two sheds jackson

I agree with you re: Molan, Bell and Smith. Other than that, you're either selling players short, writing them off too early or failing to take into consideration that there werent any better options available. Sylvia (3) McLean (5): McLean looks like he'll be a club stalwart and a possible captain- as a worst case scenario, if he doesnt improve at all from here on (and he will) he will still be a good player. Sylvia has shown enough to convince me that he'll be handy as well- he's disappointing for a number 3, but it was a disappointing draft in general; in my opinion both of them were pretty good selections with all things considered. Moloney (traded for pick 12): Fair enough, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen Moloney's injury worries. Bate (13): Pretty good pick up if you ask me. Bate needs to work on a few areas of his game, but all in all I'm pretty excited about him. Who should we have taken, in your opinion, instead of Bate? Dunn (15): I think he's unfairly maligned on this site. In retrospect he probably wasn't the best choice, but I'd hardly call Dunn at 15 a disaster. Jones (12): Excellent pickup. Wont be a superstar, but will be a key component of our side for the next ten years, and a leader in years to come. McLean and Jones could be the cornerstone of a genuinely fearsome midfield in a few years time. Frawley (12): It was always expected that Frawley would take time to develop. I agree that he probably needs to carve out a regular spot in the best 22 next year, and the decision to pick him surprised alot of people (myself included)- I think most people would have thought we'd get Jack Riewoldt if he was available. Fact is, Riewoldt has yet to set the world on fire and Frawley is developing at about the rate that was probably expected of him- in my opinion its far too early to say this was the wrong decision. I dont think anyone would argue with your contention that so far, McLean is the only 1st round draft pick who you could call a "very good footballer". But all the other names (except arguably Bell and Moloney) have a significant amount of development left in them, so I dont think we should be lamenting our "wasted" first round draft picks just yet.

I'd imagine he was told to put on muscle to help address this exact problem. He gets pushed off the ball too easily and cant lay a front-on tackle. If bulking up helps him improve in these areas (and they're a pretty serious problem, to be honest) then I'm all for it.

Nobody should be concerned about there being a repeat of the Thompson saga. CJ is not in the same leage; doesnt have anything remotely resembling the natural talent or the appetite for contested possessions that Thompson had. There's no comparison. Even the people crowing about how we gave Newton a two-year deal while getting rid of CJ (which hasn't turned out to be the case) have it wrong. Newton has been frustrating, and its questionable whether he has the drive to work hard enough to overcome his obvious short-comings (ability at ground level, etc), but if he reaches his full potential, Newton's upside is a hell of a lot better than CJ's upside. I would like to have kept him, but I don't see it as any big loss. Even if CJ reaches his absolute full potential, he'll be a handy, borderline best-22 player at best.

This is bad news. We had a better hope of getting rid of him before; now they'll see how [censored] he is firsthand. In all seriousness, I can see St Kildas current policy coming back to bite them pretty hard. Going for Cousins is one thing, but if you do that I would have thought you'd want nothing but stabilising influences around him, not [censored] like Carroll. Despite this years finish (where despite finishing 4th they were never a chance) they're at a point now where they probably should rebuild, not top up the list with off-field culture sores who (in this case at least) arent even very good on-field.

If we were offered a first round pick for Aaron Davey we would be mad not to look at it, and I'd lean towards taking it. I understand the point about him being a crowd favorite, but a winning side without Davey will draw more kids to a game than a losing side with Davey. I'm not even going to dignify the "point" about Wonna leaving the club if Davey does, which seems to be supported by nothing more than the fact that they're both black. He will be pushing 30 by the time we're a serious threat; by that stage he might be able to contribute as an "icing on the cake" type player (to be honest, thats all he's ever been) but he wont be a vital contributer a premiership winning team. With two first round draft picks, we stand a chance of picking up two players who could be. I know there's more to it than that, and I wouldn't quite call the decision a no-brainer, but I'd be pretty inclined to do it.

