Lucifers Hero

Here is a hypothetical to mull over: GCS trade pick 2 to Port for their 9 and 10 (assuming Polec gets to North) so Port can get Lokusius, Rozee or Rankine, then GCS will have picks 3, 9, 10 in 2018. Demons trade Hogan for pick 5 (assuming Neale gets to Brisbane) and Freo's 1st round 2019 pick (+/- later picks maybe - Freo's favour). GCS, may take Freo's 2019 1st round pick for May to give them an extra pick next year. We keep pick 5 (6 post Lynch comp pick) in 2018. Adelaide have picks 7 and 15 so could also enter the fray for GCS pick 2/3. Port and Adelaide are desperate to get the SA lads so don't assume GCS will take picks 2 and 3 to the draft! If they trade out of both 2 and 3 they could end up with 5, 7, 9, 10 and 15 in 2018! Lots of permutations around those combos! Stranger things have happened!

Not meaning to be be defensive but my post was a week ago (and it still looks on the money)! My main point was that Port wanted one of the SA lads and Freo's pick 4 or 5 (Neale) wouldn't get the job done thereby debunking speculation that Port would trade them 9 and 10. I was hypothesising that the Saints pick 3 would be a better option for Port. A week later, not much has changed in my view. I am one of the few on here that never believed Port were remotely interested in doing the Freo deal. It was a media beat up swallowed hook line and sinker by many to salivate over the Hogan trade possibilities. You may be right that Saints pick 3 still won't be enough to get Lokusius or Rankine. There are rumours that they have asked GCS not to draft them. I doubt GCS will draft both SA lads if they are a flight risk. If they draft only one of them, the Saints pick 3 will get the other. To me this side-show is the more fascinating part of the trade period! What will make it even more fascinating is what happens if Lokusius or Rankine don't go top 3 and what deals happen during the draft (Live Pick Trading). I reckon not many in the media or on Demonland seem aware of LPT impact on picks at the draft. I suspect not many DL's read this thread as I posted on it a week or two ago. To put another hypothesis, if GCS end up with Pick 5 (Neale/Hogan/May trade) they may be prepared to deal #2 to Port for 9 and 10 and they can take Lynch pick (3), 5, 9 and 10 to the draft. A very nice bounty to choose players that are more likely to stay. To the Hogan trade. As I never thought Port's pick 9 and 10 were bound for Freo, I never thought we would get 4 and 5 and that pick 5 (Neale) and Freo's first round 2019, (likely to be a top 10) to be far more realistic. Maybe some later pick swaps in Freo's favour. Who knows GCS may want an extra 2019 top 10 pick and instead of the 2018 pick 5, be willing to take Freo's 2019 Ist rounder for May (if my GCS/Port hypothesis above were to happen and they get 9 and10 this year). Believe it or not I don't usually hypothesise on picks and players as it is the end result that counts but the sideshow re the SA posturing was far too fascinating to not air somewhere! Note: all pick references are before Lynch pick 3. Edit: Love your posting and what you have brought to his site for the trade period...where have you been...great value!

Love that. In part because it shows the guy's character and in part it stymies North! Apparently, Polec was recently skiting that he would be playing with Gaff next year. Counted chickens a bit early, it seems!! Edit: Not confirmed but increasingly likely ? https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/west-coast-eagles/afl-free-agency-2018-andrew-gaff-reportedly-leaning-toward-staying-with-west-coast-eagles-ng-b88983415z

Our 2nd rnd pick is currently #34. I'm not into guessing the value of picks/players but that does look high for someone they are pushing out the door. Usually, it is pick 60+ for these situations. Hope there is a gentleman's agreement attached to the KK deal that says they don't push too hard on a trade for May!

GCS made another major blunder last year with a disastrous deal involving WCE: WCE traded to GCS their 2017 pick 50 and their 2018 first pick ( #18). They got back 2017 picks 21, 26, 37, and a GCS 2018 second pick (#20). The net impact in 2018 for the Eageles is a two pick downgrade!! With #21, #26, #37 in 2017 they picked Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan, and Jack Petrucelle. WCE made out like absolute bandits. GCS gambled they would go up the ladder and WCE would go down. The opposite happened and were badly burnt. As you say with Cameron now on board they will much smarter at the trade table and the draft.

