Demon Dynasty

Agreed re Sam having a somewhat better match vs the other two when watching the game. The weighted score does capture this (just) with Kozzie but not with Spargo (just). As pointed out by BN, statistically things can come out slightly differently vs what actually occurs on match day in terms of the importance of a player's disposal / involvement / output and effect on the result. Often it can be little things that don't even get picked up ie., some stats are either dubious or the publicly available ones don't / can't capture all of the nuances that we see take place. Nonetheless, i have to agree with these two assessments and it could (probably was) the weakness of the model itself. Taking a look at the penalty imposed for turnovers that goes in to the final weighted scores. I've backed it off, marginally, and this may be the tonic needed without changing the core basis of the model nor the rest of the pecking order in a significant way. Hey nobody's perfect and there's always room for improvement so thanks for the constructive scrutiny fellas. The new weighted ratings table, including the above minor tweak, below. Player Score Rank Clayton Oliver 3.800 1 Steven May 3.525 2 Angus Brayshaw 3.400 3 Jake Lever 3.250 4 Christian Salem 3.200 5 Adam Tomlinson 3.125 6 Ed Langdon 2.875 7 Christian Petracca 2.600 8 Jack Viney 2.575 9 James Harmes 2.325 10 Michael Hibberd 2.025 11 Jake Melksham 1.650 12 Braydon Preuss # 1.550 13 Sam Weideman 1.500 14 Charlie Spargo 1.375 15 Kysaiah Pickett 1.300 16 Tom McDonald # 1.175 17 Tom Sparrow 1.150 18 Mitchell Hannan 1.100 19 Jay Lockhart 1.075 20 Aaron Vandenberg 0.850 21 Bayley Fritsch 0.775 22 Team Score 46.200 Top 6 20.300 Bottom 6 6.125 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com

I reckon both!

Reading this at work. My brain doesn't handle such sensibility this early in the morning. Stop it AF...just stop it. Why would you want to play a player in his strongest position on the ground where he's performed admirably on many occasions over his career so far? And have him kick the odd goal while he's at it! Beggars belief. Pfft i dunno....some of you D'landers! I mean seriously, you want to actually start winning matches on a regular basis huh? Don't know what's up with everyone here lately. Bloody Covid chaos. That's the only feasible explanation.

You know we don't do minor injuries Pates....it's 4-6 (ie., of unknown length / term) or nadda!

I hear you AF but to me Tom just doesn't have the legs / run any more to play that role. And he can't play ruck rover all day nor should he be going anywhere near the opp's goals. So where do you play him for the remainder of the year? I just don't see him being able to cover the two way running required in that area of the ground. Could be wrong though.

Dazzle that's a big no for mine....for reasons such as that mentioned by AF. One of the most awkward ugly bits of play i've seen from a backman for a while. Possibly since this one. Ok not quite but you get my drift. I just wouldn't put him anywhere near the opp's goals from here. Could we see a miracle turnaround? Who knows.... it wasn't that long ago he was scoring on a regular basis in some matches. Personally i agree with AF. Isolate him in the square and get the Weid to play the CHF role as he's younger and more mobile than Tommy obviously. See the year out. Go all out on Cameron with a lucrative trade deal if we can?

