Lucifers Hero

True, 3rd and 4th will get a Home final. Can't see us getting a Home Final unless we make it to the GF. Wouldn't mind playing the Pies in Vic for an Elim final. They've had only a moderately difficult fixture with no interstate games so their position flatters them a little. And we can't play as badly against them as we did recently.

I wasn't going to look too closely at who the top 4 play in the last 2 rounds. But given they will be critical to who ends up 3rd and 4th for the two Elimination Finals this is their forthcoming fixture: Fremantle Mel NM Brisbane Lions NM Mel Collingwood StK Ade Adelaide WB Col Anybody's guess at the order after round 9. From now on it looks like 2 rounds of finals before finals, given that all current top 6 teams play at least one top 6 team.

The finals have an unusual structure: Points to note: 1st and 2nd get a rest in wk 1 of finals. 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th play off in two sudden death, Elimination finals Essentially there is no advantage in finishing 3rd or 4th. Great opportunity for us.

We are 6th on %. The top 4: Freo, Pies, Lions and Crows are a lock to stay there (in some order). 5th and 6th for finals will be from: (Likely wins in Green) 5th: North: 5/2, 162.9%. Will play: Brisbane @ Gabba, Freo @ Arden St. 6th: Demons: 5/2, 136.4%. Will play: Freo @ Freo, Brisbane @ Casey 7th: Bulldogs: 4/3, 101.3%. Will play: Crows @ Norwood, Richmond @ Whitten 8th: Blues: 3/4, 108.8%. GCS @ Metricon, Giants @ ?? My thoughts: Carlton will beat GCS and Giants and will end up 5 wins/4 losses but unlikely to make up the % to get to 6th. North and Dees both play Freo and Lions with North the much better % Bulldogs will beat Richmond but lose to Crows and end up 5/4 but unlikely to make up the % to get to 6th. Even if we lose our last 2 games and minimise the losses to protect our % we should end up 6th Defence will be the name of the game for the last two rounds.

Mighty game b/w Carlton and Freo. Freo 4 pts up with 3 min to go. Come on Freo!

That is a terrible trend. No wonder we can't win games. Those numbers are a real indictment on our game plan and structures at stoppages. All the talk of being a 'contested team', 'winning the contest' looks like bs. Great idea but not working in practice. Before anyone reminds me: yes I know that winning the contest also includes things like 'ground ball gets', 50/50 chances, marking etc but we can't win games if we can't win in the most important part of our 'contested' game, where we should have dominance: stoppages. If other clubs have 'worked out Max' we have had two years to develop counter measures. Lets hope our tactics, positioning and structures at stoppages improve markedly this year.

Hmm, we usually don't get much from the umps. It looks to me that Mithen gets crunched into the ground, sat on and roughed up quite, a lot in part because of her stature. And it often goes unnoticed by umps and teammates.

And hopefully when she hangs up the boots she gets a gig as an Assistant Coach for our men's team. She is very smart tactically, game plans and how to neutralise opp strengths. Not sure our current club leaders value her as much as the PJ regime did.

Does anyone else get the impression that Mithen is targeted by other clubs because of her size? She has been really hard hit these last few weeks. To her great credit she bounces back each time but she must be getting battle weary. We need to give her a bit more protection.

Great news, thanks. Very happy that seating in the Redlegs area is possible. Not fussed about the actual seat, more the location: good views and protected from the rain and wind.

Do you mean the booking company? Is it possible to choose your seats?

That's disappointing. You pay quite a premium for reserved seats and to lose that right is fairly ordinary. One would think the ticketing company could program it so that the reserved areas are kept for those members - not necessarily get your 'designated seat' for Home games but at least be in those area which are better located in many ways. Not sure I want to risk a seat in the rafters or exposed to the elements from a random computer allocation.

Does anyone know if we can or how do we get our Reserved Seat which is part of our membership when using this new on-line booking system?

We should get off to a good start and win the first 3: Freo, Saints and GWS injuries are just as bad if not worse than ours. I don't really care what commentators say. Its our story to write. I have little doubt we can make the 8 and win a final or two. Will we? Who knows.

Not everyone follows mfc twitter feed. I It would be simple to put something on mfc website, preferably the main page. Failing that on the Casey page which sadly is embedded in the 'Team' tab so not easy to find. BTW haven't heard much from Ben Gibson lately. Anyone know if Is he still around?

I thought Hibberd's 2020 was average. That aside, imv others offer more this year so we can cover him with the players I mentioned. My insight on J. Smith is he is listed as 'Test' in the table earlier in this thread. Round 1 is about 3 weeks after the injury so 'Test' looks about right for him. Bowey is one I suggested in my post.

No perspective. Really? Which part of my objective assessment do you disagree with?

Yes, certainly some very handy ins. My guess is most teams will be lacking match practice in the early games in part because of the shorter preseason and in part lack of practice games. So we shouldn't be too rusty in comparison to say Freo or the Saints who we play in the early rounds. Not sure Hibberd is in our starting 22 anymore so I don't mind if he isn't available for a while. We play Salem, Rivers and maybe Bowey/Jetta/J.Smith until he is fit enough to play regularly.

Just to clarify - on March 1, I paid the full Redleg membership for two. The $1 'deposit', I think was to get an emotional committment. I think the only reason for that offer was because I had cancelled my automatic renewal as I wasn't happy with 2020. I suspect other members who hadn't paid by end of Oct, were given the same offer.

Sorry, I don't know the mix. I guess all membership provide opportunities for sponsors and broadcasters and give clubs leverage with the AFL. We did something different this year. I was offered a renewal of two Redleg memberships in Nov for $1 and they would send the full membership pack before Christmas which they did. And if I didn't cancel it the full amount would be charged on March 1. Needless to say I didn't cancel it.

And, Carlton have 74,000+ members and they've had far less success than us. North not far behind us with 33,400 members even tho they have been a shambles for several years. We are not travelling well vs those less performing Vic clubs who were similarly affected by lack of live games in 2020 due to covid. These comparisons should be setting off alarm bells at the club..

Some people seem to be laying the ground work for a 'pre-season, injury based excuse' in case we don't do well in 2021. And at first glance the injury list doesn't look good. But on closer inspection: 7 of our best/better players are 'Test'. . 4 of those: J. Smith, Salem, Oliver and May have completed all the pre-season. The other 3: Brayshaw, Hibberd and Melksham have many pre-seasons under their belt so match practice may be an issue for just the first few games but not a reason to derail the season. Brayshaw last week played and is playing in the VFL this week. Those 7 players and Viney are highly experienced and have played together for years so if they don't know and practiced each others games or know the overall game plan by now we are in a world of hurt. Picket, Weidemen and B. Brown have missed the second half of the preseason. Picket will take some time to get into the season and we will miss Weidemen and Brown for quite a while. The others are depth players who probably wouldn't get a game unless there were multiple injuries in their role. So, imv the injury list size and some players not practicing together in this preason are not a reason to start thinking of excuses for the year. Some perspective is required.

Thanks. I can no longer edit the post so will fix it with the next update.

Latest update for Daw and Smyth We have a complete list: 36 senior players, 6 A- rookies and 1 B-rookie. My understanding of the mid-season draft is that if there is a LTI a player can be selected to replace them. So we can do that with Hore and Nietschke, if we choose, particularly if there is a player we like that missed out in the draft.

Yay! Really happy for him. Thrown in the deep end when he first joined us and I'm not sure it did him any favours. In a fresh environment where he isn't expected to be a 'save the defence' he can settle into becoming a very good, reliable footballer.