DEE fence

Good news everyone, I found my crystal ball and you can take out a second mortgage and put the house on my predictions. No seriously I was reading the Death Riding thread, and I thought it would be fun to predict other teams likely to fall from the 8. (This also supposes teams below them improve, not a given). For mine, the top 4 will all be in the 8 next year, I genuinely believe we have recruited well and our forward craft will improve. We survived our 'tall poppy' year of media sniping the coach and board room shenanigans (thanks so much ex prez). Geelong from the top 4 is closest to dropping out of top 4, but not going to hold my breath, I think they rely on Tom Stewart, the same way Salem is integral for the Dee's distribution off HB. I think we can now cover Salem going down better than they can cope with the loss of Stewart, I just don't think the Cats bat as deep as we do, and will be susceptible to injuries after such a brilliant '22 campaign (yes I feel dirty typing that), but they are brilliantly coached (Scott demonstrated his willingness to throw away his game plan and change everything in a single off season (and did what we did with the wings) and have a beautiful game, MFC v GFC will be one the heavy weight games next season. People picking Collingwood to fall because they 'tin ar$ed' some close finishes are dreaming, brilliant run, unified team, the Daicos's play like they have a PS5 cheat code, excellent defense and transition, smart coach, and on the other side of that salary cap debacle. They do need Sidebottom to have a good season though now Pendlebury and Grundy have left. I do think however that Grawny will monster them and we'll do them over with better conversion. Swans are not going anywhere unless the sky falls on Horse (and I hope it doesn't). Anyway this is about who is going to fall from Heaven... Richmond to fall like Lucifer, the media narrative around Dusty is not sustained by facts, he has had some devastating injuries, Messi, who just had the world's best Indian summer has never had the damage Dusty has, he might be fit, but he has a catalogue of soft tissue injuries that are going to cruel him the way Wayne Carey fell off, the instincts/skill will be there but the execution will fail. And even with adding Hopper and Taranto (they recruit well) I see defensive gaps, Grimes is not properly fit and nothing in Grimes pre season suggests he is going to come back as the gun defender he has been. I don't see the defensive ability that they had during their premiership years. Also teams that are not in contention for the 8 or on the border of it will all take more games from the top 8 teams this year, much shorter gap between the haves and have nots. Fremantle my second tip to drop from the 8, though they don't really inspire great emotion in anyone except in their supporters do they? As @Binman wrote in the death riding thread, Jackson just doesn't seem to make the sense he would to other sides with what they (Freo) had already, and what he brings, he's not kicking 50. They have the worst attack and I think are undersized for repeat finals campaigns. They rely on the brilliant, brave, Brayshaw too much, he's become a bit of Cripps, everyone jumps on his back. Fyfe who I adore, is not going to become a 40 goal player either, If I take my rose-coloured glasses off, I don't see the explosiveness into space that he will need with the leg injuries he has had. Would love to be wrong about Fyfe, through no fault of his own he has not had the career I had hoped he would have. I expect early wins from Freo but by the bye falling away. Lions despite their really good attack, I think this club has a leadership vacuum on field that will affect 2023, not just because Zorko is a nong I don't like, but because I don't get the impression that his team mates like him that much either. When I look at the last 20 years of premiers, the Captains really stand out, would you put Zorko next to a Gawn, Cotchin, Hurn, Mitchell, Hodge, Maxwell, Voss, even Murphy, you get my drift. Of those to replace Zorko, Harris's record as a clutch player is not there, Lachie is a gun without a doubt, but not a leader and when he's tagged out of a game, doesn't compensate. Dunkley might be a good choice for 2024 though. Anyway 2023 is their '2019', I am predicting Brissey to have one down year, with some pressure on the coach but I think 2024 will be a much better year for them. They have recruited really well and will 'surprise' everyone with a 2024 when Ashcroft and Fletcher have a big impact. They are 3rd team i see as a good chance to miss. The Dogs ... I know some folks think Beveridge has lost the plot, about to lose the plot or is otherwise NQR, but I see a team that has addressed some structural deficiencies very well with it's recruiting. Liam Jones will do wonders for the Dogs, If I was a Carlton fan I would be bleeding. Jones more than covers for Easton Woods. They have experience coping with the departure of key players, they recruit well, the big unknown is which Libba turns up, he needs to be on, if his mindset is not right they won't match the other gun midfields, but on balance I see the dogs more likely to stay up than the other 3 teams highlighted. The contenders I am bullish on the Suns if they get a fair crack with injury. Power, a good draw, some good recruits, not too many injuries like last year, they are not as bad a team as the form of 2022 suggests. I think Hinkley has good support although his game day stuff could improve. Never going to be premiers but 8-5 is their natural range. I suppose I have to say Carlton is a prospect, on paper they look good and I think Voss will fix the stuff between the ears. Not really interested in writing why they are good they just annoy me so much. My top 8 - (not attached to finishing position) Melbourne Geelong Cats Sydney Swans Collingwood Western Bulldogs Carlton Port Adelaide Gold Coast Suns The Ladder - Bold are my locks for the 8, italics are the sliders. 1 Geelong Cats 22 72 144.2 18 4 0 2146 1488 2 Melbourne 22 64 130.5 16 6 0 1936 1483 3 Sydney Swans 22 64 127.9 16 6 0 2067 1616 4 Collingwood 22 64 104.3 16 6 0 1839 1763 5 Fremantle 22 62 117 15 6 1 1739 1486 6 Brisbane Lions 22 60 119.3 15 7 0 2147 1799 7 Richmond 22 54 121.6 13 8 1 2165 1780 8 Western Bulldogs 22 48 108.9 12 10 0 1973 1812 9 Carlton 22 48 108.3 12 10 0 1857 1714 10 St Kilda 22 44 99.3 11 11 0 1703 1715 11 Port Adelaide 22 40 110.3 10 12 0 1806 1638 12 Gold Coast Suns 22 40 102.8 10 12 0 1871 1820 13 Hawthorn 22 32 89.8 8 14 0 1787 1991 14 Adelaide Crows 22 32 86.7 8 14 0 1721 1986 15 Essendon 22 28 83.2 7 15 0 1737 2087 16 GWS Giants 22 24 84.6 6 16 0 1631 1927 17 WC Eagles 22 8 59.8 2 20 0 1429 2389 18 Nth Melbourne 22 8 55.8 2 20 0 1337 2397 2397

