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I'll have to disagree slightly on dazz re Armstrong. He's far more athletic and agile than Weideman and better when the ball hits the deck. Would say his leading patterns are much better as well. His one wood is marking on the lead which he gets from good acceleration allowing him to get separation from his opponent. Agree contested marking isn't the strongest part of his game but he's capable and took some good ones in the game vs country. Riak Andrew also smashed Shanahan late in the year, has claimed a number of scalps this season. Not using this for an argument for selecting him, though I do see some merit in acquiring a key positon player this draft.

Noticed that too, could be just him forgetting to list him as he previously mentioned clubs are considering him inside 10.

"There’s an outside chance Melbourne (Pick 5) takes him with its first selection, although the sense is the Dees will more likely target a midfielder at that pick. It’s most likely Armstrong, at this stage, goes to Richmond (Pick 6), St Kilda (Picks 7 and 8) or Melbourne (Pick 9)." From today's foxsports power ranking article https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/draft/fox-footy-afl-draft-power-rankings-2024-top-50-afl-draft-news-2024-prospects-predictions-final-power-rankings/news-story/3e3909b5ec637e92aeeae8ce440315a6

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/draft/fox-footy-afl-draft-power-rankings-2024-top-50-afl-draft-news-2024-prospects-predictions-final-power-rankings/news-story/3e3909b5ec637e92aeeae8ce440315a6 Jagga Smith He’s right in Richmond’s Pick 1 frame — and could still be on the board by the time the Tigers have their second pick — but all of North Melbourne, Carlton, Adelaide and Melbourne will strongly consider him too. Sam Lalor Should the Tigers overlook him, Carlton, Adelaide and Melbourne, surely at the latest, would all consider him strongly. Harvey Langford Langford looms as a top-10 pick on draft night. There’s a slight chance the Tigers take him at Pick 1, but if he’s still there at Pick 6 they would strongly consider him. Rival clubs recently strongly linked him to Melbourne (Picks 5 and 9), too. Murphy Reid Reid is likely to come into the draft mix from Richmond’s Pick 6 onwards, with St Kilda and Melbourne to consider him too. Some rival clubs, though, wouldn’t be surprised if he slipped into the teens. Josh Smillie Smillie still seems well placed to be taken at the top-end of this year’s draft, with Melbourne (Pick 5) the earliest link at this stage. It’s hard to see him sliding past St Kilda and Richmond’s top-10 picks. Harry Armstrong There’s an outside chance Melbourne (Pick 5) takes him with its first selection, although the sense is the Dees will more likely target a midfielder at that pick. It’s most likely Armstrong, at this stage, goes to Richmond (Pick 6), St Kilda (Picks 7 and 8) or Melbourne (Pick 9). Xavier Lindsay Lindsay is in the top-10 mix, with Melbourne (Pick 5) perhaps the club with the earliest pick that could take him. Yet there’s a world in which Lindsay slips to teams like the Dockers and Power in the teens, such is the nature of this year’s even draft class. Jobe Shanahan There’s a slight chance he sneaks in to the top 10 — should one of the Saints, Demons or Tigers want a key forward at that stage of the draft — otherwise he should be in that mid first-round mix featuring the Power, Dockers and Giants. Jack Whitlock Could be an outside chance to be taken by one of the Saints, Demons or Tigers in the top 10, but looms more likely as a later selection on night one. Could Sydney pounce?

Nothing too concrete to come out of that but few little tid-bits. - Dees have a level of interest in Tauru (as do most in the top 10) and also Armstrong - Cal believes our pick 5 will most likely come from the midfield group of Lalor, O'Sullivan, Draper, Langford and Smith. - Adelaide pick 4 likely to be chosen from Draper and Langford with both also in the mix for Carltons pick - Pick 9 Cal named Travaglia and Allan "among others" in that range for our pick. - Armstrong may get some interest from tigers at pick 6 but also Saints at 7 & 8. - Travaglia is a wanted commodity among clubs in the 8 - 14 range. - North still looking for trading partners for pick 2 but seems unlikely at this stage. Cal says North continues to be linked to Tauru but questioned whether it's too early for him at this point and they may go a mid. Sounded more opinion than mail there. - 6 certainties for the top 10: Lalor, Aschroft, O'Sullivan, Langford, Draper, Smith - likely for top 10: Smillie and Tauru - possibles for top 10: Lombard, Kako, Reid, Allan, Travaglia

I'm warming to the idea of Armstrong.

