Lucifers Hero

With the possibility of Hawthorn getting picks for traded out players, GWS return picks (for say pick 10) and future pick exchange (GWS and Hawks) it is really hard to foresee what might happen, especially after the first round. Even harder to consider how their trades with other clubs might pan out. So, I won't hazard a guess. Just saying that posters may have misjudged GWS' bargaining position when it comes to splitting pick #2. They could easily have 3 mid first round picks to play with and multiple clubs to deal with.

Maybe the media pundits are wrong. But, looking at it logically: GWS can't afford to keep Patton with his big 2020 salary from a back-ended contract. Patton has already earnt millions. At the Hawks he knows he will get great medical treatment (ala Burgoyne, O'Meara, Scully). I'm guessing those factors and the best chance to rebuild his career mean a lot more than $$ right now. if he proves he can play 20-24 games a year the $$ will come back. A healthy Patton is worth more than a first round pick. But like Scully, if they can offload Patton's salary they will discount the trade value Hawks have pick 10 - will that be part of the deal? The significance for this thread is that GWS may have a lot more to play with (ie 3 mid first round picks) and many more options in negotiating a pick 2 split.

Patton is contracted so comp picks don't come into play. Hawks need to trade for him.

My guess it will be at least 10 players out. Add Guy Walker to the 3 names I just posted. And Frost is rumoured to be traded. That is 10 outs. And I wouldn't be surprised if another contracted player isn't traded.

Not sure why 8 is a magic number but if you want 3 more names: Stretch, Kennedy Harris, J Wagner still un-contracted and like other OOC players no rumours that they have re-sgined (and announcements yet to be made).

GWS are looking for a mid 1st round pick for Patton jonathan-patton-set-to-join-hawthorn apparently on about $360K. As an aside, Patton is reported to have been fit to play since July but chose not to, to avoid injury and derail the trade. patton-places-career-on-hold-amid-near-certain-hawks-move It reports he has a lucrative back-ended deal so it will be a lot of money off GWS's books. If Patton goes for a big paycut to around $360 (AFL average) it makes me think fans greatly overestimate what some players will play for and that not all trades involve big $$.

He has been very open about his personal issues: allen-christensen-reveals-gambling-problem-at-geelong Credits Neil Balme for a heart to heart and turning him around: “Balme said, we obviously need to help you...I’m forever grateful for that because that was a light bulb moment for me.” According to the article (March 2019) he hadn't placed a bet since 2014. So seems low risk. But played only 13 games for the Lions this year so not a regular 22. imv he is a poor man's Jamie Elliot. Prefer the latter. As an aside, Lions are getting Ah Chee from the Suns so it forces Christensen out. lions-offer-longterm-deal-to-wantaway-suns-highflyer Ah Chee is just 21 and has "...officially requested a move up the highway last week to fulfill Chris Fagan's plan to add more pace at the Gabba next season". With Ah Chee, Brisbane are adding the finishing touches to an already very, very good list. They will have a harder draw next year but don't see them going too far backwards.

UPDATE. UPDATE. UPDATE. Did a bit more checking on Maynard. It turns out my data was correct - he was promoted to the senior list but club website incorrectly shows him as a Rookie maynard-elevated-to-senior-list So we did have 39 Primary Listed Players for 2019. We had 6 'A' Rookies and 2 'B' Rookies This is the updated table showing the List and announced ins/outs so far Note: Corey Wagner was re-contracted as a Rookie. Many thanks @xman97for list rules. Very helpful and have incorporated them into the table.

Hawkins' appeal failed. Suspension stands. Will miss prelim. ? Scott must be ready to combust!! ?

I think you missed the subtlety of @Mazer Rackhampost. Have a look at Jaded's profile, then re read your first post...

Looking at the 2019 OOC players and what imv appears likely: Primary List: Baker: re-contract - needs injury free run to show what he can do. Frost: trade Kennedy-Harris: no rumours, probably delist Neal Bullen: rumoured to have been re-contracted for 2 years but no announcement J. Smith: rumoured to have been re-contracted but no announcement Stretch: no rumours, probably delist J.Wagner: no rumours, probably delist Rookie List: Chandler: re-contract Dunkley: re-contract Lockhart: re-contract Bradke: re-contract Walker: delist. Took a position in admin with the club mid 2019 so unlikely to don footy boots again. guy-walkers-new-offfield-role imv we have better talent and depth among our Rookies than the Primary List players, with the exception of Baker. This doesn't bode well for JKH, Stretch and Wagner.

