binman

Perfect MFC weather: No rain. No humidity. No wind. And with the temp not dropping below 22 degrees, no dew (dew point 7 degrees). No excuses. Game time: 26.6 degrees Light winds all evening perfect

Win, lose or draw tommorow night, the dees will start favourites against the crows. Woeful, with some injury concerns.

Agree, it's tough in the VFL without a decent, big bodied ruck. It's also important in terms of being able to practice similar set ups etc in the magoos as the ones. I think verell looks a player. Undersized, but he's young and will be a big lad in 12 months time. A year at Casey will be terrific for his development.

They deserve to be favourites. Which, if we lose, is worth remembering. But as I posted earlier, 1.46 is, in punting speak, unders (under the true odds). Forget battle of the midfield, it will be a battle of defences. They will look to go fast from the back half, and push up aggressively. Tough to stop, but we are best placed in the AFL to do so. Particularly if we can minimise Alirs intecept impact (i reckon fritter might get the job, after doing such a great job on Sicily) But if we can move the ball quickly and spread hard, their defence will struggle big time to stop us kicking a winning score. Hell, they couldn't stop the tigers, who butchered the ball all game, scoring almost 100 points. If I was pricing it, port would be 1.70 favourite.

Good call.

My wife has the same reaction when I talk to her about footy. Well, a few things actually now that I come to think about it.

Ta. I was looking for that. Judd went from aprox 6% of the kick outs in the first game, 60% second and 100% third game. He's super reliable and a better short kick than may. And better on the run and at changing the target late. He's playing a role similar to Nick daicos in his 2022, but more defensively accountable one on one. Kid's a jet.

Hate to say it, but that is an excellent read. Hard to imagine there wasn't some coordination with the club. If so, credit where it is due, that's good comms.

Spot on. And we are much better placed this season to exploit that high press with all the work we have done to improve our fast transition from the back half. I'm quietly confident of handy win for this reason. I'm amazed they haven't looked to set up differently defensively this season. I just assumed they would, as they are not going to win a flag if they don't sort their defence. Hinkley must be pretty confident his method can deliver the goods.

Mmm, Gawn and may will be hard to cover, as i'm not convinced we have cover for tmem in term sof young players. But we both may and maxy are on big coin, so we will have some capital to to say target Darcy at Freo down the track (i cant see the Jackson Darcy combo working out long term). And perhaps go after a Taylor or another other quality key defender.

Exactly. And IMHO, McVee, Rivers, Howes and Bowey area all future A graders. For me this is another key thing thing the media is completely missing about the dees - how much scope for improvement we have because we have so many quality young players in our starting 23 that will develop into serious AFL footballers. On Saturday we had four players under the age of 21 - JVR, Windsor, McVee and Howes. And Koz and Rivers are both still only 22. Bowey will come back in when fit and he is only 21. All seven players are in our best 23, meaning almost a third of our best team are 22 or under. That's crazy given we won a flag in 2021 and were top 4 in 2022 and 2023. And Sparrow is only 23 and Chandler turned 24 in January (meaning nine of our best 23 are under 24 or under). So much upside. Upside that not other serious top 4 contender, with the possible exception of the Giants, can match. Compare and contrast to the Pies for instance.

Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

Assuming lever is right that's how I see it too. With hore as sub 3again. If BBB needs a spell, petty could move forward and hore takes his role. Hore is also athletic enough to play a half back flanker role giving them some flexibility if a mid has to come off. For instance, rivers moves into the middle and hore takes his role.

