Next Golden Era

[Crystal Dees 372]

Although an infrequent poster on Demonland I have been around the traps. I have been a MFC member for over 30 years and in my first 7 years of life Melbourne won 5 Premierships and were runners up twice (that should make it easy to carbon date me!). I give you this background to outline that what I am suggesting is not based on blind faith or wishful thinking.

I believe Melbourne is about to have its next Golden Era and by that I mean a period of multiple premierships. And I’m talking about in the next 2-3 years, not 5-6 as some people believe before we have success. Before you flick this post let’s look at some facts.

1938 Missed finals

1939 – 1941 Premiers

1953 2nd last

1954 – 1964 11 consecutive top 4 appearances inc. 6 Premierships

1985 2nd last

1986 2nd last

1987 One kick from Grand Final and a further 4 top 4 finishes

1999 14th

2000 Grand Final

What this says is that not only do Melbourne rise quickly from failure to success but it is almost compulsory for us to bottom out shortly before prolonged success.

Let’s look at what Melbourne has done in the past 2 years. We got burned by Carlton in ’07 in the final game because we didn’t play the system. We learned from that and now we have (or will) secure at least 2 absolute gun midfielders and the best KPP (Watts) identified in the past 2 years. Throw in another 4 untried top 20 players from 08/09 and you have the best possible scenario you could wish for. The 2 new clubs are unlikely to win a Premiership in the next 5-6 years at least and the other clubs can only weaken without good draft picks and poaching from the 2 new clubs. To get a good draft pick from the 2 new clubs will cost a good player so there will be short term performance pain for them.

Melbourne has bitten the bullet and ‘retired’ or delisted anyone who has been shaving more than 5 years. Who will we lose through unforced retirement over the next 5 years? McDonald, Bruce & Green. Very, very good players granted – but no Brownlow Medallists. So what will our next Premiership team look like? Not even considering we may pick up 1 or 2 good ones in the 3 years it may resemble the team below:

BACKS: Rivers Frawley Cheney

HB Grimes Garland Blease

C Davey Trengove Jetta

HF Sylvia Morton Bate

FF Wonaearmirri Watts Jurrah

R Jamar Scully Moloney,

INTERCHANGE FROM: Martin, Maric, Jones, Bennell, Ball?, Warnock, Petterd, Strauss, McKenzie, Miller, Spencer, Dunne, Pick 11, Pick 18, 2010/2011 Draft picks

What I like is the depth we will have – an absolute must for a Premiership side. This is a quick, skilful side with the ability to hit a target.

2010 Knocking on the door with 10 wins

2011 Playing finals (and winning at least 1)

2012 Grand Finalist and start of our new Decade of the Demon

2013 And onwards - Premiership, Premiership, Premiership…..etc

Edited October 21, 2009 by Crystal Dees

[Sir Why You Little 36,668]

Hope ya Right with that Crystal Ball Mate.

This waiting another 5-6 year wait until we can have a crack is far too negative.

The club has got to start planning september strategies now....as the saying goes "Failure requires no preparation"

[H_T 3,032]

I'll make it crystal, Crystal. I wish it were that easy. Fingers crossed it is.

PS. It is Moloney and it's also Trengove.

[Crystal Dees 372]

I'll make it crystal, Crystal. I wish it were that easy. Fingers crossed it is.

PS. It is Moloney and it's also Trengove.

Oops.....all fixed now. I know it's not easy but historically, no set of circumstances have fallen this favourably for a team. All we need is the miracle medical team Jesse Smith believes exists.

[Swampfox 190]

Interesting read and brings back memories

The 11 finals apearances (top 4 in those days) set a new record in VFL (1954-64)

After being favoured ahead of Norm Smith as the Melbourne Coach Alan La Fontaine (pictured in my avatar) failed to live up to expectations

La Fontaine was regarded as the finest centreman of the era

Smith then took on the coaching role in 1952 and developed something special (read the book)

He was actually the first coach to use the play on tactic which is often labelled with Barassi in the 1970 GF

To do this he needed to have the personal and in 1953 blooded 19 new players (something you couldnt do today)

Smith had an astute eye for talent although stan alves would probably disagree

Over the years the successful teams have recruited , managed and developed their lists

This isnt what we did during the late 60,s through to 80,s and our lack of success showed

When we did have a crack (twice) we were never quite right and got smashed by a team clearly better