Dees06; if we finish in the higher end of the bottom 8 it will mean that our (very young) side is progressing and that Bailey's gameplan is catching on- and we'd still get a top 10 draft pick. If we win one game it will show that we've gone backwards, and that Bailey might not be up to the task. This whole notion that its better to sit in the bottom four for a few years to pick up draft picks is ridiculous. It didnt help St Kilda, and theres a fair chance it wont help Carlton. It hasnt been Hawthorns strategy; they bottomed out in 2004, marginally improved in 2005, significantly improved in 2006, made the 8 in 2007 and became a serious premiership contender this year. Our bottoming out period was (hopefully) this year and last year, and we should be hoping for steady improvement over the next few years.

Anyone have any idea where he was roughly projected to go, prior to tonight? Just wondering- if he was expected to go later than pick 17 then that obviously leaves us with more options than we thought. Does this effect us, or not really?

One thing about Moloney; people keep pointing out that he has missed so much football that its gotten to a stage where the game might have passed him by. While I can see their point, the fact is that whenever he's managed to string a few games together (at the start of last year and in his 8 games this year) his form has actually been pretty good. It seems like he's finally overcome his OP only to be hit with a shoulder injury. I'd give him a one year extension (or a two year extension with conditions attached). Unless theres more to it than we know and he's still got ongoing issues that wont allow him to get fit, I'd see this as a low-risk venture.

This looks like fun. We will take Naitanui at pick 1, and he'll make his debut in Round 1 next year, quickly establishing himself as our number 1 ruckman, our premier midfielder and our full forward all at the same time. He will win every single ruck contest he engages in, and his general strategy will be to tap the ball to himself, so that he can run it out of the centre to the 50 metre arc, bomb it into the forward line and outrun the ball to take the mark in the goal square. Sylvia will constitute our entire backline and not a single goal will be kicked against Melbourne for the entire year; on the rare occasion that the opposition have a set shot for goal, Sylvia will take a 30 metre vertical leap to make the defensive mark (sometimes he'll even get his jumper caught on the goalpost, and they'll have to get a cherry picker to help him back down). The other 20 players in the side will be instructed to stand on the boundary line for the entire game so they don't get in the way. Watts wont get picked up in the PSD; Geelong will take him in the rookie draft. Even then, they will come to regret it; he will go down as literally the worst footballer in history, and everyone who sees him play (in Geelong's VFL reserves team) will die a little inside.

Except Bate isn't riff raff; at this stage he could still end up a better player than whoever goes at pick 8. Wont happen. We wouldnt go for it, and neither would Richmond.

Unfortunately I have to agree with Jarka; he has grown in leaps and bounds this year and Im sure we all hope this continues, but he's always going to be a "good honest tryer" and nothing more; I doubt anyone would argue that he has the makings of a premier CHF, and you can bet we'll be looking for one of those over the next few years. When we find one (and we have to), what then with Miller? I dont mean this as a slight on him, but the fact that he has been one of our best this year speaks volumes about the state of our list right now- if and when we're a serious contender for the flag, if Miller is still getting games, it will be as a third tall on either end of the ground, and as one of the bottom 11 players in our best 22. On a positive note, he has obvious leadership qualities and apparently a great attitude (his teammates and coaching staff seem to hold him in the highest regard). He'll be great to have around the club in the rebuilding years, and even when we're a serious threat again, the intangible on-field qualities he brings; his ability to lead and inspire, could be valuable provided he's firmly in the best 22.

Dont count on it. He has said he'd like to stay in Melbourne. That doesnt mean he'll "come home at at the first chance"- I'm sure most players who enter the draft would, ideally, rather get picked up by a club from their home state, but once drafted, most of them end up staying where they are. If he emerges as the definite best player in the draft, and a WA club is in a position to take him, they will not pass on him just because he's said he wants to stay in Victoria. And Jaded, I'm just going to assume he's theirs unless (and until) we get him. The whole Judd saga has left me with a "once bitten, twice shy" kind of approach to this.

Thanks. I figured there must be something. Basically agree with you FWIW. I guess, though, at the moment, there seems to be more disagreement than usual (from people who know what they're talking about) regarding who is actually the best prospect out of the top 3, and if there really is that little between them, then you can sort of see how all three clubs might start to look at the players state of origin and the clubs own needs (list-wise) when making a decision, moreso than they normally would. If thats all it is, and there is no clear standout between the 3 (or all three clubs simply disagree with each other about who's the best) then the idea might have some merit. Still, if we did this trade on the understanding that we want Watts and that West Coast's second preference is Rich, only for West Coast to change their mind (which they may well do if the top 3 are so close), well...