I'm in this camp as well, I was so excited to have him at the club and felt like he was getting to a good place. He was always going to be in the last gasp saloon, I did think Goodwin's comments about his fitness/endurance was the most damning thing, not the breach of covid curfew. He was never going to be a guy that handled lockdown well. I truly wish him well.

Was about to ban you from attending training.

She said it on AFL360 with Gil present, I remember, no myth, true dinks.

You mean this Angus Brayshaw yeah? https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxVCZUdL9bCzVZPPkoL9rznnA026zPSvtT

It is is tier 1 no doubt, furious agreement 👌

5 goals in the prelim and r23 matches have him #1 for me. I also (as stated elsewhere) think he pays a 'Gawn' tax from the umps that is worth 3-4 possessions a game, for just being too bloody good. I don't remember Cox or Sandilands (who was basically a bikie who played footy) ever getting the rough end of the pineapple so regularly. Lastly Gawn is an outstanding Captain, has been super interesting to me to see that you don't have to be the smartest (not saying he is thick either, probably unique would be fairest thing to say) guy in the room, just the most upstanding, to be a great leader. Miles ahead of the other two. Gawn is in the conversation like a Hodge, Maxwell or Selwood, maybe just behind a Voss or Buckley.

Cameos only from Kozzie as a mid, he is a player that discombulates opposition defences, i.e. we force oppositions to play on our terms more with him in the fwd half. As a mid he is just another good player where we bat deep already. Save him for when our mids are having an off day and we need to mix it up. Aaron Davey was also an elite kick, on a par with TJ (I'm biased), when we didn't have alot of elite kicks and we were actually ok for forwards.

One word you wrote sums it up perfectly infuriating , a ball player getting scragged and will finish before his time, simply because he's too good. You articulated the whole point better although I would hope non dee supporters who love the game would also call this out. The guy is not an Ent last season was probably the most difficult to watch apart from the Port Adelaide game from a few years back which was just BS.

Re Gawn, I am so sick of all the cheap shots he wears, he gets enough in a fair ruck contest, and I know I'm reaching here, but it reminds me of the way Pele and Maradona got hacked. While I fully endorse the fairer cleaner version of the game where coward punches and elbows have become relics, but I think there is still a need for a enforcer type role where the hurt is put on players who take deliberate cheap shots at Gawn, who at the end of the day has always been a ball player. Something akin to a corkie that stops the sniping player being able to run with him, wishful thinking I guess, but the umpiring of Gawn has been a travesty the last 3 years.

Yes been meaning to sign up and finally did, would love to have a yarn in a pub with this bloke.

For 10 years was a goto running shoe, but then found addidas ultraboost, never Nike or anything narrow.

@Neil Crompton Boland, has to be, he's like a HIMARS unit at the moment but better and it's his home test.

The rest of the world should be thankful that Football is not our primary game, otherwise I reckon we'd win 1 in 3...

I lived in Fulham Broadway, and the first time I left my flat during a Chelsea home game I thought someone had invaded England, never seen so many riot police and and divvy vans with riot shields down, right outside my front door, was like the poll tax riots in Trafalgar square.

