THE NOT SO MERRY MONTH OF MAY? by Stan the Stats Man

Statistically, the month of May has not been kind to the Melbourne Football Club. After a sensational April when it won three out of four games (and let's face it the loss in the other one against Collingwood was a travesty so the record should have been 100%) this month has proven to be a drought of gargantuan proportions.

Late in April, things were looking good for the once beleaguered Demons and some were even speaking in hushed voices of a surprise visit to the finals in September but since May Day when Melbourne lost to North Melbourne (a surprise defeat), it's more likely to be off to the knackery well before August is over. The club threw away another game that should have been won against the Western Bulldogs and then it suffered another surprise defeat when it started as the firm favourite taking on West Coast at home.

With Geelong at Skilled Stadium to round off the month of May next week, the club's chances of achieving some joy this month hinge on its trip north to Darwin where it takes on Port Adelaide at TIO Stadium - a place where the boys have at least won before in the opening game of the pre season Wizard Cup a few years back in 2006. That season was also the last year that Melbourne won an interstate game - way back in Round 14, 2006. Since then, it has lost 17 games in a row outside Victoria. Worse still, the Demons have not beaten Port Adelaide away from the MCG for almost exactly 10 years - since Round 8, 2000.

Melbourne's record against the Power hasn't been impressive either losing four of their last five matches by an average of 57 points.

Statistically therefore, Melbourne's prospects are not bright but there are some factors that defy statistics. In many ways the team has played well when pitted against teams in the top eight. Despite the defeats, the performances against Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs were not too shabby. Further this week's game might be on foreign territory but it's not exactly Port Adelaide's home ground either. They only have a 50% record from four games at TIO Stadium.

The Demons have a number of Northern Territorians on their list and, headed by Aaron Davey, the lads will be keen to treat Darwin as their second home. I'm not sure what the weather's like over there at the moment but it's raining in Central Australia which is Liam Jurrah's home territory and I'm therefore tipping Saturday night's game to be a May drought breaker for the club.

Melbourne by 17 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Port Adelaide Saturday 22 May 2010 at TIO Stadium, Darwin 7.40pm AEST

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 9 wins Port Adelaide 11 wins

At TIO Stadium Melbourne 0 wins Port Adelaide 0 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 6 wins Port Adelaide 9 wins

The Coaches Bailey 1 win Williams 2 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports Live from 7.30 pm.

Radio ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $2.35 Port Adelaide to win $1.60

LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 15.11.101 defeated Port Adelaide 13.12.90 Round 15 at the MCG

Liam Jurrah and Ricky Petterd had stand out games on the forward line with four goals each as lowly Melbourne shocked finals contender Port Adelaide on the MCG to score its second win in a row. Brent Moloney was the star of the Demon midfield and was rewarded with three Brownlow Medal votes.

THE TEAMS (to be loaded when available)

MELBOURNE

Backs Clint Bartram Joel Macdonald Jared Rivers

Half backs Jack Grimes James Frawley Colin Garland

Centreline James McDonald Jack Trengove Aaron Davey

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Brad Miller Cale Morton

Forwards Nathan Jones Brad Green Jack Watts

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Colin Sylvia

Interchange Jordie McKenzie Tom Scully Jake Spencer Austin Wonaeamirri

Emergencies Lynden Dunn Neville Jetta James Strauss

In Joel Macdonald Brad Miller Cale Morton Jake Spencer Austin Wonaeamirri

Out Matthew Bate (ankle) Cameron Bruce (hamstring) Daniel Hughes Paul Johnson Matthew Warnock (soreness)

PORT ADELAIDE

Backs Jacob Surjan Alipate Carlile Troy Chaplin

Half backs Paul Stewart Chad Cornes Steven Salopek

Centreline Danyle Pearce Domenic Cassisi Jason Davenport

Half forwards Matt Thomas Justin Westhoff David Rodan

Forwards Robbie Gray Brett Ebert Daniel Motlop

Followers Dean Brogan Travis Boak Kane Cornes

Interchange Cameron Hitchcock Tom LoganJay Schulz Jack Trengove

Emergencies Josh Carr Jay Nash Daniel Stewart

No change

THE SEASON SO FAR

As usual at this time of year, I provide a statistical overview of each player's season so far with brief comments. These are my views – no doubt others may disagree but here is the first instalment:

BAIL, Rohan MFC - 3 games 3 goals, Casey Seniors - 1 game 0 goals. Exciting and enterprising this surprise packet's great start has been ruined by a quad injury from which he has only just returned through Casey.

