binman

I'm also having my bets tipping season in probably 15 years or more. The last time i did well, the dees were going ok. So no coincidence. I'm coming fourth in the Demonland comp webs, so snapping at you heels. I'm on top of a couple of comps so in pretty good shape there. So i'm pretty motivated to tip correctly I have still not put my tips in as I'm genuinely not sure about tonight's game. We are a better teams, i'm convinced of that. And our system is perfectly suited to negate their game style, not least becuase our defence works best against set ups where one big is the key to the opposition forward structure The variable they worries me is not being sure if we are physically ready for the running, spread and pressure we will need to bring to make our system work. I need to ruminate some more.....

The good thing about Brown playing is that he has an outside chance of marking one of tracc's passes given his height. Any other player and it is kicked a foot over their head. Come to think of it he missed Max by a foot in rbe ladt q, so perhaps Brown needs to pop Charlie on his shoulders

Fatigue

If you apply Occam's razor to the question of why our pressure has dropped of, the answer i come up with is that we are fatigued. We play a very taxing game that is very tiring. And it is logical pressure falls away when the team is fatigued. I reject the idea it is something as vague as a lack of effort. They might be mentally tired, but I don't reckon that is a huge factor. To me the real question is why are we fatigued? We have a number of young players. It is the point of the season that all teams start feeling fatigued, particularly younger teams. But again I suspect we are doing extra training loads and that is a big factor.

I reckon this is the key point.

Wouldn't say he had a blinder. Only had three possessions. And no score. To be fair he only played about 10 minutes by the sound of it as they rested him (having not known the Port game would only be in 4 days when they selected him to pay with Casey)

We didn't (finish full of run in the last quarter). We played with more intensity but still looked well gassed in the last quarter.

I reckon posters have no trouble figuring you out

Yes I would agree. Particularly a couple of excellent kicks.

Reasons are not excuses. Our bottom 4-6 is every bit as good as that of the tigers in their premiership seasons. As is our top 10. They won those flags becuase of their system. And complete buy in to the system and preparedness by every player to play their assigned role. It is worth noting that in 2017, 2019 and 2020, at the end of the home and away the tigers finished 3rd (15-7), 3rd (16-6) and 3rd (12-4-1). Which is unsurprising given their ballistic model, like ours, is all but impossible to keep at the level week in week out. Which by the by is something they never tied to do. Their run to he flags started each year from about now We absolutely have the team to win the flag this year.

We have the players to run off half back, that's not an issue. But our lack of overlap run and dare was super evident on Saturday. I know Goody said we are doing any extra training loads but frankly I don't believe him. We are not running out our games the way we were in the first 10 games or so, we are not playing with anywhere near the same intensity, our defensive running has been off for 3 weeks and we have lost our overlap run. All that points to a team that is physically tired. And perhaps mentally tired too, but i reckon that's less the issue. An issue for us is how many young players we have in the team and it is totally normally for young players to be flagging at this stage of the season. So that's part of it no doubt. But you make an excellent point about the TOG percentages, with the young'uns getting a lot of bench time and the senior players conversely up around the 90% plus range. But any extra loads on top will impact the senior players and younger players. Our game, like Richmond. is super taxing - physically and mentally. The system is completely dependent on huge physical effort. And when that drops off, for whatever reason, we come well and truly back to he pack. And we have major Achilles heel that is exposed when drop off our physical aspect - our kicking is woeful. We are mid table at best in terms of kicking skills across the board. It is important to put our losses into perspective. We have kept oppositions to low enough scores and our average losing margin is only 9 points. But in each of those losses, our terrible foot skills has been a huge factors. The obvious ones are missed shots on goal, but more frustrating is the terrible missed passes inside 50. So many wasted chances where all that was required was a basic 30 meter kick to a free target. And tracc has been worst offender All teams have to bring their effort and will pay if they don't. But the dogs, cats and lions sneak wins because even when off they an rely on a handful of key players to kick difficult shots and nail both easy and hard passes inside 50. The Cats stayed in their game against ess in the first quarter becuase of their elite kicks. The dogs were just paddling agianst the roos but players like MCrae, Bont and Bailey Dale did both the basics and difficult well So, we have poor kicks. And i reckon we are fatigued. And nothing exacerbates poor technique like fatigue. We won't win the flag unless we are physically ready to go and cheery ripe come finals. And it would make sense to build that base now, even if that risks losing some games we might otherwise win. I'm increasingly convinced that is what is going on.

This was always a query i had about jack - ie how he connects with his teammates, and his singular focus But I've changed my view on the importance of that stuff - and now actually think that that singular focus is important. Every player brings their own thing and jacks one track focus, and will for the contest brings its own energy.

Agree. I have swung on Jack and after being guilty of underestimating his importance, think he is super important to us. But I thought he had a better game against the bombers and looked more mobile too. Our mids were well beaten and viney and harmes were both poor, which put us behind the eight ball for the whole day. And not just poor offensively, poor defensively, which meant that too many of the clearances GWS won were clean and unpressured. I went to the game, which was both terrific and rubbish, in equal measure. I use binoculars at games and one of the things i like to do is zero in on the players and coaches at breaks, and when the game has come to a stop, to get a sense of their body language. After half time, the players came out and got into their obligatory huddle and listened to Max rev them up. Watching Viney, i noticed for quite a bit of it he was looking away absently. Now, that in of itself is no hanging office - each player has their own thing i guess. That said, it is a pet hate of mine in junior sport (kids not looking at the coach when they are being addressed). So i watched Viney for a while after the huddle broke and he looked disgruntled, for want of a better word. Certainly wasn't animated and seemed to be stretching out his leg. A few players came across to him and he just seemed flat. I might well be reading too much into it, but that is exactly how he played in the second half.

Has a running summary too

Learn something new everyday! Muchos gracias

It was me jjc. You might be right and hibbo might get the job on greene. He has been good against players like Martin and papley. I just think greene almost plays as a big, and out of the square too. And May is strong enough and he is best close to goal, rather up too high. Petty can take Himmelberg. And even though finlayson is tall, he plays almost as a high half forward (like tmac) and I reckon hibbo can take him with Lever coming across for support.

I reckon it was. I was there that day and saw that group. Had to laugh. Until we lost.

Is that a euphuism?

Only if they knew

Maybe 1000 MFC members tickets? Makes no sense that 25k can go this week, but only 1000 next week (unless they know an impending outbreak!)

Crowd is capped at 50% https://www.afl.com.au/news/640225/get-your-r16-tix-be-part-of-something-special-be-there-live And 25k can go https://www.adelaideoval.com.au/news/25000-crowd-capacity-confirmed-for-saturday/

She'll be apples then

What? There goes my trip to Adelaide! Maybe. For the life of me i wasn't been able to find any info about crowds at the footy in Adelaide (as i was planning on going). Not on the SA gov website or on multiple news sites Eventually checked the Adelaide oval website. The crows lions game this weekend is capped at 25k. No changes to restrictions today, so who knows how many will be able to go next Thursday.

Thanks TU So not many intercepts marks then and really good spread of dees players marking inside our 50. Out of interest where di you find the stats.