Little Goffy

The guy who finished seventh in our best and fairest just signed on for three years, basically committing to finish his career with us. Impressions are that he is not on any grand amount of coin, either. He has given a glowing endorsement of the club, its new coaching group and the younger players coming through. We all know his main deficiency. Yet, so does he - I know that I’ve got a great relationship with my line coach, Jade Rawlings. Simon Goodwin has come in and he’s a great offensive coach, which I know I need to keep working on – in terms of that side of my game. http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2015-10-07/we-now-have-premiership-players-garland So exactly what is the point of the endless supply of hate-rants about him? Some people need to pack up their ego and poorly-handled emotions and move on.

Let's see, who are those kids and how are they doing now? I'll highlight in bold the players who had an immediate, dramatic improvement in form and games the moment they were at a new club... oh gee... Sam Docherty (Carlton); 19 games, 21 disposals, 6 marks per game, off half back. Jared Polec (Port Adelaide); injured this year, but in his first year away from Brisbane he immediately became a key member of Port's midfield, earning 5 brownlow votes. Elliott Yeo (West Coast); 24 games, ave 17 disposals, 5 marks, 3.5 tackles, kicked 18 goals. In fairness, it took a second year before really dramatic change. Patrick Karnezis (Collingwood); nup, still sucks. Billy Longer (St Kilda); 18 games, 9 disposals and 30 hitouts per game. Jack Crisp (Collingwood); 22 games, ave 22 disosals, 4.8 tackles, kicked 16 goals Looks like for all but one of those 'want-away mummies boys', leaving Brisbane made a dramatic and immediate difference to their football career. But of course, the trouble is that they are 'entitled millenial whingers'. They should see how much loyalty they owe Brisbane, for giving them terrible coaching, a disunited and ego-riddled club living on past glories, and the prospect of their dream falling in a heap before it even got started. If just one or two of these guys had suddenly turned things around, ok. But so many, so quickly? Even at Carlton? Y'know what, I've changed my mind, I think we should get in the hunt for all of Aish, Redden and Luenberger.

I don't hear anyone from the club fantasizing about how we are going to be the great powerhouse team and unstoppable with oh so much talent. I think that's a part of the urgency difference - 'now' matters. Five or six years ago everything was head in the clouds and set in a magical future where right now wasn't so important because everything would be fine once the draft picks accumulated, all they had to do was age.

Well, I'm really stoked by this news and really impressed by what Colin had to say about it all. Puts the sour, snarking lynch mobs on here into a bit of perspective.

My relationship history goes, Vietnam, China, Malaysia and Russia. But y'know what, after all that, I still can't speak Crazy. Also, Thomas Bugg looks like he'd be a handy pick-up to reliably fill a role at low cost.

Seems sensible to recruit 'cheap' players who are young, competant but not yet achieving great things. They are basically replacing draft pick 60+ (or Bail/McKenzie), and we will know much sooner whether they are going to deliver, while someone else has already paid the coaching and resources cost to get them through their first couple of pre-seasons. Obviously within limits. The hunt for serious quality through draft and trade must go on. But it also must be remember that modern sustained success examples like Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong did a lot more trade-based recruiting of quality players once the terms-of-trade had shifted in their favour by being able to offer success and a proven competent operation. Right now, we appeal to players trying to break into a team. In three years we'll be the club of choice for mature players looking to eject from sinking ships. I promise!

Howe isn't really a defender, isn't really a forward, and certainly isn't a midfielder at the moment. Personally I think he should be a dangerous tall midfielder, with the valuable bonuses of being able to take intercept marks as part of midfield defence or to drift forward and mess with match-up structures. I think his main limitation at the moment is his inability to grasp that he isn't 'there' yet at a player. He clearly believes, perhaps with an irresponsible manager whispering in his ear, that he is already a star of the game and Melbourne aren't 'appreciating' him enough and that's the only reason he doesn't do better. When the finger comes out, he could well be worth 650k a year, but right now it is hard to justify 400k.

The club's standards for what? Irony? "John Worsfold, on behalf of Essendon Football Club, wishes to inquire as to your seriousness about avoiding drugs".

Honestly, Howe and 25 for 16 sounds like an error in translation. Possibly Howe + 25 for 16 and freo's second pick, 35 Freo moves from 35 to 25. Gives up 16 and gains Howe. Melbourne gives up Howe, moves from 25 to 16, and gains 35.

This was harder than I expected, because after all, there have only been a handful of separate premiership 'squads' in the last decade. I decided the point was made by the time Steven Armstrong was added. B: B. Stratton, A. Johnson, HB: B. Guerra H. Lumumba C: HF: J. Simpkin, C. Dawes S. Byrnes F: R. Campbell, J. Podsiadly M. Morton Foll: T. West. Bench: L. Brown, N. Ablett, S. Armstrong And then, much to my surprise, this little exercise actually has some insight to it. Very clearly, there aren't any midfielders on this list. Despite going back over ten premiership teams, and having a large surplus of tall forwards, rucks, and small/medium forwards, there weren't even any HFF who I could slot into the midfield to make up space. The other area with very few 'ordinary role players' was defense. Guerra and Lumumba have had up and down careers but at their peak, during their premiership season, they were excellent players. It could easily be argued these two should be removed, and possible I only included Lumumba to make fun of people with 'gun only' lists. That leaves just a couple of weak players left in the whole defense. So there's the lesson - the areas that a team can most afford to have role-players are tall forwards, small forwards, and rucks. Defense and especially midfield you really should saturate with talent.

Well said. The Steven Armstrong Principle.

Nah, not in any big way, just a kinda nah. I'm just not inspired and feel like he has reached his level. **delete this post if he builds spectacularly in 2016, of course.

