binman

We are making up excuses for poor performance.

What I meant, and should have said is I'm not interested in debating loading and won't respond to rebuttal. Happy of course for people to put any contrary opinion. I just was flagging that i won't respond There is a whole thread on loading to debate the impact of loading. But please, not invested, no care for teammates? [censored] him.

As regulars readers of Demonland know, I believe the biggest factor in our form over the last two months is loading. Not the only factor. But by far the most impactful factor. Regulars reader will also know how frustrating i find the media analysis of our great game. There is a thread asking if people have enjoyed this season. I was reflecting on that question and realized that last season i lapped up every media mention of the dees, whereas as this year i can barely watch anything, such is my frustration with the pathetic level of analysis and how completely wrong it usually is. Demonstone made the reasonable point sometime back that if i get so wound up by David King, then i should just stop watching or listening to him. And i have largely taken that advice. But my issue is how analysis that is just so wrong shapes fans' perception and opinions. Both of these things (loading and rubbish analysis) came crashing together when i watched David King on the 'watchlist' segment on 360 on Wednesday night. I am amazed how few comments there has been on Demonland about the segment, and as far i have seen, not one person pushing back or critising David King. I am still livid. Why? Because David King insulted our players. Insulted our leaders. Insulted our team. Insulted Trac. Insulted Clarry. Insulted Max. Said there was 'no investment there in your teammate. It's every man for himself '. I am ropeable. And on his analysis he is so so wrong. In short his thesis is that teams are 'switching against the demons more than anyone else' in the last 6-8 weeks and that they are able to do so because we are not invested, we are not working hard enough, we are complacent, we have lost our hunger. To make his case he showed a clip from the 2021 round 8 game against the Swans where with our incredible all team defence we completely covered the corridor kick and the switch, forcing the Swans down the line to an aerial contest. He is right in saying that is our method. He is also right in saying that we have not been doing that in the last 8 matches. And to demonstrate that latter point he also showed a clip from the dogs game last weekend where, after a free to the dogs deep in their defence, we had time to set up our grid but didn't and allowed the ball to exit our forward line with relative ease. But he is completely wrong as to why that is the case. If King had chosen any other game we played between round 11 and round 19 instead of that Swans game he literally could have chosen dozens of similar examples of us not covering the switch or failing to get the game looking how we want it to look. Hell, he could have chosen the exact corresponding round 19 game from last year against the same side, where the dogs won because we could not stop them switching or force them down the line. I freely admit that there is fair dose of confirmation bias here, but the three players he highlighted, Trac, Clarry and Sparrow all looked completely exhausted to me. Sparrow was gassed, and bent over sucking in the big ones. Again, i'm not looking for debate, so please don't worry about rebutting me, but we have been fatigued because of loading in EVERY game since round 11 (with the exception of the lions game - which came after the bye and the enforced break). That is why we have been overrun in the second half in EVERY game since round 11 (except the lions game). And that is why we are not stopping teams switch as well as we normally do. Only the Tigers and Freo have an all team defensive system anywhere near as aerobically taxing as ours. Fatigue renders our system sub optimal at best, dysfunctional at worst. And all parts of our method have the defensive system as their foundation. Take that defensive spread away and we are a completely different team. As we all saw between rounds 11 and 19 LAST season. And as we have seen again between rounds 11 and 19 THIS season. And as we will see between rounds 11 and 19 NEXT season (assuming we are top 4 contenders next year). So, King is wrong. Dead wrong. But Joe the average footy fan doesn't know that. Joe the average footy fan laps up the [censored] narrative about the complacent premiers, full of leaders who are not 'invested'. And when we smash Freo tonight, will lap up next weeks equally [censored] narrative about the dees flicking a switch, rediscovering their hunger yada, yada yada. And the pow wow? I have no idea what he was referencing, but he reckons we had a pow wow and that was evidence of our lack of investment (ie because we had to come together to address this issue). I immediately checked Demonland because i had not heard of any such meeting. And there was, and has not been since, anything on here about any 'pow wow'. Perhaps we did have some such meeting. But if not, i am assuming he was referring to our intense training session that got quite a bit of attention. If so, again he is way, way off the mark. As 3183 noted in another thread, we did exactly same thing ahead of our round 20 clash last year, and super intense, match like training sessions were standard for the rest of the season. So, all part of the program, not some line in the sand palaver. I'm not looking for a debate. I understand that many people don't agree with my position on how impactful loading has been on our game. I simply wanted to put this out there before it all gets lost in this next, exciting phase we are about to enjoy. I'm not sure about others, but i for one won't cop our club and our players coping such pathetic, ill informed nonsense. I don't have the technical skills to put the clip on here. Andy will add the clip at a later date, but if someone else has the skills to do that would be great. The date of the show is 27 July and the time stamp is 46.48 to 46.48

The punters, not the bookies

Fixed

And a smart play by Gus. Gus is smart enough to know that his reputation can only be enhanced by showing loyalty, which can only help any post football career. And if he is keen to go into the media, being a one club player, hopefully with a couple of flags in his resume, helps his profile and therefore bargaining power. And in terms of his profile, Melbourne is the place to be.

Not quite echo through the ages - but it's a start!

Supposedly will clear by the arvo. Deck will still be wet, but i presume it drains ok. The problem is the ground is in woeful condition so it will be shifting like crazy i suspect. Which will negate a bit of the advantage the dockers have with leg speed and perhaps make their switch and flick it around style more challenging. Our big advantage over the dockers is our bulls in the middle. The conditions should suit Viney, Oliver and Trac and i reckon their mids will struggle big time to contain them.

