old55

quoted for posterity

I'm confident Weideman will make it as an AFL player. It's someone else's (good) idea - if he doesn't make it as a forward he would make a very good key defender - he's strong in the air, clean at ground level for his size and is a beautiful kick. IMO he has to play this week in Hogan's absence. We've got to bite the bullet and give him his opportunity. In the medium term we do have a problem fitting him into the 22 with TMac and Hogan locking in the 2 tall forward spots and barring long-term injury to either (both have had foot troubles) or a move by Hogan back to Perth - he's going to be at Casey and that will not fulfill his ambitions or capability. If Hogan and TMac look good for 2019 pre-season, IMO it would be worth trying him down back over that period. We could retain T.Smith OR Pedo as willing depth in the key forward area In the long run down back we've got Lever, OMac and Frost (who has enhanced his reputation strongly) too, with Petty and Keilty as willing developing depth. We've got one of two promising talls on our list that are likely to be looking for opportunities elsewhere in the medium term - that's a good problem to have.

Yep Hib, Weed, Melk and Kent for Hunt, Hogan, Pedo and Spargo.

Exhibit A your Honour.

You just don't get it that you are the embodiment of the failure stereotype and your poisoned attitude feeds the hysteria. I'm not just referring specifically to you, in fact there are far worse cases who regularly post misery here.

Yes I did Nothing that happened 50 years ago has any bearing on the next 2 weeks or the path this group at the club is taking over the next few years. Jesse Hogan didn't miss easy shots on the weekend because Simon Eishold missed in the 87 Prelim and we didn't narrowly miss the finals last year because Bobby Skilton's team did in 1976. There is a whole new regime at the club - President and Board, CEO and staff, Coach and Football Department, playing list. - creating their own history. And I am very confident we're in the start of a very successful era. You don't have the self-awareness or perspective to understand that the stereotype that has clouded the club for 50 years is you and supporters like you. That the only place that there is a link between Norm Smith's sacking and what happened on Sunday is in your mind. And the only concern I have is that you and supporters like you could actually be close enough to the club to infect it with your losing culture. We are a young club that is learning to win big matches the hard way. You would be well served to actually listen to what Simon Goodwin says instead of the voices of doom in your head.

Clueless? According to you the reason we lost because of something that happened 50 years ago and not because we were 4.14.

It's very hard to understand why we didn't have a goal keeper in the square at that end of 3rd qtr stoppage. Ball went thru waist high.

Yes we usually are. I think selection this week will tell the tale.

https://squiggle.com.au/?rid=201822 Right now Squiggle's combined models have us 44% vs West Coast and 63% against GWS (they keep swinging around a bit). That means we're: 0.44*0.63 = 28% to win both 0.44*0.37+0.63*0.56 = 51% to win one 0.56*0.37 = 21% to win none Don't shoot me I'm just the piano player.

that's paying $22 at Sportsbet (including the MFC losses) $5.63 without the MFC games

Sydney looked pretty cooked to me in the last - but we couldn't take our massive oppotunities. Yes I think there has been selection and role errors but Goodwin is generally adventurous and there have been some massive pay-offs too in his tenure: TMac forward, recognising Melksham's talent and moving him forward, Brayshaw and Harmes midfield development, generally creative use of Fritsch. I'm a big Goodwin fan and it seems I'm more patient than most. He's 42 games in at 24-18.

Simon Godfrey, Paul Hopgood, Alex Neal-Bullen

Our experienced players aren't scarred, they are just flawed: Lewis' body is past it, he is a total liability when he doesn't have the ball and it's now physically beyond him to influence the outcome in a tight contest against good opposition Jones has always been just a good player who has got the most out of himself. Early in his career he was a ball butcher, in his prime a few years back he overcame this and became an effective user. Now he's over the peak, has lost a yard and is back to his butchering ways. He did everything within his limited abilities to get us across the line in the last quarter yesterday but he just could not hit a target often enough Garlett is a small forward - the hardest position on the ground to have an influence in pressure games. Even the elite like Stephen Milne struggled in maximum heat Our next 3 most experienced were TMac, who has won us a number of games off his own boot this year and last year and played well again yesterday but his usually reliable goal kicking is a bit off, Neville Jetta who is one of the best small defenders in the AFL and Dom Tyson who is a fringe player. It's just not a fearsome, deep set - yet. It's our supporters who are poisoned and scarred.

It's pretty straightforward: Lewis, Jones, Garlett vs. McVeigh, Franklin, Jack, Kennedy, Smith, Hannebury, Parker

We failed to capitilise on our opportunities and that's why we lost. It was pretty much a mirror image of our win against the Crows 2 weeks ago - of course that night we were champs and they were chumps and their fans were calling for Tex's head. But it's a fair call that we lack composure in big matches - we keep inventing new ways to lose. https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9692 MFC 16 players < 100 games. Sydney 12 MFC 3 players > 150 games. Sydney 7. Our 3 > 150 are Lewis, Jones and Garlett - each is flawed in a different way and is unable to be the match winner we've needed. Viney and Lever will make a big difference in this area.

Hunt and Pedersen ins this week didn't help us. They looked like a compromise solution - Pedersen - what was his role? Swing man because Max could not play his usual ruck minutes (only played 80%) and we wanted an extra tall forward to stretch Sydney's defence? That's a pretty defensive approach. And then Hunt to add pace for Smith because we're bring in slow Pedersen? But I don't think my suggested alternatives, Wagner and one of Hannan/Kent would have made a difference on the day anyway. Hibberd and Melksham definitely would and I'd have them in for Hunt and Pedersen. If they had played I think we win against Sydney. Then it will be fascinating to see what the football department think about the rest of the fringe: AVB, Spargo, Garlett, JKH. FWIW I thought JKH was pretty good - composed and used it well and stuck his tackles. Kent and Hannan are the alternatives again - one of them for Spargo IMO.

Yes they can if Sydney also lose to GWS, but they can't make it ahead of us which is the key point. I should have said the loser of Sydney v Hawthorn cannot finish ahead of us. Adelaide d North is key I agree

Nope - still impossible for me - both horrible. I will give Roughead >>> Selwood though

Hawthorn v Geelong - both horrible.

Goodwin SEN interview definitely sounded like Hunt in for Joel Smith, and Max to play. I love Bernie but he looked terrible last week, I'd like Fritsch to play back and Kent (or maybe Hannan) for Bernie. SEN noted Buddy is 14-0 against MFC!

No because both Sydney and Hawthorn would have 13 wins going into R23 and they both can't win that game. Only a draw would put us out.

IMO the most likely safe path to the 8 with 13 wins: R21: MFC d Syd R21: Geel d Haw R22: Ade d Nth Then North and the loser of Sydney and Hawthorn in the last round cannot make it no matter what else happens in R22 and 23.

Richmond v Gold Coast could get ugly this week - the 190 points record in play. (edited - see post below)

If you look at this page: https://live.squiggle.com.au/#tower You need to click on TOWER in the top menu bar It shows the probability of finishing position based on running (10,000?) simulations Max Barry's footy data visualisation is 2nd to none