binman

It was really similar, in the sense that it was near the boundary and Libba just stopped in his tracks - good get. I don't recall his ability to feint, evade and have so much time being highlighted as his assets when drafted, and i dont recall seeing him display those skills that often in the VFL games. I wonder if he is the sort of player that is better the higher level he goes to because the pace of the game is so much faster and suit his natural skills, for example because there's more super high pressure situations where elite evasive skills and instinctive quick thinking is required more often.

1. Shrinkage? - it's not that cold..... 2. An age old question - I'm sure your customised ads are now promoting enhancment pumps and salves

He was not a million miles off being back to his best against the blues. Watching the game live i thought how important he is to our side and how that importance is easy to overlook, in part because he is not partic flashy and as you suggest a lot of his great work is off the ball. The other thing i forget sometimes is how tough he is. Doesn't lose too many one on ones and has good dose of aggro.

Yes. But my gut feeling is that it is more likely it was after the Port game. Either way i think we have set ourselves for the Pies game and will be running on top of the ground. I really hope i'm right.

The clip doesn't show my favorite bit of play from the Judster against the blues. He had the ball right on the boundary line, feinted and everyone around him seemed to just stop, perhaps thinking the ball had gone over the boundary line - which i exactly what i thought had happened watching live. It was weird - normally players with the sort of natural time the judster has is the one who appears to be standing still, but in this instance, it was everyone else who stopped! (I think the bit of play i'm talking about is actually the very first clip of the Judster in that video - and if so, is cut off right before the good bit)

That suspension still makes me furious. Four weeks was ridiculous. By that metric De Goey should go to jail Chandlers suspension last year was equally frustrating.

You don't want to be playing your best footy in June. Grand finals are not won in winter. They are really looking for the bye. You can't expect a young player like Daicos to be up all season. Yes, they lost and their defense was porous, but don't you love how they don't go into their shell and stick to their game plan. I know they lost, but geez don't you love watching them play. I know they lost, but i can't see the dees beating them with Sidebottom and De goey back in the team. Yada Yada Yada

Yep, the weekly contender or pretender litmus test. I'm not sure if you read this, but i posted the following earlier in this thread: Scott basically said the media narrative, and refusal to see the macro picture is a load of hogwash in his post-match presser this week ....... I can't find the clip, but on the Sunday ABC radio footy show, the Lead, they played those comments from Scott and came back and said Scott had 'pierced the fourth wall' and called out the games the footy media play. The comments they played from Scott are 9:28 to 11:41 of this clip: Full post-match, R12: Cats (afl.com.au)

I saw that. And i agree with them. It is really hard to take David King seriously because he seems not to remember anything he has said in previous weeks and constantly contradics himself. (That, and the fact that in his 'rolling ladder' he has Freo (a team he relentlessly bagged last year) in 4th and us outside the top 4. Go figure - given the ladder says we are actually in at the halfway point of the year and Freo are not.) It's a shame because some f the stuff he talks about is terrific, particularly when he is using footage to make a particular point such as the example you note.

Yep, all reasonable points. And i think your conclusion that fatigue is a factor but not to the same extent as my hypothesis suggests is completely reasonable too. Which touches on one of the central planks of my argument - the media would have you believe it is not an issue and so rarely, if ever factor into their analysis of specific matches, meaning many fans don't either. If you accept that fatigue plays a role in performance, the logical next question is how big a role. You and i have come down in different places on that answer, which is great - at least it is being factored into both our analysis of say our performance against the blues. I just love that we are talking about this nuance, not ignoring it. But if someone trying to get their head around our performance against the blues doesn't factor it in (it's an excuse!) it's not possible for them to properly assess the performance (because they are ignoring a key factor) and so are more likely to default to the dees simply are not that good, we will be hammered by a decent side, good teams would have won that game by 6 goals given how poor the blues were etc etc Exhibit A of the above scenario is the half time 'analysis' of the blues game on Fox. I went to the game, was thrilled we won, loved our defensive work, was happy with individual performances and loved our improved work when the ball hit the deck in D50. I also watched the game expecting a low skilled, scrappy game with lots of skill execution errors - because of the impact of accumulative fatigue (and maybe loading). And so, i was not at all surprised that is exactly what i saw - the performance and game met my expectations. And i walked away from the G a happy man knowing we are 8-4 at the halfway point in the season with a terrific percentage and not too many injury concerns. I watched the replay last night. Normally i would skip the half time discussion but happened to listen to it this time. I thought i was living in alternate reality such was the vitriol directed towards the dees. Lyon, Brown, Buckley and Lewis did not mention fatigue once, or factor it in at all (which was weird because even BT pointed out in the call that the players looked like 'they had led in their shoes' and Buckley was a senior AFL coach two years ago). And as result their analysis was just plain wrong. Woeful to be honest. But a dees fan who isn't as obsessive and inside baseball as me might have listened to that half time discussion and come away thinking we are doomed and have no chance of beating the almighty Pies next week, let alone winning a flag.