Our best chance was the infamous Stynes free kick against Hawthorn but we will never know for sure

One of the reasons Collingwood has only 2 premierships since 1958 is by being second best most of the time

Their ability to make finals is uncanny with poor years quite rare

Today its a different game but that same list management and development that was successful with Norm is still rellavent

Since 1965 its been Tigers , Blues , Hawks , Bombers , Kangaroos and Lions all having eras with Geelong the current benchmark

The gun team of the day were all classified as unbeatable until of course someone else did

During the VFL 12 team competition it was always one of the first 3 teams that triumphed so being 4th was near impossible

Except for notably Adelaide this hasnt really changed

There was a few moments when we Victorians ever thought we had any show at all such was the strength of interstate teams

Not every favourite won but they nearly always got there

I am optimistic that we will be a threat in the next 5 - 10 years but the timing has to be right

After this years draft we get to fine tune and develop a team of players that plays together longer

The list will change no doubt but only very slightly

As history shows premiership windows dont last long so we better be ready when it does

As for your team

Watts IMO is a CHF and if the dice rolls ok at the draft we could have Carlisle / Butcher at FF

Interesting you think Morton can be a CHF

After watching a recruit called Hart play and how skinny he was you might be right but think Watts is the answer

IMO Davey should play forward of centre because he can hurt the opposition on the scoreboard on his own or his delivery to leads

I totally agree with depth being valuable

Losing a disgrunted player especially somone we really value is part of the football departments dilemmas but with the game now

having so many rotations it does help avoiding some players ego,s thinking they deserve the spot rather than sharing it

I really doubt Ball will be a Demon

What i think we need ASAP is a good tap ruckman to complement Scully,s great hands

As for Bailey i really hope he has the chance to finish the job

You can only really judge a coach on matchday when he has a competitive team

There is no doubt in my mind the current board has a new found faith in the future and Stynes has inspired our supporters the most

in my memory

[Chelly 808]

It's a completely different game these days. It's fully professional, there are 16 teams, interstate travel, programmes favouring certain higher drawing clubs, the interchange, salary caps. the rules etc. All of these make it harder for young teams to climb to the top quickly. It might be a longer ride but I suspect we're still going to enjoy it!

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

It's a completely different game these days. It's fully professional, there are 16 teams, interstate travel, programmes favouring certain higher drawing clubs, the interchange, salary caps. the rules etc. All of these make it harder for young teams to climb to the top quickly. It might be a longer ride but I suspect we're still going to enjoy it!

Good summary and I hope we enjoy the ride and may it be a long one.

[Tatu 416]

For some time now , i've had a funny feeling about 2012..

[Roost It 1,434]

For some time now , i've had a funny feeling about 2012..

Not just Melbourne supporters think "The Demons" are coming in 2012

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

It's laughable how many people (outside MFC) cling to the idea that we'll remain crap forever. History, especially recent history suggests that bottoming out as comprehensively as we have leads directly to a massive leap, most often within 3 years.

I'm not sure next season will be the one, but we can expect as a fanbase, a season in which we CRASH into the top 8 or 4... not just limp in.

At my most positive I have a feeling the first half of next season will be relatively similar to the last few years. Maybe, let's say 4 and 7... At which point the team will be settled and start to click into gear, and we'll reverse the trend, and finish the season at best, with as many wins as losses... after which we'll be the next big thing in the AFL, having taken everyone by surprise. That's a best case scenario though.

2011, look out.

[norwood_demon 196]

I am another crusty old Melbourne supporter who was not quite old enough to appreciate 1964. I believe that you are quite right predicting another Golden Era. MFC has never had such a structured rebuilding program (nor has any other club in my opinion). In one of my few posts, I also noted other similarities with the "pre-Golden"1950s. The Club got “off-the-field” right with Bert Chadwick (a former Brownlow Medalist) as Chairman and the “Football Department” comprising Norm Smith plus Ivor Warne-Smith, Jim Cardwell and Checker Hughes (two of whom had coached VFL sides). On field, MFC had played 19 first-year players in 1951, the year before Norm Smith returned from Fitzroy to coach MFC. Under Norm Smith, the Club won 9 games in 1952 but slumped to 11th with only 3 wins & a draw in 1953. Their first-year players in 1953 included Adams, Melville, Case, Marquis, Williams, Glessen, T Johnson, and one Ronald Dale Barassi (who really struggled initially). The appalling results were attributed to the “inconsistency of youth” and Smith was reappointed as coach in 1954. The youth policy was further enhanced in 1954 with the addition of Big Bob Johnson, Mithen, Dixon, Ridley, Laidlaw & Wilson. The younger players were cycled through the seniors and reserves to aid their development. This experienced administration & football department, a youth policy, and persistence with a “development” coach yielded 6 premierships in the next 10 seasons

