deejammin'

1. Hawthorn 2. West Coast 3. Collingwood 4. Sydney 5. Freo 6. Geelong 7. Carlton 8. Kangaroos -------------------- 9. Adelaide 10. Richmond 11. Melbourne 12. St Kilda 13. Essendon 14. Brisbane 15. Port Adelaide 16. GWS 17. Gold Coast 18. Bulldogs This is my prediction. I think Adelaide will slide, big time, to miss the eight, a more normal draw, some backmen returning to their usual output, the loss of Tippett and ensuing disaster for their club will have them slip. Also, Freo are seriously good, which is why I have them up there. Essendon are overrated, St Kilda still have champions who will prevent them from slipping below the very ordinary teams below them. Carlton, provided they have a more normal run with injury, and though it pains me to say it, will improve drastically this year, they have a good list and Ratten was not a great matchday coach, Malthouse should get them into 7th at least. I have Richmond just above us, but I think we could catch them, as once again I believe they are overrated. My Best case for us is 10th and worst could be anywhere below that, I would be happy with 10-12 depending on the nature of our losses. Edit: My smoky is Sydney's older players to go over the edge and for Sydney to miss the four, replaced by Geelong, Freo or Carlton

I would also add to what I said above that some other clubs are in a position to take a punt on project players. Bennell and Morton have some serious competition in the WC side, if they break their way in thats great for WC, if they don't its actually no great loss, they have a strong list that has played finals two years in a row, they have time to let players like Morton and Bennell give it a crack. Our club does not have the luxury of picking up project players, we have enough of them as it is, what we need is consistant contributors where we know what we are getting. We hit rock bottom this year and everyone at the club knows we must improve, for the good of the players, we need to start contesting games to the final minutes and winning. If we keep waiting for potential players to develop whilst performing like we have the last 6 years, we may forget how to win entirely!

I am somewhat suprised that this is the first mention of structure and roles in this thread. It is a common occurence in the AFL for clubs to have to move on players as they have a surplus of one type and not enough of a different type of player for a different role. In our case I think the following players were too similar:Morton, Bennell, Petterd, they are all relatively skinny not quite forwards, not quite mids, who never had a clear role they owned, had potential but were in and out of the side due to form and injury. Gysberts also fulfills all these criteria except that he is a pure mid, nonetheless, he wasn't ready to fill any of the roles our "ins" will. The fact is we had a surplus of this type of player and some clubs may have a dearth and need of what they provide, but I don't think these players performing elsewhere in a role we have filled means anything about Neeld. If anything it says alot about how the list was structured under Bailey, taking too many of one type and one age with not enough of a view towards having a balanced list. For example if Dawes has a stellar year at Melbourne next year and Lynch has an average year but plays his role with the pies winning the flag I doubt anyone will consider Dawes a failure on Bucks part.

I also think the last 3 points are good one's and should happen. We will get beaten by more than 4 goals, hell North made the finals this year and what did Hawthorn beat them by? We should hope to be competitive in every game but if a seriously good team turns it on for one game I don't think that is an instant fail, especially considering where we are coming from. As for losing 8 games by less than a goal the closest we have gotten to this in recent memory is when we lost 4 games by less than a goal in 2007 (also had a 11 point loss to the pies where we were close). I think if the three bottom points happen, we dominate games for periods. Win 7-12 games and are competitive and in the game at 3 qtr time in over 75% of our matches that is a pass mark.

Can we all chill out a little on Davey, he is completing pre-season, thats better than nothing. I appreciate the reports and love being told everything about them, including the negatives. Davey may or may not be in the team next year and he may or many not recover his speed and increase his endurace. As a Melbourne supporter I will be hoping for the best and supporting him in his attempt to regain his old form, there is far too much writing him off completely so early for my liking.