This business about swapping pick 1 for pick 3 doesnt make sense. The theory seems to be that since its such a sure thing that we want Watts, West Coast want Rich and Freo want Natanui, then we can swap picks with Freo as part of a Warnock trade and still get Watts. But even if it IS a sure thing (its not; regardless of their intentions right now Freo or WC could change their mind by draft day), then Freo must know that neither us nor WC are after Natanui, so they dont need pick 1 to get him, so the trade would give them literally nothing. Am I missing something?

I'm not quite as hopeful as I'd like to be; if he doesnt name us as a preference specifically (and it sounds like he hasnt so far) then we're probably last in line. From Freo's perspective, they'd much rather deal with Carlton or the Tigers right now than deal with us- much more likely to get something good for him. If we get him, fantastic, but I wouldnt want to bank too much on it.

Dees06; even if Rivers can get himself right and play out a full season (and I'm not holding my breath) I'd be reluctant to move Garland forward. We havnt had a quality FB in ages (last three have been Nicho, Ferg and Carrol), and now, just when it looks like we might have finally found one, why move him? At this stage an ideal scenario for us would be Garland and a CHF (Martin?) consistently holding down the key positions, with Rivers zoning off to help them both out. That could turn into a potent backline in a few years, why rob ourselves of it? Rogue, Im a bit young to remember Neitz at CHB (Im 22 so I was around, but couldnt make an informed judgement) but most people I talk to say the move was done out of necessity when Schwartz went down and that while he obviously adapted well, Neitz was a natural CHB and the common consensus seems to be that he would have been a better defender than he was a forward, but we had no other options. Some people might say we have no key forward options now either, but since we're in a complete rebuilding phase I think we can afford to draft and develop one rather than throwing Garland up there as a quick fix. I'm all for experimenting with it occasionally, and if everything just clicks (eg if it turns out he's a better forward than a backman, and someone like Frawley really improves and takes FB) then great, I just dont want to see us robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Posted by Grand Plan on Demonology: Just been to the council meeting thought ide let u know as much as i know. Plans have been passed by Casey Council, i think it was 7 in favour and 3 against. Development will cost 2.1 mil. The agreement is for 10yrs initially and the MFC has agreed to train there 8 weeks a yr over pre-season for 10yrs. Option for 20 and 30 yrs on the agreement. We will train there until MRS is complete. So going by that football opereations will relocate for a yr and a half or so... Funding breakdown: $1,25m Council $500,000 MFC $350,000 VFL Total $2.1m MFC will not acquire an asset through the deal, and the $500,000 we are contributing will be secured/gaurantaured by an organisation other than a bank. The deal also depends on the VFL funds being transfered which hasn't been agreed upon by the state government. I'm not sure if there are options on the contract as I'm just going by what was provided at the Casey Council Meeting and contracts were only completed this morning. So whether or not there is an option on us acquiring an asset or not after 10yrs was not revealed. The community partnership program we will be undertaking will amount to be worth $6.53m over 10yrs to the local municipality.

Anyone who missed it shouldnt be too disappointed. Basic wrap-up: The McNamee interview was about what you'd expect. Said he felt he didnt have time to achieve what he wanted to, and that when the new board were appointed he suddenly had to conform to a vision that was completely at odds with the one that got him the CEO position in the first place. Said he saw no problem with his trip to Wimbledon or with his attempt to lure Jonathon Brown to the club- Brown was on the panel and said he knew nothing about it. Didn't seem bitter about his treatment- Hutchy tried to goad him into criticizing Chris Connolly, but he didnt take the bait, just said that Connolly obviously had a very different idea about managing the list to himself, but that he (Connolly) had great passion for the club. All pretty boring and predictable, really. The only thing remotely of interest came at the start of the show; Newman asked Garry Lyon about Melbourne pulling out of the Bubbledome and Lyon seemed to have his doubts that this was the case. Still, he didnt categorically deny it either. No Stynes interview, and we didn't really hear anything new.

You sure he's going to be on? They've said Hutchy will interview McNamee, but I havnt heard anything about Jimmy.

