Lucifers Hero

Something that cost us was not having someone on the goal line. They got 3-4 scappy goal as a result - at least 2 from Cogniglio could have been stopped had we had someone behind the pack.

Yep, in the Grand Final... ... we will atone those losses.

The 'Kids/Debs': Goals: 1 – Windsor 1 – Roo 1 – Sharp 2 – Jeffo 1 – Henderson 1 – AJ Lindsay: D: 22, T: 6, Eff: 81.2% Langford: Not on field for long. I said earlier in the week if we lost it wouldn't be for the kids/debs. In fact they kept us int he game. They did their job superbly.

Proud!

The club could lobby the AFL. The AFL give a leg up to the big Vic clubs in so may ways. Wouldn't hurt to help the smaller ones. On balance the gate takings would be higher as adults bringing the kids would pay and it would be better viewing on tv with more people/noise. Can't see a downside.

Last year kids entered free for the WCE afternoon game. Great turnout on trains and atmosphere at the ground. I reckon kids should get in free for all MCG games vs i/state teams especially day games. Kids come with parents thereby increasing the adult numbers. And kids can make a lotta noise!

No need to take one line and nit pick it. Read it in context of the rest of the post...

Windsor maybe. JVR will be 22 in a few weeks. Remember that Pickett, Jackson, Bowey, Rivers, Petty, Sparrow, Spargo were all premiership players when between 18 and 21 years of age. I agree we have some youth tomorrow but I reckon that is a ok. If we lose it won't be because of the debs.

Only Langford and Lindsay are 18/19. Jefferson is 21. The rest of the team have been in the VFL/AFL system for at least several years. Long enough to physically develop and perform a role albeit not expected to star. Just do the role and that is enough while the 3 true debutants learn.

Yes, I'd rather give the newbies a go than play those not ready or tried before that you meniton. For mine the experience of Johnson, Henderson and Sharp to some extent balances out the inexperience of Langford, Linsay and Jefferson who will probably play limited minutes. I like that these guys a getting a go as we don't have a lot of depth in our injury list that can come in this year: McVee, Pickett, Tholstrop and maybe Melksham. So getting games into the debs is a good thing. We will need them to play during the year.

I loath Ess soooooooooo much I don't care who beats them!

Wizard, are you DD's Mum ... 😊

You could give her a hug and tell her.😉 Failing that, Mother's Day will be here soon 😊

Goodwin said three or four to debut. I'm guessing it will be three: Langford, Lindsay, Jefferson or Johnson. As Johnson played in Freo game he is the more likely and perhaps Jefferson as an emergency.

None of the articles say the time Maynard's 'accident' happened. Last time he crashed his car it was 6.00am. Is the media protecting that scum species again!

Some new faces this week. Goodwin: “I think we’ve probably got four or five guys that are new to our footy club that are pressing for selection. But I think we’ll end up having three or four guys come Friday, that’ll find their way into the team for the first time, which I think is exciting for the Melbourne supporters,” Goodwin said on Thursday. “We’ve got Aidan Johnson, [Matt] Jefferson, you know, then [Harvey] Langford and [Xavier] Lindsay are all in the mix for selection. That should give Kingsley something to think about! If nothing else we won't be predictable new-look-demons-to-play-three-or-four-debutants-in-round-one Despite the weather hope everyone gets to the G to give those guys a roaring welcome to our club. And to the debutantes: Have fun guys, do us proud!

I'm still very optimistic about this game. They beat us by 2 points in rain soaked Alice in 2023 when the score line was 7.5 to our 5.15. They were lucky Lever had a brain fade in the last minutes, didn't man the mark and let Kelly kick a 60m goal. So I wouldn't think they are much better than us playing when wet. Last year they beat us by 2 points again in 2024 with a score line of 13.7 to our 12.11 at the G. Their midfield were very good but we had no Petracca, an underdone Oliver and Viney was having a poor patch of form. Of their 2024 team Hogan, Perryman, Peating, Briggs and maybe Green won't be there. We will be missing a few, namely Pickett and to a lesser extent McVee and ANB but have Oliver and Petracca back. It is a shame Melksham isn't playing as he is very good as a 'defensive forward/decoy' to take Taylor away from the play. Not sure we have anyone else that is respected enough that Taylor has to follow. It will be close but don't fear them at all.

Yes, that is my reservation; just not sure he is a 'team' first player. And we now have Langford; not quite in the same class as Harley but potentially just as valuable. This year will tell us a lot about his character.

I think that is 80,000 for the game vs Richmond. Probably much lower than prior years Round 1.

I posted after the Freo game that our chipping around and changing angles in our d50 appeared to avoid the 'kick it to Max' tactic. But we were slow and tentative with it. Part of the tentativeness is up field players not positioned to accept the ball then run and carry it. I think that is why Windsor is down back. I think we will get better at it and hopefully it will happen this week. Otherwise we will be relying on our around the ground defence and pressure to stop the speedy GWS, something the Pies didn't do. As an aside reckon Sparrow could go wtih Finn Callaghan. Even if Sparrow doesn't get a kick stopping him will go a way to stopping GWS or at least slowing them down.

Yes, GWS were fast in part because the Pies' laziness let them. The Pies didn't chase with intent nor apply much pressure. These stats tell the story: Tackles: GWS 59. Pies 39 1%: GWS 43. Pies 34 39 tackles is disgraceful! 59 tackles is about average but then GWS didn't need to tackle. The lack of pressure from Coll made for GWS quick transition and open f50. Lets not forget Carlton thrashed GWS the week before. Yes a practice game but ... No doubt we will have our work cut out for us this week but our around the ground defence/pressure will bring GWS back down to earth. Stop them in their tracks is the way to go and I reckon we have the players to do just that. They ran the game out well but our fresh legs should help us slow them down.

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ... I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

@WheeloRatings The ABC have rightly given you credit in this article: unpredictable-afl-season-2025-set-to-be-most-open-in-years It was remarkably accurate in 2024 wins eg Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees rises and falls. Their respective 2023 wins were 7, 12, 18 and 16. The actual for 2024 is in the table below. The 'draw strength' must have been statistically very significant. Does the 'Pythagorean' thing have much statistical credibility? Accounting for underlying team strength (Pythagorean expectation) and draw strength The 11 predicted wins for us surprises me given we have a statistically easy draw. If 'Pythagorean' does have cred then 2025 doesn't look too good for us. Think I'll ignore their 'logic' and continue to dream ... ... still confident that 2025 will atone 2023 ...

Methinks we are saying the same thing: I call it a 'playoff' you call it a 'wild card'. It was very obvious as soon as talk of a reschedule started what the AFL for was angling for. They would be rubbing their hands with glee! That final game is likely to be a 'playoff' for a finals spot as one or both GCS and Ess will be around the top 8 this year. Even if only one is around the top 8, it could still shape the 8 if that team wins or looses the 'playoff' game. Especially, if it is % that decides those spots. For example if GCS is 7th, 8th or even 6th, with only one win or % keeping them in the 8, if they lose the game or lose % they could drop out of the 8 and 9th come in. Or if Ess/GCS are 9th and a game or % keeping them out of the 8 they could get in at the expense of the 8th team. The AFL would be beside themselves with the prospect of such or similar scenarios

AFL would be very happy and would be hoping the Ess vs GCS will be a playoff for a finals spot. It is a defacto test of their much vaunted idea of having pre finals playoffs between teams 6th to 10th.