Little Goffy

Personally, I'm willing to give Tom McDonald a couple more rounds to see if he can find his true self. There's the full variety of types of tall defender to match up on by the time you get through Essendon, Geelong and the Swans. None are a walk in the part (although the Swans don't seem to have the veteran height of the other two) but if by the end of that set McDonald isn't performing strong, not just adequately, then he should spend at least that amount of time off AFL level to rediscover form and/or take a good hard look at himself. So, short version, I'm in the 'give every realistic chance, but then seriously hold to account' group.

Might be a case of kicking to whoever is NOT near Hooker/Hurley. An interesting team rule. And whoever IS being marked by them can just go for a run. It's a bit like sharking the opposition ruck when you know they will win the taps!

The only way this thread could have become more chaotic would be if Jackson was dropped AND Weid wasn't brought in... oh... wait... For what it is worth, I do see a case for the 'taste' given to a very new player, so they have an idea of what is really expected at the level. Plus sometimes the kid responds to that environment and surges. But it has to be done carefully. Not sure I'd want LJ to spend a game being hammered around by a tag-team of Hurley and Hooker, for example. Who knows, maybe it was also decided that bringing in Weid with the certainty of being against one of those guys in his first game back would be unlikely to do much for his confidence, and that's why we decided to go for the magic kaleidoscope of medium forwards this week, just to see if we can mess with their system. Fingers crossed McDonald is up to the job this week. But hey, the guy has earned earned six brownlow votes and kicked 12 goals in his last five games, two of which he was the decisive matchwinner, so can't be ALL bad. (But don't look at how he went in round three against the Bombers last year) Is there anyone thinking about this set of problems who DOESN'T have a headache?

It'll be interesting to see if Essendon has the wisdom and humility to just accept that Bellchambers is so entirely outclassed in the ruck (as well as his usual being out-competed around the ground) that they should focus on sharking off Gawn. It actually makes it a curiosity to select Bellchambers at all, "We're playing on the assumption that this guy will be beaten all day, but he's in anyway." Heppell is now out, person to person with the exception of Viney our main midfielders now stand a full 5-10cm higher than the Bombers. Vanderberg in... Hannan in... Except for our FF line vs their FB line the height difference across the ground is astonishing.

I have to admit I've got some serious nerves about the sheer number of Essendons pacy shorties. But in the middle, with Petracca and Oliver being both taller and stronger, the only piece missing there is Viney playing a brutal game. 'Picking one someone your own size' isn't really a fair thing to say when Viney is involved. I'm wondering, with Heppell being their only tall true midfielder, would there be value in putting Brayshaw onto him as a tag. Compel Angus to work defensively to limit their most dangerous mid, and also draw him to the ball to hopefully pick up some touches. It will be strange seeing Hurley and Hooker at one end with Tom Mcdonald being their only full-time tall opponent, and May and Lever at the other end with only McKernan. It'll be a fascinating battle of the mid-sized forwards against taller defenders. In fact, strangely enough we've got +5cm on Essendon pretty much everywhere on the ground except their tall defenders against our mixed forwards. Maybe we should just drop the game plan and go one-to-one all around the ground play a giant session of kick-to-kick? Finishing the height theme - if anyone is wondering why so much hate for Bellchambers, remember that once upon a time he was going too be a big beast ruckman, the heir to Simon Madden or at least David Hille. But he has spent eight years 'about to break out' but hindered by injuries and now he's mysteriously gone form good prospect to over-30. As a match up, he's much less of a worry for Gawn than Pittonet turned out to be, because Pittonet made a good effort of running around and getting involved wherever he could, while Bellchambers will give the illusion of a ruck contest then struggle to keep up anywhere else. Realistically, expect Gawn to have a similar game to last week BUT also expect his direct opponent to not be so significant. (Full credit to young Pittonet, too, always good to see a player at a career cross-roads make an impression... and I can say by one point...)

Absolutely. I actually see the situation as one where with a bit of confidence and stability we could see many, most, even (gasp) all of those players lift back to their upper level performances, which would be an incredible near-unstoppable team. You just made me have a vision of the team of the second half of Daniher's time at the club, except without chronic injuries and individual fluctuations in form. Imagine if they had all been fit and in best form at the same time, even for one season. Even for the 'right' half of a season. I guess that's the story of the Dogs of 2016.