Dappa, why do you have Aussie at second last? Not a fan, or do you think some of the others will kick on better than expected? I'm not going to rank them individually in descending order, but I think: Garland, Petterd, Morton, Bate and Wonaeamirri will all end up being great players, with the chance of one or two of them being superstars. The two with the best chance of being stars, for mine, would be Morton and Wonaemirri. Jones is easily the most certain to be a great player, but he also doesnt have the upside of the other five. Dunn, Frawley, Martin and Buckley should all be handy players, with the chance of one or two of them being great. Dunn is the most likely looking of the three, Buckley the least. Bartram has a fair chance of making it as a "good ordinary" player, making up one of the bottom five players in the best 22 in a good team. Newton is a rare case- his career could still go in two radically different directions. Bode wont make it as anything more than a depth player.

I agree with Tez- regardless of the rightness or wrongness of the decision (and we really dont know enough to say one way or the other), the way its all come about is a big worry. If the new board were keen to get rid of McNamee from day one, then they obviously meant to keep a lid on it so that they could put the feelers out and get as good of an idea as possible about potential replacements before publicly announcing a decision. It looks like someone in the know (possibly even a board member) might have blown that plan out of the water by leaking it to Sheahan, forcing the club to announce the decision sooner than they would have liked. The fact that there has been no mention of a possible change of CEO in the media until yesterday, that McNamee himself only found out about it through the media, and that Stynes' press conference was announced only after PM's sacking was common knowledge -in short, the whole way this situation has been handled- screams of panic.

I love Convict Creations. If you look at the other club profiles, he makes a pretty concerted effort to insult every team equally based on their prevailing public perception (e.g that Collingwood supporters are ferals, or that to barrack for Essendon is to throw your support behind a soulless corporation). They're all written with tongue firmly in cheek, but he still manages to give a pretty good account of the history of the clubs and the code in general. In fact the site in general is a great starting point for anyone curious about any given Australian sporting code, artistic movement, political party or whathaveyou- it has alot of brief, highly entertaining rundowns of pretty much anything having to do with Australian culture and history. You have to read that article with a thick skin, basically, because he's pretty much taking the [censored].

Cheers mate. Spent alot more time on it than I probably should have . Got exams coming up in a week, so I'm using any excuse I can to put off actually studying for them.

