Demon Dynasty

I would think not knowing till a short time before is possibly more psychological than just a black & white meh...he is / he isn't EO. Each player has their strengths / weaknesses as we know and opp players / teams try to set their game / set ups to try and counter or in some cases take advantage of them (Gawny's preferred tap out zones vs say Pruess) Adding another ruckman to the mix isn't going to set them back in a big way as you say, but, it does throw another layer of detail into the mix and i would guess many footy players probably prefer to know and set themselves on a particular player / strat to counter/combat etc a fair way ahead of the actual game. As is often the case at this level, the game is about small incremental wins/advantages/percentages over your opponent, rather than a big home run or two. Will the late notice have any effect, nil effect? Who knows. Is it worth trying to ring every possible bit of incremental advantage you can over your opponent, even a minor psychological one? You bet.

Agreed and i would add Gazza, Johno Brown and Lewis in that mix as well. Some good info and links from all contributors. Thanks to Bin...Interesting to have a team focussed thread rather than usual player analysis focus much of the time?

We have too often been slow out of the blocks in so many seasons HW. Would love to see this improved substantially. Also the 3rd quarter is a bit of a worry being almost bottom of the rung. Not sure what relevance if any it has in today's game but back in the day and still now (occasionally) some ex-players often referred to the 3rd as the premiership quarter.

Found this table courtesy of a Dee Man link on Bin's "Game plan, Tactics" thread. Howe played up to and including Rnd 3. While not necessarily causal there might (or might not) be some degree of correlation here between his departure and points conceded of late with the points conceded certainly trending up post the All Australian's departure...

Hopefully he'll get a decent run / crack at it at some point. 2020's Dunn (2016) & Pruess (2019)?

Will no doubt need managing at some point Cards. Let's hope you're correct and he's in for the next few at least. His mobility and ability to find space plus his leap/height up forward is a huge asset.

Very good insight Bob thanks

Possible after a forward/ruck stint but then there's the 6 day break Dazzle. As an old warhorse i would get the managed bit on 6 days or less but surely a young colt can fully recover in 4 to 5? Hoping the 6 days will suffice. Sometimes wonder if we let science get in the way of common sense at times now.

I forgot to add... Harmes could and probably should be part of the mid/forward rotation combo of ....Viney / Tracc, Harmes & Melk. Imagine the opp trying to counter those 4 very different style of player both through the middle, out of congestion and time spent forward. This is the sort of headache you don't want as an opposing coach.

All good points 58. As i said Rivers looks the goods but i haven't given up on Marty just yet. Regardless, very nice to be building some depth (once Marty recovers that is).

I'm all in on this. About 70/30 feels right. Would provide a hard edge needed up forward and might help pressure/lock the ball in a little more. The odd goal or two wouldn't hurt either. About 30% burst time in the middle to relieve Clarry/Tracc. Sparrow to add a rotation assist to those two as well. Melk plays the Gus role when he's resting. Tracc can replace Viney's role when he comes in to the middle sometimes. Keeps the opp guessing and we are giving them plenty of different looks and headaches.

Good pick up Chazz. Maybe confirmation we are starting to really bed down our back 6. Going alright this year and have held up well under serious fire at times. Wondering how much of Howe is in that Pies ranking and what effect, if any, having him out is going to effect their defensive game as the remainder of the season plays out?

Some very good questions and assumptions in your initial post thanks Nascent. Too many hours i think but i do enjoy seeing who's heading in what direction vs previous years or in comparison to watching a game live to see if i'm missing something or someone. It's also helped remind me at times that i have many 'viewer' flaws and predetermined biases towards certain players that are either way off the mark or a little off what a player is actually delivering on the park, both in a role sense and their actual output on the day. Sometimes i carry over a bad performance and because it's imprinted on the memory i can label that player as ordinary, and on the day or even a few matches they may have been, but they can also bounce back, find form again a prove you very wrong. Weid a good example of that this year. Not that i needed stats or these tables as confirmation for him in particular. His improved performance is out there for all to see given his KP role. But more so in the less prominent positions / roles at times.

that is correct daisy ... all scores should be multiplied by that if doing a direct comparison and many of the comparisons that are in the red vs 2019, Rnd 11 in particular, are actually in the positive. I've tried to highlight this a bit when i remember in the pre chart summaries.

SEN interview coming up in next half hour or so fellow minions

I'm happy with that OD. The less i hear Bruce swooning over things like " it's going really close to THE BOUNNNNDARY LINNNNE!!" et al the better.

A dour player that stuck fat through some horrid years at the Demons. While he never shot any lights out he was at least semi reliable and rarely got pantsed either from memory. To think how much we all love a torp but kicking one out of the square probably sealed his fate under Roos et al. Hope he does well and that's saying something given my adoration of all things black & white.

