If you want to take the position that KP players take longer (though I don't think 24 is accurate), then fine... and I'm certainly giving Watts time... but just as Hurley is a player that made an impact very early for his type (and isn't indicative of the general trend), it's also true that Goddard is a very rare player. To go from such a fluff player to as much of a star as he is, taking that long... his case is also well outside the norm.

IMO the time is this year or next for Watts to deliver. After 2012, he'd better be on the team sheet in pen.

How about Chris Dawes then ? Drafted in 2006 ( 28) - missed most of 2007 with a knee - we can compare that with Watts playing in 2009 with a no preparation and VCE.

Dawes made little impact until last year - at the age of 21 and I suspect he will come into his own as a power forward ( I rate him highly) over the next two seasons - 22/23.

My belief has always been that big forwards start to come into their own at 22 plus - this is more the norm than unusual. Even freaks like Franklin had their breakthrough season in season 3 aged 20. Watts is nominally season 2 at present as he is one year junior to others ( being taken at 17) and his first season was getting a taste on no preseason - nothing more. He will be the same age as Buddy when he had his breakout season next year.

Another I look at is Josh Kennedy taken at no 4 in the 2005 - started to show last year that he is maturing and will be a very good footballer - he is now aged 23.

I expect to see progress this season ( would love to see a goal a game average like Buddy did in his 2nd season) and breakthrough next year or the season after. (of course - would love to see it this year !)

I think some of our expectations on a 19 year old under-developed and up to now under prepared 196cm forward is a little out of sync with reality

Chris Dawes? give me a break, he's a bloody gorilla. Absolutley nothing like Watts.

  On 16/03/2011 at 03:45, Dappa Dan said:

IMO the time is this year or next for Watts to deliver. After 2012, he'd better be on the team sheet in pen.

Given he is only 3 cm shorter than Paul Johnson surely that does not necessarily demand that if he does fire by 21 he's an ordinary footballer.

A touch hasty

  On 16/03/2011 at 03:55, binman said:

..

He is 19 and still growing into his physique and replacing him with a 22yo debutant does nothing to address your hope of winning or that you are taking another path other than future player development. Howe is no more a sure thing than Watts. He has not played AFL football at all and has no pedigree or experience at this level. And if the Footy dept have it right there should be more upside in Watts going forward. You have not supported your earlier statement that I challenged.

  On 16/03/2011 at 05:31, DemonWA said:

Chris Dawes? give me a break, he's a bloody gorilla. Absolutley nothing like Watts.

Daws is 22 and 105 kgs and 3 cm shorter than Watts.

Watts is 196cm, 19 and is still growing into his physique at about 5 kgs a year. At 22-23 Watts should be around 100kg.

Its a valid comparison

  On 16/03/2011 at 05:43, Rhino Richards said:

Daws is 22 and 105 kgs and 3 cm shorter than Watts.

Watts is 196cm, 19 and is still growing into his physique at about 5 kgs a year. At 22-23 Watts should be around 100kg.

Its a valid comparison

do you honestly think Watts will end up being the same type of player as Daws? Justin Westhoff maybe.....

Even if he puts on the Muscle i doubt he'll play the same style. I bet Daws was a bigger bodied youngster too....

  On 16/03/2011 at 06:38, DemonWA said:

do you honestly think Watts will end up being the same type of player as Daws? Justin Westhoff maybe.....

Even if he puts on the Muscle i doubt he'll play the same style. I bet Daws was a bigger bodied youngster too....

We are not talking about how they play - what I am trying to point out is that your taller players looking to play KP take time to come on. The N Reiwoldts of this world who turned it on almost from day one are a much rarer commodity than your Dawes, Goddards, even your Browns.

Your suggestion - Justin Westhoff - 24 years old - has he made it yet ?

My point is JW is 19 years old turning 20 this year - the expectations by some are just unrealistic - look at MOST ( not all) big men playing the game today and when they turned into valuable week in week out contributors.

nope the hoff is a crab, but he's a tall KPF who doesnt play the traditional pack crashing role - he takes some nice marks and has a decent set shot. It pains me to say it but he's the style of player i think Watts will be. Watts will obviously be more versitile and much better, but i doubt whether time and size will give us a different style player to what we have currently with watts.

Watts will end up 100kg, 196cm, strong, toned athlete/footballer. He'll easily be able to bust open a pack and then out run nearly everyone to kick the goal. He's going to be an incredible weapon at 23 - 24 years of age. The only thing he has to learn is to kick goals when he has the chance and hit packs at full pace. Can't really see either of those things being a problem for him.

A comparison with Hurley?

Hurley was a man when he was an under 18. He was an old fashioned footballer with a strong body in under 18s and so the level of development he needed to compete at AFL level was not particularly high. His game is about being smart and being strong, with his major weakness being that he is slow.

Compared with Watts, who was pencil thin and had a game based upon athleticism and ball use. He has played some very good games when pushing up the ground (which suits his skinny frame and athleticism). He is now pushing deeper into attack and showing some good signs, but is still being pushed around by bigger defenders which he is struggling with.

These are two completely different players. For two people that play the same position, I'd struggle to think of two people that were more different in style.

What sort of development do the two have left in them?

Hurley might get a little bit stronger, which will mean he can do the same thing he does now a little bit better. He's a pretty good player now and he should make some improvement.

Watts will get stronger and it will allow him to play the game completely differently. With added strength he can play deeper to goal and compete under the high ball. That's his biggest problem at the moment, but he's getting much better at it. Plus he's still going to be able to push up the ground and turn his man around like he does now, so you can't just play a gorilla on him.

The real time when Watts will become hugely dangerous is when he starts getting too strong for at opposition's most mobile tall defender. Then he'll force the opposition to make a decision between mobility and strength, the way Riewoldt does.

This will take some time, since he is only 19 years old. It may not happen until he is 23.

Look at Goddard, who is a different player but had a similar issue. He was a tall midfielder/flanker but very skinny. For years he was said to underperform. Then, when he finally grew into his frame and became physically on par (and even superior) among his peers, he was able to dominate and play all over the ground. It took Goddard a long time, but we all know how that turned out.