At the break of Gawn

This is a good analysis. I think if you look at their Semi-final, they did use the ball a bit more aggressively at times. The thing is, the Giants don't do zone defence at all - they are a one-on-one side in their defence and it's been pretty good for them all year. Unfortunately though, they give up a lot of inside 50s, and so eventually when you come up against some terrific forwards who are good at one-on-ones (such as Hawkins), the damn wall eventually breaks which is what we saw last week. I don't think the Cats will move the ball as easily through Optus as they did last week due to our zone defence. I think you'll see them take less aggressive kicks. I watched some of the round 23 game last night again, and I think the fact that the game was at GMHBA had a massive influence on their ability to get on top. It's much easier to score off centre clearances, and it's also easier to get really deep entries. If you look at that period of play before they kicked those centre bounce goals, they got some decent looks from deep entries where our defenders were all one-on one. This was also from them winning at stoppage where we went one-on-one, and their pressure in the midfield (mainly from Parfitt) was huge. In the second half we put Salem a kick behind the stoppage which had a huge impact and steadied us. I think I recall Montagna highlighting this on "First Crack". He said Melbourne went even numbers at the stoppage in the first half as we were desperate to get the ball in our half of the ground as we worried about taking the ball the length of the field against Geelong. I don't why this is but someone on here may know why. I know it's been said 1000 times before already, but this game will be won and lost in the midfield. Gawn is our most important player tomorrow and he needs to dominate Stanley in the ruck and give our mids first use. Stanley played out of his skin in the first half against us in round 23, and was a big reason why they got that run on. If we get our territory game up and running and it "looks like a Melbourne game" you'll see us with repeat entries and you'll see us take easy intercepts when they try and rebound.

I’ve noticed that the media narrative this week regarding Melbourne has all been about “dare to dream” and the hope to break the 57 year drought, while for the few articles regarding Geelong and any player interviews are all about “how will you stop Melbourne?” etc. Just seems the external expectation on Melbourne is 10x that of Geelong. A silver lining in this final series for us is being in a hub and not being distracted by all the external pressure.

They are also 2-4 against top 8 sides away from GMHBA (including finals). Their record against top 8 sides this year (including finals) is 5-6. By comparison, us against top 8 sides away from the MCG this year we are 6-0 Our record against top 8 sides this year no matter what ground, is 9-2 (including finals)

It is so imperative we beat the Cats on Friday just to peg this man down a notch. He’s complained all year, made ridiculous excuses for Geelong’s performances at every turn, and made disrespectful comments such as his team didn’t care about winning because there was no home final on offer after they lost to us. Now he’s come out and bagged Larkins after scoffing at Stewart‘s extremely unlikely return from a serious lisfranc injury which at times has forced players into early retirement. Please for the good of the game, Dees - put this man back in his box. https://www.afl.com.au/news/675042/maybe-hes-an-entertainer-geelong-coach-chris-scott-on-dr-peter-larkins-tom-stewart-call

Agree. If someone brought up the match preview thread for the 2018 PF you’d seldom find many posters who were confident of a win. 2018 was all about creating a stepping stone for the future. 2021 is all about winning it.

I don’t think I’ve seen this asked yet in the thread, but if you had the choice of Cats, Dogs or Power to play in the prelim - who would you choose? I’d probably take the Cats (just). Dogs have an amazing midfield and I think Bont will play and they did beat us late in the season. Although their ruck situation is horrible, the dogs set up to lose hitouts and ended up winning the clearances easily.. Power have a heap of dangerous small forwards who could trouble us and their defence is in terrific form. I know a lot of posters are worried about Geelong, but in all honesty, I think we’ve got the softest kill if you’re comparing to the other two alternatives.

I completely understand what you are saying and it makes 100% sense. Unfortunately a flaw of the human condition is that some of us worry more about what we can’t control than what we can control. 😬

Bowey seemed a bit nervous to me on Saturday night. I still think he lacks a bit of awareness and has been caught htb a few times. I’d be bringing in Hibberd in my opinion. He’s reliable and you know exactly what you’re going to get and I think he has the smarts to play on Rohan.

Also happy to pass on my barcode. I have a grand final guarantee membership as well. Just pm me on here.

I’ve been thinking about this more today and I reckon the whole “it’s difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season” thing isn’t what it seems for this game. For the round 23 game, the Cats could almost look at that as a win for them. If it wasn’t for Dangerfield and Selwood off for most of that last qtr, I think they probably would have won. I have no doubt Goodwin would have reviewed it pretty heavily and I think we were lucky to scrape through. I also sense that Goodwin would have been preparing for the Cats even before the semi-final. He’s had two good looks at them since we beat them to prepare. Despite my MFCSS running wild, I sense that like what the Eagles did to us in the PF in ‘18, I really believe we’ll jump them early and the damage will be done before they can properly land a counter punch.