The persistent, maddening theme of the Melbourne Demons' list is the sheer number of players with huge gaps between their best and worst. So many have shown superb form in glimpses, strongs of good games, or even for whole seasons, but then not taking a next step or seriously dropping away. It has made me crazy enough to do a quick catalogue just to put it clearly in my mind so I stop thinking about it too much! Would be interested to hear other's thoughts on the topic, and which players they think will come out at the better or worse end of their range. Hibberd -It was just a couple of years ago he was a worthy all-Australian selection, providing great drive from defence and smart intercepting and support. 2019 saw frankly half the player of 2017. Jetta - Was finally making the transition from being spruiked as underappreciated to being actually appreciated as a great small defender, but an injury-ruined 2019 also seemed to drain the intensity and decisiveness that were his trademark. Melksham - The goal assist king, his 2018 contribution to setting up scores hasn't been beaten by any player since Cyril Rioli's 2011, and he chipped in 30+ goals of his own. One of the few players to keep plugging along respectably in 2019, he has been barely sighted this season. May - Seven marks a game and seven intercepts a game at his best. At his current output it'll take him two more games to reach that tally for either. He's been so uninvolved he hasn't even given away or received a single free kick in 2020! Vandenberg - It is a widely held opinion that Vandenberg brings something (a form of Schwerpunkt?) that lifts the team around him. Unfortunately for long periods he hasn't had a foot capable of lifting the Vandenberg around it. It is anyone's guess what we will see when he does become available. T McDonald - Another player who this season has produced, literally, not figuratively, half the numbers of his best season. Nil impact from a player who once clunked 134 marks, laid 50 tackles from CHF, provided chop-outs in the ruck AND kicked a superbly accurate 53.20 in a season. What the hell? Bennell - At least with the comeback man we can only see the upside. Could be crucial A-grade silk, but in nine seasons three have been injury interrupted and four simply wiped out. Hannan - His mid-2018 best was as exciting at Fritsch's late 2019. Didn't look anywhere near as creative and dangerous on the path back from injury in 2019. Has a lot of believers but hasn't been seen yet in 2020. Viney - absolute midfield gun bringing crucial hardness... or too slow with an unreliable thoughtless kick, keeping better players out of their best positions. And that difference of opinion has been held by people watching the same game! Thankfully the valuable Viney appears to be back in 2020 but the uncertainty lingers. Hunt - A mystery wrapped in an enigma tied together with a headband. If you took his first couple of seasons as a dashing flanker/wing with long runs and long kicks and compared them to his three-goal game almost entirely up forward against Carlton, you would not think even for a moment it was the same player. We don't even know if he was very good or just fortunate, he's that confusing. Petracca - I believe. 'Pre-body-transformation Petracca' was actually rivaling some of the most most lauded forwards-who-go-to-midfield such as De Goey. The New Improved Petracca is doing every thing he did before plus 30% more! In shortened quarters! For once we are talking about variability between good and a level of play that requires caps lock on to describe. Having said that, it is still a big difference and still a part of why Melbourne's 2020 destiny is so impossible to anticipate. Brayshaw - I want to believe. Where Petracca's numbers and impact have gone up 30% from his baseline, Brayshaw's numbers and impact have gone backwards by about the same amount since his impressive peak in 2018. Are we talking about a tough inside midfielder with outstanding capacity to think a step ahead without losing concentration on the moment he's in, or are we talking about a kind-of-adequate mid picked last being the 'real guns' and who is on the field mostly because the coach thinks Harmes can be worked into a really effective half-back? Neal-Bullen - a busy pest of a pressure forward and general runner who might not make perfect opportunities, but does make extra opportunities and helps disrupt the fast counter-attacks that mess with our game plan. Or, 1/4 of that and 3/4 of mostly ineffective running around, as seen against the Blues. Smith - It's hard to know what you'll get from someone who has been so damn unlucky with injury. Two quotes sum it up - "Pre-season bolter and Melbourne rookie defender Joel Smith will make his debut against St Kilda." and "Joel Smith may have only played 15 minutes in his debut match against St Kilda in round one, but..." Lever - Another where the numbers, taken generally, tell a fair story. Currently producing almost exactly half of what he did in his final season at the Crows. Coincidentally, he has also yet to play even half of any given season for the Demons. The upside is of course what a solid block of games could restore. Fristsch - His last eight or so games of 2019 were as good as any produced by a mid-sized forward in recent memory. Against Carlton he looked massive early and even after fading he still managed 6 shots on goal for the game... for 1.4 and one out on the full. Is he a top-5 player from his draft or is he an undersized and inaccurate full forward who flashes in and out of game? Weideman - has had just a couple of good games, including of course THAT final where he did as much as anyone could possibly expect of a very young tall forward. But those few games look like the icing on a cake made of [blank] with a base of [blank] - a fairly even split of ordinary and very ordinary. But if the 'super-Weid' is what emerges from the shutdown then our forward line is a whole different proposition. Then of course we've got all those kids who, naturally, could be a whole lot or very little. But SEVENTEEN players with really noticeable variability in their contribution is more than enough to drive anyone mad. Especially when so many of them the variability includes a low end that is questionably AFL standard.

