Lucifers Hero

A more informative and reasoned commentary by Michael Gleeson. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/fremantle-edging-closer-to-decision-on-hogan-20181010-p508x3.html Key points (paaphrasing): Full insight into navicular injury will not be available till after trade period ends Freo Board has met to discuss Hogan Talks are ongoing and progressing between the clubs Melbourne has shifted from its initial position of demanding two top-10 picks Discussions on a possible move of contracted Suns co-captain and full-back Steven May to Melbourne would not happen until a possible Hogan move was confirmed The Demons want the Dockers' first pick, but negotiations will then centre on what else would be required to complete a deal and whether it requires another first-round pick this year or next year, or a second-round selection. I don't think Mahoney has gone soft - just practical to get the deal done. Two top 10 picks always unlikely and just his opening ambit. My read is the deal will now happen.

My bad. I got the two Toms mixed up. My post was referring to Tom Morris from Fox Footy who is a dee supporter. Deserved to get the boot from club podcast and clearly is no longer ITK.

Just shows how far Browne Morris has been shut out by demon insiders. He now relies on other media outlets or guesses. Is a demon supporter and early this year he was doing the club podcast, then kept leaking stuff which is pretty low. Got the boot from the podcast. Clearly is now a persona non gratia! Edit: Referred to Tom Browne but my post was intended to be about Tom Morris

May clearly favours us but that could be because we are more likely to get a trade done. His other suitors are equally well placed to play finals. The longer the Neale/Hogan thing drags on the greater the likelihood those clubs will ramp up their efforts for May. Eddie especially will go after May big time and the Pies list Manager Ned Guy was May's player manager until he joined the Pies last year. Time is ticking!

Fabulous news. Very difficult decision. Look forward to him running around the G for the next 3 years!

Nephew of Michael Long, related to Rioli family. Essendon also interested. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-10/dons-circle-contracted-nephew-long-of-club-great "The hard-nosed forward has impressed since being the No.25 pick in the 2016 NAB AFL Draft and only a broken right foot prevented him playing more than 10 games this year". "AFL.com.au understands the 21-year-old's preference is to stay at the Saints and he is contracted for next year, but his name has been raised in trade discussions this week". Part of the Kent trade, perhaps.

Of course not and didn't mean to imply such! Just a starting point. Mahoney asked for high end picks. Can't bend over to 1 high pick and late 2nd round pick. #5 and a pick in the 8-14 range (2018 or 2019) +/- later pick trade, Freo favour.

Crikey, Can't see us accepting #5 and #32 (a late second round pick). Has to be #5 and a mid to low 1st round 2018 or 2019!!

Movement at the station: SEN reporting that Neale deal will get done with 2018 #5 and #32 from the Lions. Hopefully, just a matter of time now! Edit: not suggesting we accept those for Jessie, see them as a starting point.

Known as New Generation Academy (NGA). Not sure of the boundaries. Essentially a club gets first call to take a player in the draft on the same basis as other Academy ie based on points. This year we have Toby Bedford available:

Sounds good! That would make it 5 or 6 in 2018 plus Brisbane's 1st round 2019. Brisbane will go up the ladder but can't see them making the eight so 2019 would be about pick 8-10. I'd take that!

Brisbane and Gold Coast have exchanged picks. The Lions have received picks 32, 41, 44 and 77 in this year's draft, while the Suns acquired 24, 58 and 79.http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-10/brisbane-and-gold-coast-in-draft-pick-swap Brisbane want the points for their academy players but giving up pick 24 doesn't help the bid to get Neale over the line. They may be looking to give up a player (pure guesswork on my part as Lions running out of usable picks). So, maybe further delay on Hogan. Shame we couldn't get pick 13 from Sydney to package up a May deal and break the nexus with the Hogan deal.

Preuss is also a bit of insurance if we don't get May. Won't be as good as May to take on the 'gorilla' defenders but as I said some insurance. Lots of reasons to have Preuss over Tyson. As Mahoney said the goal this trade period is team balance. Player value more important than pick value.

That may be mfc position but they can't force him to go and he stays another year as unpalatable as that may be. It is the manager's advice I was commenting on. Selling the kid short telling him to wait for a better deal next year. Get the best deal he can now. A deal can't be that much better next year.

Why would manager think Freo will offer more next year if Jesse turns them down now? Betting on WCE coming into the game, perhaps. High risk stakes if that is the case. And how much more does Jesse (or manager) want. If the kid wants to go home, let him. Why put him thru another year of angst and speculation. The extra $$ (after tax/manager fee) for Jesse, surely can't be be worth that. If Jesse turns Freo down for $$ he may never get back to Perth.

I wonder whether the GCS position of a trade this year must be approx next years FA comp pick, is being overplayed. They can get a player(s) now to develop/contribute rather than waste a year with May playing out time. They have other good leaders: David Swallow and two metre Pete is pretty good value, if they can get him on the park. One would think the environment and culture needs to come before draft picks. Agree a future 1st round won't get it done, but I have a hunch they might give him up for less than their posturing suggests. A complex trade, camouflaged with swapping of current/future later round picks...

I know that. I posted how we have the sal cap space and how the May/Hogan deals are separate, in the May thread about 30 min ago:

Sounds like fake news to me!!

SFebes has it:

Didn't realise you were such a hip dude!

Read the tea leaves, dw...

I don't think we would wait a year. It looks like May in, is priority 1. Followed by Jesse out, a close second. If we found a way to get May independently of the Hogan trade, the tea leaves are saying we would still trade Jesse out but may be more accommodating in what trade we accept.

And Tyson is interested in North. Tyson was reportedly on $500k pa. Factor in the Kent trade, the more expensive delists/retirements (Vince, Pedersen, Bugg) and the likelihood of Aaron going ? should give us enough cap space to pick up May. And, I reckon we will still have some coin in the kitty to pay our other trade in players. So if we can find a trade that will satisfy GCS we can get May regardless of what Jesse does.

Looks like we are getting closer: "The last bit of news for the day, which we must stress is little more than a whisper, is that Steven May had reportedly requested a trade from Gold Coast to Melbourne. Given the Demons had already claimed they didn’t have room for both May and Jesse Hogan in the side, you would have to think some progress on the Hogan-to-Fremantle front had been made for that development to have any truth to it." https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/10/09/afl-trade-wrap-day-3-dylan-shiel-scott-lycett-chad-wingard-and-more/ Deadline for Jesse tomorrow then? Take your pick: Melbourne time, Perth time, Bali time!!

Pretty sure the deal is significantly less overall. Latest spin is the lure of a premiership is what sold him... Nah, I like the brown paper bags theory and @M_9 's reminder of their billionaire ex President... ? ...who probably has lots of private jets to fly Mr Shiel around...