It does indeed- as I point out in my screed.

Show is tommorow night dee

I'll try again. If you paid an umpire say 120k a year, with bonuses, there would be heaps of young talented people who would see that as legitimate and attractive career pathway and career - particularly given you could umpire into your 40s. I would have as a young fella who would have loved nothing more than to be involved full time in footy but had no chance of doing so by playing. My son would too. I have worked in the community service sector all my adult life and there ain't many jobs paying 120k. So, I disagree you would have to pay them as much as players are paid.

Must have. Will reread.

Really good point. Particularly relevant for players like Chandler, jvr and mcvee who haven’t experienced anything like they will on kings birthday. And I wonder if the dees want to flex and bring the pies down a peg or two.

Preamble: https://demonland.com/profile/6059-binman/ Hypothesis about the arc of the season Act one: https://demonland.com/profile/6059-binman/

I think that is a very reasonable question about the strategic advantage of targeting the King’s Birthday match. I wondered the same thing. I'm hoping it's a target game as much as anything. But the 9 day run in gives me hope they'll use that time to taper.

Well, you wouldn't necessarily get accountants and physiotherapists - except for the nonprofessional roles (realistically three full time professional per game may not be financially viable, so you'd still need the highly skilled amateurs - who by the way i think get paid pretty well for every game they officiate). But accountants and physiotherapists aren't the only people with the skills set to be excellent umpires. My son was pretty handy junior basketballer. But was never going to make it at the elite level. So, he went down the refereeing path and jumped up through the grades pretty quickly. He had a mentor from Basketball Australia, who invest significant resources into this area, who had been a FIBA ref at the Olympics and world championships and really encouraged him to think about the opportunities refereeing provided (international travel, NBL and the big one - professional NBL ref). My son ultimately decided to stop reffing, which was unfortunate as he became an excellent ref, in large part because of the training and pathways BA provided. Anyone who has been at high stakes basketball game at any decent level knows how crazy and intense the pressure is. The best refs thrive in this environment - but only with the right support and training. My son is never going to be an accountant or physiotherapist, but if he stayed the course, he would have become an excellent ref. If there was a path to become full time professional AFL umpire he may well have pursued that option. As would many young people - if you love sport and want to be involved at the highest level why not make umpiring a career?

No we don't. And we have a triangle defense structure with a goalkeeper defender as on of its points, where they have almost flat line defense that pushes up as one - but can be exposed out the back on turnover. But our optimal game plan still heavily relies on wave running and multiple players running ahead of the ball to provide options.

You say excuses, i say factors - potato; potatoe. But don't worry i won't be flogging that particular horse tomorrow night. Much. But if you need some prophylactic pre pod protection, then you can get the full technicolor binman impact of fatigue thesis here

100% agree and i think this is perhaps their biggest vulnerability. In some ways this is similar to the dog's vulnerability in 2021 and 2022 (i think they have addressed it better this year) where they relied on handball chains out from the contest and then in transition. Each handball is link in the chain that is at risk of breaking under pressure. The pies also use handballs to chain out from contests. The difference is they are more looking to get it to one of their elite kicks in space than keeping the handball chains going (which they'll still do if necessary). And then their elite kick takes on high risk, high reward kicks that, when they come off, set up gilt edged scoring opportunities. That kick is a critical part of their method, but even for the best kick super intense pressure make them much harder to make. And for all the, justifiable, talk of the pies' brilliant last quarters, skill and exciting method, the fact remains they went two losses, one win in last year's finals, losing to the Cats and Swans in high pressure games - and turning the ball over in key moments in both games. Sidebottom out is huge i think because he is one of their four truly elite kicks (Daicos x 2, Sidebottom and Pendles). De Goey is huge out because of his power, ability to tun the game and his brilliance at stoppages and in the contest. But he is also an excellent field kick, so that's two better than average kicks out of their side, which will make their high-risk kicking game all the more susceptible to pressure.