Based on what we've seen in the first half of the year, I thought it might be interesting to start a thread looking briefly at each player on the list, and speculating on the best, worst and most likely scenarios for how they finish the season. In other words, we're looking at what we HOPE they might realistically achieve, what their WORST realistic outcome for the year could be and where they will MOST LIKELY be by the end of the year. Two rules: * Be realistic. Dont make a post saying that the best case scenario for Benny Holland is to suddenly establish himself as the next Jonathan Brown and play for another ten years. You have to say what you genuinely think the player can achieve if they get the absolute best out of themself. * Obviously the worst thing that can realistically happen to a professional athelete is a long term injury, so dont put that as a worst case scenario. We're not talking about a terrible unforseen occurance, we're talking about what could be the worst case scenario for each player based on what we know about them. Clint Bartram: Best Case Scenario: Gets back to playing the sort of footy he was playing in his debut year. Becomes a likely replacement for James McDonald. Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Becomes a likely replacement for Simon Godfrey. Most Likely Scenario: I have every confidence he'll get back to '06 form, but its going to take him a while, and he might need the odd spell at Sandy. His development was greatly offset by missing an entire year of footy, but anyone who saw him in his debut year knows he can go- will never be the best player in a team, but he's the type of player every team needs. Fair to say he wont be as good as JMac, but he could play the same role competently. Matthew Bate: Best Case Scenario: Plays consistently good footy at CHF/HFF, with a few absolute blinders. Convinces everyone he will be gun forward, leaves us salivating in anticipation for what he will do next year. Worst Case Scenario: Teases us with the odd good game but plays just as many ordinary ones- defenders start to take advantages of his lack of pace, running off him and rebounding out of our forwardline with ease. Doesnt really establish himself in any position. Most Likely Scenario: Dont know why, but Ive got a feeling that by the end of the year, Bate will be the one we're most exited about going into next year. I genuinely think that my best case scenario for Bate is probably the most likely one as well. Daniel Bell: Best Case Scenario: Gets back to last years form. While its clear to everyone he'll never be brilliant, he becomes a "good ordinary player", and a valuable negating small defender. Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Becomes a depth player or gets traded. Most Likely Scenario: I think this is going to be a dog of a year for Bell, and that next year will probably be the acid test; it'll be up to him to prove which Daniel Bell was the "real one"; the tenacious negating defender we saw in 07 or the fish out of water we've seen in 08. I honestly dont know what will come of him. Jace Bode: Best Case Scenario: Takes advantages of the Melbournes lack of good rebounding defenders and finds a regular place in the team. Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Delisted. Most Likely Scenario: Dont see him doing anything between now and seasons end to prove he can make it at AFL level. Cameron Bruce: Best Case Scenario: Steps up as an on-field leader and finishes the year by playing consistently good football, as opposed to the odd great game (getting fewer and further between), the odd shocker and alot of very mediocre games. Worst Case Scenario: I cant really see him going backwards- not saying he's playing terrible football and has nowhere to go but up, I just dont see Cameron Bruce suddenly going drastically downhill this year. As a worst case scenario, he'll continue as is without improving. Most Likely Scenario: As stated, I dont see him going backwards, but Im not holding my breath waiting for him to start showing genuine on-field leadership or playing consistently good football either. I fear the worst case scenario is probably the most likely one for Bruce; his current form this year will more or less continue, throughout this year and the rest of his career. His trade value shouldnt go down too much, so unless the coaching staff think he's good for the younger players developement I hope we try to trade him for a late second-round pick. He wont be part of our next premiership. Simon Buckley: Best Case Scenario: Works very hard at overcoming the present flaws in his game (decision making especially) and, by the end of the year, become a borderline best-22 type. Worst Case Scenario: Doesnt improve. Ends up a handy depth player at best. Most Likely Scenario: Wouldnt like to say at this point. He'll play the odd game for sure, but whether he shows by the end of the year that he's best 22 or not, who knows. I think in two years time he could be anything: he has some obvious attributes which could make him a very handy component of a top-4 team, but also some glaring deficiencies which -if he cant remedy- will stop him from making it at AFL level. Nathan Carrol: Best Case Scenario: Gets back in the team towards end of year if we're giving some of the youngens a break. Plays some good stopping games on some of the leagues best key forwards, acquiring some market value. We find the best possible trade we can for him and we run with it; even if it looks like we're getting the short end of the stick, a late draft pick MIGHT be a part of our future, Carrol WONT be, and by all reports is not the type of character you want around developing 18 year olds. Worst Case Scenario: Doesnt get another game, tapers off at Sandy due to lack of motivation, loses all currency in the trade