I suspect you're most likely correct but there's another reason that Richmond and us would agree to a trade like this, or something similar. That is to deny other teams the opportunity to deal with us and beat them to that player. Most clubs would probably have a good understanding of which teams are targeting which players. This could lead to a discussion with Richmond to highlight the mutual benefits of a trade. Richmond might like a player at 10, for examples sake lets say its Travaglia and we also have no interest in taking him. We could be in discussions with GWS for 15, 16 with GWS targeting Travaglia as their man. Richmond may look to package up pick 11 with 23 (or whatever extra pick would sate us) for pick 9 to prevent this from happening. We saw this last year when Essendon traded with Geelong to get Caddy. Essendon were one spot behind Geelong and gave them a 2nd round pick to move up that one pick. Geelong were clearly not going to take Caddy, took the extra currency and selected O'Sullivan. It was later stated that Essendon made that move to prevent rivals from getting access to Caddy by attempting to trade with Geelong.

Funnily enough, I'd think they would prefer to give us pick 23 than 24. Like you said, 24 is valuable and they can probably flip it for a future 1st with another team.

I more or less agree with your sentiment but just had to pull you up on your opening line. Laurie only played 6 games this year with 4 of them being sub or subbed off. Woewy played 16. He's also contracted until end of 2026. I defended him throughout the year and thought he was given a rough run by the match committee. Only played one consecutive set of matches, showed a bit of improvement in his last few games yet was straitht out and never given a run to build his confidence. I'm less bullish on his prospects now. Despite getting a deal until 2026, he's going to need to really demand a spot and play a good chunk of games otherwise he'll probably be told to look at his options elsewhere. Best of luck to him, hope he makes a good fist of it.

*Improved not approved, geez I put in some howler autocorrect spelling mistakes while typing on my phone.

Warburtons got some nice traits, but I'm not a wrap for his decision making and disposal under pressure. Lacks some composure and runs himself into trouble often. If that aspect of his game can be approved then could prove go be a decent rebound defender.

It's going to be hard to recruit anyone if they both leave and the media push the basket case narrative. Would be nice to have a ready made player for '25, and we may get one with one of our top 10 picks. But we shouldn't be having a narrow short term focus on recruits and we shouldn't be expecting one or two 18yr olds to be the difference between making finals or not. All I know is if one or both of Oliver or Petracca leave, we are going to be swimming in salary cap space. Think we will have an easier time trying to recruit a young quality mid over the next few years than a ready to go 25yr+ KPP that wants to sign a 5-7yr contract in a premiership contending team. We're going to be very short on key position players at the end of next year when McDonald most likely retires and May on his last legs at 34 in 2026. With Tomlinson and Schache gone, Fullarton not looking likely and both Jefferson and Adams no guarantees, I see a good argument to adding quality KPP players to the list. Our list has a lot of needs. Whether that's at 5, 9 or 83 will depend on how the JT sees this crop.

Assuming we don't split pick 5 or 9, I see this pick being somewhat needs based. We go two mids early we'll probably go tall. Go tall and mid we probably go another mid-sized player. With Rivers potentially shifting to the midfield full-time and Salem getting on, I think we could use some depth in our medium defenders department. Bowey and McVee make up the other medium defenders with the later potentially earmarked for a future midfield role as well given his trial runs there late in the season. AMW shows promise but not sold he makes it long term with defensive IQ and decision making needing work. Given that, I'd like to suggests two players that could potentially fit the mold. 1. Lachie Jacques 184cm defender from Geekong Falcons. May be off the board at this point, but Lachie provides excellent reading of the ball and is a strong mark, intercepts and spoils well and also neat by foot and was often the designated kicker out of defence for Geelong. Provides a lot of run from the backline and works hard to be involved in the next chain. 2. Lucca Grego 184cm mid/defended from Western Jets. Played mainly in the midfield for the Jets where he shows toughness over the ball and has a burst of speed. Caught my eye playing as a defender from Vic Metro where I thought he took to the role well and impressed me with use ball use and his competitiveness. Keep in mind in the video above is played at Williamstown oval which always has shocking wind conditions and makes his ball use look poor. Unfortunately can't find any other videos thus far.