Clubs learnt from the 2016 Gipps fiasco when both Adelaide and Carlton went public, dug their heals in and ended up with egg on face. The process for a contracted player now is: player talks to other club, clubs talk to each other, if deal can be done player announces request for trade. All this happens behind closed doors. If no deal can be done no player trade request. Numerous trades in the pipeline right now are following that pattern. A few examples: Hogan, May, Vandenberg, Wingard, Neale, Shiel. So, don't be fooled. Contracted player will say nothing until clubs have things sorted. In the meantime everything else is fugazzi!

They already have picks 2 and 3 that will bring in top end talent. Some might say the more talent the better! But how many 18 yo kids can you bring in all at once when there is no established leadership and little culture. GCS will be desperate to set up for a more successful 2019. So, as alluded to in my post above a top 5 pick for May won't necessarily be as critical as a more mature list and a better culture. If he goes, they will trade him for the best deal they can get which in all probability won't be a top 5 pick. If we were to get 2 picks in the 6 -10 range from Freo I would think GCS will take one without too much fanfare.

The media is pushing the line that "GCS will get a top 3 pick for May as an FA next year so a trade should be a top 5 pick". GCS are making noises for a high pick but are they really committed to that? They know that if they push that line too hard they are admitting there will be no improvement at GCS next year. ie No Hope! That makes for a tough sell to the AFL, sponsors, members, draftees and potential trades. When it gets down to the wire they might just accept a lower pick or a combo of picks and players as they must set up to improve in 2019 and a top 5 pick, 18 yo kid is not going to do that. .

Sounds like he is gone ? . Tom Harley: “We have been open to exploring that and had a conversation with Aaron. We have been liaising with Melbourne around that so if we could facilitate something that would be great".

Dedicated Demon Annual – full amount deducted from your credit card on 25th October each year. Dedicated Demon Monthly – your annual membership fee is divided into ten monthly instalments (November to August) and deducted monthly from your credit card on the first business day of each month. Payments commence upon receipt of your application, or on 1 November for rolling payment plans. https://membership.melbournefc.com.au/dedicated-demon Not related to your query - we should see a big flip in membership numbers after Oct 25, then again after Nov 1 when the rollovers happen!

I get all that. Being chased by Freo for a long time is certainly a consideration but does he want football success or not? He has spent 6 years at a struggling club and is facing something similar at Freo. It will be difficult to play his best football at a club that is rebuilding. I think we are about to find out where football success really sits in Jesse's life. Maybe he just wants to play with his mates at Freo. Whatever makes him happy, I guess. As an aside, I keep reading he was a Crows supporter but Wikipedia, which is not always right, says he was born and raised in Perth.

If true it is odd that Hogan would exclude WCE entirely. One wonders why he would be so fixated on Freo (barracking for them in is youth seems a flimsy reason). Given he wants to return to WA one would think he looks at the potential for football success and considers all options. From afar, it seems WCE have it over Freo on and off the field. A strange cat, is Jesse.

I was just trying to avoid it being derailed by folks complaining about AFL/Ticketek/Ballots/Barcodes etc. Your post is very positive - exactly what we need in this thread. Yes, it is a great time to get behind the club and as you say Goodwin et al are doing a great job of rallying the fans. A 90,000+ finals crowd is testament to that. From various posts above it seems our premium memberships (and maybe the GFG) are sold out which is a good sign. It all points to being 'relevant' again and can only help attract players to the club. A great time to be a Dees supporter!

There are many permutations for Port and Adelaide and I would imagine they are both talking earnestly to the clubs with picks 1-5. Their need to deal to trump each other is what will make it fascinating. They may end up so focused on 'winning the race' that they lose track of the real value they hold.

Bulldogs seem interested in Wingard again and "The Dogs are likely to dangle their first-round pick, currently selection six, as part of the deal to get the Power to trade them the two-time All Australian". http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/no-doubt-the-bulldogs-are-keen-on-chad This would dash Freo's hopes of getting Port's pick 9 and 10 for their pick 4 or 5. So Freo will only have 4 and 5 and they certainly won't give both up and our chances of getting two top 10 picks go down the gurgler. Depending on their expectations for 2019 they might give up their 2019 1st pick and get something back. Or it may be pick 5 and a player for Jessie. Simply, Freo can't trade what they don't have/can't get. Port will go to the draft with 6, 9 and 10 if they trade Wingard and Polec. As an aside, the sideshow to see which of Adel and Port position themselves highest to get the SA talent will be fascinating.