Thanks SD. That is not low-quality speculation at all. Very relevant to the discussion. And to be honest its exactly why i started this thread - to have some more nuanced conversations about the game we all love. Your comments are interesting, and touch on something that i find really curious - footy fans have been conditioned by the media to disregard what coaches say (lying is the first language of footy and all that 1980s rubbish) - particularly if they contradict the micro focus and weekly contender or pretender narrative the media love to play each week. Goody has been at pains to point out that everything is about being ready to go come finals. That we are planning for finals success. Why is this point disregarded? An even better example of how the media frames things to prime its audience to believe a particular narrative is the weird repetition the Dees have scoring issues. This has become so accepted that King could say, with all sincerity, on First Crack last night that (paraphrasing) everyone knows the Dees are struggling with scoring, and neither cohost said a peep to push back. Why would they push back? Because it is a complete load of cobblers as evidenced by a pretty significant bit of irrefutable data - up till this round we had scored more points than any team in the competition (the cats have now edged us by 17 points - but despite having won three less games than the supposedly rampant scoring machine in the pies we have still scored more points than them) - a point Goody has also made on multiple occasions. We are at the halfway point in the season. Given the fatcs, how is it possible for the dees have a scoring issues narrative to hold any credence, let alone become the dominant narrative? Scott basically said the media narrative, and refusal to see the macro picture is a load of hogwash in his post-match presser this week. There are plenty of other examples. Yet collectively the media, and therefore footy fans (generalizing) ignore these messages from senior coaches. I can't find the clip, but on the Sunday ABC radio footy show, the Lead, they played those comments from Scott and came back and said Scott had 'pierced the fourth wall' and called out the games the footy media play. The comments they played from Scott are 9:28 to 11:41 of this clip: Full post-match, R12: Cats (afl.com.au)

The VFL is a lot lower intensity than the AFL, so not the same impact physically.

Yes, i guess it could be manipulated. But sacrificing one of your players to force one of theirs off is a massive risk. And the doctors are not going to lie about a players injury status. Again, it would all come down to getting the rules and framework right. Which to be honest is probably the best argument against it - the AFL have woeful track record of getting the rules and framework right

