binman

I like this, as as i noted yesterday if Howes playing in defence he could take Mcvee's spot at HB allowing judd to move onto the ball, or perhaps onto the wing. But i could also see both playing in defence, with Howes playing the lock down role Judd played last year (he's tall enough to cover the tricky medium forwards like McCarthy). This would free up McVee to play a more aggressive, offensive role higher up the ground in the mould of kitty Coleman or Nick Daicos. Wherer that would leave Bowser and Salo i'm not too sure - one would have to come out of the back half in that scenario you'd think. I know there has been some talk of Salo moving on ball, but personally i cant see it. He is hard at it and strong enough to play an inside mid role, particularly with his fast hands and ability to hit short targets by foot under pressure. But i agree with Fat Tony that his lack of pace would be an issue as a mid. It wouldn't have been an issue a few years ago but teams with slow midfields can get caught out now, particularly defensively - the Lions being an example I wonder if Bowser could be an on ball option? He also could be an inside mid option as like salo he is hard at it and an excllent kick. But unlike salo he quick of the mark. Bowser wasn't a defender as a junior, but i can't recall what his main role/position was. Was he a mid?

Could a premiership player who finishes 6th in a a club's best and fairest, after being top ten the previous year, and who has barely mised a game in five seasons, reasonably be considered a whipping boy?

Agree. I think the wing is his best shot, which means getting past Langers or Hunter (or one them moving to a different role). And Howes is also probably in competition for the wing spot, though he could also play at HBF (perhaps taking Mcvee's spot at HB allowing judd to move onto the ball). On whipping boys status i think the front runners are (in order) Spargs, TMac and Benny Brown - with a watch on Fullerton if he finds his way into the ones. Maybe Laurie too if he keeps getting games when he makes little impact.

True nuff.

Nah, can't see him becoming a whipping boy. As self appointed DL defender of whipping boys, i don't think he is made of the right stuff to be be a fully fledged whipping boy. For a start he has to get a regular spot in the ones so he can be accused of taking the spot of a player deemed more worthy. And he is the son of a gun, so there is too much good will for him to cop it. But on a serious note, I hope you prove to be correct Webber but i'm a bit more ambivalent about his chances of taking his game to another level and being a regular in the ones. I agree he is super professional (which i think can be a really underrated attribute - though not by coaches and teammates), but i'm not sure he has 'all the tricks' or the x factor. That said i think what he does has is an excellent tank, covers the ground well and is developing into a terrific athlete - attributes that have never been more important and will only continue to grow in importance. And maybe i under value his skills because he is so disciplined and eschews flair. I think his preparedness to work hard means he will further build his tank and become an even better athlete, which will give him an edge over many teammates and an excellent chance of cementing a best 22 spot. And as Gator noted, and as you imply, he is super coachable and we know Goody rewards players who play their assigned role and follow instructions.

That surprises me a bit i have to admit. But only in the sense that he is quick over the first 20 meters as i've always thought his cruising speed is pretty quick. Good combo. Do you see Woey making it Gator? Or perhaps a better question is do you think he has good upside? (i'm not sure myself).

I like Gus back. I'm not sure about Rivers going into he middle, in large part because as you note he doesn't have much experience there. But if they are thinking about Rivers playing some time in the middle (or perhaps even Mcvee), Gus as a sweeper down back gives them some flexibility to pull that rein.

Laurie is training predominantly as a forward. That's interesting. Makes sense i guess. But with Spargs looking to cement his spot and the Kolt and Sestan (and to a lesser extent McAdam, who i see vying for melk's role) both hoping to come into the forward line as smalls/mediums there's a bit of competition for a spot. I would see him as a mid, as he works very well in congested areas. Agree. I reckon inside mid is his go. As you note, good in congestion, has a low centre of gravity, good hands in tight and good kicking skills.

Perhaps i'm misremembering, but my recollection is Laurie predominantly played as a mid at Casey last season. As i wrote on DL at the time i was really, really surprised he came in to play half forward late in the season instead of Spargs. Maybe he ends up fighting with Spargs for a spot in the forward line. But whilst his kicking skills would be handy up forward in terms of hitting leading targets etc he doesn't look a natural forward to me. Kev, if Laurie cements a spot in the ones what position do you see him playing?

If this was one of those old school caption this photo competitions i'm not sure this would be the winner.

Salo looks in ripping nick. A fit and firing Salem will be a huge fillip.

He's a different cat.

This is good, and i think well over due - ie the club coming out and putting Clarry 'on extended leave to deal with his ongoing health issues'. Without getting into the specifics of his issues and what is happening for Clarry the absolute right approach by the club is taking a health focused approach - for Clarry, the team and fans. Making it clear he is on extended leave takes some of the pressure off, allows fans to recalibrate and come to terms with the likelihood we won't see him in the team for a while. But perhaps even more importantly it means the rest of the team can focus on their own preparation without some of the fugazi. Easy to forget i reckon how stressful and unhelpful this has all been on his teammates, particularly those who have been long term mates such as tracc and Salo. Personally i'm approaching the situation like Clarry had an ACL last season. He's out, he's not coming anytime soon and it's not clear how long it will be before he does come back. I'm sending positive vibes Clarry's way and wish him nothing but the best.