Two years by the calendar, less than one by the number of rounds played. But taking the point, Petracca may have just played two games in a row that were better (more complete, at least) than any of his from last season. Meanwhile, here's a first 'curious stats' post for the season Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca stats comparison. It's actually a bit uncanny how many of their stats are similar or even identical. https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=4041&pid2=4166&fid1=S&fid2=S Also, our Clayton is definitely kicking it a bit more this season. Might be a little under the radar with Petracca getting all the attention, but he could be in for a mighty season.

I would bet Elegt is thinking of Carlton's long kicks down the wing. When the Blues were up, it was that extra 30-50m gained with retained disposal that turned all the pressure back onto us and gave Carlton the breathing space to not feel flustered by our pressure. I don't know how much that is a lack of the right personnel, but I expect it was very much a matter of inadequate run and, dare I say it, poor tactical responsiveness. I'm not a Goodwin basher, but letting Carlton keep doing that was a mistake that nearly cost us the game.

Relax, they were following Covid guidelines of keeping two arms lengths apart. On that basis Gawn couldn't fit in the room.

Stringer was present around the ground a bit more last season, but almost like a mirror of Petracca's times, 60/40 vs 40/60 forward/midfield. However, Petracca is thoroughly reinvented for 2020 and in the meantime, Stringer has had 16 disposals this season, only 7 of them have been effective, and 5 of those effective ones have been goals! More than half his marks have been inside 50, and incredibly, 15 of his 16 disposals have been either shots on goal or inside 50s! So Stringer is definitely a full-time forward now. Think of him as what we would have if Petracca never bothered to get fit

Both Essendon and Sydney spent a lot of time patiently working the ball across the flank looking for that next neat kick forward to open up. They also both looked easily rattled once those neat kicks weren't available. I think the dominance and harassment we displayed in the first quarter could be even more effective against either of these two teams. Also, Carlton's game relied on the quality vision and kicking of Simpson, Murphy, et al directed to their tall forwards on long leads to the wing to create connections. I don't think Essendon or Sydney can rely on the same connection quality on either count. But for all that, if I were a Melbourne coach I'd still spent this week sweating over how to handle Essendon's fleet of smalls and medium players up forward.

Would have been fun to see him do a couple of really decisive magical things, but he got through the game fine and maybe it is the best thing for the psychological 'journey' to not be turning up and having a blinder straight away. If anyone should have (and probably does have) their mind on the long road, it is Harley Bennell. If plays 10% more game time and is 10% more effective over each of the next three rounds, we'll be laughing.

So, I've been watching a fair bit of football over the weekend, and I've got GWS/North running in the background now. Honestly, there's been weird results and disjointed performances all over the place. What if Carlton were actually pretty good? I mean, once they found their range, the long kicks and leads on the wings were pretty well organised. Meanwhile, we managed to turn on the most dominant single quarter of football for the whole round. I dunno, in the light of day, I'm far from thinking the sky is falling in. It'll take weeks for a real pattern to emerge to performances whether that is individual or team. Several of our allegedly better players had pretty poor days, but right now our ledger stands 1/1 in round 2.

This is true, but there were also multiple goals given away because our defenders either all went for the same contest (several times I saw three go up, and the record I saw was five at one, it made me dizzy) and nobody was on hand to deal with the spill. I think our whole system of defense gets disordered without O.Mac because both May (a smart, roving, bold CHB) and Lever (a prolific intercepting third tall defender) are being shuffled into more directly accountable roles that don't suit them quite as well, and they end up second guessing. If we had Oscar out there, not only would the 'up vs down at the contest' decisions have been that little bit clearer, but we also would have had Lever and May both much more free to read the play and cut off or split some of the numerous marks at HF and wing that McGovern, Casboult and McKay did take. So, structurally, by allowing other players to play to their strengths, Oscar's presence could have profoundly change the momentum of the game. And it would be completely invisible because the change would take the form of someone else taking a saving mark 50m away, or someone else knowing that predictable dour ol' Oscar will definitely go the spoil so I'll be ready to protect the spill out the back or collect and rebound from the front. Both May and Lever had pretty poor days. Lever with just 3 marks and May with... none. There's a reason we were continuously under the pump when Carlton lifted - we just had no moments of clean control of the ball in defense. Hence the series of wobbly rebounds and inability to make the crucial counter-attack goals that regain momentum. The other defenders on our list are also intercept-leaning rather than close-checking (Hibberd, Smith) or simply small, or just very young. You don't need a star at fullback, but you do need a fullback at fullback.

