How Chris Scott differs from other AFL coaches

[KozzyCan 385]

8 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

I’m always interested in dodgy logic and inconsistency. You’re happy to talk records and metrics but when someone points out Goody’s finals record is better then suddenly metrics aren’t good and what counts is making finals more often, even if you lose more of them..?

Cats home ground advantage gets them half way to finals every year, then they crumble an awful lot when they have to play good teams on the G (2022 obviously the exception). We’ll find out how good he really is now that Hawkins follows Selwood into retirement, and Danger can’t be far behind. 

I already explained how finals win percentage is a flawed stat, you haven't really countered that. Also compared the amount of finals qualifications for both coaches in my first post in the thread. But yes, clearly making finals is better than not making finals are you seriously contending that?

[Undeeterred 3,044]

On 21/09/2024 at 23:28, Moonshadow said:

Really? I count only about 10 or 11 really good players on that list of 45

This is what Goodwin inherited:

Primary list
1. Brayshaw, Angus
2. Bugg, Tomas
3. Dawes, Chris
4. Dunn, Lynden
5. Frost, Sam
6. Garland, Colin
7. Garlett, Jeff
8. Gawn, Max
9. Grimes, Jack
10. Harmes, James
11. Hogan, Jesse
12. Hulett, Liam
13. Hunt, Jayden
14. Jetta, Neville
15. Jones, Matt
16. Jones, Nathan
17. Kennedy, Ben
18. Kennedy-Harris, Jay
19. Kent, Dean
20. King, Mitch
21. Lumumba, Heritier
22. McDonald, Tom
23. McDonald, Oscar
24. Melksham, Jake
25. Neal-Bullen, Alex
26. Newton, Ben
27. Oliver, Clayton
28. Pedersen, Cameron
29. Petracca, Christian
30. Salem, Christian
31. Spencer, Jake
32. Stretch, Billy
33. Terlich, Dean
34. Trengove, Jack
35. Tyson, Dom
36. vandenBerg, Aaron
37. Vince, Bernie
38. Viney, Jack
39. Watts, Jack
40. Weideman, Sam
Category A rookie list
41. King, Max
42. Michie, Viv
43. Wagner, Josh
44. White, Mitch
Category B rookie list
45. Smith, Joel

Those were the days

Scary that the list before that was materially worse 

[Fromgotowoewodin 1,521]

4 minutes ago, KozzyCan said:

I already explained how finals win percentage is a flawed stat, you haven't really countered that. Also compared the amount of finals qualifications for both coaches in my first post in the thread. But yes, clearly making finals is better than not making finals are you seriously contending that?

You explained how you think it’s a flawed metric yes, because it doesn’t suit your argument. 

never said making finals isn’t better, just that Scott has it easier with the best home ground advantage in the comp. As I said we’ll find out how good he is now the last of the guns are gone, or maybe we won’t and he’ll decide it’s time to find new challenges a la Hardwick 

[von 1,498]

45 minutes ago, KozzyCan said:

Well, I mean he's still won two flags so I wouldn't say that's a portrait of mediocrity anyway.

Geelong have been thereabouts for nearly every year of his tenure, they always give themselves a chance to win.It's a pretty good position for a club to know that every year they are a very good chance of going deep into finals. As I said, flags are the pinnacle but I think we can go a bit deeper than that when we measure coaches.

Agree it's difficult to determine where the influence of a coach begins and ends but I tend to believe they are the most important figure within a football department so if we can't make a judgement on them based on results then who can we judge?

It’s not a stretch to say he inherited the first one. The second one is credit to him. Being there abouts every year doesn’t seem to be a great strategy. Especially for supporters. The last three years have been brutal. Eventually being there abouts counts for very little historically. Who cares where anyone finishes outside of first.

[KozzyCan 385]

5 minutes ago, von said:

It’s not a stretch to say he inherited the first one. The second one is credit to him. Being there abouts every year doesn’t seem to be a great strategy. Especially for supporters. The last three years have been brutal. Eventually being there abouts counts for very little historically. Who cares where anyone finishes outside of first.

Not a stretch, no. But a bit of hindsight there too. I remember 2010, Ablett and Thompson leaving, most thought the Cats were on the slide and Collingwood were destined to be the next dynasty. Scott came into a good side but he didn't screw it up and has reinvented them twice over since.

[KozzyCan 385]

11 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

You explained how you think it’s a flawed metric yes, because it doesn’t suit your argument. 

never said making finals isn’t better, just that Scott has it easier with the best home ground advantage in the comp. As I said we’ll find out how good he is now the last of the guns are gone, or maybe we won’t and he’ll decide it’s time to find new challenges a la Hardwick 

Do you disagree with my assessment. Do you think having a slightly better finals winrate is more impressive than making prelims almost every year? Fair enough if you do but I stand by what I said.