Updated for Garlett, Lewis, Maynard, T. Smith, Keilty. Note: I previously had Maynard on the Primary List but in fact he was a Rookie. This means we had only 38 Primary Listed players in 2019. We are allowed 40. So the Summary table will always show two extra List spots to the number of players out. So right now that is 4 List spots but two players out: Garlett and Lewis.

I have updated this thread: There seem to be a few players re-contracted but not announced so had planned to wait till they were known.

Scotty Burns is now red hot favourite to replace Pyke. scott-burns-favourite-to-be-next-crows-coach Burns is another from the Clarkson coaching school. Having just lost Darren Glass (assistant coach) to WCE as List Manager, does Burns' departure mean there is less chance of prizing Yze from Hawks...

Lewis probably told him to stay away! Seriously, any idea why he was not interested?

Saints appear to have lost interest. "Melbourne appears to be leading the race to acquire Tomlinson, with St Kilda linked to him again, although the Saints have other things in play right now". trade-news-rumours-whispers Are we the only ones interested?

"... North Melbourne has inquired about his services..." trade-news-rumours-whispers No mention of Hawks so appear to no longer be interested? If so, we may not get as good a pick as we might have with some competition for him.

When was Hinkley sacked? #checkfacts For the record, Polec and Pittard have been very good recruits for North, especially for the relatively low cost: The Kangaroos have sent Pick 11 and a future fourth-round selection to the Power in exchange for Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard, along with Pick 48. It was shrewd play of their pick #11 as it enabled them to get their New Gen Academy player, Tarryn Thomas, for a handful of later picks. Thomas was called at pick #8 which North matched. So for pick #11 =/- later picks North got Thomas, Polec and Pittard. On balance that is a better 'package' than anything we have put together. Edit: Thanks to @Salems Lot for correction of the first two lines and apology to Wiseblood for the hashtag...just having first coffee for the day. Nonetheless, its not their fault Scott left and the rest of my post is valid which was to address negative comments about North's trading.

I have no view on him as have never seen him play. I noticed that the discussion here is that he rucked last night. AFL website doesn't credit Tomlinson with Hit Outs or Clearances. So wondering how people rated his rucking last night. Thanks.

It seems he didn't know the rules clearly and confused (panic or ignorance) ASADA and AFL testing and what they test for depending on when they take a sample. There were no PED's found in his subsequent and uncontaminated sample. So, even if he had an AFL 'strike' there was no need to mess with his sample as ASADA wouldn't act or maybe not even test for illicit drugs. Makes one wonder how clearly players understand the testing regimes of the two bodies. If it was one of our young stars panicked or confused at a drug test and similar happened, I would be mortified for him and us. Still, no excuse for being so dumb as to tamper with the sample.

LOL. We are eternal optimists at the Demons. Next year I will be in Africa for a month or two but timing it to be back for the finals. And will be renewing 2 Redlegs memberships. Maybe, I should say Demon Addicts rather than Demon Optimists!!

Sorry to be pedantic: he was traded in at end of 2017 so he did his 2018 preseason wtih us. He did his ACL half way thru the 2018 season.

He did the 2018 preseason with us. This is will be his 6th preseason as an AFL football so has reached the point of being a 'hardened' AFL player (usually 5 pre-seasons), altho he looks like he could do with some weight and muscle! His comment about there will be 'moments when he will roll his ankle or hurt his knee' (injuries that ruined his 2019 season, after recovering from his ACL) made me wonder if he expects them to recur. Time will tell. Hope he gets back to his best and gets a few good seasons happening.

The system advantages players that have played every game as the final count is the sum of votes from each game with no prorata for # of games played. For mine Frost is not top 5 and probably not top 10. Those ahead of him would be (in no particular order) Petracca, Harmes, Oliver, Gawn, Salem, Viney, Fritsch, even Hore perhaps... Many things go into the votes that we as fans can't see eg playing to the game plan, 'team first'/unselfish play, attitude, decision making under pressure, following team rules etc. I have no idea how Frost scores on any of these. But if he isn't in the top 10, I don't think it means there is 'a fix'. And I very much doubt BnF position influences trade decisions. After all, Hawks traded out Mitchell and Lewis the year they came 1st and 2nd in their BnF. Freo traded out their BnF winner last year...

My last word: I didn't say injury free; I said known, long-term injury vulnerabilities. 15 games in 2019 and several years without a game at all! Caveat emptor!