Fat Tony

We lost the free kick count 11-25 as well and that would not be in the expected score.

The squiggle currently has us winning by 5 points. It aggregates all the models’ tips. The squiggle has our defensive rating higher than any previous premier in the system but below St Kilda in 2009.

They didn't "stretch" us really with only 6 marks inside 50. (We had 9.) Melbourne had 24 shots to WBD 21 but Melbourne kicked 9.8 to WBD 13.4 (excluding touched/rushed). The free kicks were 11-25. Our defence let goals over the back which was poor and we were badly beaten in stoppages 31-37 despite winning the hit outs 67-18.

Assuming May plays, I can't see us changing the 22. Our bottom few players all played well enough. Hibberd for Smith might be something they consider but having two players with hamstring issues is a risk. Hibberd was ok against the Cats and he makes sense to play on Weightman. Bowey played a very good game and will keep Hunt out of the starting 22. Spargo was excellent. Sparrow has become a lock in the last few weeks with three strong games. TMac looked to move really well again. I could see him ripping apart the Grand Final. He will also be good insurance if we get an injury to a tall. Rivers had a poor game but is able to play tall and small and we won't want to make a change to the side. Jordon was OK as sub and found a bit of the ball. If Hunt is fit I would probably bring him in as sub to replace Jordon. I think he is more dynamic and with May questionable it would be worth having another defender who knows the system if he goes down. The sub will almost definitely be used and I could see Hunt's pace breaking the game open in the last quarter, which is something we might need if we fall behind.

When’s the podcast this week? I’m going to need to hear Binman’s overconfidence to calm the nerves.

Does that change with the new sub rule? If you take 14 days you are likely to re-injure it but it might be considered a risk worth taking in a GF.

Can’t wait to see I’m play in a grand final. He will seriously hurt. Hopefully he causes the whole opposition team to cry by the end of the game in two weeks.

Probably now is the time to tell you all about the tunnel I’ve dug across the Nullarbor. The tunnel starts in my bedroom and is hidden behind a Raquel Welch poster. My wife doesn’t know.

I might have a heart attack if we win with a last minute goal again.

In the next 15 days we can send the Cats into a rebuild and end our curse. Carpe diem Demons!

Listening to Pert on SEN he did not confirm it was a strain but it sounds like Smith will miss. Hibberd is the man for the role and we have good depth in this area.

He has earned his money at Brisbane in 3 seasons.

I think we will go with either Smith or Hibberd to play as the deepest small defender. Who plays the main stopper role with a small defence of Bowey, Salem, Hunt and Rivers? I expect Hunt will come in for Bowey this week or next (fingers crossed).

Richardson also intimated that Bowey was the most likely at risk if Hunt plays.

Bloody exciting vision. Looks like the King twins. Thanks Dazzle!

Didn’t the Cats give Freo a hiding this season?

Our best is THE best. We just need to put it together on the night. Centre clearances and conversation are the main concerns but the rest of our game (pressure, game plan, zone, speed, fitness) is better and we are rested.

I will preface my comments by saying that I watch Freo less than most other teams and Cerra is not a player that really stands out. IMO Cerra is a good young player but he is not particularly tough or quick. He will obviously improve as he gains strength but I doubt he will ever by elite. Cerra also looks like he plays best as a centre square midfielder rather than a forward or winger. With Petracca and Oliver as the core of our midfield and Viney, Harmes, Sparrow and Jordon as other midfielders, I am not sure he would make us much better in there. Particularly given key roles of the other midfielders are blocking and pressure rather than winning first possession in the clearances. There has been some comments that Cerra would be a better winger than Brayshaw. Cerra may be more natural there, but I am not sure he would make us better though and Brayshaw has runs on the board. We have developed a game plan to play with one attacking side (covered by Langdon) and one defensive side (covered by Brayshaw). While this game plan has has been developed to protect our weaknesses (only one true winger) it also caters to our strengths (making the opposition have to go through Gawn, Jackson, Lever and May or try a risky kick in the corridor which gives us the chance to counterattack). I think adding a more dynamic winger would be a bit redundant unless we change the way we move the ball and defend (which we should not be doing given the success this year).

Let's be honest, the best result would be a big donnybrook in the semi final.

Rivers should never have gone into the corridor. It was a low percentage play given our entire midfield was in the forward half and they had an open 50. It was completely against the game plan. We have not gone inboard like that all season. You either take the tackle or feed it towards the boundary.

Rivers could have turned and given to Lever behind him. Taking the ball into the corridor was a massive blue. Smith got a bit lost between defending and attacking but the goal was mostly Rivers fault.

So no blame on Rivers just putting it on Cameron’s chest?

This shot was before Rivers even had the ball and made the crucial error. It was a scrubby kick and Smith came to the contest. Rivers won the ball after it hit the deck and coughed it up to Cameron. Once he got the break, Usain Bolt could have been playing on him and it still would have been a Cameron goal. Pretty important omission from your initial analysis of Cameron’s goals and criticism of Smith.

The second goal was a bad turnover by Rivers where he handed it to Cameron and Smith was spreading from the contest.

We certainly had a great brand of footy to watch in 2000.