Goody has track record of some left field selection of young, unheralded players. Bowser and Mcveee being two such examples (none other immediately come to mind, but i feel like i'm missing some). So, Sestan will know that if he does the work he has shot. And personally i think a good one because we could really do with his kicking skills an general smarts. Probably not really left field but i reckon Howes and Woey are both massive chances to be in the round one team.

I reckon he could. Sestan has some real x factor about him and like Mcvee, who is another Taylor special, his point of different is his foot skills. But like Mcvee needs an AFL tank and body - which he looks like he is working on. Sestan has the ability to kick those across the body on the 45 kicks that players like Daniel, Miers, Guthrie, Crisp and Nick Daicos are so good at hitting. With all teams employing zones and and all team defence having players with that skill has become increasingly important to cut through congestion and find free players.

Fair call. The Crows would be the obvious team that could make that jump.

I'm not sure May is one of our three most important players as we have players, for example Disco, Petty and Tmac, who could, to some degree, cover his role. But i could easily be persuaded. Def a super, super important player for us. We have no such player to cover maxy who i think is out most important player by a mile. In fact i think maxy is more important to our premiership chances than other player in the AFL to their team premiership chances. To be honest our reliance on Maxy has always worried me from the perspective of risk management - ie we lose him we are xx%%#&&. Agree tracc is next - in large part because his combination of power, skill, raw ability and positional flexibility cannot be covered.

Ta. In punting parlance, on my assessment $3 for the dees to to make the top 4 is overs. And $3 for the blues to make top 4 is unders. And on my assessment $9 for the dees to win the flag is well and truly overs. I would have us as second favorites, behind the Pies, to the the win the flag at $6.50. By the by i think we will win the flag.

100% agree. Goody has said from the get go that the aim is to build a team that is contention for a flag for many many years. And that is exactly what they have done. To be objective as possible I apply a racing punters lens to the question of how we'll go next season. In punting the key data point is of course form - of each individual horse in isolation, and more importantly how the form of each horse compares with its competitors. In doing form, (good) punters look at historical form and recent form. Applying a similar lens to the next afl season then these are the pertinent facts (im conceptualising the 2024 season as a Group one WFA classic like say a cox plate). Using the last three seasons as a reference point for historical form to assess the chances of the dees finishing top 4: - the dees have finished top 4 three times - the dees have won one flag - that is the best 'form' of any team over that period - the pies are next best with two top 4 finishes and one flag - next best is the lions with 3 top 4 finishes and one GF appearance - swans and port can argue over next best So, over three seasons the best three teams based on their records are in order, the dees, pies and lions. In horse racing parlance they are top 3 rated teams Looking at recent form (last season): - after very strong win loss records in the regular season the pies won the flag and the lions made the gf. They were the two best teams in 2023. - against the two best teams in the 2023 the dees went 50 50 against both, including a narrow loss against the premiers in the QF - so if for instance you really rate the pies, on form it is logically inconsistent not to also rate the dees What about up and comers? In racing there's of course always the possibility of a new star coming along and usurping the current class horses. Are there any such contenders in the AFL? The historical evidence (another important data point in horse racing) is that it is relatively rare for a team to come from outside the 8 and make top 4 the next season. Not impossible but rare. That knocks 10 teams out of being a top 4 contender Of course more common for teams who made the 8 to take the next step and make the top 4. Can one of the blues, swans, giants or saints make the top 4? Absolutely. And port can stay in the top 4 too of course (and I think will). But applying my form equation none of those teams' record over the last three season makes for a compelling argument. And looking at last season's form only the blues and giants make a strong case for taking the next step and finishing top 4. On the dees key competitors I largely agree with Little Goffy's excellent assessment. I really rate the giants and hard to argue with the blues form. So both a chance for a top 4 finish. I can't see swans or saints making it Port finished top 4 and I think if Hinkley can implement a modern defensive system will do so again. Another factor to consider is class. In both horse racing and footy class is more subjective than form (on form the record is the record(. Personally i would argue we have the best list in the AFL (lions, port, pies, giants next). And i also think we have the most balanced list of say the top 10 teams in terms of the balance and spread of age and experience (pies, port, giants next). So in totality what does that mean from a punters form perspective? The dees are very likely to make the top 4, as are the lions and pies. The dees are very unlikely to miss the 8. I haven't looked at the current betting markets for top 4 and top 8 They would have nothing in the pools and futures betting is a mug's game (they may not even have them up yet). But they would be the most accurate assessment as the prices are set by the professional analysts bookmakers employ and are yet to be influenced by the market (ie punters betting). If I was to set a market/price for the dees it would be: Top 4 finish: $2.50 Top 8 finish: $1.40 (winx says hello)

Don't look at the player bios on the MFC website then. I wanted to see how many games sparrow had played and so as logic would suggest went to the MFC website player info section. Couldn't believe it - the bio for all players except newbies is as per the end of the 2021 season (i'm not sure about the stats). I mean that is is amateur hour stuff. Surely up to date info about all players is the minimum fan might expect from an AFL club.

