old55

If you look at this page: https://live.squiggle.com.au/#tower You need to click on TOWER in the top menu bar It shows the probability of finishing position based on running (10,000?) simulations Max Barry's footy data visualisation is 2nd to none

Big ask for Joel Smith

It's impossible to fathom the thinking of many posters here. "Viney upsets the balance of the midfield", "Viney's not that good anyway", "Viney will never play again". He's a bona fide star who won the 2016 B&F at 22. He makes us better and I am hope he is able to get back for finals as planned.

First week of VFL Finals coincides with the AFL week off. He could make it back for that and get game minutes. Viney is exactly who we need come AFL finals.

I picked up my bags, I went looking for a place to hide When I saw old Carmen and the Devil, walking side by side I said, "Hey, Carmen, c'mon, let's go downtown" She said, "I gotta go, but my friend can stick around"

You thought we'd lose to Gold Coast

I'm in favour of red card but it has to remain 18 v 18 on the field. Red card is only applied if the targetted player is out of the rest of the game - then it's 21 v 21.

That's true but 200 points is a big IF

IMO if we can beat Sydney we just need one of Hawthorn d Geelong OR Adelaide d North to make it on 13

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur: North wins all 3 Geelong wins all 3 Hawthorn wins 2 Collingwood wins 2 Port wins 2 Sydney wins 2 Because that puts them on 14 wins.

It only takes 2 of those 4 "2 win" scenarios for us to miss out on 13 wins (along win North and Geelong winning all 3). It's quite possible.

Not really: North and Geelong win all 3 2 of Port, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Sydney win 2

I think it should be Wagner in for Smith, we extended his contract, this is the type of situation he's required for. Bernie looked way off, I love him but he looks passed it, I'd have him out too and play Fritsch back. Back 7 - Jetta, Oscar, Wagner, Lewis, Frost, Salem, Fritsch. Melksham in or if he's not ready then Kent or Hannan. I think Frost is the preferred match up for Buddy.

The difference is you can't match the offer for an unrestricted FA and force a trade. In Lynch's case it probably doesn't matter because GC will finish low and their compensation pick after their first rounder - say pick 3 will be at around trade market value. However in Gaff's case it does matter because WC's compensation pick after is likely to be late teens and well below trade market value so they might take the option to match and force a trade at market value. If the AFL want to differentiate the RFA and UFA categories further they could remove compensation for UFA. http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

The equations above work in reverse for me too. If we are within 27 points or within a goal a minute in the last 4 minutes we're a chance.

I feel comfortable at 27 points up, when it's below that there's uneasiness. vs Crows from Q4 2:02 when Galucci goaled we were <27 ahead vs Geelong from Q4 4:08 when Hawkins goaled we were <27 ahead As posted above, in the last 4 minutes it's a goal per minute threshold.

Spargo guaranteed 100+ games player. Probable 200 game Premiership player.

I like the inclusion of VDB, he was in my pre-season best 22. I'm nervous with JKH, Garlett and Spargo all in the side going into finals - and they have weaker opposition this week to consolidate their positions. I'd like to see at least some bigger bodies - Melksham and maybe Kent to come in for one or two of them.

Definitely an Essendon win is better for us. They are not going to win all four with Richmond and Port away in there. If North win all 4 (more likely than Essendon winning all 4) and Hawthorn win 3 we can miss even with 13 wins.

Hawthorn v Essendon - what a horrible combination - can they both lose? Crows vs North at AO R22 is another challenge for North. If they win all 4 we can miss out with 13 wins.

I read elsewhere on the site that Viney can only play midfield - that is ridiculous. He plays midfield because he's very, very good there but he'd also be very good as a small forward or small defender. For example I don't think Eddie or Laird would have been too happy last week if Jack had lined up on one of them. If he is permanently on management for this then there are alternatives. I know these roles have running involved with small forward defensive efforts a la ANB and small defenders coming up and back in the press, but if necessary there's a productive role there with less running than as a pure mid.

You want to sack someone different every week.

Some here would then be advocating: Out: Tyson In: Viney's toe

We were tremendous again for the second week in a row - under-manned, away at a hostile environment against nearly full-strength decent opposition. Of course for the "wins are all that matter" crowd it must be: vs Geelong = bad while vs Adelaide = good. And the "mentally weak" crowd desperately searching for faults against Adelaide to maintain their slippery critical grip.

Spargo will be a very good player but he struggles to win 1-on-1 just because he lacks strength. He is a smart player and a hard worker so he stays in. I was alarmed at Jeff Garlett's inability to stick a tackle. I think we lack competitive strength with both Spargo and Garlett in the forward line. I'd have Kent for Garlett. JKH had his good moments, the pass to Jones and his follow up goal, but I'd definitely prefer VBD. Jay played reduced minutes anyway 69% - so Vanders limited preparation is not a factor there if he is also on limited minutes. I'm far from taking GC easy but vs them is just as good a hit-out for Vanders as another game at Casey. It's probably unlikely to happen though. Two of my whipping boys Frost and ANB have been very good in the last two weeks. Tyson has his critics but he was OK, won some critical around the ground clearances and had 2 goal assists. He's probably out when Viney comes in though. When Hibberd is fit he'll come in for Bernie or Joel Smith - it's a toss up but it's probably Bernie. I think Joel Smith will make it but I'm not sure he adds more than Hunt if Jayden can find some form.. There's no way I could see all of Frost, Hibberd, J.Smith and Hunt in the same backline. So for me this week: In: Kent, VDB. - Out: Garlett, JKH There'll probably be more injuries so this wont stack up, but in an ideal world in the run in to end of the season. In: Hibberd, Viney, Hunt - Out: Vince, Tyson, J.Smith If we have a good run with injuries that would ultimately give us something like: B: Jetta OMac Hibberd Salem Frost Lewis M: Gawn Oliver Viney Jones Brayshaw Harmes F: ANB Hogan Petracca Kent TMac Melksham I: Fritsch Hunt VDB Spargo That's a pretty scary combo that can go all the way.