Uh not quite imo 58 but he's had a very nice debut that's for sure. Very early days for both of these rookies with only 4 and 14 matches respectively. There's always hope! Don't discount Marty just yet. He's elite in the areas that count for a defender including rebound 50s, intercepts and 1%ers. That's not to say Rivers won't get there and surpass either but i think a little more time is needed at this very early stage (for both) before jumping to the "he's gone past him" conclusion. They may well end up both being fab players who end up surpassing and taking both flanks at some point. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Compare?playerIds=CD_I1009378,CD_I996692&comparisonTab=h2h

I'm not sure where this impression is coming from. Possibly because he is getting quite a bit of the pill. He does turn the ball over a little but not in our top 5 here (7th) but countering this he is rated our 7th best disposer of the ball. AFL pro stats has him as elite by foot this season running at 70% (approx 2% above average) and elite by disposal overall at 78% (AFL average approx 73%). We (he) must be doing something right this season as that elite 78% DE efficiency is up nearly 6% on his career average of 72%!! I have noticed he occasionally goes to gather and sometimes take his eyes of the ball at the last second and fumbles, probably trying to pre-empt who/where he is going to run or give off to but haven't seen too many other major faults. Possibly a few misses coming inside 50 on occasions. Wouldn't be alone here. I reckon he's an absolute gem and yes, he is up there with Butler as a very handy recruit this season, possibly even ahead given the work rate required in his position/role. P.S. apologies to DJ who i just noticed covered some of this on previous page ✌

You are one the money here W. This season he is currently kicking at roughly 6%* better than than AFL average kicking efficiency. His career kicking is a little less running roughly 3% over the AFL average*. Generally considered an above average kick*. Unfortunately in the area he is ultimately there for, goal kicking, he is presently rated as below average, only averaging 0.6 goals per game*. *data / views courtesy of afl.com.au

No as in 2nd in both stats respectively behind each of those two players who lead those stats in 2019 LDC. For a rookie he showed elite defensive results in some areas last season, these areas being two of them.

Not as the 3rd tall W. He's only 4cm shorter than Tomlinson (as per the original posters' discussions) and 3cm vs May but has a VG leap. He plays tall and creates run off his opponent as well. Damaging player when he's on and a difficult match up for the opp. He was our 2nd best intercept and rebound player in 2019 (on averages) just behind Lever and Salem respectively and well ahead of May, Hibb, Nev, Fritta, Frosty and Oscar. He did have some ordinary games on occasions but nothing unusual for a rookie.

Some may have forgotten but... IMHO Marty tops all three in defence when he is fit and on (2021 all going well).

Weighted Averages up to and including Rnd 11, 2020 Only three matches to work with but Sparrow moves into the top 10! Ed & Salem leap frog May into 5th and 6th respectively. And our Mr Clarry takes over the No.1 mantle from Tracc....just. He has now also overtaken his No.1 2019 season score once the adjustment is made for the 20% loss in game time. Is this the year of take off for our young gun!?? Champion / match winning form three out of the last four weeks. Player 2020 Weighted Score 2020 Rank 2019 Weighted Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019 Clayton Oliver 3.973 1 4.643 -14.43 1 0 Christian Petracca 3.770 2 2.616 44.11 10 8 Max Gawn # 3.039 3 3.256 -6.66 4 1 Jack Viney 2.953 4 3.068 -3.75 5 1 Christian Salem 2.483 5 3.448 -27.99 3 -2 Ed Langdon 2.480 6 - - - - Steven May 2.405 7 2.446 -1.68 14 7 Tom Sparrow 2.275 8 1.075 111.63 37 29 Angus Brayshaw 2.208 9 2.894 -23.70 6 -3 Michael Hibberd 2.206 10 2.124 3.86 20 10 Jake Lever 2.093 11 2.313 -9.51 17 6 James Harmes 1.963 12 3.850 -49.01 2 -10 Oscar McDonald 1.825 13 1.877 -2.77 26 13 Harley Bennell 1.790 14 - - - - Nathan Jones 1.780 15 2.711 -34.34 8 -7 Alex N-Bullen 1.683 16 1.984 -15.17 21 5 Jay Lockhart 1.656 17 1.660 -0.24 31 14 Sam Weideman 1.654 18 1.818 -9.02 23 5 Bayley Fritsch 1.650 19 2.641 -37.52 9 -10 Tom McDonald # 1.638 20 2.150 -23.81 19 -1 Mitchell Hannan 1.625 21 1.325 22.64 36 15 Adam Tomlinson # 1.604 22 - - - - Aaron Vandenburg 1.492 23 - - - - Trent Rivers 1.388 24 - - - - Luke Jackson # 1.354 25 - - - - Neville Jetta 1.305 26 2.264 -42.36 18 -8 Kysaiah Pickett 1.184 27 - - - - Joel Smith 1.158 28 - - - - Toby Bedford * 1.150 29 - - - - Jake Melksham 1.130 30 1.931 -41.48 23 -7 Charlie Spargo 0.913 31 1.375 -33.60 23 -8 Jayden Hunt 0.858 32 1.958 -56.18 22 -10 Mitchell Brown * 0.625 33 - - - - Average Team Score -Top 22 48.753 59.623 -18.23 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com