binman

I tipped Schism last week at Caulfield, but it was scrathed. Good horse

So my selection for the trifecta is Kingsgauard. Will roll along on speed and be hard to get past. No bets bets, though having looked at race 6 i had a quick glance at some other races at hawksbury. Victorem will be hard to beat i would have thought. And White Moss and Up and rolling will on speed and hard to beat. Both are pretty good value i think.

Going to 1400 from 1000 is better than going back in distance. I usually draw a line thoufh horses going back in sistance, though if they are sprinters 1200 back to 1100 (or at worst back to 1100) or 1100 back to 1000 can be ok if they are simply better at the 1000. DZ is not a spinter though is it? Il do the form for the Hawksbury cup.

Perhaps you'r right and it was my confirmation bias at work.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one rjay. I don't think they should put out comms for every little thing, i think they should have been a little clever and mentioned it in an informal way to manage the 'narrative' Why - because even if not leaked it would have been noticed during the game that Maccas was not in the box and in the hot house that is the AFL in this town had the potential to become a story. And my evidence? It did become a story and Mahoney had to react to it.

Again i wonder about the external communication by the dees. Add this to the growing list of communication blunders (the departure of watts, the camp, the silence after the round 23 pies game, the woeful website etc). I mean as if in the AFL fishbowl that exists in Melbourne someone was not going to pick this story up (and really it is unbelievable it was a person contracted by the MFC who ran with it). Sheesh. Comms 101 is to get ahead of stories, which could have easily happened in a casual, informal way. For eg mahoney booking a interview on the weekend and responding to the inevitable question about how we respond to last weeks game, with an answer like: 'We have looked at the game as an opportunity to improve all all aspects of how we go about things, including how we can better communicate key messages to our players when the opposition gets a run on. It is easy to forget how young our list is and we have two key leaders in TMac and Jack out so this week we are going to have Macca go back to his role that he played so brilliantly for the last 3 years as a key person communicating directly to players on the bench and conveying messages from the box' Do we do this? No, instead once again we are reactive and in damage control. And to be honest comments such as: 'That’s been the change and there isn’t much more to add to it than that.' begs the question 'well perhaps there is not much more to add but i'm really interested in the bit you are leaving out ' Amateur hour.

So that me done for Autumn fellas. Me and my betting partner had a pretty good day on Saturday, particularly in Sydney where i was fortunate to get the pattern right (on the speed, near the fence). In addition to my best bet (tough win by a horse that is a winner - good odds) my best value bet, Higher Ground saluted - just, the caller called it the other way around, nice surprise. Ironically also got the next in a close photo with the only horse that defied the pattern to win running on in Moss Trip. Very good win and a horse to follow. But the punters lament is it could have been a huge day with a touch more luck. We had six seconds! That included a 20-1 pop in Adelaide (didn't have it each way). And i thought Guerrier in Sydney was going to win, but just ran out of gas (and unfortunately just out of the placings as i had it each way). I was also a bit annoyed not to get something from the Le Romain trapeze Artist quinella, which paid a remarkable 10.80. Crazy. Thye were the two horse i really liked. Should have boxed up a quinela in addition to the box trifecta i took (or even better instead of it). And even more stupidly did not take the Demonland trif! Also annoyed weir elected to run Brave smash. Clearly does not like firm tracks. Good luck on the punt fellas. To keep an interest i'll do the form for the elected DL weekly trifecta race, post it on this thread and even put a little money on it! Roll on Spring!

My best bet for the weekend is Sprightly Lass at Caulfied. Some very short horses at Caulfield and i think most will salute - French Emotion, Widgee Turf, Kiwia, Nature Strip and Cliff's Edge. Of those only Widgee Turf and perhaps Kiwia are backable really. But i think Sprightly Lass is overs at 3.60 as i think there is only one real danger in that race, Property. The form through Dothraki is very solid and it always gives a great sight. Best value for the day (apart from Sprightly Lass) Higher Ground at at Randwick Best longshots for the day Mo Femme at Morphetville and Guerrier at Randwick