BARTRAM, Clint MFC - 7 games 2 goals. Playing some of his best footy since his debut season although the last couple of games have been a little hit and miss.

BATE, Matthew MFC - 8 games 10 goals. A slow start coming back from injury and was returning to good form until an ankle injury hampered him in the Eagles game.

BELL, Daniel Casey Seniors - 4 games 0 goals. Coming back slowly at Casey after an AC injury incurred during the pre season.

BENNELL, Jamie MFC - 8 games 4 goals. Flashes of brilliance interspersed with a few lowlights.

BLEASE, Sam Casey Reserves - 3 games 1 goal. Making slow progress on the comeback trial after a bad foot injury last year.

BRUCE, Cameron MFC - 8 games 0 goals. A steady performer. Injured a hamstring late in his last game.

CHENEY, Kyle Casey Seniors - 6 games 0 goals. Has been knocking on the door to AFL selection with some solid performances in defence at Casey but finding it hard to get in.

DAVEY, Aaron MFC - 8 games 3 goals. Not as predominant as he was last year but has had his good games.

DUNN, Lynden MFC - 7 games 4 goals. A few glimpses of good form but went off the boil in his more recent games.

FITZPATRICK, Jack Casey Reserves - 2 games 3 goals. Suffered an injured shoulder immediately after a best on ground with Casey Reserves.

FRAWLEY, James MFC - 8 games 0 goals. Growing in stature as a strong, fast young defender.

GARLAND, Colin MFC - 6 games 0 goals. Gradually finding his feet in defence after a long layoff with injury.

GAWN, Max Long term injury.

GREEN, Brad MFC - 8 games 18 goals. Has shown outstanding leadership and courage and is the team's top goal kicker.

GRIMES, Jack MFC - 8 games 0 goals. Outstanding season so far in defence.

GYSBERTS, Jordan Casey Seniors - 5 games 2 goals. Keeps thrusting his name in front of the noses of the Melbourne selectors with consistently good performances at Casey.

HEALEY, Rhys ® Casey Seniors - 4 games 2 goals. Still learning the ropes.

HUGHES, Daniel ® MFC - 2 games 2 goals, Casey Seniors - 3 games 2 goals. Impressed on debut with the Demons.

JAMAR, Mark MFC - 8 games 4 goals. Stepped up in the ruck in the early part of the season but has had his hands full with Hudson and Cox in recent weeks.

JETTA, Neville Casey Seniors - 5 games 6 goals. Has done well at Casey on return from a groin injury.

JOHNSON, Paul MFC - 2 games 0 goals, Casey Seniors - 4 games 1 goal.

JONES, Nathan MFC - 8 games 3 goals. Has been good this season but lowered his colours last week.

JURRAH, Liam Long term injury.

MACDONALD, Joel MFC - 6 games 0 goals, Casey Seniors - 2 games 1 goal. Added some spice and variety to the defence but had to make way because of the number of defenders of the same type in the team.

MCDONALD, James MFC - 8 games 4 goals. Vintage football from the veteran.

MCKENZIE, Jordie ® MFC - 7 games 2 goals. A revelation in his first full season. Incredible to think he's still on the rookie list!

McNAMARA, Tom Casey Seniors - 6 games 1 goal. Showing improvement at Casey but has the job ahead of him to break into the Demon defence.

MARIC, Addam Casey Seniors - 6 games 4 goals. Pushing hard for AFL selection in recent weeks.

MARTIN, Stefan MFC - 2 games 0 goals, Casey Seniors - 2 games 6 goals. Hasn't fulfilled his early promise and currently on the sidelines with a hip injury.

MEESEN, John ® Long term injury.

MILLER, Brad MFC - 1 game 2 goals , Casey Seniors - 6 games 12 goals. Lost his way a little after a poor first up effort against the Hawks but has been doing well and kicking goals at Casey in recent times.

MOLONEY, Brent MFC - 8 games 0 goals. Strong and improved form in the engine room.

MORTON, Cale Casey Seniors - 2 games 4 goals. Early stages of comeback from knee surgery.

NEWTON, Michael ® MFC - 2 games 1 goal, Casey Seniors - 4 games 8 goals. After a couple of early games with the Demons, has been kicking goals at Casey.

PETTERD, Ricky MFC - 6 games 12 goals. Added bite to the forward line early before damaging his shoulder and joining the list of players out with long term injuries.

