Fat Tony

TMac is moving extremely well. He might not play on Friday night but I think he will play AFL finals now.

Will Casey pick it’s best 22+1? Or will MFC listed players get preference? Could any Melbourne players not get selected?

It should be able to be streamed on the vfl website.

Can we forgo the Spargo as the third/relief winger experiment? Brayshaw would be a better option. Salem for Bowey will be the only change.

Freo don't have a top 5 pick. While they could trade up for a higher pick, we will lose value to achieve this. Gold Coast fought tooth and nail to get a top 10 pick from Hawthorn for O'Meara and St Kilda did a great trade for them in order to broker the deal. Conversely, the Cats took a number of lower picks from WCE for Kelly, which, in aggregate, added up to more than pick 1 in value and was a better deal. I would prefer we take a collection of lower picks and let our brains trust work out how to push up or down the draft board. Brokerage is expensive in the AFL system.

This system is fairer but it means we effectively have 2 sets of finals and a lot of dead rubbers. We also cannot release the full fixture until round 17 is done. If I was running the AFL, I would actually go the other way and look to maximise revenue while creating as fair a draw as possible. This means more double up games between Victorian clubs. For interstate clubs, they should play double ups against each other, including 3 local derbies each year. This would mean less unnecessary travel and that fans could attend more games. The double up games should look to promote relative equality in the draw, with each team playing an even number of high and low clubs. (They should look to equalise the competition through draft and salary cap rather than the draw.)

We were unlucky that our bottom 6 double up was Collingwood and our middle 6 double up was Freo.

Jackson or Oliver could get 3 votes.

I think Jordon is stiff to get dropped. We obviously want to play Harmes on Neale and that has forced a midfield reshuffle. Spargo would have been the one I would have left out.

It’s go time Demons!

Didn’t Chandler and Bedford have Covid though?

You are surely not suggesting corruption at AFL House?

But I would argue that the percentages have now changed by the way we are being defended. The kick out strategy of going long to Gawn on the back flank is being set up for by the opposition and they are leaving plenty of space and free players down the centre of the ground. An AFL player should be able to hit an open 40m target at 80-90%. By taking these relatively free options more often, our Plan A becomes a higher percentage play. Similarly, we are kicking it long inside 50 on slow plays to Brown and Fritsch in the pocket against multiple opponents. Often we are ignoring free players 40m out. When our better users have the ball (Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Jordon, Rivers, Pickett, Spargo etc) they should be given more licence to go for these kicks. The other option for kicking into a congested 50 would be to go for a torpedo. The problem with our rigid game plan for inside 50 entries is has led to us making errors on fast plays. Against Collingwood, the strategy that cost us was that we were kicking long to a contest and ignoring loose players, instead of playing checkers,.

Riccardi is too slow.

All 5 of our double up games have had a percentage greater than 104%.

The higher percentage the Pies pay of Grundy's contract, the better the picks they will receive.

He needed the run because he had not played for 3 weeks, but you are right that he might not be selected off the back of a 5 day break.

That is a discussion for another time and my mail is TMac is still unlikely. But I think probably Melksham will make way. I still think our best footy apart from our glorious September, was at the start of 2021, when we had TMac in place of Ben Brown or Weideman. That line up gives us the most manic forward pressure.

I think Spargo has been lucky to hold his spot this year. 9 goals from 21 games is telling. (By comparison, Kossie has 34 goals from 20 games and Harmes 12 goals from 16 games.) I know we lose a bit of skill from swapping Harmes for Spargo but Harmes gives us more physicality around the contest and flexibility and he wins a lot more of the ball.

Gunston makes a lot more sense to me than Grundy. Jackson is not a player that is easily replaced because he is versatile. Silvani did a wonderful job as a second ruckman on Saturday and TMac or Weideman can play the role reasonably well.

I could not make the game live this week but watched it for a second time last night. We were not quite as clean as we were against the Magpies but Carlton's pressure was excellent and it was a much better MFC performance than I thought on the night. Cripps was incredible and Silvani did a great job as a second ruckman. The Blues key defenders were tough to get through. I know we are consistent in the way we play but I think we need to tinker a bit. In particular, I would like to see us try to hit a loose player inside 50 rather than always kicking to Brown who is outnumbered. Brown tried hard and competed but he is out with his timing. I think we will struggle to win the flag if he can't find marking form in September. Oliver was undisciplined in the last quarter and needs a rocket. (The down fields were both soft but giving away a shot at goal for a tummy punch was terrible play.) Spargo's lack of size and speed means he struggles at times. I wouldn't be surprise if he gets left out for Harmes or Smith. We need to kick the ball to Jackson inside 50 more often.

Howes is clean with his pick ups and moves beautifully. He will be a ripper when he gets strong enough to play AFL.

McKinsey Football Club

Grundy was very impressed by the MFC presentation this week according to Sam Edmond on SEN.

Our form has been very good despite losing 2/3. They won’t get near us if we can go up another level, which is what I expect.