2011 was a disgrace of a year. Those totals look nice on paper but the actuality was quite different, for a start most of the wins were in the first half of the season before we capitulated badly and other teams figured us out. Also, two wins were against a first year Gold Coast, which makes 6 and a half wins as I don't think Gold Coast counts, one was against Port Adelaide who were barely a team in 2011 (they couldn't beat Gold Coast) in Darwin (which makes the game bizarre every year), another against Brisbane (where we fell over the line), and wins against Adelaide and Freo in Melbourne in which both opposition teams didn't show up. Thats 2 and a half honourable wins, while on the other side of the ledger there was a flogging from West Coast, Carlton, Geelong (186), Hawthorn (sound familiar) and bad losses to Richmond and Port Adelaide (remember the team that was barely a team?) in the second half of the year. As i count it, thats two and a half real wins in 2011 and one in 2012. Yes 2012 was even worse, but considering all the off-field turmoil, the seeming senior player revolt, Jurrah, bad luck with injuries and a team that was clearly not fit enough going around there were many reasons rather than simply that we got worse. Neeld will be Judged on 2013, as hopefully we will get to put a team he believes in on the field and the club can avoid the constant tragedy that plagued us in 2012. But if we are going to hang our hats on 2011 as a retrospective success then we are in real trouble. Lastly, the most interesting thing from 2011 is how we performed against the top 4 teams. lost to Geelong by 186, West Coast by 104 and 48, Hawthorn by 55 and 54, Collingwood by 88. Overall we lost to the top four by 535 points!! An average losing margin of over 89 points! This shows how far from the top teams we were. 8 and a half wins means nothing if you can't get within 8 goals of any top side. Let alone 8 goals being the absolute closest you get! In 2012, we lost to Hawthorn by 66, Sydney by 101, Collingwood by 42, Adelaide by 69pts. Admittedly we played two less games, but its still only 278 points, an average losing margin of 69.5. Far better than our 2011 effort. Showing that even though we played better against weaker teams in 2011 we were actually better and more competitive against top sides. Maybe looking too closely for a silver lining as both season were complete shite, however 2011 was no great season. It was terrible!

Me too, especially when it was moved into Demons news about our new signings.

The better question is how many did Morton earn?

Its also worth noting we have had a lot of success with the Rookie list, Jamar, Davey, Mckensie, Nicholson, Evans, Magner have all been good for our club and if we pick up two young kids and give them time we may well uncover another primary list player.

I agree with you in the sense that we need to be more competitive against all sides this year, and I will be hoping we could be in a game for 4 quarters against Hawthorn, unlike our recent efforts. However in my opinion Hawthorn will be one of the top 3 sides in the AFL in 2013, with Brian Lake bolstering one of their most deficient areas, a number of key players entering their prime, Hodge potentially playing a full season and with the full list seriously hurting from last year looking to make amends. I am far more concerned with us beating teams like Port, WB, North, Essendon, Brisbane, Richmond and even Carlton before we even consider seriously challenging Hawthorn.

Great post DA, I agree, I think there is more than one option for almost every role, although the talent is admittedly far deeper for some rather than others. I don't see any players gifted games though, even if someone like Jamar has a down time you would think Spencer and Gawn would be breathing down his neck. its seems like this could be a great time for our footy club. I can't wait for 2013.

Thanks so much to everyone for the reports. One of my favourite things this time of year. Can't wait to get to some training sessions myself. Also, noticed Dunn rucking against Spencer in the photos on the club site. Does anyone know if this is a new role for him? HBF pinch hitting in the ruck would be a new one.

Well, the primary list is complete, still very light on for Senior and Veteran players but with a lot of quality players to move into the Senior category next year, as well as having added some quality experience and leadership to these groups we've done all we can do to balance this area of our list this year. Our young potential is massive, guys like Toumpas, Viney, Hogan, Barry, Kent and Evans all have the potential to be a great group in the future. Also the meat mof our list looks far more balanced and competitive than the last 3-4 years, it will be tough to figure out what our best 22 is until we start playing some games. I think overall this has been a great off-season for the club and am more confident than the last 2 years that this could be a genuinely good season with some solid competitive performances against good sides and many more wins. I saw EQ do a similar evaluation to this in her reports and I thought it could be useful to have a full primary list split this way, also I know that players like Tapscott, Howe, Blease will spend time through the midfield but I would expect them to rotate through forward flanks hence why I list them there. Also while I know Gillies and Watts and big boys I think they are more likely to play running roles than key position defence which is why I am classing them as flankers: Key Position Forwards: Clark (Back up ruck), Dawes, Pedersen (Back up Ruck), Fitzpatrick (Back up Ruck), Hogan (2014) Medium Flankers/Small Forwards: Byrnes, Davey, Blease, Tapscott, Howe, Midfielders: Trengove, Grimes, N Jones, Sylvia, Mckensie, Rodan, Viney, Toumpas, Barry, M Jones, Kent, Taggert, Evans, Bail, Jetta, Couch, Magner Rucks: Jamar, Gawn, Spencer, Medium Flankers/Small Backs: Watts, Dunn, Strauss, Nicholson, Gillies, Terlich, JMac, Tynan Key Position Defenders: Frawley, Garland, TMac, Sellar, Davis *Bold = Rookie

I'm of the opinion that we have turned Picks 3, 4, 13 and 26, into three top 5 draft picks (Toumpas, Hogan and Viney), a second rounder (Barry) and a premiership centre half forward originally drafted at 28 (Dawes). That's an incredible return! Regardless of whether you like insiders more than outsiders or whatever if even half of these players make the impact we expect them to MFC will be a far far better side than we have seen for a very long time. Well done FD.