RIVERS, Jared MFC - 4 games 0 goals, Casey Seniors - 1 game 0 goals. Had some injury woes and hasn't yet produced his best after coming back into the side in the last month.

SCULLY, Tom MFC - 8 games 3 goals. Great start to what should be a long and stellar career.

SPENCER, Jake ® MFC - 1 game 0 goals, Casey Seniors - 5 games 1 goal. Played forward in the opening game of the season without much success. Has been improving at Casey in the first ruck role.

STRAUSS, James MFC - 2 games 0 goals, Casey Seniors - 5 games 0 goals. Had a taste of AFL football and is promising.

SYLVIA, Colin MFC - 5 games 8 goals. Was going gangbusters in his first couple of games after his broken jaw but very subdued lately.

TAPSCOTT, Luke Long term injury.

TRENGOVE, Jack MFC - 8 games 4 goals. Along with Scully, one of the club's shining young lights.

WARNOCK, Matthew MFC - 8 games 0 goals. Very handy in defence this season and has some big scalps.

WATTS, Jack MFC - 1 game 0 goals, Casey Seniors - 5 games 7 goals. Showed glimpses in his first game last week.

WONAEMIRRI, Austin Casey Seniors - 2 games 2 goals, Casey Reserves - 2 games 4 goals. Has been eased slowly back into the swing of things after missing all of last year with knee and hamstring problems, the latter of which recurred during the pre season.

Team changes have just been posted on afl.com.au

Melbourne

B: Clint Bartram, Joel Macdonald, Jared Rivers

HB: Jack Grimes, James Frawley, Colin Garland

C: James McDonald, Jack Trengove, Aaron Davey

HF: Jamie Bennell, Brad Miller, Cale Morton

F: Nathan Jones, Brad Green, Jack Watts

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia

I/C: Tom Scully, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jordie McKenzie, Jake Spencer

Emg: Neville Jetta, James Strauss, Lynden Dunn

In: Miller, Macdonald, Wonaeamirri, Morton, Spencer

Out: Cameron Bruce (hamstring), Paul Johnson, Matthew Bate (ankle), Daniel Hughes, Matthew Warnock (soreness)

Edited May 20, 201015 yr by Demonland

MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

Melbourne

B: Clint Bartram, Joel Macdonald, Jared Rivers

HB: Jack Grimes, James Frawley, Colin Garland

C: James McDonald, Jack Trengove, Aaron Davey

HF: Jamie Bennell, Brad Miller, Cale Morton

F: Nathan Jones, Brad Green, Jack Watts

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia

I/C: Tom Scully, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jordie McKenzie, Jake Spencer

Emg: Neville Jetta, James Strauss, Lynden Dunn

In: Miller, Macdonald, Wonaeamirri, Morton, Spencer

Out: Cameron Bruce (hamstring), Paul Johnson, Matthew Bate (ankle), Daniel Hughes, Matthew Warnock (soreness)

Far too many changes....Warnock out.....will be missed

Team Just in 5 Changes

B: C.Bartram, J.MacDonald, J.Rivers

HB: J.Grimes, J.Frawley, C.Garland

C: J.McDonald, J.Trengove, A.Davey

HF: J.Bennell, B.Miller, C.Morton

F: N.Jones, B.Green, J.Watts

R: M.Jamar, B.Moloney, C.Sylvia

Int: T.Scully, A.Wonaeamirri, J.McKenzie, J.Spencer.

Emg: N.Jetta, J.Strauss, L.Dunn.

In: Joel MacDonald, Brad Miller, Jake Spencer, Cale Morton, Austin Wonaeamirri

Out: Matthew Warnock (General Soreness), Matthew Bate (Ankle), Cameron Bruce (Hamstring), Daniel Hughes, Paul Johnson

Massive surprise Warnock is out

Great to see Morton and Wona back from injury we are moving in the right direction.

Edited May 20, 201015 yr by Diablo Deemon

Dang. Slightly too slow.

Edited May 20, 201015 yr by Dr. Mubutu

Sticky, slippery, sweaty conditions.....

Spencer? He isn't good when it's dry with no winds.

My god this better be tactics for a late withdrawal so Jetta gets in.

MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

Melbourne

B: Clint Bartram, Joel Macdonald, Jared Rivers

HB: Jack Grimes, James Frawley, Colin Garland

C: James McDonald, Jack Trengove, Aaron Davey

HF: Jamie Bennell, Brad Miller, Cale Morton

F: Nathan Jones, Brad Green, Jack Watts

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia

I/C: Tom Scully, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jordie McKenzie, Jake Spencer

Emg: Neville Jetta, James Strauss, Lynden Dunn

In: Miller, Macdonald, Wonaeamirri, Morton, Spencer

Out: Cameron Bruce (hamstring), Paul Johnson, Matthew Bate (ankle), Daniel Hughes, Matthew Warnock (soreness)

Jetta must be disappointed that Wonna gets a go ahead of him. Spencer???? Cant understand why in those conditions that Spencer and Miller would come in and not another small

Far too many changes....Warnock out.....will be missed

MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

Melbourne

B: Clint Bartram, Joel Macdonald, Jared Rivers

HB: Jack Grimes, James Frawley, Colin Garland

C: James McDonald, Jack Trengove, Aaron Davey

HF: Jamie Bennell, Brad Miller, Cale Morton

F: Nathan Jones, Brad Green, Jack Watts

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia

I/C: Tom Scully, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jordie McKenzie, Jake Spencer

Emg: Neville Jetta, James Strauss, Lynden Dunn

In: Miller, Macdonald, Wonaeamirri, Morton, Spencer

Out: Cameron Bruce (hamstring), Paul Johnson, Matthew Bate (ankle), Daniel Hughes, Matthew Warnock (soreness)

Far too many changes....Warnock out.....will be missed

I'm OK with this team. I don't know the Port team as yet, ah, hang on

Port Adelaide

B: Jacob Surjan, Alipate Carlile, Troy Chaplin

HB: Paul Stewart, Chad Cornes, Steven Salopek

C: Danyle Pearce, Domenic Cassisi, Jason Davenport

HF: Matt Thomas, Justin Westhoff, David Rodan

F: Robbie Gray, Brett Ebert, Daniel Motlop

Foll: Dean Brogan, Travis Boak, Kane Cornes

I/C: Tom Logan, Jack Trengove, Jay Schulz, Cameron Hitchcock

Emg: Josh Carr, Daniel Stewart, Jay Nash

No change

Edited May 20, 201015 yr by dee-luded

MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

Melbourne

B: Clint Bartram, Joel Macdonald, Jared Rivers

HB: Jack Grimes, James Frawley, Colin Garland

C: James McDonald, Jack Trengove, Aaron Davey

HF: Jamie Bennell, Brad Miller, Cale Morton

F: Nathan Jones, Brad Green, Jack Watts

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia

I/C: Tom Scully, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jordie McKenzie, Jake Spencer

Emg: Neville Jetta, James Strauss, Lynden Dunn

In: Miller, Macdonald, Wonaeamirri, Morton, Spencer

Out: Cameron Bruce (hamstring), Paul Johnson, Matthew Bate (ankle), Daniel Hughes, Matthew Warnock (soreness)

Far too many changes....Warnock out.....will be missed

Best late change ever

Not as good as I was hoping for.

Warnock out is a big, big loss. Mind you, Port doesn't have Tredrea at the moment. I wonder what 'soreness' is.

Spencer in is a bad move. Why replace one dud ruckman with another? Miller could have done it. And it in turn reduces the value of seeing Miller come in for Hughes, as it's clear now he's going to play as a forward, not as a forward/ruck.

Nice to have Morton and Wonaeamirri back, but Jetta would feel unlucky to not get the nod over Wonna.

Hey, it's:

JACK TRENGOVE vs JACK TRENGOVE

Edited May 20, 201015 yr by eth38

Well i guess the thread i started just a moment after this one can be deleted LOL.

Spencer inclusion is puzzling and interesting to see Strauss and Dunn named as emergencies alongside Jetta.

I wonder if the late change could be Dunn for Spencer which would then make Miller the backup Ruck.

MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

Melbourne

B: Clint Bartram, Joel Macdonald, Jared Rivers

HB: Jack Grimes, James Frawley, Colin Garland

C: James McDonald, Jack Trengove, Aaron Davey

HF: Jamie Bennell, Brad Miller, Cale Morton

F: Nathan Jones, Brad Green, Jack Watts

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia

I/C: Tom Scully, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jordie McKenzie, Jake Spencer

Emg: Neville Jetta, James Strauss, Lynden Dunn

In: Miller, Macdonald, Wonaeamirri, Morton, Spencer

Out: Cameron Bruce (hamstring), Paul Johnson, Matthew Bate (ankle), Daniel Hughes, Matthew Warnock (soreness)

Far too many changes....Warnock out.....will be missed

Not the game for two ruckmen. With 80% humidity and possible rain, in the words of the Coach, "the ball will be a cake of soap".

