binman

We'll see. I'm pretty confident he's get his chance. And sooner rather than later.

My dream of Joel Smith dominating up forward in the ones is a step closer to reality!

Oath

quote not edit

New evidence has come to light and after careful review of this information binman finds binman NOT out of line with the crack about there being zero chance of Mr Charles Spargo not getting selected if fit. The first piece evidence comes from a press conference with the Melbourne Football Club senior coach, Simon Goodwin on Tuesday 10 May 2023 that clearly indicates Mr Charles Spargo's non selection in the round seven game against the God Coast Suns WAS in fact fitness related. From 5:58 in the video below: In response to a question about Mr Charles Spargo being in the twos and concussion, Simon Goodwin says: ‘He basically had two weeks out of the game, coming back from concussion we know at times that can be quite challenging. And having two weeks out we wanted to make sure he was 100% right. We brought him back via the VFL, he played incredibly well. He’s an important player for us’. The second piece of evidence is that the Melbourne Football Club has formally advised the AFL that Mr Charles Spargo has been selected to play in the round nine AFL football match against Hawthorn Football Club scheduled for 13 May 2023. Binman advises binman can continue to make posts on the Demonland football fan forum that there is zero chance of Mr Charles Spargo not being selected in any given game IF fit. https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/1326954/rd-9-media-conference-simon-goodwin?videoId=1326954&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1683677380001

No rooo from all of us. RUUUUUIN! from me.

He has never been reported in either junior or senior football before this.

Of course, happy to play them under the current system But my point is that current sytem is rubbish. Play each team once, alternating home game. Then work out some system to get the additional games for the broadcast deal.

No you're right. Good call. My wife is German and has long since given up correcting people mispronouncing her (very easy to pronounce) name. So i understand how annoying it must be. Mine is dead easy - hard to get binman wrong. Correct pronunciation it is. On the podcast that is. Not at the footy.

So, we can expect there to be a six oppo players suspended every week for missing the ball and instead smashing Max in the back of the head in a marking contest. Really, such utter rubbish.

All good points. For mine, it’s not really a situation of where they play Petty this week. However, we will need our best talls to cover Marshall, Dixon and Finlayson and personally I’d like to see him go back to defence by the Port game. That said that may not be an option now, with the result of the tribunal. But let’s say we win an appeal and JVR plays AND they do move Petty back this week. He replaces Turner down back. Hibbo is good to go, so he comes back in and slots into a defensive rotation with Mcvee, Rivers, Bowey and Gus – none of whom who need to come out. Turner comes our for hibbo then And then there is Spargo. Seemed a good game on paper in the magoos. The bye in the VFL complicates things but I think he plays against Port. And perhaps tgis week too. if so, someone else has to come out. And unfortunately for JJ that might mean he is the sub, pushing Harmes to Casey. But I suspect they might manage some players this week – maybe one or two of runners like Nibbler, Langdon or Hunter. Maybe give Steve may a break before wrestling Dixon the following week. One of these outs creates a spot for Spargs. The question for me is more what the ideal back six week looks like come the back half of the season. And for mine that is Petty, Lever, May, Rivers, Bowey, McVee and Salem (with apologies to Hibbo). Where that leaves Gus I’m not sure, but he is basically a utility who can push back and do some chop out time as a mid and wing. As for our ground ball worries, Salem will help a lot if he is in good nick. And let's hope he is - he's a top 10 player when right. Salem also means Goody can use Mcvee in lock down defensive roles on the medium forwards we struggle with. He is a real competitor. And smart one on one too. Moving forward i hope they target a player to trade in for that role. Who? I've got no idea. I know he's not on the market, but Isaac Quaynor is the sort of player i am thinking of. I'm hoping Deakyn Smith might be able to develop into that sort of player.

He didn't bloody hit him in the head FFS!

Disengage filter.

It's no surprise the dees and the saints are at the top of the scores from turnovers table. Goody and Lyon share the same footy DNA - defence, pressure, contest, forward half footy. Eight rounds is a pretty good sample size so the Saints on top of the turnover table with a 193 differential (14 from us in second) is impressive. As notable though is the fact we are 78 points ahead of the Lions in third and clear on top of the total for scores from turnovers with 512, with Brisbane next on 483. Less impressive for the saints and Lyon's method is being down in 12th for diff scores from stoppages with negative seven. We look good by contrast - 4th differential (42) and 4th total for (305). The Suns are interesting. Sixth in scores from stoppages - and directly above some pretty good clearance teams in Blues, Tigers and Bulldogs. But way down in 15th for scores from turnovers, above only Roos, Eagles and the Hawks. That aint gonna cut it.

I’m no statistician, but top 4 in all three of those categories is statistically impressive!

7. He clearly tried, and largely succeeded, to minimise the impact and avoid putting Ballard into next week. Exercised exemplary duty of care. No mean feat at all given the speed and direction (ie with the flight of the ball) he was travelling.

