Out of interest, what is the specific reason why most people would prefer Watts over Rich (or Naitanui)?

Is it because they perceive him as the best player available?

Wouldn't be surprised to see him play on a wing in his first couple of years at senior level

Agree. From what I've read recently, he's been running through the midfield a bit (and doing quite well) and has also played a bit across HB.

In the past few years when discussions of "who would you want to play at Melbourne" are bandied about, the players thrown up have mainly been tall Forwards. Judd being the exception...

I have seen posters say they have wanted the Pav, Rievolt, Brown.... and Judd.

Someone pointed out that good large forwards are always taken early and that elite mid-fielders are often being traded. Judd, Stevens, Thompson, Johnson...

This year sees J.Brown possibly going but if this happens, it is uncommon for a good KPF to come on the market.

There isnt many real good ones going around.

If Rich and Watts are both elite, it then falls to the question of greatest need.

I believe the gap at Full Forward is larger than the gap in the middle.

The middle has promises being made this weekend.

Because you must strike when you have your opportunity, I want Watts.

i reckon we go watts, develop him. next year With robbo back, miller, bate and newton all playing in the same forward line (bate and miller running as they have big engines)..then robbo and newton closer to goal, we will be a lot better off- woenna, davey crumbing. what a difference it will make to have forwards that arent injured

picks 17 and 19 can get us blease and vickery or the like and they will play next year, but dont get disappointed if watts doesn't play next year- he most likely won't with school and school footy.

Out of interest, what is the specific reason why most people would prefer Watts over Rich (or Naitanui)?

Is it because they perceive him as the best player available?

It is debatable whether he is or isn't the standout No.1 pick and the best available talent. As Dermott Brereton alluded to in his article in the HUN. He even says he is the best available for Melbourne's structure, and if Melbourne are to look at him as a long term option.

He even says he is the best available for Melbourne's structure

Does he?

Does he?

Yep.: -

HE IS a genuine top-five choice in this draft, but I would recommend that he doesn’t play in 2009 at AFL level. Physically, he will get punished. But if Melbourne wants an excellent longterm prospect that will assist its structure from 2010 and beyond, then this boy is a target

In the past few years when discussions of "who would you want to play at Melbourne" are bandied about, the players thrown up have mainly been tall Forwards. Judd being the exception...

I have seen posters say they have wanted the Pav, Rievolt, Brown.... and Judd.

Someone pointed out that good large forwards are always taken early and that elite mid-fielders are often being traded. Judd, Stevens, Thompson, Johnson...

This year sees J.Brown possibly going but if this happens, it is uncommon for a good KPF to come on the market.

There isnt many real good ones going around.

If Rich and Watts are both elite, it then falls to the question of greatest need.

I believe the gap at Full Forward is larger than the gap in the middle.

The middle has promises being made this weekend.

Because you must strike when you have your opportunity, I want Watts.

The way to build a race car IMO, is you start with the chassis (frame), & get that strong, then work the engine (room) power to max tuned for reliablity. Then you'd get the thing pointing well in the direction forward to the destination, Steering & suspension to suit the rest of the package.

If you have a powerfull forwardline before the midfield learn to work their butts off, they simply never will learn to gutrun.

Frame firstup, - defence & basic spine with no frills mids.

Powerplant, - In 'n' under grunt then add the class to rev hard & long.

Handling, - take your stock setup & beef it up to suit the machine, hardness & balance to suit the track to be raced upon.

Another argument worth considering is that, say in 5 years time, Melbourne has a wealth of midfielders and backmen and desperately need a key forward to polish them off - they're a lot harder to get than a classy midfielder.

Not very often you could draft an 18 CHF and he'll deliver in his first year whereas midfielders often do it (Judd, Palmer etc)

from the youtube footage and national championship games i watched, Watts look awesome.

great evasive skills so he creates space when he gets the ball.

very quick, which will help on the lead and in general play also.

very very strong mark, also contested. this is what a kpp needs.

he is only 17 yrs old and will only get better and better.