Not as good as I was hoping for.

Warnock out is a big, big loss. Mind you, Port doesn't have Tredrea at the moment. I wonder what 'soreness' is.

Spencer in is a bad move. Why replace one dud ruckman with another? Miller could have done it. And it in turn reduces the value of seeing Miller come in for Hughes, as it's clear now he's going to play as a forward, not as a forward/ruck.

Nice to have Morton and Wonaeamirri back, but Jetta would feel unlucky to not get the nod over Wonna.

Couldn't agree more....I think Spencer is a long term possibility but no way known is he needed in oppressive, humid, slippery conditions, especially as Port only have one ruckman (Bogan!) to worry about....surely surely surely Miller could chop out Russian and Jetta plays.

I certainly hope the 'best late change ever' call rings true!

I think Warnock might be a smart strategic move.

Port don't have any monsters for Warnock to play on, so we were looking to add more run to our backline, which we obviously have now.

Could be a good move.

I expect Jetta to replace Spencer in a late move if the weather is poor.

Sticky, slippery, sweaty conditions.....

Spencer? He isn't good when it's dry with no winds.

My god this better be tactics for a late withdrawal so Jetta gets in.

I suspect Spencer may do the bulk of the ruck duties, (60%) to give the Russian a bit of a freshener & so he could spend some time forward.

I think maybe one more change?

Well i guess the thread i started just a moment after this one can be deleted LOL.

Spencer inclusion is puzzling and interesting to see Strauss and Dunn named as emergencies alongside Jetta.

I wonder if the late change could be Dunn for Spencer which would then make Miller the backup Ruck.

Sorry PM!!! Bored at work and just waiting for the team.....was ready to go!

Hey, it's:

JACK TRENGOVE vs JACK TRENGOVE

I thought the other one was Jackson Trengrove.

Take a look at Port's forward line. With Tredrea out, there's no point taking four tall backs into the game, particularly in the humidity of Darwin. Rivers is more mobile than Warnock and Port are missing their gorilla, so Warnock misses out.

And I'm with others who reckon Jetta will be a late replacement for Spencer.

Edit: Jaded was posting as I was posting! Great minds etc, etc.

Edited May 20, 201015 yr by MikeyJ

I think Warnock might be a smart strategic move.

Port don't have any monsters for Warnock to play on, so we were looking to add more run to our backline, which we obviously have now.

Could be a good move.

I expect Jetta to replace Spencer in a late move if the weather is poor.

Yep, it's a great time to give him a rest.

Going with a smallish team.

We are told today that the conditions in Darwin will be warm and dewy. The players have been experimenting with gloves and wrist bands. Why would you bring Miller in when the guy has one of the worst pair of hands in the team (competition) He rarely grabs it below his knees or above the shoulders. When was the last time he significantly contributed toward a win. Spencer is a project player, maybe potential but as a basketball player he should be left to learn the game in the VFL. The game will be played on the ground. Neither he nor Miller will contribute enough to warrant selection. It's these decisions that perpetuate the questions about the competence of the coaching staff. There perceptions are still too coloured by the dream world. I guess I should console myself that this is dreamtime weekend.

I thought the other one was Jackson Trengrove.

Same surname, but the Port version has a "son".

Uh... No strange pun intended.

Heard the term "late change"??

Get ready to hear it again on the weekend.

I knew Miller would come in to replace Bate. That was obvious and fair enough. Just hope he can play well. Thought Hughes was a bit unlucky. Sure he hasn't set the world on fire but he has taken some great marks and last week wasn't his fault. Our foward line was set up poorly. Surely Miller can take the ruck duties as well. Port only have Brogan and occasionally westhoff. If it's wet Spencer would be no good. Actually if its dry the same applies.

I hope Aussie is fit and right to go and they aren't just putting him in because of the whole Darwin thing. But it's good to see him back as I feel he is one player we have missed. the crumber around the ball.

Loving the inclusion of Morton. Hope Warnock is just soreness and nothing more. He's pivotal to our backline.

Well its good to see some players coming back.

I don't understand why, given that Bailey's on the record as saying the ball will be like a cake of soap, we'd start Spencer and leave Jetta in the emergencies. Yes, I know there's every chance we'll have a late change, but it seems that DB's aware it's not the conditions for big men, why pick Spencer in the first place? Don't get it.