Lucifers Hero

I'm still very optimistic about this game. They beat us by 2 points in rain soaked Alice in 2023 when the score line was 7.5 to our 5.15. They were lucky Lever had a brain fade in the last minutes, didn't man the mark and let Kelly kick a 60m goal. So I wouldn't think they are much better than us playing when wet. Last year they beat us by 2 points again in 2024 with a score line of 13.7 to our 12.11 at the G. Their midfield were very good but we had no Petracca, an underdone Oliver and Viney was having a poor patch of form. Of their 2024 team Hogan, Perryman, Peating, Briggs and maybe Green won't be there. We will be missing a few, namely Pickett and to a lesser extent McVee and ANB but have Oliver and Petracca back. It is a shame Melksham isn't playing as he is very good as a 'defensive forward/decoy' to take Taylor away from the play. Not sure we have anyone else that is respected enough that Taylor has to follow. It will be close but don't fear them at all.

Yes, that is my reservation; just not sure he is a 'team' first player. And we now have Langford; not quite in the same class as Harley but potentially just as valuable. This year will tell us a lot about his character.

I think that is 80,000 for the game vs Richmond. Probably much lower than prior years Round 1.

I posted after the Freo game that our chipping around and changing angles in our d50 appeared to avoid the 'kick it to Max' tactic. But we were slow and tentative with it. Part of the tentativeness is up field players not positioned to accept the ball then run and carry it. I think that is why Windsor is down back. I think we will get better at it and hopefully it will happen this week. Otherwise we will be relying on our around the ground defence and pressure to stop the speedy GWS, something the Pies didn't do. As an aside reckon Sparrow could go wtih Finn Callaghan. Even if Sparrow doesn't get a kick stopping him will go a way to stopping GWS or at least slowing them down.

Yes, GWS were fast in part because the Pies' laziness let them. The Pies didn't chase with intent nor apply much pressure. These stats tell the story: Tackles: GWS 59. Pies 39 1%: GWS 43. Pies 34 39 tackles is disgraceful! 59 tackles is about average but then GWS didn't need to tackle. The lack of pressure from Coll made for GWS quick transition and open f50. Lets not forget Carlton thrashed GWS the week before. Yes a practice game but ... No doubt we will have our work cut out for us this week but our around the ground defence/pressure will bring GWS back down to earth. Stop them in their tracks is the way to go and I reckon we have the players to do just that. They ran the game out well but our fresh legs should help us slow them down.

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ... I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

@WheeloRatings The ABC have rightly given you credit in this article: unpredictable-afl-season-2025-set-to-be-most-open-in-years It was remarkably accurate in 2024 wins eg Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees rises and falls. Their respective 2023 wins were 7, 12, 18 and 16. The actual for 2024 is in the table below. The 'draw strength' must have been statistically very significant. Does the 'Pythagorean' thing have much statistical credibility? Accounting for underlying team strength (Pythagorean expectation) and draw strength The 11 predicted wins for us surprises me given we have a statistically easy draw. If 'Pythagorean' does have cred then 2025 doesn't look too good for us. Think I'll ignore their 'logic' and continue to dream ... ... still confident that 2025 will atone 2023 ...

Methinks we are saying the same thing: I call it a 'playoff' you call it a 'wild card'. It was very obvious as soon as talk of a reschedule started what the AFL for was angling for. They would be rubbing their hands with glee! That final game is likely to be a 'playoff' for a finals spot as one or both GCS and Ess will be around the top 8 this year. Even if only one is around the top 8, it could still shape the 8 if that team wins or looses the 'playoff' game. Especially, if it is % that decides those spots. For example if GCS is 7th, 8th or even 6th, with only one win or % keeping them in the 8, if they lose the game or lose % they could drop out of the 8 and 9th come in. Or if Ess/GCS are 9th and a game or % keeping them out of the 8 they could get in at the expense of the 8th team. The AFL would be beside themselves with the prospect of such or similar scenarios

AFL would be very happy and would be hoping the Ess vs GCS will be a playoff for a finals spot. It is a defacto test of their much vaunted idea of having pre finals playoffs between teams 6th to 10th.

I think others have given a bit of insight into why JUH isn't a good idea. As an aside, Clarrie looked physically really healthy and sounded emotionally really healthy in the interview going round. Reckon he has resolved to stay that way.