Watts pros:

- tall, quick, strong mark, smart player, kicks goals... full package

- we need a key forward so badly

Cons--- none obvious, but is question mark whether he is genuinely the best propect in the draft, or perhaps the 3rd,4th or 5th best...

Rich pros:

- of the top midfielders taken in previous drafts, including Marc Murphy, Gibbs, Ellis and Cotchin, Rich is equal to them if not rated even higher!

- he has awesome kicking skills, which is what we lack in a big way.

- our current midfield (Mclean,Jones,Moloney,Valenti,Grimes,Buckley) are all promising, but none have the ability to be a genuine number 1 midfielder star. this guy could be. all the rest of our midfielders would become even better being the 2nd 3rd or 4th best midfielders at our club

- he is probably the best prospect in the draft

Cons------ he is not from melbourne, and prima facie he is not what we most require atm.

Naitanui pros:

- is tall, agile, quick and athletic. he is also VERY aggresive, a great tackler, and hunts the football. he is NOT simply an athlete palying football. his 1%ers are rediculously awesome

- question mark whether he will improve his football smarts...which i find hard to believe... surely an 18yr old kid can only improve from the support of afl coaches and an afl environment.

- even if he doesn't improve his smarts, he will be a top5 in the afl at ruck contests and taps to advantage, he will be the number 1 clearence player in the afl, and the number 1 at 1%ers in the afl...

- if we don't take him, we MIGHT look back in 4 years time and wonder why the fark we didn't choose him (ala Franklin)

- his potential is biggest of any play ever drafted

Cons--- will he improve his footy smarts

We're not going to win a premiership in the next 4 years. So we don't need an immediate impact from whoever we draft. I don't know too much about who's available in this draft, but from what I can glean from past drafts, a KPP is much harder to find after the first round. Midfielders seem to be draftable from later in the draft. So if it was up to me, we'd take Watts, then use the next couple of picks on midfielders. But I have to agree with Brereton, where he says that we should consult Neitz, Lyon and Schwarz first.

Not very often you could draft an 18 CHF and he'll deliver in his first year whereas midfielders often do it (Judd, Palmer etc)

Who's to say Watts will or won't deliver in his first year. As Brereton states he would recommend he not play much if not at all, in his first year.

That's the point I was making wasn't it? I'm saying that you're looking for Watts to be playing in 5 years, not 1 or 2, whereas after 4 years when Watts is about to burst out you can pick up a ready made midfielder to complete everything

That's the point I was making wasn't it? I'm saying that you're looking for Watts to be playing in 5 years, not 1 or 2, whereas after 4 years when Watts is about to burst out you can pick up a ready made midfielder to complete everything

And what tree's do they grow on?

That's the point I was making wasn't it? I'm saying that you're looking for Watts to be playing in 5 years, not 1 or 2, whereas after 4 years when Watts is about to burst out you can pick up a ready made midfielder to complete everything

Correct. I was just adding to your point, not questionning it.

And what tree's do they grow on?

The midfielders grow on more trees than "Excellent" KPP forwards do...

just making sure we're on the same page

There are more star midfielders in the game than there are star key forwards. But there is strong evidence that you need more than one star midfielder in your side whereas there is no proof that you need any star key forwards at all.

The question is: Are our resources better placed in a midfielder than they are in a key forward?

we need to trade jones for a another inside top 20pick. 1. 17 and 19 arent going to help us enough for the future..we need more

No problem.

Honestly, if you have a look at the footage available on YouTube and other highlights - you can see he has something SPECIAL (thanks Bruce) about him (Watts). Players that appear to have time with the ball in close (ie james Hird) are hard to come by.

There are more star midfielders in the game than there are star key forwards. But there is strong evidence that you need more than one star midfielder in your side whereas there is no proof that you need any star key forwards at all.

The question is: Are our resources better placed in a midfielder than they are in a key forward?

Well Watts apparently does pretty well in the middle so maybe he could be both