Back when I was VICPOL the NSL was still a thing, I remember for one game in South Melbourne with 10,000 fans we had 200 police and close to 200 detained/arrested, dogs/horses and it looked like a WEF demonstration, the next week I worked the football for a ~80,000 crowd with beer flowing and i think we had 8 arrested for being drunk (not sure if there were any assault charges associated) worked by between 16 and no more than 20 cops. This for me was the reality week to week policing. The trouble makers were some of the same crooks we had in Fitzroy 1FZ (or AFZ if you are a really old copper), showing up at the US embassy during the NATO air campaign in the former Yugoslavia throwing spring valley bottles full of petrol (as molotovs) at the US consulate in St Kilda Road, i.e. a very specific bunch of ratbags that have latched onto the game. They were dealt with in time (legally). Was the best decision to shut down the NSL and get rid of the European flag waving at the matches. Anyway the difference for me between the crowds was with footy it has been going for ever so to speak and the supporters are intergenerational and there is 'community pressure' on the young bucks to behave. The soccer didn't have it, was a very young, very male crowd with no sort of community handbrake attached, this is the drama. I notice the pitch invaders were all young entitled men (and a few idiots left over from the 90's). I went to the France-Morocco game here the other night, huge pro-Morocco crowd, being semi Arab and definitely African, I was one of four (two women/two men) French supporters (and the only one in a French shirt (one of my kids is half French what can I say-I was sledged mercilessly by that half during the group games). And was slightly nervous about what that would look like in a crowd of 100's. Could not have been more friendly, despite the enthusiastic and very loud support for Morocco, I could not have been treated with more respect, with the most vocal fans coming up to chat, calling me Habibi etc(incl. those wearing Moroccan shirts). The other feature was plenty of young women and parents there following the game as well. I do feel sorry for the legitimate fans of Victory, but this is the moment the club has to take a stand. Or it will be shut down, just like the NSL was, as I can tell you politically this sort of violence is seen as super toxic and will be met with a very heavy hand. In other non AFL Melbourne sport stuff, HOW FANTASTIC IS THE SWIMMING, Emma is just such a gun. And blowing the jaarpies off the park in a couple of sessions has given me plenty to stir the pot with after a dismal Rugby Union tour.

A bunch on Incels were trolling their tatts on Twitter, really very frustrating to not be able to (verbally) remonstrate with them in person-the Incels that is. If we get to three flags in my lifetime I will get a serious tattoo, but have to get over a serious amount of angst and friction from the wing commander.

Have always laughed at other club's 'death riding' our picks, feel like it's tempting fate to do the same. Not sure any club has done well put of death riding. That said, top 5 please, would really burn Freo who have been a 'Bell' end to deal with.

I am in Addis, is 10pm start, we are putting in, look like we belong, they are quick though.

Anyone watching tonight, chance of a miracle? I have us at 10:1

I think he has been first class with his work for the Dees, and wanted to jump on here and express my gratitude for a job well done. Enjoyed his contribution to the Gus and Gawn podcast, his interviews, and his enthusiasm for his work. Probably one of his more onerous tasks has been to trawl this website, and if he does I am sorry for some of the drivel he has been exposed to. Am sure he knows we are generally nuts but love the club. (would love to know if he has ever posted). Anyway, thanks for all the content over the COVID era, and good luck in the future.

So according to hi Twitter feed, Ben Gibson is leaving. I think he has been first class with his work for the Dees, and wanted to jump on here and express my gratitude for a job well done. Enjoyed his contribution to the Gus and Gawn podcast, his interviews, and his enthusiasm for his work. Probably one of his more onerous tasks has been to trawl this website, and if he does I am sorry for some of the drivel he has been exposed to. Am sure he knows we are generally nuts but love the club. (would love to know if he has ever posted). Anyway, thanks for all the content over the COVID era, and good luck in the future.

So bloody jealous right now WWSW, big downside to my job, even when I’m home is too last minute to snag TKTS, although I was able to brag my way into the Prince one night many years ago as dirty humanitarian on shore leave.

95kg at 18 is extremely promising, is going to be one of the stronger rucks going around am willing to bet, no idea where he will be skill wise, but on video alone it seems his reflexes are ahead of the game, baby giraffe not appropriate, more preying mantis.. I really think JT has picked the eyes out of a draft considering our picks reflect where we sit on the ladder. Casey must be very short odds for B2B!

@Binman, thanks, I hadn't heard that and it makes perfect sense, quagmires (maybe a bit strong) never did scoring any good. AFL has a terrible record with grounds and as a Dees fan, truly think we get the rough end of the pineapple, I do wish we could be more Rory Breaker “If the milk turns out to be sour, I ain't the kinda [censored] to drink it.” BTW The more I hear from Roffey the more I like her, really think she is the leader the club needs to navigate the perils of a footy club. She's not Merkel yet but as far as building consensus seems to be well on the way.