Fat Tony

Does anyone know the Expected Score yesterday? It always feels great when we kick straight but there is always an element of luck. We had 33 shots from 60 inside 50s compared to Sydney 29 shots from 52 inside 50s.

Petty might be a better defender than forward and full back might be his best position in the long term. But we are in 'win now' mode and we need to experiment to know what our best side looks like in September. Jefferson is a 2024/25 prospect and JVR is only 19. They may or may not be ready in September 2023. The only key forwards to have kicked 40+ goals for MFC in the last decade were Hogan (2x) and TMac. Fritsch (2x), Pickett (2x) and Garlett are the only other players to have topped 40 goals.

TMac was one of the best at Casey, along with Tomlinson and Howes.

It is hard to make changes after that win but Kossie has to come back in. To fit him in, I would probably give Melksham a full game at Casey and give one of our smaller/mid size forwards a turn as sub. (i.e. Spargo, Chandler, Jordon, Sparrow or ANB). The other options change the balance of the side and I think the balance is right at the moment. If Hibberd is not fit, the options would be to include Tomlinson or to swing Petty back. But I would prefer to give Petty at least one more game up forward to see if the experiment can work. (I have been advocating for Petty forward and I thought he was ok yesterday without being a smashing success.) If Brown needs a spell (which I think would be a good idea even if he can get up for the match) we could just play a smaller forward line with Kossie. But, as I said, I would not be that keen on changing the mix of smalls and talls and so I would probably prefer to bring back TMac.

It’s happening I reckon.

Howes looks fantastic at VFL level and will be an very good player. But he looks like he needs to get fitter and stronger. I would like to see a bit more intensity in the contest as well.

Is Laurie the emergency sub?

Beautiful goal! He needs a bit of gym work though.

Ex Freo and GWS?

You can take the boy out of the city, but you can never take the city out of the boy!

From the great interview, while Griffiths confirmed that the players' loads do include extra endurance sessions at periods during the season, it seems that most of the additional sessions occur when the breaks between games are longer. Griffiths could have been cagey on providing too much information about this but I did not get the impression that loading can be used as an excuse for a lull in the middle of the year.

Big call to be trading down from #1 if Harley Reid is on a Petracca/Dusty level. While we can dream, I doubt Freo will be that bad. The other thing to think about is where Kynan Brown falls on the draft board? If he has a great year and rises in the pecking order, we will be forced to concentrate our draft capital/taking one of the top players, trading our pick out for an established player or pushing picks into 2024.

With Gawn out and May returning, Goodwin has a few things to consider. Tomlinson has been pretty good this year and Petty has been a bit down compared to previous seasons. One option I think we should consider is throwing Petty forward. JVR could also come into the side to replace the out of form TMac, although this role would also include part time rucking.

With Max out injured for a stint on the side lines, it will be interesting how we adjust our game plan. In the clearances, I expect to see Grundy take a lot of balls out of the ruck contests and our midfielders to be a bit more defensive. I expect we will go with JVR this week as our second ruck because he should provide a bit more energy around the ball than TMac can. (TMac's place in the side is also under pressure due to form.) Around the ground, our defence will need to stand up without Max's marking and we will need to be a bit quicker to transition defensively without the ball. Going forward, we will likely look to spread the ball a bit more, kicking to Petty or Petracca on the open side. (This tactic has worked well this year.) In a post game interview, Petracca said he felt we played a bit safe with the ball. I don't think that is right and we actually transitioned the ball ok. We were just belted in the clearances (centre clearances and in our defence).

Didn’t think you could make the hawthorn jumper look uglier but I was wrong.

It is now up on the AFL site. The Gawn news was uncertain but the tone was not that encouraging.

Is there much difference between scenarios 2 & 3 in terms of how the opponent is set up defensively?

I think we sought to kick harder, flatter and straighter inside 50 on several slow/congested entries in the Richmond practice match. I think we hardly did that at all last year. I also think we have also been looking to try and enter our 50 from a position closer to the corridor this year. Instead of kicking to the pocket from 15m inside the wing boundary, we are looking to kick from 30-40m inside the boundary. This gives us more angles to work with on entry and gives us a bit more cover if we turn it over or they rebound quickly. I think a lot of the uncontested marks against the Dogs were a function of the way we looked to exit our defence. The Dogs lack of defensive system meant we could attack through the middle on occasion, which helped us find uncontested marks inside 50. But, our method did also result in a few very bad and uncharacteristic turnovers (Oliver and Petty kicks as examples).

Not being a lock in a defence that includes May, Lever, Petty, Salem, Rivers and Brayshaw is hardly a reason for delisting. David Astbury played in 24 games in five years from 2011-2015 and then played in three flags.

I wonder if the sub on Friday night will play 2 games (assuming they only play limited AFL minutes).

Gawn, Petracca and Oliver are all flying at the moment and we are 39.5 wins and 12.5 losses in our last 52 matches. The Lions are a tough ask at the Gabba but we are great on the road. We should be confident that our best will beat any team except maybe Geelong.

This is one for Werridee.

Laurie had only 17 AFL fantasy points against the Dogs and 14 against the Tigers in the practice game. There is no way he is currently in our best side.

I’m hoping we pick our best side in a game which could decide our ladder position come finals.

Laurie should go out regardless of how many of the four injured stars are returning. Jordon and Melksham are miles ahead.