Odds watch. Opened 1.90 equal favs, which seemed fair enough given the form lines of both sides, the relative ladder positions and the fact the game is on freo's home deck. And surely no-one would be keen to trust us with their money given we are apparently not hungry or ruthless enough Into 1.86 soon after. Into 1.80 by Tuesday (even after it was announced bb wasn't playing). Into 1.77 on Wednesday. Remarkably, on game day, now into 1.72. The weather might be a factor, but today's forecast is that whilst plenty of rain will fall today, and so the ground will be slippery, it will clear by the arvo. I wonder if Lobb is going to be late out? May drift, but unlikely to get into anything shorter than 1.80. The pros must really think we will magically rediscover our 'hunger'. Because being people who make a living out of punting by being hard nosed, unemotional realists put a lot of stock in such nebulous concepts.

I'm guessing the half unicorn wasn't as rare?

And his defensive running was woeful.

What did they say?

Yep. But i wonder i that is more to do with his reading of the flight as opposed to being out muscled.

So few words. So many grammatical errors.

Which is yet another reason i'm bullish about this game. No-one could seriously be worried about defence could they?

I do wonder if Weed would be better fit for a team like say the bombers or swans who like to engineer space and one on ones inside their 50 with quick ball movement of HB. He is actually a terrific mark on the Dunstall style hard lead. He is an old school, from the square forward i reckon and needs leading lanes to show his best

I agree. Personally i reckon his two biggest weaknesses are: He often seems to have a half second delay in reacting when a second effort is required. He often makes a second effort (though sadly not always), but because of that delay it usually doesn't impact the contest. Going again just does not seem to be instinctive, unlike say JVR He often seems to misjudge the flight of the ball and therefore the ultimate landing point. Compare him to Fritsch, who reads the flight so well and puts himself in the right spot to mark it. Someone in another thread mentioned they thought he might need contact lenses. I'm sure he would use use them if he needed them, but i get where they were coming from as he seems to have issues with depth perception

I don't expect him to be different. I hope he will be different.

Yes, that is what i mean. BB is better in these contests - which are the majority of the contest our talls are involved in. Agree Weed is much better when he gets a chance to run and jump at contests. He looks so much better when he has space. But with our method (ie kick to big packs, little separation for forwards, crowded inside 50s etc etc) he gets bugger all opportunities to run and jump at contests. Weed has got maybe one, two max, chances to lock in the second tall positions. I hope he takes his chance.

Because, as I said, he competes hard in the air and rarely gets outmarked when up and about. Weed doesn't compete hard on the air, and often gets outmarked, even when he is up.and about.

I see Smith is back this week. The more I think of it, the more I like the idea of Smith playing the second tall role. He is everything weed isn't - high intensity, hard at it and loves the contest. And I've always liked the idea of him as a forward - his chaos style, speed and athleticism suits what we need down there, which is almost the forward equivalent of a zone off defender ie get across to aerial contests and either take a big grab or failing that make sure the ball comes to ground. And Smith could also be used as defensive forward to nullify players like Aliir. At 191 cms, he's six centimeters shorter than weed (but 3cms taller than fritter), so obviously he's not going to be a genuine tall. But that is offset somewhat by his huge leap. Accurate kick for goal too. And perhaps creates a match up issue as he is pretty quick and with his height and leap, probably needs a reasonably big defender.

BB's pressure doesn't worry me so much as he competes hard in the air, which i'm not even sure if that is factored into the pressure rating that has been bandied about Weed's pressure absolutely worries me - on the ground and in the air. Weed just disappeared in the second half against the dogs in terms of possessions, marks etc. Which wouldn't be such an issue if he applied big pressure in the air and on the ground. Which he didn't - not even close.

I'm still convinced we will end up with the two talls - not sure if that wik be this week now as i cant see Mitch Brown coming into the side, and JVR is a long shot to be selected, at least this week (i have sneaky feeling he might get a shot on the eve of finals). If BB is right to go next week, and Weed plays ok, i suspect they will both be selected next week

I used to care about players wanting to leave. But not since Gerard Healy left the club to go to the Swans. Outside of Robbie, our best player in that team by a mile. I still wonder how 1987 would have turned out if he didn't abandon the club and his brother. Turncoat. I was furious at the time. He still left. Now i could care less - if Gus wants out, see you later. He is not playing in our midfield. So if that's what he wants, its not going to happen I don't begrudge him trying to to maximize his contract, or explore his options. But i would lose a bit of respect for him, as the great teams always have gun players who have to take a pay haircut to help the cause, Hodge being an example if IIRC. And are celebrated for that sacrifice post career.

This post is funny coincidence. As you posted, i was just writing this on another thread: I was pretty confident our odds would drift a bit (from the 1.86 available yesterday), at least into even money (which is how we opened for this game), particularly after the news BB was still out. But i just checked then, and we have actually come in and are now into $1.80 to win. Which, given we are only two days out from the game (and therefore the pool is pretty big and somewhat immune from big price swings) suggests the pros considered the 1.90 opening quote and the 1.86 available yesterday were both overs, and have invested accordingly, forcing the price down. We still might drift a touch, and maybe even back to even money, but only if the pros think the 2.05 you can currently get for Freo is overs. Given we are playing this game on their home deck, and their form over the last few weeks is at least on par with ours, 1.80 favoritism suggest the market is pretty bullish about our chances. (nb: as i noted in another thread, odds are just an expression of probability. So of course the fact we are favorite for the game doesn't mean we win, or if we do the bookies have got it wrong. At 1.80 favorites, if we play this game 10 times we win aprox 5.5 times and LOSE 4.5 times. Even money is 50 50)