binman

Good questions - to which I will respond (assuming Andy asks me!)

Yep, very much so. I've been pondering the reason for the significant change to the way we normally play since the dogs game. My theories revolved around Goody looking to add another layer to our method because: we were looking to take advantage of our predictability (by being unpredictable) goody has said a number of times that tactics evolve in season the quick ball movement method of the pies and the swans was proving effective other teams had found ways to mitigate our strengths and expose our weakness the changes would increase our chances of winning the flag But to be honest I didn't apply Occam's razor to the conundrum, perhaps because my confidence in winning the flag was predicated on the training program having us in optimal shape to attack the finals If i had applied Occam's razor, whilst the above dot points all might have some validity, i would have arrived at the more logical conclusion as to why we went out so hard to get a match winning lead and then look to hang on - goody, who of course has access to all the injury and fitness related data and metrics, knew we were too banged up/lacking in fitness to play 4 quarters.

Great post. The game plan and method we came into to the finals with was significantly different to that used in 2021 and the first half of 2022. The last third of the season really only the freo game 'looked' like a Melbourne game. I suspect that change was equal part a response to what the opposition were doing better (both in terms of negating us and their model) and mitigation against our issues. We played much more aggressively, particularly in first halves and as you suggest leaked goals as a result. In simple terms, the approach seemed to be get a big enough lead by half time and then hang on for dear life. I reckon the biggest change was that we stopped using tempo control.

Spot on. Everything flows from there.

I'm confident we will win this game. Not as confident as i was last week, or for the round 23 game. But confident nonetheless. If we win, I'm confident we will beat the cats too. That said, i feel sick in the guts at the thought of the season ending tonight (and i worry the players might too - which is one reason I'm not as confident about tonight as i was for the round 23 game)

You might be right. But i was thinking they might drop him, not for form related reasons, but because we so obviously need a second a tall forward and if Tmac is not ready, Weed is not even in the frame, they don't want to try JVR then Smith is the only other option.

Smith in for melksham is my guess as the only change.

They are nor mutually exclusive.

There's a specific form that needs to be completed when making an apology to you? A touch beauracratic I would have thought.

Better than a Pagan Fagan moment!

I am more concerned we lose this match than i was before round 23. I reckon now that they have won a final they'll view this match, on our home deck and at long odds to win, as a free hit and play more relaxed. And I feel like we are under more pressure.

That makes more sense. To the eye the swans were on top in the post clearance cps - a stat that is one of kpis. Almost as if the Swans focus is on winning those contests as opposed to winning g cps at the stoppage

Ta. I half expected that the pies and swans might have had more post clearance cps. It reinforces in my mind that the swans and pies are both doing something different.

Well done cats.

Does anyone know the post clearance contested possession numbers for our game and the pies cats game?

All good points. I predicted a damp squib for these finals, with the lions tigers game being the only close one. Could not have been more wrong. The pressure the swans and pies brought is almost like a new style. I mean pressure is fundamental to finals footy obviously, but the pressure both teams bring to disrupt exit from stoppages is something different. Curiously both teams had significantly less contested possessions than their opponents - the swans minus 25 and pies minus 21. On our sytem, I can't get my head around why we have changed it so much. I had expected us to go hard and fast against the swans, which we did. We didn't get ant score board seperation in the first half, so cam out and played fast in the third. But we never tried to control the tempo, which is a key part of our system. Well, it used to be. Yes, that was in large part due to the smart way the swans stopped us doing so, for example by tagging langdon and Salem (who we use a lot to control tempo) and denying us time and space. But we also fed into the pace of the game by going for high risk kicks into the corridor. Made more high risk by gawn and may trying them - and giving up three goals in doing so. So weird for us to be play such high risk, high reward footy. And we paid the price we normally make other teams pay. I don't know what the numbers were at games end, but at half time I think I saw on the scoreboard we had scored maybe one goal from turnover and they had scored 4 or 5. Such a perplexing game tactically. Yes, a big part of that was the great tactical work by the swans, but nonetheless we contributed to the tactical weirdness.

It looked terrible live. Poor bugger was in absolute agony. On the slo mo replay tou could almost see it happen. I hate to see players get injured like that.

I reckon maxy was also carrying.g something. I was in the Olympic stand and at one point in, I think, the third, maxy was running directly toward me as the ball headed to the boundar line. His running action was so awkward and said to my mate that he had done his hammy. He obviously hadn't, because he stayed on, but something was not right with his movement.

Sure, but trac gave us zero run

Maybe. But he was heavily limping for ages. I watched him for while with my binos and he can barely move at one point. Surely there's a point at which the coach over rules the player?

Seriously? He was moving like a cripple in the second half. I was gob smacked, and remain so, that Goody didn't bring Smith on for him. I mean, what the point of having a medi sub if you don't use it when needed? We were basically down a player for a big chunk of the match. We really needed the run Smith and energy would have contributed. Totally baffling.

I thought it was gastro?

Agree with all of the baove. But i'd add that the biggest stuff up was lynch bot splitting the center with that kick. I mean that was total gimme.

Jordon must recover quickly from surgery

That is approximately how i think the game will go - i've predicted a 47 point win. No, its not last year. We are better this year. Delusional? Nup. Or if it is, there are a lot of punters who share the delusion, given bookies are only offering for $4.25 for a 40 point plus win. That price is about right i reckon, given we are a far better team and close finals, particularly in the first week of finals, are quite uncommon - in part because once a game is decided (ie one team has an unassailable lead), the losing team often folds in elimination finals as the realization hits they are finished for the year, or in the case of Qualifying finals they conserve energy for their semi. By way of example, the margins in the finals last year were: QF 2 - Dees hammered the lions by 33 QF 1 - Port hammered cats by 43 points EF1 - the dogs smashed the bombers by 49 points (after scores were all but level at half time) EF2 - the one close game, with the giants beating the swans by a point Semi 1 - Cats beat giants by 38 Semi 2 - dogs beat the lions in a thriller by a point PF 1 - Dees [censored] the cats by 73 points PF 2 - dogs smash port by 71 points GF - Dees smash dogs by 74 points So, nine finals with only two close games and seven hidings.