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! Thats all.

Hard not to get excited about it, I mean: Huge Potential: Hogan, Viney, Toumpas, Barry Solid Proven contributers: Pedersen, Gillies, Rodan Experienced leaders from sucessful clubs: Dawes, Byrnes, = Soooooo much better than where we were at pre this time of year (PS Wines would still be an incredible result also, and if we can sneak a gem with one of our other picks it will be a very exciting time)

Hogan, Viney, Toumpas, Barry, Dawes, Pedersen, Gillies, Byrnes, Rodan = **&((%^& Awesome!!!!!!

Thanks BH, Opkick and Steamin' for your reports and pictures. Sounds like Viney had a bit of a blinder in the running. Thats great news! Also good to hear Trenners is looking spritely, if he can get his depth back into his kicking and a little more acceleration added to the hard yards and 1%ers he had this year 2013 could belong to him. Also I understand the constant reports on Clark, but I hope we can all just relax a little bit, he was always a bit ahead to this point in his recovery, he's wearing normal shoes, and doing running on the low grav treadmill, maybe there will be minor setbacks, but lets not jump at shadows.

Actually its a fair comparison, .6 goals difference over their careers is not that large and considering they play the same role in two of the best teams from the last 5 years its pretty apt. In terms of the comparison for 2012 Roughhead played 6 games as KPF whilst Franklin was out mid-season, Dawes didn't do this at all, Cloke played every game. Also Dawes played with a broken knuckle for the majority of the year, Roughhead was relatively injury free after coming back from his Achilles pre-season, finally Roughhead played in a team that kicks far more goals than Dawes' Collingwood (Collingwood 350, Hawthorn 435), its a chicken and the egg argument but Collingwood plays a far more defensive low scoring style than Hawthorn so Roughy has an easier time getting goals. As for more than 30 goals most 2nd KPF kick below this, and with Mitch in the forward line thats what you would expect Dawes to be. Only the very best teams 2nd KPF kick more than 30 goals (Roughhead, Tippett and Podsiadly being the only 3 this year), and the premiers had only one goalkicker over 40 goals in Jetta, the KPFs for Sydney all kicked around 30 goals and less (Goodes (arguably 3rd KPF) 37, Reid 31, LRT 27), yet they did pretty well. All Dawes has to do for us is create a contest, kick enough goals to help us win games and support Mitch Clark. Saying he hasn't kicked over 30 goals is irrelevant to whether or not he will be successful, football isn't about KPF kicking all your goals anymore.

In which case should we go back to our respective posts on Menzel?

Not to burst any bubbles, but also to alleviate any fears here are the two Grand Finalist's players over 193cm: Basically they have the same amount as us, and all are similarly heavy. Basically it seems like this is a normal amount of talls for an AFL list. Also it seems that AFL players in general are getting taller, just in doing this excercise it became aparent that players under 180cm are relatively rare (the swans only have 2!) and also that several teams have players in the 190-194cm range playing vastly different roles, eg Grundy is a KPD at 192cm while Goodes plays largely as a wingman/midfielder at 194cm. Basically all the teams are tall, they just contain a range of body types and abilities suited to roles. Hawthorn 2012: Bailey 206cm Lowden 204cm Hale 201cm Grimley 199cm Boumann 196cm Franklin 196cm Roughead 193cm Birchall 193cm Gunston 193cm Schoenmakers 193cm Sydney 2012: Pike 200cm Mumford 199cm White 197cm Reid 195cm Walsh 195cm Roberts-Thompson 194cm Everitt 194cm Goodes 194cm A. Johnstone 193cm Richards 193cm

I would like Hogan to be #3, having grown up a G.Lyon fan it would be great to see a big forward in the great man's number. I would like Hogan and Dawes in #3 and #5, I"m a romantic, so Colin Sylvia to move to #1, Viney to have #12, Byrnes in #10, Rodan #33, Pedersen #15, Gillies #27, Wines? in #23, Barry #45 would be good too for the great M.Whelan.

Hi I really liked the interview too, seems very confident, I loved it when he said "get this club back to where it belongs", it sounded like he meant it. Also I think the emphasis on respect for the coaching group seems to me to imply he may have had a few problems with old FIGJAM.

Sad for it to end this way for Bartram, a true Demon. Thanks for the memories and good luck with future endeavours.

Thanks for the info BH, how is Trengove's kicking going? Is it back to his first two years or is he still struggling to get depth?