I punt with a mate. Horses and footy (but haven't had a bet on the footy thus far, too variable, though i regret not making some money from the pies losses). We have a very good record for footy bets, with one exception. My record on suggested bets on the dees is woeful (though we had such a good run on us in 2021, including the flag, norm smith and multiple wins in the 24-30 point range that we're still probably somewhere near break even on our dees bets). So, we've made the difficult decision to not back the dees anymore (difficult for me, not him - let's say my mate is little less naturally optimistic, read more realistic, about our chances. To be fair to him, we have been mates for 34 years and I'm probably 8-26 in terms of my preseason optimism being warranted). I note all that by way of putting a warning on the following advice: You can currently get 2.76 for a dees win against Port (who are 1.46 favorites), with the line at +14.5 They are simply crazy odds. Particularly if Lever ends up playing. Defensively, they will struggle to cover our ball movement from the back half on what will be a perfect night for footy (dry, warm, but cloudy so little dew but no humidity). And our defence is perfectly suited to nullify their two key forwards, both in terms of our zone off, help out system and our personnel. The big slow lug, Dixon is perfectly suited as match up for Tomo. Dixon won't exploit Tomos lack of pace of the mark and Tomo is strong enough to compete. Hore and Lever can cover Marshall. Offensively, they will certainly trouble us with what i assume will be their normal super fast ball movement from the back half. And they will certainly get some good looks, particularly with the brilliant Rozee and Butters, and the reliable Houston, driving their transition. But our defensive system is the best in the AFL and we are the team best placed to stand up defensively against fast ball movement (as we have shown against the Pies last year, and even against the Swans in round one). They deserve to be favorites on their home deck, but 1.46 is way unders. As is the 14 point line. I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three seasons? Suggested bet: your super on the dees to make their +14.5 line, and whatever you handy have in your bank account on the dees to win @ 2.76

Maybe 20 years ago. But in our post truth, post knowledge, post covid world, Webber would be one of the first eaten. Sure he studied for years and has continued to develop his expertise through his career, but does he do his own research?

6 votes Steve May 5 votes Jake Lever 4 votes Ed Langdon 3 votes Ben Brown 2 votes Lachie Hunter 1 vote Jack Billings

Yep, forgot cox was a defender. And as you say a really good one too. I'm obviously in the not appreciating how strong their defence is. I'll reassess.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but the back six that played the Roos is, IMHO, not a top 4 defensive unit (i think I'm right in saying that Omac is the only best 22 defender missing, unless you include Corey Wagner). James Aish Alex Pearce Jordan Clark Ethan Hughes Joshua Draper Luke Ryan Alex Pearce is a pretty good player, but not AA quality. And he's their best defender.

Really? That was seriously his theory? Man oh man, some people. Imagine one thinking that, and two going to the effort to call a radio station and broadcast your stupidity.

Agree with all of the above But what i meant waa goody went with hore as the sub. And he was therefore available to replace may down back. Tomo will come in for may, no problems. Excellent cover for may for couple of weeks.

Agree with all. With the possible exception of the assessment of fritter's defensive work. I thought he was average defensively last week, but he got the melksham role on Sicily, a gough job, and limited his intercept marking He also got up the ground to help out defensively and laid a couple of big tackles. I'm about to watch the replay, having watched it live, so I'll keep an eye on fritter.

Freo's list does not have near enough quality or depth. They used a lot capital on Jackson. Jackson will be a good investment long-term, he's a gun - and should really be pushing for AA this year given his age and development. But they had a gun ruck and in the now, needed some class mids and quality key defenders more than a ruck forward who isn't a natural forward, or a one grabber for that matter.

Yep. And in what world is a 9 goal win not a smashing?

Goody said they are 'always happy' to let teams switch and hold onto the ball. Has been a hallmark o his coaching. Paraphrasing, its all about stopping them score. And responding to what the oppo dish up tactically. Another hallmark of goody's coaching. I said to mate leaving the ground that once we got a decent lead they were happy for them to play kick to kick 80 metres from their goals. They are not eating into the margin. And we just wash from side to side which in addition to being bruise free, that sort of half pace running, with occasional sprint is way less taxing that running hard up and down the ground. And if it's about percentage, keeping an oppo to under 40 points and winning by 55 is the way to build it.