Diamond_Jim

I had intended a double negative in the sense that you cannot ever be disappointed because you will never find out that he doesn't

Pascal was the inventor of game theory.. (mind you it was not called that at the time). Game theory works on the concept that both sides will take the probability that seems to give them the best outcome. A belief in God was the example he used to demonstrate his theory in that it is better to believe that he exists because you can never be disappointed when you find out he doesn't.

works only if Freo are near enough to the bottom to ensure no other club takes him first. If Hogan rejects the offer he doesn't play. Big stakes and in a way a silly deal from Hogan's perspective in the sense that the picks are inter club... he's only interested in the length of contract and dollars per year. So in short unless Freo end up bottom any deal from this year is on the table next year if not better. As an aside I cannot understand why Hogan does not want to go to WCE at the end of next year instead of to the perennial cellar dweller that Freo could be destined to become.

Dockerland thinking..... "I think Bell offering pick 11 for Kelly was a master stroke, I think he knew there was no chance he would accept the offer but at the same time Melbourne would've been peeing in their pants thinking that Freo is now trading away the pick we were offering up for Hogan. This may be the attitude adjustment Melbourne need to take our offer of pick 11 plus our 2nd pick next year. "

Could it be another version of MFCSS Are we managing to seize a perceived loss out of an an unloseable transaction

This thread is beginning to resemble Pascal's wager. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager

needs a player to be added.... someone who is regular 22 and ranked in that 8-15 area of the playing list. Perhaps a Fritsch might do it but I would hate to see him go. Then of course you need to find the money.... sure we could back end but that will get in the way of more money for the likes of Oliver etc as they come out of contract. Never say never but it just strikes me as a bridge too far.

Hard to see GC going for it but I am sure the FD are running through all the combinations. Remember though the traded player has to agree to the trade and GC isn't exactly a destination club at present.

does it deserve a triple century...like Bradman's average there's something MFCSS about just falling short

May is reportedly on around $900k. Mahoney was probably being upfront when he said we couldn't afford him and keep Hogan. Not to mention finding the requisite draft pick to trade. May to the bulldogs is my bet

Still think GC will want to move May along. Pick 7 from the Dogs will do it. Will May stand on his digs and wait another year.... not sure

aha Sherlock.... I was wondering when the manager was going to be mentioned. Starting to make sense. Was worried that Mahoney had said 5 and 23 but it was the manager. It was the dog not barking that was strange Watson.

So it's off to the dogs for young May. I feel strangely sorry for whoever ends up as pick 7 in the draft

GC will want a better than mid first rounder....( Bulldogs pick 7 a possibility) or a late first rounder and a player. No ...Hunt won't fly We really don't have a player to offer Hard to see us getting back into this deal even assuming we're allowed to do something with our first rounder for 2019

a sample of the responses on Dockerland: "Great call Belly! You have in one fell swoop killed off Melbourne’s hopes of getting May from GC and called them out for asking overs for an injury-prone (and currently injured) WA player. If Melbourne are fair dinkum in wanting May watch for their back-sliding and offers of ‘concilliation’ over the weekend to get this trade back on the rails. Now just sew up the Lobb and Langdon deals with the second and third rounders we got as part of the pick 6 swap. "

have we discussed the relative benefits of Scotch fingers... excellent dunking if one is into that kind of thing

now is the time to cuddle up to young Jesse and sign him for four years at $800-900k that's what a Hawthorn ... the family club... would do

Las Vegas time... it makes some sense

ok but under my hypothetical he's only worth a late first rounder now. Suppose what I am positing is that if we keep him and he plays 22 plus games and kicks 50 his comparative worth sky rockets. I was very much into the trade Hogan for value scenario but if the value proposition is being impacted by a perceived injury my mind says keep him and play it out.

Playing hypotheticals... what if the medical report said "strained (or similar) navicular". Can be managed and with good management that may include resting of the player for 4-6 weeks movement should be relatively unaffected. Let's face it medical opinions like those of lawyers are never clear cut. Fast forward to 2019 and he plays 14 games for MFC while he is injured/rested for the remainder. Kicks 38 goals. Is he worth more or less next year?

One doesn't put much faith in opposition fan sites but the few posts on Dockerland that other posters have kindly linked to reveal an almost universal belief that the injury to Hogan severely impacts his worth. Hope they are not proved correct. https://www.dockerland.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&view=topic&Itemid=251&catid=1&id=492648&limitstart=70 On the other hand there are now a few emerging with comments to the affect that they don't want to miss the opportunity. Always interesting looking at things from others perspectives.

this was probably the most developed thought : "What rarified air we are in presently. The club that wants to poach a dual club champion off us played their hand too early and now have to pay significant overs to get the deal done or both player and the other club look like dills. Then to top it all off a player we’ve been chasing for years pops back on the radar and whilst the host club wants to screw us as hard as they can - find themselves desperate for draft picks to secure a trade target of their own. So instead they roll out their big guns (GLyon) to try and scare us into a lopsided deal when they might just have to take what we’re offering and not get the ‘overs’ they were after. Maybe it’s just lucky timing but for someone who seems to have had luck on his side most of his career to date - Belly sure knows when to time his run."

think Freo might be trying to tell us something.. strange thing is that the offer if true would not exactly thrill JH if that's all they think he's worth. Oh well .... perhaps another club might step in

boy... Jesse's value is going down quicker than the NASDAQ Time to do some short selling perhaps

meanwhile a woman is forcibly removed from a plane in Florida because she insisted upon taking along her emotional support animal.... a red squirrel http://www.traveller.com.au/woman-removed-from-frontier-airlines-flight-after-bringing-emotional-support-squirrel-on-board-h16ht6 PS I suspect the page count on this thread will exceed the Australian cricket teams score in the final innings tonight