Fat Tony

I think that is a revisionist view. I think this year that the opposition are testing us with plans that we have not faced before. Apart from the second half against Freo (when May was subbed out and Petracca was ill) and the last quarter against Collingwood (when we were injury struck), I haven't felt like our effort has been sub-par.

Is it realistic to expect to play your best game of the year every week? I don't think so. It takes a combination of luck (uncontrollable) as well as application (controllable) to have your best game. My view is that application has not been an issue. Last year we had games when our application was an issue against Collingwood and North, but this year is has been a pass mark every week. Rather, it is our game plan being worked out and, as premiers, the opposition are up for us every week. As I said, the solution is to be a bit more unpredictable with our ball movement and plans around stoppages.

I think Stokes is taking a lot out of Fritch being a goal hog. I don't see too much wrong in terms of us being team first. We have had five losses, four of which we had a bit of poor luck. Freo - May injured in the game, Petracca sick, Dockers played their best game for the season Sydney - May out, Petty injured for 20 mins, Sydney played their best game for the season and had a great run with the umpires in the last quarter Pies - May out, Turner concussed, Gawn injured in game, Pies played exceptionally well Cats - Thrashed around the ball and we should have lost by more WBD - Lever out, very even & high standard game, Dogs played their best game for the season, kicked 17.8 and had a great run with the umpires That said, I do believe our predictability is a weakness now and we need to mix things up. Firstly I would like to see us chipping the ball around the backline a bit more and using both sides of the ground and the corridor. We also need to push more numbers to the stoppages to neutralise the outnumber. We need to get better output from Gawn, Jackson, May and Salem in particular.

Petty was impressive in 2019 as a key forward. I think he is a more natural defender but we have great depth there. The question is if Petty is a better key forward than Weideman and/or Brown and how much we lose by including Tomlinson or Turner to replace him. I think we could ask the same question about swinging May forward.

Not the time for wholesale changes for me. We were pretty good and unlucky to be beaten by a team which played their best. Lever for Tomlinson would be the only change. The forward line functioned better with Weideman.

72%

That was a killer turnover by May. We were great in centre clearances but got a hiding at stoppages. Naughton’s goal out of the ruck was terrible. At least Fritsch looked to pass.

There’s a fair bit of young talent in the Casey side today. Turner, van Rooyen, Wowoedin, Bowey, Laurie and Howes returning.

I think Weideman will do better as the sole forward rather than alongside Brown. At least he will know it’s up to him to compete every time.

I hope we look to top up our list with some veterans who are flag chasing like Goldstein, Cunnington, Boak, Robbie Gray, Breust and/or Gunston. They aren't key forwards but they could be the difference in 2023. As much as we need a key forward to replace Ben Brown, he has two more years on his contract and the top key forwards will cost an enormous amount in salary cap space and picks. I think we should be looking at getting another gun small forward either in the draft or trade.

It won't be a good outcome if Jackson leaves. At best, if we play it right, it will be a less bad one.

That's good to hear. He looks very promising at VFL level.

Our list includes 5 AFL standard key defenders assuming Turner can continue to develop. (I think van Rooyen projects as a defender in addition to this.) But we don't have the cattle up forward. Ben Brown needs to lift and take a few marks. Kossie is brilliant on the ground but not yet a threat in the air. Fritsch plays as a seagull. van Rooyen is promising but not ready yet. TMac will be lucky to get back this year. Weideman has shown the same promise for his whole career. Spargo and ANB are in there to play pressure roles. There is not a lot Goodwin can do.

Lucky he isn't a skinner ruckman or he would go top 5!

My view is May has been mediocre since returning from suspension. Not hopeless but not at his best. Looks like Frankenstein bending over, missing short kicks and fumbling too often.

Time for May, Salem and Gawn to find some form.

I have never really liked the double chance. A final 10 with the first week being 7th vs 10th and 8th vs 9th followed by knock out quarter, semi/preliminary and grand finals makes the most sense to me. The benefit for finishing top 2 is an unrested opponent and home finals (until the grand final).

Jeremy Howe deserves it as well!

I think Jackson covers the ground very well but you are right in saying that he isn't Blicavs level in endurance. That said, I have wanted us to put Jackson in the midfield all year because he has the size, hands and explosiveness to be a weapon inside. I also think we need to experiment with the Cats in mind and would say that Blicavs has been a revelation due to his size and discipline more than just because of his running ability.

Petty and Oliver are automatic inclusions. Bedford and Tomlinson (assuming Lever is fit) out, albeit Tomlinson very stiff after a close to flawless game. We could see Brown (knee) miss and Weideman replace him. Tactically I would like to see Jackson run on the ball with Bontempelli for some parts of the game. The key issues in our game at the moment are the down form of Salem, Gawn and May. I would go for Hunt or Tomlinson as the sub.

Pies are chasing McStay as well, so they won't get free agent compensation if De Goey leaves.

You are right that they could have been a dynasty with that list profile but the Pies did come up against a great side in 2011 and led by 16 points in the Grand Final. (The 2011 Cats sit on the frontier of premiership sides since 2000 along with the 2000 Bombers, 2007 Cats and 2021 Demons according to the squiggle. https://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html) The exit of Malthouse was another factor in the failure to capitalise on a great list. Your analysis also shows that dynasties are hard to come by. Sometimes you have to take risks with bad eggs and trust your culture. The Hawks added Brian Lake and won 3 flags.

What about the Rat Pack Pies in 2010? There are also plenty of examples of bad eggs in good cultures who became premiership players. (De Goey would also be a premiership player but for a Dom Sheed kick from the boundary.) That said, I agree with the sentiment that culture is important and I raised De Goey as a topic without having a firm view on the pros/cons.

It is not the pick though. The issue with Grundy is he is on too much money. And it is hard to see the Pies being willing to pay enough money to facilitate a trade given they are still paying for Treloar. In the NBA, salary dump trades are pretty common, but they are harder in the AFL because the reward for tanking is less (the draft isn't as good an equalisation tool because we have 18 players) and because the player has to agree to any trade. I think we would get more value out of going for Goldstein, who is long in the tooth but will cost less salary cap space.

I wouldn't be going for De Goey if he wasn't a free agent. As for Sparrow and Harmes. They are both good players but they are not De Goey level talent.