Think the Cats home ground advantage is a bit of a cop out. They won more games away from home than they did at Geelong this year, plus they play fewer home games at their actual home ground than any other side.

[Fromgotowoewodin 1,521]

4 minutes ago, KozzyCan said:

Think the Cats home ground advantage is a bit of a cop out. They won more games away from home than they did at Geelong this year, plus they play fewer home games at their actual home ground than any other side.

They also only won 15 games, which wouldn’t have got them top 4 in 2022 or 2023, Brisbane made top 4 in 2021 with 15 wins but much better %. 

Over his time he’s had the best home ground advantage which means more wins, better ladder position, more top 8 finishes, more top 4 finishes, more prelims but not more finals wins or more flags than Goody because they don’t get to play on the Kardina Park soccer pitch, they get found out a lot.. or maybe they just get gastro, or covid, or dengue fever or something and he’d have a better finals % otherwise 

[layzie 32,854]

15 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

They also only won 15 games, which wouldn’t have got them top 4 in 2022 or 2023, Brisbane made top 4 in 2021 with 15 wins but much better %. 

Over his time he’s had the best home ground advantage which means more wins, better ladder position, more top 8 finishes, more top 4 finishes, more prelims but not more finals wins or more flags than Goody because they don’t get to play on the Kardina Park soccer pitch, they get found out a lot.. or maybe they just get gastro, or covid, or dengue fever or something and he’d have a better finals % otherwise 

I didn't rate them much for this reason. They had an amazing 7-0 start to the season and then went on to beat 1 top 8 side. That's even with the home games they had.

Decent side but a fraction off the 2022 version, just goes to show how valuable banking wins early on is. 

[Dr. Mubutu 764]

43 minutes ago, KozzyCan said:

Think the Cats home ground advantage is a bit of a cop out. They won more games away from home than they did at Geelong this year, plus they play fewer home games at their actual home ground than any other side.

Only because the AFL move them to bigger grounds against the 'big 4'.
Carlton last played at Kardinia in 2020.
Richmond hadn't played there for 7 years before this year.
Essendon only played a non-COVID game there for the first time since 1993 last year (EDIT: it was still 28 years between games for them).
Collingwood last played there in Round 15, 1999.

Edited yesterday at 04:49 by Dr. Mubutu

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,497]

On 21/09/2024 at 08:01, djr said:

A different Cat: How Chris Scott differs from other AFL coaches

This is an interesting article written by the well respected Jake Niall from the Age. In his article, Jake delves into what differentiates the long-serving Scott from coaches at rival clubs. He mentions Melbourne a few times on how certain incidents would have been handled differently. An example is when he quotes a past player saying that the Petracca saga would never have happened at Geelong.

I come away thinking that Goody does possess a number of these traits and believe he is the right person that can follow in Scott's footsteps. The big concern, sadly, is the stark difference in the administrations.

I can copy and paste the article but am not sure whether I am allowed to.

Goody with a strong Board and - for me - one more left-field thinker and strong opinion assistant, would be a very similar level coach to BS -- Possesses similar temperament but hasn't yet shown a recent ability to adapt a gameplan year to year but more on a 2yr swing so next year should show us where he is at assuming he gets 90% doing 90% of pre-season.

[binman 41,963]

Don't get me wrong, i think all three are excellent coaches, but in terms of assessing the coaching records of Fagan, Scott and Longmire, i think a relevant data point to consider is their home grounds.

The GABBA, Taxpayer Park and the SCG are strange grounds in terms of dimensions, and in the case of the GABBA also prevailing conditions (the lions play almost all of their games up there at night, when it is frequently humid and slippery).  

As evidenced by their respective home ground records, particularly that of the lions, the Lions, Cats and Swans, unsurprisingly, play well at home and have very real home ground advantage.

That advantage puts all three clubs in the box seat to at least make finals every year and the sustained success of all three clubs in terms of making finals is not surprising.

[KozzyCan 385]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Mubutu said:

Only because the AFL move them to bigger grounds against the 'big 4'.
Carlton last played at Kardinia in 2020.
Richmond hadn't played there for 7 years before this year.
Essendon only played a non-COVID game there for the first time since 1993 last year (EDIT: it was still 28 years between games for them).
Collingwood last played there in Round 15, 1999.

Yep. Cats should play all their home games there imo.

[FreedFromDesire 637]

18 minutes ago, binman said:

Don't get me wrong, i think all three are excellent coaches, but in terms of assessing the coaching records of Fagan, Scott and Longmire, i think a relevant data point to consider is their home grounds.

The GABBA, Taxpayer Park and the SCG are strange grounds in terms of dimensions, and in the case of the GABBA also prevailing conditions (the lions play almost all of their games up there at night, when it is frequently humid and slippery).  