I doubt JUH would be welcome. The influence on Clarrie would be Hunter Mk 11.

A few key players from their finals team either departed or injured. Stringer is also out. Not conducive to their synergy. Our injury list is much better comprising of less critical players. It is at the G. We will win this!

James Sicily

That should help us but I was really looking forward to watching him play live again.

We countered this in 2021 with Langdon and Brayshaw hovering on the def side of our f50 arc and when the opp got the ball they started rolling back toward our d50 preventing the opp from getting a run and carry game going. It gave our def 6 time to man inside the d50 arc and behind to defend the goals. Opp had to kick over the top where it was often marked or if they got past Langdon and Brayshaw they had to contend with Bowey, Hunt, Rivers and Salem. Some teams got thru by 'running at the defenders' but the above defence worked very well. That also enabled us to rebound quickly when the opp turned the ball over and caught them out of position forward of centre. Brayshaw and Langdon were very good at running both ways. Also, in 2021 Lever often called players back to 'defend the corridor'. The names may have changed but the structure and roles worked and imv we have the players to perform the roles as per 2021. No idea what happened to that (imv, very effective) defence and as you point out we now play a very high forward press including our mids and defenders often only May in our def half. Just too easy for opp to break thru for easy over-the-top goals or fast running with our players chasing. I'm not suggesting we should revert to the 2021 game style in toto but the above was very effective and I wouldn't mind seeing it in our game plan again, at least some of the time.

Yes @picket fence is a master of colourful language and not trigger the censor !!! With the occasional whimsical prose! 😉

On first read of that it sounds critical of my post which was only about Fritsch's (unresolved) weaknesses. Then I realised you generally agree with it - just not sure how that triggered the rest of your commentary rant 🙃

Is this some sort of new quiz without any clues ... Maybe just give us the stats ... Preempting the stats: average stats over a year(or years) aren't helpful when we are loosing Finals or key games due to poor goal kicking. To analyse the impact it is a game by game thing. If we kick more goals than points we win most games.

I understand what we are trying to do. That Hawks succeeded with that tactic does not mean we will and rise up the ladder on the back of it which was the implication of your original, unedited post. We will rise up the ladder but it will be easier if we make the d50 switching and changing angles more effective.

What really hurts us is that opp know he doesn't have, nor has ever shown, second efforts or do the 1% so they double team someone else.

Can't see how that has any bearing on us! What's more I saw little of the run and carry yesterday or in recent years. It was Freo who put on a run and carry master class when at least 2-3 times they went from d50 to score a goal without us touching the ball or laying a tackle.

The difference in the goal accuracy was theirs were mostly within the 40m range (due to their quick transition and our poor defence). Ours were outside that range imv mainly because we didn't present or look for options. I don't know why we persist with taking long range kicks when our set shots accuracy is historically poor. Is it ball movement strategy that we don't take the ball deep into our f50 or do players overestimate their ability? We kicked ourselves out of a Prelim and maybe a premiership in 2023. I don't think I can take another year of those score lines, especially in the first quarter when better accuracy should give us the momentum to win the game. And it is so deflating at the ground to hear so many groans - it doesn't help the 'make some noise campaign'.

The chipping in defence reminded me of the Neeld times. It was slow, tentative, lob kicks. It was a tactic easy to defend/intercept and we showed little confidence using it. It is one thing to switch and make the opp defend transition quite another to be locked in their f50. Asking for trouble. I'm guessing it is to rely less on the 'kick it to Max' tactic that became soooooooooo predictable. The tactic relies on quick pin point passes but I don't know we have the skills to play that way. I don't mind 'switch' and change angles tactics but we need to practice it a lot more and get much better at it.

Bell would want Kozzie, Rivers and McVee in return for Jackson as his opening gambit! Oh and throw in Roo'! Thankfully, Bell left Freo a few years ago who now seem more honest brokers.

That means the player arrives at 10.10 pm (body clock time) after playing some game time and rushing to the airport from Casey to catch that flight. Arrives at a Perth hotel about 11.00pm (body clock time) or if going to Mandurah arrives there about midnight - hardly good prep to play tomorrow (even off the bench) in 32 degree heat. The return trip from Mandurah to their home will take about 7-8 hours. I reckon we should play with 7 off the bench rather put a player thru that for a prac match.