The ‘ruthless’ top-10 prospect with goalkicking great in his corner - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1248642 Looks similar to the above article but has some different details in there. Pump up article so take from it what you will. Indeed, ruthlessness is among Armstrong's biggest strengths. As well as being a straightshooter and athletic – he finished seventh in the agility test at the national Draft Combine – the Dragons prospect is also a fierce competitor. "I believe that he has … nastiness is the wrong word – that's what Kevin Sheedy instilled into me – but he has the ability to be what I call a tenpin bowler. He takes down everyone with him and flies for his marks," Lloyd said.

Too early to say, just putting out hypotheticals based on recent speculation but not placing too much stock in it at this stage.

If we are going for Armstrong at 5 I don't think we take the risk here. Very exciting player though.

I don't see much of the WA boys but saw Luke Urquhart tested well at the Combine. Likely to go in the main draft @Pennant St Dee?

I wouldn't worry about track record or the last time we landed a fre agent. We should just target players we need regardless of history. My main point is that quality key position players are difficult to obtain and cost a fortune to bring across given the demand and scarcity. Most clubs are locking in their key talls to lengthy deals, as evidenced by Mac Andrew and Darcy Fogarty. Battle isn't even in the top echelon of key talls and he scored himself such a huge pay day and lengthy contract to move clubs that St kilda got a 1st round pick as compensation. Just by weight of numbers there are more mids/mid-sized players likely to be available come trade time. If Oliver or Petracca leave next year, given we'll have plenty of cap space to play with, I'll be disappointed if we didn't land a good midfielder in the next year or two.

I phrased this poorly, I meant that Adams and Jefferson are still question marks at AFL level. Both may make it, both may not. I actually like the skills and qualities both players bring and look forward to their development. Adams in particular has a way to go but bother signed through to 26 so club obviously sees the potential worth developing. I'm in agreement with you that a mix of tall and mid would be ideal and given we have three picks, I see us taking two mids and one kpp.

I like this if Lalor is available

That's fair enough, I guess the real question for mine is can we get the same player we want at 9 a few spots back and improve our 3rd pick by 40 odd spots.

Rivers is a genuine mid now and should be considered part of the rotation. I do wonder that maybe with his progress to the midfield and adding two mids in last year's draft (albiet a winger and half-forward/mid hybrid) that it may lean us towards a mid and tall combo for our two early picks. With Tomlinson out, McDonald and May near the end and so far lack of AFL development from Adams and Jefferson, we are in need of more talented KPP. They are much harder to trade in as well. I suspect we will go hard at a free agent or out of contract mid at the end of next year, particularly if one or both of Oliver and Petracca move on.

Guess it comes down to A) 2x Excellent players and a stab in the dark in the 60s 5, 9, 60 or B) 3x excellent players inside the top 20 5, 11, 20 Now that maybe fantasy land to get scenario B to happen but we could get something close to that. This draft is deep and even in the first two rounds. With some intel on other clubs plans, we could potentially target players by safely trading down like we did in the Pickett/Rivers draft. If not possible, we hold 5 and 9.

Basically, the clubs I've mentioned have priority access to players due to either the father/son rule or academy zones. Other clubs can bid on these players but they won't get access to them if the original club the player "belongs" to matches the bid. They do this with their draft picks which have assigned value based on its number. Max value is pick 1 @3000 points with each subsequent pick decreasing in value from there. Clubs have worked around this by stockpiling later selections to match their highly rated kids. It's why we have obtained essendons pick 9 by giving them 28, 40, 46, 54, 65 as well as a future 1st pick. When a bid comes in for kako, at say pick 6 for an example - essendon will then have to burn through 28, 40 and 46 to match that bid. There's others nuances like point discounts for these players. Gold coast and Brisbane have similarly traded out/down for the same reason and will similarly burn through picks, thus bringing 83 down to a rough range I've estimated to be 55 - 65. List sizes will also come into play and some teams may only take 2 players and pass on their later selections.