period. Most Likely Scenario: Id say he has a few years left of AFL football and he knows it. Will probably keep monstoring young opposition forwards at Sandy and get a few games towards the end of the year, and we'll probably try to trade him again at years end. Again, I dont really care that much if we get short-changed a bit; not that I think he's a bad footballer, but I do think he's more of a hindrence to our list than a help at this stage. Aaron Davey: Best Case Scenario: Comes back and continues the form he was in for those few weeks before his injury. Establishes himself as a possible permanent wingman. Worst Case Scenario: Comes back, but plays the sort of inconsistent football he was playing earlier in the year (and for most of his career to date). Gets sent back to the forwardline out of necessity, because he fails to really impose himself in the midfield. More or less confirms that he will never be anything more than a flashy but inconsistent opportunistic small forward. Most Likely Scenario: I think he will get back to his pre-injury form, but that it might take him a few weeks to build up to it. I cant really remember him coming back from injury and imposing himself on the game for four quarters in his first match back. The jury will probably still be out on whether the Davey experiment in the midfield is a winner or not, even by seasons end. Lynden Dunn: Best Case Scenario: Continues to play well in a tagging role. Given a few games to find his own footy or play as a CHF/HFF in the final rounds of the season, and shows that he has learnt from the experience. Becomes a very exciting prospect for next year. Worst Case Scenario: Gets smashed by his direct opponent a few times and starts to lose confidence. Ends up a regular at Sandy again by the end of the year. Most Likely Scenario: At this stage, probably 50/50 either way, and with a slight possibility that he might simply continue to play as a tagger for the rest of the year without being given a chance to get his own ball or play as a forward for a full game. He definately has the ability to learn alot from playing as a tagger and establishing himself by years end, but he could just as easily have a few bad games and lose his way. James Frawley: Best Case Scenario: Comes back through Sandy, gets a few games there so that he can prove to himself that he's a ring or two above that level. On return to AFL, gets a few games on the oppositions second or third best forward, to build up his confidence a bit more (obviously if a matchup isnt working and it makes sense to swap him onto the best opposition forward midgame then fine, but as a general plan of attack), gets a crack at FB by years end and holds himself well. Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Is not a definite best 22 at the start of next year. Most Likely Scenario: Will learn a bit with each game. There might not be obvious signs of major improvement by the end of the year but I dont think it's cause for alarm- he'll develop at his own pace, will get smashed plenty of times, particularly against the top forwards but theres no better way to learn. Will be a player in years to come. Colin Garland: Best Case Scenario: Continues to improve with each game. Establishes himself as a definite starting key defender by the end of the year. Worst Case Scenario: Hard to say. I guess someone could kick a bag on him and he could lose a bit of confidence from it, but unless that sets off a really bad patch of form and he ends up a regular at Sandy again, it wont hurt him to be beaten every now and then. Most Likely Scenario: Again, for Garland I think the best case scenario is also the most likely one. Brad Green: Best Case Scenario: Keeps doing what he's doing, more or less. Captain next year, and the main leader at the club during the all-important rebuilding phase of the next few years. He wants it, he deserves it, and he's perfect for it. Worst Case Scenario: Tapers off and plays the inconsistent, front-running footy he was playing a few years ago. Does not get named in the leadership group next year. Possibly traded. Most Likely Scenario: Will probably keep going as is. Hard to say if he'll be captain next year, but he should be in the leadership group for sure. As a sidenote, I hope like hell that Bailey's letting the players choose the leadership group last year was not a permanent thing, but decided to do it as a once off in his first year because he didnt know players personally at the time, so didnt feel up to chosing the leaders himself. Sure, the coach should consult the players, but he should ultimately pick the leadership group himself. Ben Holland: Best Case Scenario: Gets a farewell game (or a couple of games in a row, injury permitting). Kicks a bag of four. Retires at years end, looked back on fondly by all. Worst Case Scenario: Know I made a rule against putting unforseen injuries as a worst case scenario, but in this case I cant really think of anything terrible happening unless its an unforseen injury that costs him his farewell game. Should get one in a year when we're not competing for a finals spot. Most Likely Scenario: Again, best case scenario is probably the most likely one. Mark Jamar: Best case scenario: Wont realistically improve. Best case scenario is that Meesen kicks on or PJ establishes himself in the ruck so that we dont need him next year. Worst case scenario: Ruck situation continues as is. Most likely scenario: Worst case scenario seems to be the most likely one, unfortunately. Chris Johnson: Best Case Scenario: Draws some real confidence from his form at Sandringham and, feeling like he finally belongs at AFL level, spends the rest of the year forging a spot in the best 22 (either as a line breaking wingman or a rebounding defender, both of which we desperately need). Worst Case Scenario: Comes back, looks lost, gets sent back to Sandringham. Traded/delisted at the end of the year. Most Likely Scenario: The worst case scenario seems more likely than the first one, but sometimes its hard to understand why. I cant point to one physical attribute that should preclude CJ from playing at AFL level, but every time he gets on the field he looks completely lost. Paul Johnson: Best Case Scenario: Continues as is, ends up as basically a somewhat better version of Ben Holland; can play in defence, ruck or the forwardline and do a competent job. Worst Case Scenario: Somehow starts to go backwards as a 3rd tall in defense, doesnt improve at all in the hitouts, and proves impotent in the forwardline. Most Likely Scenario: PJ has been one of the few positives in a dull year, for mine, and I cant see any reason why he has anywhere to go but up. I dont think he'll ever be the answer to our ruck woes, which is a massive concern, but he's definately a part of our future. Nathan Jones: Best Case Scenario: Continues what he's doing, but working hard to improve his decision making. Worst Case Scenario: Cant really think of one at the moment, I dont think we have much cause for concern with Jones. James McDonald: Best Case Scenario: Continues to play consistently solid football, plays on next year. Worst Case Scenario: Dont see him being drastically worse in the second half of the year. Worst case scenario is that he announces that this year will be his last. Most Likely Scenario: I really have no idea, heres hoping he plays on next year. With our present dearth of genuine leaders, he's a valuable commodity. Brock Mclean: Best Case Scenario: Continues to improve steadily. Becomes harder to shut down and has some good games agaist the Lings and Kirks of the league. Continues to mature as a person and as a footballer and becomes a bonafide leader. Made a stand-alone vice captain, if not captain, next year. Worst Case Scenario: Tapers off, playing the odd good game but normally being shut down like he was for most of last year. Off-field stupidity continues. Confirms that -while he'll be a decent player- he wont improve drastically from here on. Not part of next years leadership group. Most Likely Scenario: Probably somewhere in the middle. I think he will keep improving and will become harder to tag out of a game, but he wont be a bonifide superstar like alot of us hoped he would a few years back. Would be silly to speculate whether the off-field stuff will continue or not without knowing him personally, but the things he has done doesnt make him that much different to alot of other 21 year old footballers. Will be part of the leadership group next year, but probably wont quite be ready for captaincy. Brad Miller: Best Case Scenario: Continues presenting hard at CHF and proves that -while he'll never be a superstar- he'll be a solid player and a shining example on-field. Worst Case Scenario: Loses his way again. Delisted/traded or reduced to a depth player at the end of the year. Most Likely Scenario: Fingers crossed, I think Miller's finally come into his own and wont look back from here. I'm confident the best case scenario will prevail. Cale Morton: Best Case Scenario: Plays every game this year. While he'll definately have a few quiet ones (as he has the past few weeks) hopefully he plays a few blinders to remind us why we were all so excited about him earlier in the year. Worst Case Scenario: Goes a bit quiet for the rest of the year. Spends the end of the year back at Sandy. If it happened, much as I hope it doesnt, it would be understandable from a first year player whos body isnt ready for AFL football. Best Case Scenario: Cant see any reason why he wont continue to impress- he's been quiet lately, but he'll bounce back. Michael Newton: Best Case Scenario: Recovers from injury and comes back through Sandy ASAP. Absolutely dominates, kicking a bunch of goals and proving he's too good for VFL level. Spends a good chunk of the second year playing full forward for Melbourne. Works very hard to overcome his limitations re: pace and skills at ground level. By the end of the year, establishes himself as a definite AFL player, and a possible replacement for Neitz at full forward. Worst Case Scenario: Either doesnt recover from injury, or comes back and validates the concerns that he doesn have the application to be an AFL footballer. Delisted or traded (for peanuts) at years end. Most Likely Scenario: He should be back in a few weeks, and hopefully press for senior selection. Beyond that, its pretty difficult to say at this point what will happen. Ricky Petterd: Best Case Scenario: Comes back in a few weeks time. Plays the last 8 rounds or so. Starts slow, but -by years end- gets back to last years form. Is ready for a huge preseason and a big year next year. Worst Case Scenario: More or less misses the year. Struggles to readjust next year in much the same way Bartram has this year. Most Likely Scenario: Will hopefully be back in a few weeks. I dont think he'll set the world on fire, but the more games we can get into him before next year, the better. Jared Rivers: Best Case Scenario: Comes back soon. No more injuries between now and the end of the year. Worst Case Scenario: Continues to struggle with injuries. Becomes such a worry that the club looks at trading him. Most Likely Scenario: Ive given up predicting what will happen to Rivers. I hope he can get his body right, but its getting to the stage where I cant even physically envision Rivers playing an uninterrupted 12 games, let alone an uninterrupted season. Colin Sylvia: Best Case Scenario: Stays in the forwardline, and shows the same drive he showed in the Queens Birthday game, in every game for the rest of the year. Improves his kicking, and developes into a very, very good medium forward. Failing