old55

Four South Australians in Cal Twomey's latest Phantom Form Guide: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-16/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-september 2. Lukosius 3: Rankine ... 8. Rozee 10. Hately Port hold 9 and is expected to get 10 from North for Polec from North. That would put them right in the frame for Rozee and Hately. Adelaide holds 7 & 15 (from us for Lever). Gold Coast will get 3 as compensation for Lynch and these picks will go out by one. GC will hold 2 & 3 - if Port or Adelaide want to get into the frame for Lukosius and Rankine they probably need to trade with GC. A lot of the Hogan / May discussion with Freo has been based around Freo trading pick 4 and 22 (5 & 23 after Lynch) that they receive from Brisbane for Neale to Port for 9 & 10 and then on trading one of them to us. This reading of the play suggests that pick 5 may not be early enough to get into the Lukosius / Rankine frame - it looks like any deal has to be struck with GC to me..

It is a valid observation that he didn't train with the main group during the finals. He does seem to have continuing injury concerns. The FD clearly love what he offers because they brought him in at the earliest hint he was ready to go in 2017 and 2018. His attack on the contest and the impact it brings is probably up there with our best like Viney. But the queries on his disposal skills are valid too. Fair observations that he's a terrible handballer. I'd definitely prefer we keep him, he was in my start of year best 22, but he 's not core to success.

Yeah well welcome to the world Rumplestiltskin. We just don't operate that wat because what goes around comes around and we're fair dealers.

No points are also used to value picks only trades.

Pick 4 = 2034 points. Pick 9 = 1469 points the difference is 565 points. Pick 33 = 563 points. So pick 4 = pick 9 + 33. The closest pick Port hold is pick 27. If we offered pick 4 to Port they'd offer us back 9 + 27 which would still favour us. There's no way they'd offer 9 + 10 which equals 2879. It's not that hard.

[censored] they'll do the deal with Brisbane or Freo who hold the picks worth the equivalent points.

The #1 hasn't had a great run at MFC.

Posters need to realise that the points deal to get Port's 9 and 10 is 4 AND 22 that Freo get from Brisbane for Neale. The talk of us trading just pick 4 or even 5 for 9 +10 is fantasyland. It's really not that hard to look up the points table. Also 5 + 10 for Hogan values him much higher than 4 + 22 for Neale.

Andrew Brayshaw is proven general midfield quality who has had a good exposure to AFL. He had a very solid AFL year, he was a lock in my fantasy team so I followed his progress and he consistently built throughout the year. Relentless midfield quality rotation wears down the opposition. And yes there is something in the Brayshaw name. Good culture is key to success. I love the way Angus goes about it and that's highly likely to be a Brayshaw trait that Andrew will bring. It also brings a stronger bond in adversity. I think we also get a lot from the Macs. I love Toms approach and Oscar seems very similarly smart, sensible and driven.

Point 1 Collingwood went in too small. I'm in favour of getting May and have remained unconvinced by Frost despite his good year where he played to his maximum.

It was a great game and umpired well. There were a couple of crucial ones either way that could have been paid in the last but the balance and letting the game go was good. West Coast had the momentum for 75% of the game and deserved to win. I think the key factors were: Collingwood went in too short. They needed to pull the trigger on Reid or Moore. All WC's key players fired and did their job. Yeo was restricted by Greenwood but not nullified. It allowed Shuey off the chain and he took full toll. Collingwood had vital players that failed. Grundy was effectively nullified by WC tandem rucks and a direct tag. Sidebottom was smashed by Hutchins who doesn't seem to be getting enough credit - 41 dangerous disposals down to 14 is a massive loss. Pendlebury failed to fire - he has been a great player and this was his opportunity but Shuey took it. It was a highly contested game and that's what we are based on so it reinforces we are on the right path.

All true and good analysis. But we are now flag contenders and we don't want to trade Hogan for talented 18 year olds. We need solid best 22 ready to go. That's why I think May offers appropriate value with say pick 10 if we get that in the deal. Probably good for the Suns too. If they want a fresh cultural start they need him out so they can move forward and there's no complete guarantee they will get band 1 at the end of 2019. My first preference is for something like Andrew Brayshaw (we're not getting Cerra) and May (with pick 10) for Hogan.

Yes good observation. And Chris Masten a premiership player too from the deal. Tony Notte - less impact

I will be totally amazed if Gaff stays at West Coast. He would have made his mind up already and he would have announced it ahead of the GF as a morale booster. His obvious devastation yesterday was because he could have left on the high note of a flag but for his action and suspension. Will most probably nominate North for megabucks but I suspect we've been right in the discussion for a long time and the Hogan trade may be giving us scope to the offer, there's a chance he comes to us.

Yes Oscar has further improvement but he has made significant improvement year on year. McCartney is directly involved with defence and I expect he'll be working hard with Oscar directly on these things.

Frost has been good this year and played well to his strengths as well described in tecent posts. But his other weakness on display particularly in the last two finals was aerial - he misjudged and drpped crucial marks. I think OMac's strength issues will be more easily overcome. He is on a curve of improvement

Not sure if serious? Collingwood are well known to be in the race for May Double down: strengthen one's commitment to a particular strategy or course of action, typically one that is potentially risky. The West Coast marking forwards were a key reason they won the GF, therefore the appeal of a strong key defender to Collingwood will be even stronger and they are likely to increase their offer to May.

After today's GF Collingwood will be doubling down on their offer to May.

What are all these Essendon trading coups you are referring to?

There's a lot water to flow under the bridge before the final deal is washed through but 10 for May is not as unreasonable as many seem to be saying. If we genuinely rate him as the key tall back we need he's going to be worth something like that.

In your previous post you claimed we were smashed in the deal. It doesn't look like that to me.

Well the difference between the popular alternative of our 1st + our 2nd and what we did is: 2018 pick 14 & 68 Vs Spargo, Petty & 2018 pick 43 No points discussion there. It feels like a win to us right now with Spargo and Petty looking like very good AFL. Constant focus on just the 2018 1st ignores them and the 2018 3rd.

Why do posters continue to perpetuate the myth that the Lever trade was for 2 first rounders only? We got a 2nd back and late 4th to mid 3rd round upgrade. Do you always say keep the change when you hand over a $50? It was actually a better deal than the originally mooted 1st + 2nd. Particularly because we finished high in 2018 and this year's first was devalued. It was a good deal IMO.

A lot of discussion about perceived large list changes. Here's the numbers from last year: https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.triplem.com.au/sport/afl/news/2017-afl-retirements-and-delistings/amp Adelaide 8. Brisbane 12. Carlton 13. Collingwood 8. Essendon 8. Fremantle 12. Geelong 7. Gold Coast 12. GWS 8. Hawthorn 8. Melbourne 8. North 8. Port 11. Richmond 7. Saints 8. Sydney 8. West Coast 12. Dogs 9. 8 is the magic number, minimum is two 7s. Our projected number of around 10 is not an outlier. WC 12 and in the GF

Claimed unconvincingly it was the first he'd heard of the idea. Said Jesse has been through a lot personally, that it was an individual decision and he would support him in whatever decision he makes.