Now, MFC is getting the “off field” right again with another Brownlow Medalist as Chairman and Cameron Schwab as CEO. The football department is in experienced hands with Bailey & Connolly (who has also coached an AFL side-albeit Fremantle!?). We have a training base at Casey Fields. “On field”, we are aggressively pursuing a youth policy (for the first time in my memory) with the following players under 21yo (in no particular order): Bartram, Bennell, Blease, Cheney, Frawley, Garland, Grimes, Jetta, Wonaeamirri, Meesen, Morton, Maric, Watts, Jones, Petterd & Garland. Others haven’t even debuted yet: Blease, Jurrah & Strauss (Scully, ?Butcher…but I won’t go there!). Two blokes named Scully & Trengrove might also get games in the future.

I however disagree on your timeframe. Premiership sides have multiple players with >100 games. We need 4 years to "get games into these guys", which is exactly what Dean Bailey is saying. Which brings me to Dean Bailey. I strongly believe that the Club should reappoint him for another two years now. Let him finish what he's started. I could not have asked more of this guy as the coach over the last 2 years. There will be "ups & downs" while we "get games into these guys". The danger of being over-optimistic is that we'll blame the coach if we don't get instant gratification (after 45 years!?). The MFC of the 1950s stuck with Norm Smith, the Red Fox. We need to stick with Dean Bailey whom I believe will become the "Bald Fox".

[The Big Ticket 94]

It's laughable how many people (outside MFC) cling to the idea that we'll remain crap forever. History, especially recent history suggests that bottoming out as comprehensively as we have leads directly to a massive leap, most often within 3 years.

I'm not sure next season will be the one, but we can expect as a fanbase, a season in which we CRASH into the top 8 or 4... not just limp in.

At my most positive I have a feeling the first half of next season will be relatively similar to the last few years. Maybe, let's say 4 and 7... At which point the team will be settled and start to click into gear, and we'll reverse the trend, and finish the season at best, with as many wins as losses... after which we'll be the next big thing in the AFL, having taken everyone by surprise. That's a best case scenario though.

2011, look out.

Very true.

I was having a squiz at BomberBlitz the other day and some of them are very worried about what the MFC might do in the next 10 years. Some of them are saying we could do more damage than what our 50's team did.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,285]

It's laughable how many people (outside MFC) cling to the idea that we'll remain crap forever. History, especially recent history suggests that bottoming out as comprehensively as we have leads directly to a massive leap, most often within 3 years.

I'm not sure next season will be the one, but we can expect as a fanbase, a season in which we CRASH into the top 8 or 4... not just limp in.

At my most positive I have a feeling the first half of next season will be relatively similar to the last few years. Maybe, let's say 4 and 7... At which point the team will be settled and start to click into gear, and we'll reverse the trend, and finish the season at best, with as many wins as losses... after which we'll be the next big thing in the AFL, having taken everyone by surprise. That's a best case scenario though.

2011, look out.

We will play finals in 2011, no doubt in my mind whatsoever. Top 4 in 2012 and then the fun begins. If we don`t win a flag in 2013, we will the following year. The reason I am so certain is because we will have a number of elite players, perhaps superstars in our team which we have really lacked for as long as I can remember in my 40 yrs as a Demon. Grimes, Morton, Watts and Jurrah will become AA players, Sylvia looks like he has decided he will use his freakish talents on the footy field and not King Street, Davey just might keep getting better and our backline is shaping up to be the best in the comp in 2 to 3 years. Dare I mention the expectations of how good Scully n Trengove will be!

Gee , this is gonna be good!

[Sir Why You Little 36,668]

We will play finals in 2011, no doubt in my mind whatsoever. Top 4 in 2012 and then the fun begins. If we don`t win a flag in 2013, we will the following year. The reason I am so certain is because we will have a number of elite players, perhaps superstars in our team which we have really lacked for as long as I can remember in my 40 yrs as a Demon. Grimes, Morton, Watts and Jurrah will become AA players, Sylvia looks like he has decided he will use his freakish talents on the footy field and not King Street, Davey just might keep getting better and our backline is shaping up to be the best in the comp in 2 to 3 years. Dare I mention the expectations of how good Scully n Trengove will be!