Totally reasonable suggestion. But on JVR, i know the proper pronunciation is Van- roy – en, but at the footy I yell out Vannnn RUIN !!!!! (very loudly) because I love his attack on the ball and Ruin sounds more battle like (and is easier to yell). And it also makes me think of a Melbourne band from back in the day that I really liked – Blue Ruin So, sorry Jacob (which coincidentally is my son’s name – if I yelled that out it would inevitably be in my ‘you’re in trouble’ voice) if you are reading this Vannnn Ruin it is. I don’t have any excuses for mispronouncing Tracc’s name. Hell, I’m happy if I remember Sparrow is not a Swallow.

That's true. Sort of. By that i mean we don't set up at clearances to maximise the chances of winning them per se (which we would if the goal was simply to get more clearances than the opposition). We set up at clearances to maximise the chances of scoring when we do win them (and minimising the likliehood of the oppo scoring when they win them). Maxy sort of touches on this dynamaic in this interview (cant remember when, but must be in the first few mins coz i stopped listening after that - marty sheargold is like fingers on chalk board!): https://omny.fm/shows/marty-sheargold-show/max-gawn-on-how-tasmania-will-go-getting-players-h

Apparently they do some probability calculation for every shot at goal, including ones that miss all together. To arrive at that figure they factor in things like how much pressure the player is under when kicking, the angle, i think conditions and i might be imagining this bit, the players record from that spot (i assume for both in play and set shots). And then they aggregate all shots to arrive at the expected score. So I'm guessing despite us having more scoring shots that they missed easier ones (thankfully including Macphersons')?

Indeed. It really is all about post clearance contested possession - i have heard Hardwick say many times it is tigers' most important stat. Which is yet another frustration of mine - post clearance possession data is not publicly available - yet another critical stat locked up by The Champion data monopoly. And both offensive AND defensive post clearance contested possession equally important to our game. In fact, arguably defensive ones are even more important. Lose the clearance and when on we put enough pressure on the oppo to force them to hack kick forward which makes it very difficult for them to score because they struggle to hit a target or kick to the forward's advantage. And it therefore makes a contested ball scenario very likely. We are very good at winning post clearance contested possessions, and if we do it becomes a turnover. Our game is based on scoring from turnover and when on we are brutally efficient at doing so. Trac said as much in his post-match on ground interview (i think it was that one). So, they win the clearance, go forward, but don't score. We win the post clearance contest and score on turnover. In the abstract, if we stop them scoring a goal and we in turn score one ourselves, that is a 12 point swing. All of which helps explain why, according to Champion data, teams are statistically twice as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance.

In that clip about Rivers, the very last shot is him sitting down for the post match coach talk. I know he must have been exhausted etc having just finished a taxing game of footy, but he looks pale as ghost too. That's the first of those electrifying moments clips i've seen that includes comments from a coach (i haven't watched any this season, so perhaps it's now a thing). I thought that was interesting as was mentioning rivers being crook (which i very much doubt he would have if we lost - exuses and all that) and that he almost word for word echoed Goody's post match comments about how proud they were of the players My read is the club was subtly flagging to fans there was some illness in the camp and that we too should be very proud of the team's performance.

And the talk is at least four players were crook (fritter beng one of them, chandler too). And this is not just gossip - Chaplin makes the point that Rivers was exceptional, particularly given he was crook, in this video: https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/1324887/rd-8-jaguar-electrifying-performance?videoId=1324887&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1683423127001

It's interesting actually. Scoring from turnover is key to our game plan and how we score - it is for most teams. Daniel Hoyle from Champion data said on SEN earlier this week (and has made this point a number of times) that teams are TWICE as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance, yet clearance numbers get a lot more attention. Apparently, the Pies were the best, or close to it, for scores from turnovers last year. And are 18th this season. Hoyle made this point on SEN and the refrain from Gerard Healy and Kane Cornes was that was a scary stat because the Pies were still winning, and it showed how much upside and improvement they have. That's one take. Another is they are not applying enough pressure and it is a major red flag. It's almost certainly a factor in their struggles to score. And why, despite having one more win, they have 17% less percentage than us. After blitzing in rounds one and two (125 v cats and 135 v port) they have failed to break 100 points in the subsequent six rounds, averaging a paltry 73 points a game. In that same period we averaged 112 points - though to be fair that includes games games against the Eagles and the roos.

Stongly disagreee with all these points.

Yeah Derwayne's beloved footy gods were soooooo upset Chol was not paid a free that they engineered a shank kick out of a pack that landed in the arms of unmarked Sun's player 35 metres out slight angle. Despite the magnanimity of the footy gods, King reckoned that every day of the week you'd rather Chol have got the free than Macpherson get that mark because Chol 'kicks goals for a living' and Bollocks. Total bollocks. Chol would have been kicking from about 45 metres on an angle. Macpeherson, who by the way is 26 goals 24 points over his career (so better than 50% - not as good as Chols' but no butcher), was 35 metres out slight angle. There is no way Chol was a higher probability to kick that goal. If you (not you MR - the royal you) disagree - a thought experiment. Imagine Van Ruin is paid the free. He knows how much time is on the clock. He is at the top of his run up some 60 metres from goal. And would you believe Gus is all by himself without an oppo player anywhere near him, 35 metres out on a slight angle. Easy kick to hit him. He knows he has time to do so. Would you expect JVR to pass it to Gus?