No Worries BN. Just can't seem to take that step up to the next level above the shoulders eh. They have some talent and decent players but far too often just fail to show up on match day once the opposition up the ante a little. Some of those kicks yesterday, into the man on the mark multiple occasions and kicking scrubbers to the opp on others. Fritta's inexplicable non-tackle on English costing us a goal. Fritta playing on and kicking it to "someone" who just wasn't even an option or may have even been running away from him towards goal with back turned (i think), ball turned over and ends up in their forward line (can't recall if they scored or not). Gus did something similar at one point. No poise when needed, too many brain farts. Amature hour stuff. Smacks of a team that just isn't hungry enough right across the board and/or just can't handle AFL level pressure (with a few notable exceptions in general and on the day). Too little left to too few far too often to take the next step also. We are capable against the sub par clubs / teams but don't cut it so well against anyone from about 10th place upwards. Really feel for blokes like Maxy, Clarry and Tracc. Even May and Hibb this season, who give it their all most weeks but are continually let down by blokes who just can't seem to go (or maybe couldn't be bothered going) to the next level. Then there's the coach & FD. I'm sure they're getting alot right but i'm just not sure they're capable of getting the best out of this group. After 3.5 seasons we keep getting beaten by teams who are fairly fast in general (but that's what AFL brings now and has for decades!) using a game style that sees them spread with skills / leg speed away from congestion and just hungrier for longer far too easily far too often. And when are we going to learn that when we're on a good thing you stick with it!?? ie., Viney plays less time in the middle, more time forward bringing Gus into more mid field time? Worked beautifully the week before. But no, let's go back to Viney this week and stuff the whole balance / system up...and this is not the first time! How many times have we thought we are on to a good set up / balance since SG started only to see it thrown out again a few weeks later....back to our awful type once again. Then there's AVB & Sparrow on a wing. Now i love ANB and certainly not expecting much from Sparrow given he's a rookie but come on. We have to be better than this in a place on the park where you need mobile marking options with run and carry ability. Not throwing the baby out just yet but it's very very close and i reckon this week is this group's final chance (under SG) to turn a corner and make a fist of it coming into finals in a strong way. Lose this one and the spotlight's really gonna be on the Coach and FD as well as a bunch of players that just aren't able to cut the mustard.

There's an old saying Dockett which i'm sure you've heard plenty of times.... "When the going gets tough.....

Rnd 13, 2020 Metricon - Dogs vs Demons Team score, allowing for this season's 20% less game time, was 8% off the 2019 season average and 18% lower than 2018's. Clarry tops the statistical tables again with May not far behind. Fritta down the other end for the first time this season punished somewhat by his turnovers exceeding effective possessions. AVB not far behind and has been sitting at or near the bottom since his return against the Crows. His best result 19th against the Roos in Rnd 11. Turnover kings today were Viney with a whopping 9 followed by Tracc with 7. On the up side Viney lead the score involvements with 6, closely followed by Melk, Clarry, Pruess and the Weid with 5 a piece. As a side note Tomlinson had 14 effectives today at 100% efficiency with zero turnovers. Not too shabby. Lever topped the intercepts with 12, Harmes the next best with 7. Player Score Rank Clayton Oliver 3.750 1 Steven May 3.425 2 Angus Brayshaw 3.200 3 Jake Lever 3.150 4 Adam Tomlinson 3.125 5 Christian Salem 3.050 6 Ed Langdon 2.725 7 Christian Petracca 2.250 8 James Harmes 2.225 9 Jack Viney 2.125 10 Michael Hibberd 1.725 11 Jake Melksham 1.600 12 Braydon Preuss # 1.450 13 Charlie Spargo 1.375 14 Sam Weideman 1.300 15 Kysaiah Pickett 1.250 16 Tom Sparrow 1.150 17 Mitchell Hannan 1.000 18 Tom McDonald # 0.975 19 Jay Lockhart 0.925 20 Aaron Vandenberg 0.600 21 Bayley Fritsch 0.525 22 Team Score 42.900 Top 6 19.700 Bottom 6 5.175 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com

If Harmes has had a great season then i'm Uncle's monkey.

He potentially brings class and finish though something that Baker probably doesn't have at this early stage. I'd roll the dice and give him a 3 match minimum run and see what he can bring (if he's fit enough to run out a full game that is).

Bennell, if fit, should be in this week and if he is fit i would leave him in for the remainder of the season and see what he can bring. There's nothing to lose and everything to gain here. Vanders could do with a rest. He's played his part for now. Time to see what Harley can bring.

My best guess is Goody is a "set and forget" coach who appears to believe that if you overwhelm your opponent with heavy contested ball winners and win the ball with numbers at the contest then everything else will look after itself. The trouble is when you don't win this area (say the opp evens up the contested / clearances or gets close, or even worse wins it) then that template has failed at the first hurdle. Add to that some terrible execution when you do win it and zero pressure on their HBs in transition, and you have yourself the continual recipe for failure against anyone capable of bringing those two factors (for long enough). St Kilda will do exactly the same and unless Goody brings a different look, we'll get exactly the same outcome.

Yet another bizzaro Goody experiment that shows no signs of ending Dazzle. What a complete and utter fail. Rivers in for Harmes. Harmes takes over from Sparrow in the middle, pushing forward at times. Simples.