Act two of the season Act two of the season is rounds 11-12, through the bye and up to aprox round 16. And as important as the first two months are in terms of laying our fitness foundation, you could argue this period is almost as important in terms of giving the contenders the best chance of winning a flag. As I noted in the Act one of the season post, Selwyn Griffiths said on the DL interview that in season games only provide 70% of the capacity to maintain aerobic levels and between games it is not really possible to build aerobic capacity. And said that to be in optimal shape come finals they need to use the bye period to do a heavy block of aerobic and power conditioning, but also give players time off to physically and mentally recharge. So, lots to juggle and consider. He didn’t mention fatigue in this context but said an impact of this increased training load is a greater risk of injury in games. Logic suggests extra running and weights sessions will also cause fatigue (as is the case in the preseason), which will impact our performance in games (in much the same way accumulative fatigue does). I hesitate to call this a loading phase because it became so emotive on DL last year and in 2021 and 2022. And to be perfectly honest I can’t be bothered relitigating the debate (that said, to be clear, i have never suggested fatigue is an excuse for poor performance, but rather a factor, a reason - one of many factors that can impact performance, but a very important one and one that is almost uniformly overlooked in the media). But for anyone reading this who has not participated in the great loading debate, Selwyn Griffith explains the process here (and there are hundreds of posts on the topic last year and in 2021): 15:45 mins to 19:30: Selwyn discusses the full year’s training program 19:30 to 21:48: Selwyn discusses the impact of accumulative fatigue, and the phase where they are increasing loads etc From his comments there is no question they do a block of heavy training at this point in the season. The question is how long it goes for. He doesn’t directly answer that question, though references the round 12-15 period. Which makes sense given the goal for the real contenders is to be cherry ripe in mid-September (round 16 is usually early July). My take from these comments, and pretty extensive research in previous years, is that it is about a three-week period they go extra hard. There's no question it had a significant impact on our performance in a block of aprox 3-4 rounds in the last two seasons because of the related fatigue (ie they do additional running and power sessions on top of recovering from games). In 2021, in round 13 we got rolled by the then lowly Pies in a listless performance (we scored 63 points), had our bye, only beat the lowly bombers by 11 points in another scrappy performance (scoring 68 points), got rolled by the Giants on the G, only managing 55 points on a dry day, went to Port and played great to win (scoring 86 points) but then drew with Hawks (79 points) and got beaten in round 19 by the dogs, scoring only 65 points. From that point we didn’t lose another game for the season, averaging aprox 108 points a game, inclusive of our three finals wins. Last season, we lost in rounds 11, 12 and 13, only breaking 60 points once when the Swans beat us 76-61. Then after our bye we scored 16.21 117 and poleaxed the Lions by 61 points in round 15. The pattern has started to repeat itself so far this year, with a loss to Freo in round 11 and a scrappy, low quality match against the blues (but thankfully a win). By the by, on the blues game, if you are someone who thinks hibbo is best 22 (as I am), then the logical extension of him being managed is that they did not give the team the best chance of winning this game. This is what I mean by prioritising winning the war not the battles, which Goody has touched on multiple times when he talks about the goal being in our best shape and playing our best footy come finals. Again, this is not a scenario limited to Melbourne. Burgess took the tigers' fitness template, added his philosophy and then others have followed – most notably Geelong last year. Given how running based the Pies are, they are almost certainly following a similar regime. Why? Because they can’t win a flag if they are not as fit as they were in the first third of the season come grand final day – or as fit as us for that matter (it’s worth nothing Sanderson has said a number of times the Pies are the fittest side atm by some margin – hard to prove, but their ability to run out games is used as the key evidence. We have lost only two final quarters for the year, so by that logic we must be pretty fit too). As previously noted, I make a distinction between flag contenders and non-contenders. I assume non contenders would still follow a similar training program, but their focus is on making finals, not winning a flag. So they might not go quite as hard around the bye as they can less afford to lose games because of fatigue. And they need to peak at the start of September, not the end. You don’t need to be sport scientist to see the impact of fatigue on performance. Just watch any game in the last two rounds and you can clearly see its impact. In round 11, top 8 teams in the Lions, Dees, Dogs, Cats and Saints all lost to teams well below them on the ladder and the pies gave up six last quarter goals to the roos to only win by 6 goals after leading by nearly 10 goals. There have been less anomalous results in round 12, but the quality of the games and skill execution was uniformly very poor. And the dogs and Crows (where Burgess now works) both got out to big leads before completely running out of gas and getting easily rolled. Leaving aside how the games looked, there are tonnes of AFL wide metrics that evidence the impact of accumative faitgue on perfomance. So, the timing of the heavy training block will have a big impact on which games we are most impacted by fatigue in, and which games we might therefore be at risk of losing going in as favourite. The big question then is when does the heavy training block commence for us this year? There are some variables that are worth factoring in when considering that question: Our training program has changed quite a bit this year, and it appears we are following the Cats lead in terms of managing players, using more players through the middle, using more players full stop, and key players spending more time on the bench than in 2021 and 2022 There is an extra round this year Selwyn talked about how tough the first half of our season was in terms of the challenges of travel combined with multiple short breaks between games For the second year in a row, we essentially don't get a bye because we only have 9 days between the pies game and our post bye game (by way of comparison, most other teams get a full two-week break, meaning players can get away from the club and there is still time for a good block of heavy training without worrying too much about the impact on the post bye match) Griffith noted these factors made planning when to do additional blocks of training a real challenge – and I wonder if the timing of breaks means they have to split the 3-week block of heavy training into smaller blocks of say 7-9 days But he also noted that post bye, it is a better fixture in terms of travel and breaks between the games It is also an easier run home than last year, which as was the case for the Cats last year, means greater opportunity to manage players (if the cats had as many must win, finals like, high pressure games as us in the last 5 or 6 games of last season they would not have had the luxury of managing players) So, back to the key question - when does the heavy training block commence for us this year? Short answer is I don’t know. But my best guess is that it started after the Freo game, which just about marries up with the aprox rounds 12-15 window SG talked about. I fully admit this guess is influenced by the hope that we plan to be in the best possible shape for the Kings' birthday game, which we weren’t last season. But I think this year the stakes, and timing, are different. This is one battle that will help us win the war. And it is also one of the most eagerly anticipated game in years. I'm hoping we want to do everything we can to win (like resting Hibbo against the blues). That said, even factoring in yet another six-day break, I think the blues game provided pretty good evidence of a team that was fatigued beyond accumulative fatigue – ie they went hard on the track in the lead up. For the first time all season we played tempo footy and looked to control the momentum and speed of the game just as we so often did in 2021 and in the first half of 2022. Great way to conserve energy. And it was by far our lowest pressure ratings for the season, and we went into cruise mode in the last q (keeping in mind 180 is considered league average and 200 elite pressure – dees in first column): Q1: 179 - 195 Q2: 172 - 161 Q3: 179 - 166 Q4: 148 - 153 Tot: 170 - 170 So, we train hard in the lead up to the blues and go hard for the first half of this week? And then taper into the Kings Birthday game. We have our bye, players have a 3 or 4 day break and then go hard again in the lead up to the Cats game – which of course we want to win but are prepared to risk losing because of fatigue (if I’m right we will see a the same sort of scrappy, low quality game as we did at aprox the same time as our game against the cats at taxpayer park last season). We then have a nine day break ahead of our round 16 Alice Spring game against the Giants, so we do our last heavy training block (resulting in another scrappy game) to get our aerobic and power closer to the optimal level as we roll into the third act of the season, rounds 16 to 24.