that, returns to the backline and resumes being a solid contributer. Worst Case Scenario: Continues to tease us with the odd good game amidst plenty of ordinary games, without ever playing a really *great* game. Most Likely Scenario: I've been moderately impressed with him this year in the backline, but I think they should and will leave him in the forwardline with the occasional run on the ball. Will never be a superstar, but by years end most people will at least consider him a good player. Shane Valenti: Best Case Scenario: Takes Beamers spot in the team for the rest of the year. Overcomes his obvious deficiencies re: pace and size with his skills in stoppages, establishes himself as a solid contributer for years to come. Worst Case Scenario: Doesnt overcome his deficiencies; proves too small and slow to make it as an AFL footballer. Most Likely Scenario: From what I have seen (admittedly not much; I dont see as much of Sandy as I like and he's had limited game time when he's played for the Dees) he seems to have the talent to make it at AFL level- only problem he faces is that tough, in-and-under midfielders are probably the one thing we have a wealth of, so it might be tough for him to find a place in the side, especially with Grimes coming in, who, by all reports, is very much a tough, in-and-under midfielder. Matthew Warnock: Best Case Scenario: Continues current form, cant ask much more. Worst Case Scenario: Warnock kind of flies in the face of my "be realistic" rule, because I dont think anyone realistically expected him to emerge as a possible KPD. The worst case scenario, I guess, is that his recent form -which nobody saw coming- turns out to be some kind of fluke, and he ends up tapering off and playing the same way he was at the start of the year. Most Likely Scenario: Its very hard to imagine Warnock not playing the rest of the year in red and blue- a terrific achievement for someone who was regarded by many -myself included- as an automatic delisting at the end of the year. Who knows where he will go beyond that; Im not ready to mark him down as a definite 200 gamer just yet, but if he can build on his recent form he wont do his prospects any harm. Isaac Weetra: Best, worst and most likely scenario are the same in this case. He's not a player unfortunately, and will definately be delisted. Paul Wheatley: Best Case Scenario: Has been very good this year. Hopefully it continues. Handy player, and we need a few experienced heads in a very young backline. Worst Case Scenario: Gets lost and becomes a fringe player again. Most Likely Scenario: Wheaters will be fine, and will probably make up one of the four or five experienced players to lead the team through its rebuilding phase. Matthew Whelan: Best Case Scenario: Comes back soon, suffers no more injuries this year, plays for another 2/3 years and helps groom our long list of young, budding defenders. Worst Case Scenario: Fails to get himself right. Retires at the end of the year. Most Likely Scenario: Id love nothing better than to see him get himself right. One of my favourite players to watch when he's on song, and he's a great on-field rolemodel for any young defender. Unfortunately, given his record over the last few years, I dont think its in the cards. The worst case scenario is the most likely. Jeff White: Best Case Scenario: Finds some form towards the end of the year, decides to play on for one more year next year. Worst Case Scenario: Retires at years end. Most Likely Scenario: Very hard to say. Hasnt really given any indication to the media. Here's hoping he stays on; he's well past his best, but a developing ruckman should have someone with some experience to work with. Austin Wonaeamirri: Best Case Scenario: Continues current form. Could possibly improve more this year, but if he doesnt he's still done enough to excite me. Worst Case Scenario: Tapers off towards the end of the year. Even if it happens, it'll be quite understandable and no major cause for concern. Most Likely Scenario: Will probably continue as is, but anything is possible with Aussie. Adam Yze: Best Case Scenario: Plays a fairwell game (if theres an injury or if we give a younger player a rest). Retires gracefully at years end. Worst Case Scenario: From a list perspective, the worst thing that could happen with Yze is he gains a regular spot in the team, plays most games for the rest of the year and then retires at years end. Most Likely Scenario: Will hopefully be dropped this week, and be given a farewell game at the end of the year. Have either never seen, or havnt seen enough of Cheney, Grimes, Martin, McNamara, Meesen, Zomer etc to comment, and for obvious reasons I didnt look at players who are out for the year. Also, I didnt make much of an effort to edit this, wrote it basically stream-of-conscious and, since it took a while to write, I was feeling a bit lightheaded by the time I'd finished, so yeah, sorry if some of my reasonings a bit glib, vague or just plain incoherent.

I basically agree, but I think sometimes this can work the other way as well; as in, people had such high expectations when we picked him up that when he doesn't turn out to be the star we all hoped he would be, people start saying he's done nothing and shouldnt even get a game, which isnt really true. He seems to be a pretty divisive player on here; some people think he'll be a superstar and some think he's a dud. They're both probably wrong. He had a reasonable year last year, and has been mostly solid in the backline this year- not fantastic but definitely a best 22-type. Forgetting where we picked him up in the draft and looking at him objectively just as a player, he looks like he'll be a handy footballer but no superstar. Its a shame we didn't do better with pick 3, but theres been plenty of much, much worse top ten picks.