Would be good to put a little more distance between us and the pack. I mean, really, a couple of years from now all the current top teams will be mass-retiring and sliding down the ladder Geelong style, and the other 'rebuilders' all look stuck in a perpetual malaise Carlton/Brisbane style. It's really just us and the Bulldogs going toe to toe from about 2017 on.

Because there are 17 teams who would prefer that Hawthorn had to give up something for Frawley, instead of just being able to continuously load up on quality mature players at discount prices while also not having to trade for them. Seriously, they had pick 19 but were able to gazump the entire rest of the league to get Frawley. I wonder if West Coast or Freo or North or Richmond or Adelaide might have liked to have him on their list this finals series? In contrast, we'd be giving up as much as two first round picks to acquire the likes of Luke Parker, solely because he is a year short of becoming a free agent. As always, the AFL just completely fails to grasp nuances, side-effects or the whole idea of making things incremental to avoid 'moral hazard' situations. They are making the same mistakes with free agency that they made with the sub rule, the interchange stewards, and most of all the priority pick system. And gee didn't that end well. What really bugs me is that there isn't an issue in football that couldn't be set on a steady path to resolution, it would only take about three months of clear thinking at the top. Nnnrgh.

On the bright side, at least now nobody can try to give us cr4p about being overcompensated. Even as Brayshaw goes on to be an instrumental part of our rebuild and rise to finals, all that anyone can say will be 'gee, Melbourne drafted well', Frawley was great, but he will never be as important to Hawthorn as Brayshaw will be to us. Win win win for everyone. Except the Eagles, and who really cares about them?

Gibson, Lake and Frawley, what an incredible day for the Hawk's tall defenders. Between them - 70 disposals at 90%+ efficiency. 30 marks including 6 contested 25 1%ers Just one free kick given away. Only as an afterthought have I noticed all three were traded in, quite late in the building process.

Except 400k+ is not the average wage range, it's the top 25% of the list and top half of the best 22.

To get a club-by-club distribution, just divide by 18! under 100k = 5 100-200k = 11 200-300k = 8 300-400k = 7 400-500k = 4 >500k = 4 (figures rounded down) I'd say we are paying '1 pay band' over for Melksham, but that's what you have to do when you are trying to assemble a team. Another way to look at it is that in one hit we have replaced the entire depth contribution from the group of NQR we've already delisted, improving on that aspect while also opening a few extra list spots for draftees. Melksham + 2 draftees is both cheaper and better than Bail + McKenzie + Riley!

Our current 3rd tall defender options are basically Lynden Dunn and Colin Garland. Neither are especially great and neither are especially young (28 and 27). We've got almost no coverage for them and the likely loss of Howe also opens up a tall defender/utility role that Francis would likely fill to a much better standard anyway. In a draft that I'm mostly not excited about, Francis seems one of the more interesting and suitable options.

He seems an interesting character and an interesting, dynamic player. Combined with Howe's likely departure, If the article about Salem moving to the midfield has any real weight then adding Francis to the backline becomes more and more sensible. Would be a good match if he was still available at our first pick.

Take heart! It is still possible that Daniel Chick has kept the receipts. Eagles could win a premiership and be stripped of one in the same week. That would also make Roos a two-time premiership coach by default.

If the 4-year deal is heavily weighted to match payments rather than base salary, it would be a good insurance covering time suspended, while also offering Melksham some career certainty. As for trade value... I dislike giving up picks in that top 25 range for players who aren't likely to make a major difference. I've long believed that the most efficient draft approach is 'high-low'. Be involved in the hunt for top-end talent at one end, then shamelessly turnover experimental, speculative, mature-age and 'possible' players on short contracts at the other end. The middle of the draft is much less likely to get you a major player than the top end, while actually not being that much better than the bottom end better when it comes to accumulating role-players and stalwarts. Also worth noting the 'future picks' option and the fact that with a lot of retirements coming through they'll likely be going deep in drafts this year and next. But for us, we seem to do a lot of our list-filling with mature players, and after another likely major cull this year I think we'll be quieter for list turnover at the end of 2016. Would anyone else rather trade two third-round picks than one second rounder? Call it pick 43 (2015) and 47 (2016) vs pick 25 this year?

It is a strange piece of timing. I can't help wondering if Chick's comments are more directed at Worsfold and his impending appointment at Essendon, than anything to do with the Eagles. Maybe there are things he only really paused to recall this week, when people wanted to reminisce with him about Eagles in grand finals, or Worsfold as a coach. There's nothing for it, the Demons are just going to have to step up and win a bunch of preimerships, we can't risk them all ending up in the hands of creeps and b4stards.

I hate these soft, sooky gen-x-ers and millenials. I think they should reintroduce conscription, that'll teach a few of these kids about discipline and doing what you're told or else getting a humiliating sexualised beating in the night. (Provided for assistance in calibrating your sarcasm meters)

As a side note - Essendon are rooted. Quick comparison of 'definite' talent under the age of Jack Trengove (just turned 24) Melbourne Gawn, McDonald, Tyson, Viney, Hogan, Salem, Vandenberg, Petracca and Brayshaw Plus a whole host of maybes. Essendon Heppell, Merrett, Merrett, Daniher... Carlisle and Melksham Really only a couple of other possibles - Laverde? Gleeson? They were expelled from one draft, stuffed up a couple more, and tried to cover the gap with veterans like Cooney, Goddard and Chapman, which just clogged their list and slowed the much-needed turnover. Essendon 2015 = Melbourne 2007. Sure there will still be some quality players carrying through, but they will be overwhelmed much like the way Green, McDonald, Bruce and Robertson couldn't hold a team together with so little depth and such unreliable younger cohort. They've fallen off a cliff and really Melksham should pay us for the chance to get out.