Gee , this is gonna be good!

Yep i agree & i Have watched for those same 40 years.

Injury management will tell a lot about success, & Whether the club actually gets stage fright when those Huge Matches occur

That will then really tells us how good Bailey & the FD are.

Jagging a Flag early in that run could make such a difference...2009 the saints should have won but they blew it. Is that there only chance??

Exciting Times ahead.....

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,285]

Yep i agree & i Have watched for those same 40 years.

Injury management will tell a lot about success, & Whether the club actually gets stage fright when those Huge Matches occur

That will then really tells us how good Bailey & the FD are.

Jagging a Flag early in that run could make such a difference...2009 the saints should have won but they blew it. Is that there only chance??

Exciting Times ahead.....

Yep, injuries have cruelled us plenty of times before. We should have won a flag somewhere between 98 and `02, but injuries crippled us. This is the only thing that will stop our surge and as you say, lets hope they have learnt how to manage our seemingly never ending list of injured players.

[Sir Why You Little 36,668]

Yep, injuries have cruelled us plenty of times before. We should have won a flag somewhere between 98 and `02, but injuries crippled us. This is the only thing that will stop our surge and as you say, lets hope they have learnt how to manage our seemingly never ending list of injured players.

It's also above the shoulders too. Convincing the Players & entire Club that we are actually Good enough to win.

It's been so long. I am sure that preface helped Hawthorn in 2008. They knew as a club how to win Premierships.

That '64 footage is from a different world now.

That's why the club have got to be hard edged from now on.

[Crystal Dees 372]

MELBOURNE coach Dean Bailey says the club is set up to prosper when two new clubs enter the AFL.

With Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney set to enter the AFL in 2011 and 2012 respectively, Bailey said patience and careful planning meant the Demons could now enter the next decade with great confidence.

"We're about to enter a period in AFL football in a drafting situation that is unparalleled. We're about to go into this draft, which is compromised to a degree," he said when addressing the faithful at the club's best-and-fairest dinner on Wednesday night.

"The next two, possibly three drafts, they will be compromised - it is not an even playing field with two new teams coming in.

"We've positioned ourselves very well in what we've done in the last two years and what the intentions are this year as well."

On the back of the significant draft concessions awarded to Gold Coast last year and this week to GWS, Melbourne is now one of the best placed clubs to approach the next decade.

But this is only due to recent poor onfield seasons from 2007-09, which included three wooden spoons. The upside is that the Demons have the ability to bounce back strongly over the next 10 years.

Seems the coach is of this view as well. Interesting that he mentions the next 10 years also. As I said at the start, we are in an unprecedented situation with creaming the best players in the past 2-3 drafts prior to the oft termed compromised draft situation. Don't underestimate what consecutive poor drafts can do (remember Carlton?). That is the sentence for all the established teams over the next couple of years. The ever increasing AFL standard has to at least plateau, if not fall, so our actual improvement as a team won't have to be as dramatic as commonly believed and yet I know it will.

Luke Ball is not pivotal to this. He would simply be the cherry on top of the cream we will already have. Take my advice - don't book overseas holidays in September from 2011 onwards until further notice. We've waited long enough!

BRING ON THE DECADE OF THE DEMON!

[Cheesecake 92]

I would love to know for sure what the expectations of the inner sanctum at Melbourne really are. Brock suggested, with his reasons for leaving, that the club had told him 5 or 6 years. Do they really think this? I doubt it, somehow.

There is no doubt that the club is really well positioned to be a dominant force over the next decade. And in 5 or 6 years (assuming no diabolical injury run) we will be a powerhouse. We all know this. But what most of us are more interested in is how soon we will be competitive, and when we might potentially be playing off in a GF.

Can we follow in St Kilda's (02-04) or Carlton's (07-09) foot steps and go from cellar dwellers to competitive in two years, or even do a Hawthorn (05-08) and go all the way. Personally, I think we can. And I think the club should be aiming for this (without disregarding the long term future with dumb decisions, of course).

Does the club really think we are 5-6 years away? I hope not. And I don't think so, either.