Which is why he should be played (mostly) as a forward. At least the scoreboard will be turning over. That he still tries to ram his way through so many contests is a habit that won't be broken at this late stage. Use him where he's better suited. The coach can't work this one out (and Harmes) 12 rounds in and 3.5 seasons later?

You can still play man on man for stints when the opp gets a run on and/or when you want to make every contest a contest at stoppages and the drop. I'm watching the Hawks do it right now and they have just drawn level with top of the table Power in this match by doing just that at 3/4 time! No one gave them a chance yet it's this game style that's got them into a winning position against all odds. This club is poorly coached, managed and allows decent opp to take the game away from it far too easily and far too often without a yelp.

Wrong TU. It's not personal he just doesn't bring a game that's anywhere near the level we paid and are continuing to pay imo. He is a good intercept mark as i've said on many occasions but a very limited footballer with ball in hand.

He's just ok Wise. Given the coin/2 first rounders he should be performing at May's level by now. The ROI isn't there for mine. We'll agree to disagree.

We need a coach/team that will bring that week in week out. The time for excuses and "go to sleep" performances like today ended at the end of the big excuse year that was 2019. We have a half decent list that should be doing better against mediocre/ok clubs but as you say, always 1 step vs 3 back. We are STILL short of a classy outside mid who can finish on the run (hitting up forwards and kicking goals) and a genuine KPF who can take a few clunks inside 50 and score on a regular basis. Weid should be the 2nd stringer to whoever that KPF is. Ideally that should be Cameron but won't happen.

Sorry but the ability to switch and occasionally hit up a loose on the 45 isn't limited to smaller / medium blokes in the AFL Bin. I've even seen Maxy do it on occasions! Opposition medium talls and intercept backs are also capable of doing this from time to time when they spot a free available on the fat side. If his skills are limited to (bulk of time) only laying off backwards and/or kicking down the line then IMHO the big contract and the two first rounders are a bust (in the context of what was paid / is being paid vs actual match day returns).

Rediculously off the charts Even on a big day most top liners won't gain more than about 580. Surely this popped up as part of the half time review with a strategy/game day analyst!!!??? Anyone?.... "Shut this bloke down guys or he's headed for a record / damaging day!!" Wowsers!

Reads it ok as an intercept defender but simply isn't damaging enough with ball in hand and mostly takes the path of least risk. His short to medium kicking game is pretty ordinary. He will either quickly cheap kick it backwards and transfer the pressure or kick long down the line. While there is nothing wrong with the latter option he does tend to take his sweet azz time deciding to do so if there's no immediate lay off out the back. Rarely attempts to switch and understandable given his kicking limitations. This poses a real problem for our defence and game off HB in general IMHO as it .... 1. Makes us too predictable when he gets the ball which is quite a bit; 2. Means we are unable to take advantage of the switch even if it's on; and 3. We are not testing / pushing the opponent often enough covering our switch meaning they conserve more energy even when we are in possession and are able to set up for the predictable down the line (most of the time).

While i agree Kozzie must be rested Im not sure Bedford is the answer at this point. Whatever happens we need to get Viney to play a mostly forward role and Gus to play most of his time in the middle. Time to bring in Bennell (again) for Vanders me thinks and try and get us a target for the mids on the outside and some run. Rivers comes in for Harmes. The only way i'd be playing Harmes is for a specific lock down role on a damaging mid which he should've been doing today.

Back to 'type' yet again. We were a mile off it today and found out as pretenders. Too many passengers along with a game style that just doesn't cut the mustard when the opp play a short sharp possession game and/or running game off HB. We have no answer and part of it is the lack of virtually any pressure inside our 50 and STILL unable to cover the opp's outliers at stoppage. Small, medium forwards and T-Mac all let us down today. They were all pretty woeful aside from Weid and Fritta in the air. I know it was windy but it was windy for both clubs. When the going gets a little tough our skills go missing. It's the sign of a very flakey team and makes us too easy to beat. The opp know if they just pressure us hard enough, for long enough, we will eventually crack and become turnover kings for a comfortable win. Also their defence must know they are in for a field day if they have reasonable skills and some run off HB. We might still win a few cheapies against poor opposition but we are nowhere near a finals worthy team at this point. Over to you Simon and brains trust.

Zero.... as soon as we come up against a half decent team our skills, and our game style/match ups collapse like a pack of cards. It's been the same story under SG since the get go.