He won't be part of the May deal -The May deal being dependent on a Jesse deal and it won't be done early next week!

I noticed the club has removed the player calendar from the Redlegs and Trident packages, which is disappointing as I really enjoy using it. Oddly, it is free for Redlegs and Trident, if you set up automatic renewal with annual or monthly payments to a credit card. I get the club wants members to renew without having to think too much about it. The problem is that if you pay in advance via a credit card on-line or over the phone, you don't get the calendar which is weird as the early cash flow is better for the club than the monthly auto payments. I have written to the club to see how else to obtain the calendar. Shall report back when I hear.

I'm guessing that Kade K nominating us and the prospect or recruiting Toby Bedford (our Next Gen Academy player) are considered upgrades on Dion. Re the list numbers: Out: 8 (including Kent, excluding Hogan and delisted rookies). ? Ins: (excluding May): 3 draft picks (minimum requirement), Kade K, probably Toby Bedford, Preuss, Senior offers to upgrade Keilty and T smith That is a possible 8 in, altho it is unlikely all will eventuate. That leaves 3 or 4 'A' rookie spots to fill in the preseason/rookie draft (if we choose to fill all rookie spots). What becomes interesting now is who else we let go: AVB, Tyson, Garlett??? More water to go under the bridge.

Too many factors at play for me to get into the pick # discussion. But I guess it comes down to whether we have a target high in the draft. Given our mo, if we get enough trade currency in for the May deal and for our other targets the actual draft pick #'s aren't such a big deal. The pick #s for Hogan might outrage some fans but if we get the list we want so be it.

WOW! To hear this from you gives it some real cred. If I recall correctly, you nailed the progress of the Jesse negotiations during the pre trade period in 2016. And you nailed the progress of the Lever negotiations last year. It came to pass just as you had described. Your don't post often but you have been right on the money! Thanks for your input. The fun and games are just starting!

Nice hypothetical! It would really snooker North: choose between Polec or Gaff!! Your underlying point is valid. If WCE want Jesse they will find the trade currency to make it happen. They can package up their 2018/2019 picks (to other clubs) to find a deal that we can agree with. Any WCE players we would be interested in, for a Jesse deal? Having said that I reckon WCE are posturing! Their fans would be asking the big question: Why aren't we chasing Jesse? WCE can't be seen to be doing nothing. Their fans would love the theater of giving Freo a fright and watching them squirm, even if they don't get Jesse.

The heat on Freo just went up on Freo: "WEST Coast coach Adam Simpson hasn't ruled out pursuing Jesse Hogan, declaring the Eagles are "all ears" if the star Melbourne forward...want to come home". http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/eagles-all-ears-if-hogan-kelly-want-wa-return Eagles don't have the sal cap or the trade currency to better a Freo deal but it certainly puts the pressure on Freo to get a deal done. Very clever by WCE it forces Freo to pay the max which weakens their position on other list management decisions and in a two horse town it by default strengthens WCE's position. Its a mini version of Packer forcing Ch7 to pay max price for AFL TV rights! Thank you, Eagles ?

As an aside we went thru this little dance with Jesse with his last contract extension. It was announced on Oct 4 2016, a few days before the trade period started. I recall learned chat here on DL that he had been given an ultimatum: extend the contract now or we will trade you. The timing of that contract supports that chat. I suspect the same thing is happening now, except maybe a tougher stance on extension terms. Can't imagine the club wanting this little dance to happen every two years. For the club, for the team, for Jesse he needs to commit for the long haul or he goes. I really don't think there is a satisfactory middle road here.

That might suit Hogan but I can't imagine the club buying it. He gets the mega deal and we get pick 16-18 as AFL comp when he goes as an FA. He won't get a one year extension! Leaving mfc as an FA won't happen. The real heat is on Hogan - does he want a another year of media 'go home' speculation. With this mooted move to go home now the speculation will become stratospheric in 2019. He is a private guy, I reckon he will choose to go now and get on with his life.

Can't wait for ET's response! ?