Have only just finished making my final selections and emailing our bets to my betting partner. I found this race super hard in terms of choosing another winner bet in so far as i i kept coming back to trapeze artist (though am concerned it had its grand final last week). I'm going to have to say Le Romain, but really only because Brave Smash and Trapeze Artist were taken. A good horse but again - and at the risk of being stubborn and repeating my error of last week, i'm thinking on speed will be the go with the rail out 6 metres and no wind to bother front runners. Le Romain will be running on hard and i think pinch a place, but of course can win. For my bet in that race i have actually landed on a box trif of these 3 horses and no win bet - which is very unusual for me. Won't pay much but i find it hard to see what else might place - though I'm somewhat has good rating

I won't do my form to Friday. But trapeze artist was super impressive kast start. I backed le romain last start at huge odds.. A very talented horse but doesn't win out of turn. Those sort of horses often upset the aplle cart. Like catchy an wstb last sat.

I've got one more week in me Macca. I forgot about the All Aged. My Autumn is sputtering a bit so a chance to go out with a good day. Me and my mate are well up this Autumn but have been scratchy the last few weeks. That said we have avoided wipe outs (those awful days when you get no, or very few collects , which are hard to take when you put as many bets on as we do) which is critical n terms of turning a profit and when we have lost it hasn't been too bad. Actually ended up making a profit on Saturday, which was a pleasant surprise because it most definitely wasn't a leaders track. Had to laugh though with Qulaista leading all the way in the last. Which was good because we were on it. I actually watched that before the Sydney cup and thought there was every chance we had snagged the quaddy as we had 4 good chances. Unfortunately i decided to leave WSTB out (which i almost knew would cots me as i did so). Our bets result for the day, believe it or not was the Winx race. Was super confident in Gailo Chop running second so slammed the quinella (which remarkably paid $6.20) and stood it out second in short trif which we got a bunch of times. Happy to give trif numbers in selected races but still think we should put our best bets up. I like to see what people have selected.

Oh oh. Fotoo came from last. On the rails! Abort Will Robinson! Unfortunately too late

In terms of trying to guess the pattern of races it is obviously a bit riky if you punt as i do which is putting all bets on at the start of the day. If i get the pattern wrong i struggle. Last week i read it the same and picking Houtzen was a result of that. But it actually ended up playing ok and horses from mid field had their chances and i couldn't sang any more. That said i had remarkable number of seconds last week (across 3 states). Five or six i think from memory. In an ideal world i would put the first couple on and get a read of the pattern and then adjust selections as required. But my model of punting with a mate doesn't allow that as neither of us can focus on the races enough during the day (other than listening to them) Determining bets between races can be very time consuming, even if you have done the form thoroughly and have narrowed selections down to a handful of chances (which is how i do form)

I hadn't seen that but have backed it. I think i may have posted this before but Sportsbet have a seemingly standing offer of the first four races money back up to $50 if your horse finished 2-4. It always syd and melb but changes for the third venue. The week it is Morphetville so really getting each way with Music bay in a small field. I've done the form for Randwick with the thought it will suit horses on the speed and and sitting 2-3 of the fence (so favouring horses from barriers 8-13). It is one reason i also really like Hiyaam.

Morning punters. Apologies for not putting up my best etc last couple of weeks. Have been flat out Sat mornings. Coincided with a scratchy couple of weeks for me on the punt so i can assure you did not miss much, though my value runner last week was Houtzen (which was just about my only winner). Another tough day in sydney. But big fields mean good vale so fingers crossed. So here are my tips, all at Randwick Best bet: Race 2 no 2 Isaurian Best value: Race 8 no 10 Aloft Best longshot: Race 6 n no 10 She’s a Treasure Good luck on what is really the last day of Autumn for me save a couple of races i like in Morphetville in the next couple of weeks.