That’s a weird take by Scott. Optus stadium is very similar to Marvel and a fair bit closer to the MCG rather than GMHBA https://turfmate.com.au/boundary-sizes-to-be-reduced-at-gmhba-stadium/ Since 2018 at Optus: Melb: 2-3 Geel: 3-4 In 2021 Melb: 1-0 Geelong: 2-0

Would be 5-0 if Lions had won…

Port would be licking their lips. Those two teams played a proper final and both got banged up. Unfortunately for us, we’re playing a team who had a Sunday stroll last night with an almost standard home and away game.

I watched a Jeremy Cameron interview after the game last night where they asked him about playing Melb next week and what the round 23 game meant. He said there was lots of learnings from that game which will help them this week. I think that’s what it’ll will come down to. Who learnt the most from the round 23 game. I’m confident that Goody would have spent a lot of time on that 2nd qtr and they’ll analyse it again this week.

This may be my MFCSS running around in my head, but does Geelong have an advantage in recently play a game in Perth so they are a bit more familiar with the ground? I know we only played there 4-5 weeks ago, but I feel the fact that Cats have been in Perth the same time as us, played at Optus stadium and now have a 7 day break erodes some of the advantage we have in making the PF. I honestly think if Melbourne had been given the choice, we would have picked Adelaide Oval again.

I agree with this, but I think Rivers can take Rohan. There’s only a 1cm height difference between the two, and rivers has good wheels. I think it’s going to be: Hawkins - May Cameron - Smith Esava - Petty Rohan - Rivers Close - Lever Bowey - Miers Menegola - Salem

No way. To say that we equaled the achievement of 2018 would be a choke of the highest order. 2018 we somehow stumbled into the 8 and won two finals on a wave of momentum. We came up against an experienced and formidable opponent who had their sights set on bigger ambitions. We have barraged our way to the top of the ladder, been there longer than any other team this season, and disposed of another top 4 team with ease in a qualifying final. A loss next week would be equal to Essendon’s 1999 season. I bet you won’t find many Essendon supporters who would be proud of what they accomplished that season.

You do realise Ratugolea was dropped to play us in Rnd23. All our defenders will need to do next week is not get out marked (which they’re pretty damn good at). There’s no Charlie Camerons, or Zac Butters, or Fantasias, or Weightmans running around. We have a faster spreading and superior midfield… and they’re also still missing their best defender who glues it all together. If we can’t win next Friday, then we’re clearly not ready yet. Like the rest of you, my MFCSS is absolutely raging but I’m trying to think logically and take in some of the commentary I’ve seen from neutral supporters.

I’m surprised Scott brought in Ratugolea. Melbourne’s Achilles heel is when the ball hits the deck in our defence, but the Cats literally have no dangerous small forwards (Close is the only one but he’s only kicked about 10 goals for the year). After that performance, they’ll keep Ratugolea. The cats dominated centre clearances in rnd 23 during that 10 min period, and scored easy goals. Optus stadium isn’t as easy to score goals like that. Our only worry is Hawkins and Cameron. I expect Gawn to play a lot behind the ball next Friday to ensure Lever gets a free reign intercepting, because unfortunately Ratugolea will need to be minded.

Would have loved for the Prelim to be on a Thursday night so the Cats only get a 6 day break.

Jack was one of my favourite players but it’s obvious now he didn’t have the drive to be a truly elite footballer. Jack liked the idea of the lifestyle of an AFL footy player more so than the actual hard work that’s required to be successful at it. People will ponder things such as what if we had drafted a player like Jack 10 years later than what we did in 2008. I’d argue that we wouldn’t have because his lack of competitiveness would have been identified earlier. I’m all for our club recruiting diverse personalities, and people will always have different vices outside of footy, however when it comes to applying your trade, you have to be 100%. There would be players out there who would put more effort into their footy who are also balancing life with 3-4 kids than what Jack was doing.

Obviously I have no idea of your financial situation, but for roughly $200 to guarantee a chance to see our first premiership in 57 years…that sounds like a steal to me.

I’m not sure what it is, but I really don’t rate Port. They barely beat a top 8 side all year, we made them look like pretenders, and then they went and beat an out of form WBD to clinch 2nd spot on the ladder. Geelong played one of the worst games I’ve seen them play on Friday night. Port were good, but Geelong had a horrible night. What Port do have on their side is a home ground full with their supporters - something Melbourne won’t have in the PF

I was thinking about starting a new thread but this current topic is pretty much the same. My question: When was the last time we were unequivocally the best team left in the finals series and favourites for the flag? From my limited recollection: 2018 - Richmond/WCE the clear favourites 2002/2004/2005/2006 - Certainly not us. 2000 - Essendon hands down. 1998 - North 1994 - West Coast/Geelong 1988 - Hawks 1987 - Carlton? 1964? I’m of firm belief that this flag is ours to lose, and anyone else who wins it is the underdog.

That would be the dream scenario. Cats still worry me too.