Me too. As i noted before there are two, maybe three, aspects to comms - fan engagement (eg social media, content etc), media engagement (eg interviews, pressers etc) and issue/crisis management. But just focusing on fan engagement, like you i love videos and info on how they train and prepare. I'm not on social media, unless you count Demonland, but from what i have seen from clips etc posted on DL, the information and videos MFC put out on the socials often seems pretty brief and fluffy (lots of clunkily edited video put to god awful soundtracks). Popcorn. I understand people love that stuff, and that's great and know I'm probably in the minority but i prefer more depth and detail. The super positive response on here for the brilliant photos from 666 and fantastic track reports (thanks all) suggest i'm not alone in that. I get that doco style videos like the the Hell and Back series are expensive and that in a resource constrained environment perhaps the cost outweighs the benefits - perhaps being the operative word. Plenty on here rubbished that series - less talk, more action and all that. But for me it gave me a reason to actually visit the MFC website, the online front door to the club. Which in turn meant engaging with other information and content about the club. It is part of the value proposition for members and sponsors. I watched that series of videos at least twice (once after winning the flag - which was fascinating because you could see the genesis of how we got there) and thought they were brilliant because they gave me a real insight into how they train and prepare and what goes into being AFL ready. For example, the footage and interviews with Vanderburgh about the incredible ongoing rehab program (for his feet issues) he had to endure just to train and play amazed me. Crazy stuff. But in this day and age clubs don't need to spend a fortune on high end productions to produce content that is engaging and interesting to people like myself. As an example, Freo, who i think do really good comms, have these videos on their website which i found really interesting from a technical point of view and getting a sense of how AFL teams prepare and develop systems - and I'm not even a Freo fan (by the by, for any Omac fans like myself check out 3:11 to 3:38 in the second video - text book):

All good points. To be honest i was in shock after the QF game and Gus incident - in large part because it was the worst, most awful, febrile environment i have experienced at any sporting event. Because of that, and becuase he had been quiet for the preceding few weeks, the JVR suspension washed over me and i didn't really factor it in when thinking ahead to the blues game. But to a large degree, as you imply, JVR missing that game was the straw that broke the back. Even if he had another game he would have had his chances and with his accuracy most likely taken them. And JVR strikes me as a big game player and so there is every chance he would have risen to the occasion and had a big impact. And Smith and JVR would have been a hard combo for the blues to cover. I reckon there is one factor that the impact of which consistently gets underplayed by fans and the media (and me too) - luck. People seem to hate suggesting luck is a factor - i suspect because it feels like making excuses and/or perhasp it so ephemeral. But however anyone assesses our performance, its hard to argue that once again we had our (un)fair share of bad luck.

I feel your pain. Jokes aside, as long term dees fan our outlook looking forward for say the next 10 years or so looks a hell of a lot more positive than say it did in 1980, 1990, 2000 and certainly 2010. That said, a positive forecast is no guarantee of flags and i am in furious agreement with you that we left a flag on this table this year.

This time x 1000. Pay peanuts get monkeys. They clearly have made a decision not to invest in comms to the level i would expect of any professional sporting club in an elite competition. Personally i think it is short sighted as fan engagement is critical in terms of continuing to grow the fan base and membership But its more than just fan facing content and engagement. Good comms is critical in terms of managing potentially fraught issues, not to mention responding to any crisis or serious incident and/or damage control. Look at last season. The Grundy demotion to the VFL to 'work on his forward craft' was a shocker from a comms perspective and the best you could say about the messaging around the clarry injury and related palaver is that they did a good job of keeping things in house. But they let Goody twist in the wind with the weekly updates he had to give. I don't blame Richo or Goody for those comms snafus - particularly goody who is not a natural media performer like say Mcrae. Getting such messaging right is the responsibility of the comms team. Bottom line is Demonland is much better source of information and content for dees fans than the MFC which should not be the case. And speaking of Demonland, from a comms perspective the club are wasting an opportunity for basically free comms and promotion. Instead of locking out fans from Casey training they should be encouraging people like Picket Fence to get downs there and report to their hearts content. Even give them special access (get some players or club official to chat to them). Then cross promote on the MFC socials. Free content and great engagement. Simples. Oh and they could hire 666 to take photos.

Too bad you picked the dees to support then. Failure is part of the deal. Not sure how long you have been a dees fan, but as someone who has been supporting the dees for half a century the current model of failure sure beats the 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s and 2010s model.