G'day punters. Super tricky day at Rosehill tomorrow, a bit more straight forward at Mornington Best bet (and my best of the Autumn thus far): Gailo Chop- a ratings special if ever there was one. At 115 a full 6 points (and therefore 6 lengths) clear of the next best. Loves rain affected going with 3 wins and second from 5 starts on the slow and 3 from 3 in the heavy. 6 from 12 at the distance is not too shabby either. Has Zahra on board who is in hot form. Best value: Peribsen Best long shot: Ball of Muscle (with apologies to Fragonard) And if you want o make some some small change can't go wrong backing Kah in Adelaide for the jockey challenge. not sure what she is tomorrow as they don't put the market up until the morning, but i doubt will be much over 1.50. But she will win easing down. if she is much longer than 1.50 then good value

Punting throws up so many up and downs. Confidently backed Sprightly Miss as it appears many others to do. Won on int an it also got the me the early quaddie a couple of times (crazy small such as it was). Until it the protest scuppered both. Backed Unforgotten in the next and lsitedn to it on my phone. As it so often seems to lost connection with 600 to go with unfogotten at the rear and was annoyed i din't stick with my first thought, Renewed. Only for transmission to resume 30 seconds after the race and he he is giving the price for unforgoten. Crazy. The next in Sydney i came down Silent Sedition and Daysee Doom and zigged not zagged and went Silent Sedition and stupidly din't put a saver on DD despite the fact i love that horse. Did a wide trifecta with 7 horses. Would have got it, albeit with small percentage if i had not got greedy and changed my mind to chase the first four instead and box those numbers. And as i write the Answer my friend gets nutted on the line, which balance the ledger after Sprightly Lass gets there by a 'pixel'. Then loses on protest.

Well it hasn't been a carzy leaders track as it turns out - but still best to be up front. My others bets for melb are: Race 3 Demerrara Race 4 no 3 Metronome 5 Race 5 no 3 Hellova St 5 Race 6 no 4 He Ekcels 5 Race 7 no 8 Theanswermyfriend, saver on no 13 Burrrums Buzz Race 8 no 6 Snipfit and no 12 Filbert Race 9 no 2 Blue Tycoon saver on 1 Milwalkee

I did my form for Flemington based on it being a leaders tracks and if i proved to be correct was confident Holbien would lead and win. It looks like i was right about the leaders track and if so i could well be in for a good day as i have backed leaders from go to whoa.

G'day punters. Had a funny day last week. had to last at Fleminton to get a winner there but blitzed at Randwick to end up with a nice profit. Best etc today: Best Bet: Hear the Cahnt Best value: He Ecksels Best longshot: Latin Boy

G'day punters. My best was Gailo Chp so will have to find another. Best Bet: Shillelagh Best value: Shillelagh Best longshot (each way): Supido Lay of the day: kalemantari Good luck

Speaking of value, i know this is a horse rac8ng thread but Melbourne is currently 2.25 against the cats. That is brilliant value. If i was framing that market i would have us slight favs at about 1.80. Might have to have a go at that (and perhaps also over 39.5) and unlike futures in racing there is no risk of us not starting!

No. In that scenario better to anchor redzel (assuming you really think its going to win) and avoid the temptation to go wide in the other races. Lets say you had redzel as an anchor and had say only two in the other for $40 you get the quaddie 5 times. It might only pay $80 but you get $400. You might also put a small saver on a horse in redzels race to cover redzel getting rolled (like the redkirk warrior example - a horse i love as i backed it in tge Newmarket last year) But most people would spend their $40 by something like 2, 5 and 4 in the non ancor legs. And at best double their money. The tab love it. Much better value to be had to anchor a horse that is say 2.70 - 3.00 as usually there is a horse at similar odds that most quaddie punters can't resist putting in.

Dixie blossoms had the rating to overcome the negatives in its form i didn't like. Good win. As i have said we put our bets on in the morning and i work my stake out around the price it is then. She was $4 at 11am. Came right in. With quaddies sometimes going one out with a really short fav can mean its hard to get value, particularly when horses near the top of the market win the other legs . It can better to take a punt on a shortish horse rather than a raging fav you like in a small field. Or else else take the short fav and don't go too wide in rhe other legs and try and get it a few times .

Did you pick rimraam or the other one? Rimraam was terrific value. Good get. The early quaddie at Flemington was like Sydney's usually are. Small fields in first few legs with one staying race. My mate who I bet with hates quaddies (and all exotics bar thise in the big four races for that matter) because of the takeout and he figures it us better long term just to put more on tgecwinners. And with good reason. We never get them. But I was super confident in those first three legs.. went wide obviously in the last, a race that was diabolical and I out in every horse I marked as a chance. You have have at least one stand out to get 100% (who wants 5%?).