I'm going to say it. We really missed O'Mac.

Shades of the big surge mid 2018. All about sustaining it.

Until the crowds are actually allowed back in (even by the 1/4 rule), I would argue for authenticity's sake the fake crowd noise should be replaced by forum-pose notification beeps. Bennell kicks a goal 'bloit, bloit, bloit, bloit, bloit, bloit'. Would provide a very easy-to-follow baseline for your formulas, too. Just need to do a bit of coding to separate 'self-flagellation' as a data point unrelated to BBO, and you've got yourself a tracking algorithm.

Not too upset about ANB coming in, if he does his job and helps lock down on some of Carlton's rebound from defence. Will still be missing Pickett though. Seems to me we have an enormous amount of mid sized running players going out there today. On the one hand that worries me with players pushed to roles that aren't their best (eg. The Harmes at hbf controversy), on the other hand we should have the legs to sustain two-way effort all game. I also feel like we've got a much better depth of 'players of interest', players who can individually have a real inpact on the game. Pittonet may be 'strong and aggressive' but he's got little chance of physically disrupting Gawn on his own, when Gawn is so much fitter yet still stronger. In general, the blue's physical strength drops away dramatically in every part of the ground after just a couple of beasts. Cripps then Curnow then ??? in the midfield. Their defence looks like a great place for a young, agile tall with great reaction instincts like LJ because they won't be able to monster him and they don't collectively have the agility to keep up with his enthuastic puppy approach to loose balls. I'll be watching closely for what may become the Jackson trademark up forward - splitting a contest then grabbing his own crumbs. Big chance for the Demons to do something noteworthy today. (Mfcss kicks in.... now)

Even before Jeff raised his diseased perineum into the wind again this week, there were few non-MFC things in football I enjoyed more than Hawthorn losing by ten goals plus.

He should be careful what he wishes for, Hawthorn are on the edge of an age cliff the likes of which hasn't been seen since Demons 2007. Then again, maybe that's why he is saying three years. If he can see to it that some clubs are killed off soon, the Hawks can feed on the carcasses.

I did, even though I like Spargo and haven't given up on him. My MFCSS had already kicked in and assumed player 2 was Bennell. That emotional ride would have been too much. In fact, I had developed second-stage MFCSS within five minutes, imagining Bennell being devastated to miss his 're-debut', going out drinking, and doing his calf trying to run from a booze bus. Totally implausible, pure MFCSS at its finest.

I did find it interesting that the small/medium forwards and 'zippy' players of both sides had a bit of a rough night. Rioli, Pickett, Castagna, Higgins, Lambert and Bolton for Richmond had varying levels of individual influence but were mostly pretty insignificant considering that is almost a third of the team. Josh Thomas and Jamie Elliott were minimal for Collingwood, though Callum Brown at least got involved in some scoring. Also notable, more than half of Collingwood's players laid one or no tackles. Shortened game and all, but yikes. Final gut feeling - at least for a couple of rounds there will be a serious gap between the main contributors and the less diligent and mentally prepared players. Getting the most out of the 'weaker half' of the 22 could be a very big deal until people remember the rhythms of playing. Leaders and highly motivated players will matter a lot. There could also be some monstrous early blow-outs whenever a team clicks into full gear and the opponent is still mentally running around their back yard.

Waleed Aly has to maintain a difficult balance. I find it fascinating how he manages to routinely irritate 'conservatives' while never quite really, really angering them, and also keep himself within the protective embrace of 'progressives' while never quite being really loved by them. Students of intersectionality could have a field day examining the complexity of Muslim, amateur rocker, Australian, host of a news-related evening light chat show, upper middle class Richmond supporter. And that might not seem like a relevant comment in a Lumumba thread, but actually it speaks volumes of the balancing act that Lumumba eventually didn't manage to sustain. On the other hand, he did manage a decade of high performance at Collingwood before the relationship really broke down. It's not as if he was psychologically unable to pull his head in and focus on football.

You missed 'John Farnham comeback tour' and 'iSnack 3.0'.