As evidenced by their respective home ground records, particularly that of the lions, the Lions, Cats and Swans, unsurprisingly, play well at home and have very real home ground advantage.

That advantage puts all three clubs in the box seat to at least make finals every year and the sustained success of all three clubs in terms of making finals is not surprising.

You could argue though, conversely, they're at a disadvantage for half their games as every other ground would then seem "strange" to them. What are the dimensions "strange" in relation to as well? The MCG?

I think this argument doesn't give enough credit to how well those clubs are run and just how good those coaches are, in different ways.

[KozzyCan 385]

17 minutes ago, binman said:

Don't get me wrong, i think all three are excellent coaches, but in terms of assessing the coaching records of Fagan, Scott and Longmire, i think a relevant data point to consider is their home grounds.

The GABBA, Taxpayer Park and the SCG are strange grounds in terms of dimensions, and in the case of the GABBA also prevailing conditions (the lions play almost all of their games up there at night, when it is frequently humid and slippery).  

As evidenced by their respective home ground records, particularly that of the lions, the Lions, Cats and Swans, unsurprisingly, play well at home and have very real home ground advantage.

That advantage puts all three clubs in the box seat to at least make finals every year and the sustained success of all three clubs in terms of making finals is not surprising.

This argument would be more convincing if those teams struggled when away from their home grounds. Lions the only one of them who have really struggled at the MCG but even they have overcome that in the last couple of years.

Our own record at the MCG under Goodwin is pretty ordinary. It might even be <50%. We're more reliable away from home than at the MCG. A bit of an oddity in my time watching Melbourne.

[Dr. Mubutu 764]

1 hour ago, von said:

It’s not a stretch to say he inherited the first one. The second one is credit to him. Being there abouts every year doesn’t seem to be a great strategy. Especially for supporters. The last three years have been brutal. Eventually being there abouts counts for very little historically. Who cares where anyone finishes outside of first.

He 100% inherited the first one.

In looking at other things, I saw that the Cats won by a total of 336 points over two weeks in Scott's first season at the helm.

[58er 5,950]

2 hours ago, von said:

It’s not a stretch to say he inherited the first one. The second one is credit to him. Being there abouts every year doesn’t seem to be a great strategy. Especially for supporters. The last three years have been brutal. Eventually being there abouts counts for very little historically. Who cares where anyone finishes outside of first.

Ridiculous comment Von.

who cares where you finish if you don’t win the flag?

Just think about your comment.  2nd or 10th or 18th???

Of course fans care probably 80/90%. 

Enough said you are either just saying it or I really can’t understand your logic. 

[binman 41,963]

2 hours ago, FreedFromDesire said:

You could argue though, conversely, they're at a disadvantage for half their games as every other ground would then seem "strange" to them. What are the dimensions "strange" in relation to as well? The MCG?

I think this argument doesn't give enough credit to how well those clubs are run and just how good those coaches are, in different ways.

Fair point about playing away, at least for the swans and lions, but more about the travel involved than playing at less idiosyncratic grounds.

(By the by, i don't think its a coincidence that since Kardinia park has become less idiosyncratic with the stands reducing the impact of the prevailing wind, the cats record has not been as good there).

As I said, I rate all three coaches very highly.

And I 100% agree all three clubs are super well run - which by the by is a huge benefit all three coaches enjoy, and arguably goody doesn't (making his very impressive record even more meritorious).

But the home ground record of all three clubs in the period Fagan, Scott and longmire have coached  means all three start each season with a solid block of likely wins (again particularly fagan as the lions have won something crazy like 90% of their home games since he has been coach).

And therefore all three clubs are excellent chance of making finals each year. 

Edited 21 hours ago by binman

[FreedFromDesire 637]

1 minute ago, binman said:

Fair point about playing away, at least for the swans and lions, but more about the travel involved than playing at less idiosyncratic grounds.

(By the by, i don't as Kardinia park has become less idiosyncratic with the stands reducing the impact of the prevailing wind, the cats record  has not been as great there. 

As I said, I rate all threeidiosyncratic coaches very highly.

And I 100% agree all three clubs are super well run - which by the by is a huge benefit all three coaches enjoy, and arguably goody doesn't (making his very impressive record even more meritorious).

But the home ground record of all three clubs in the period Fagan, Scott and longmire have coached  means all three start each season with a solid block of likely wins (again particularly fagan as the lions have won something crazy like 90% of their home games since he has been coach) and therefore all three clubs are excellent chance of making finals each year. 

It's definitely a very interesting point.

Without having data directly in front of me, it seems since say 2019 we have been perhaps shaky at best at our own home ground and generally better away. I know Adelaide Oval has been a happy hunting ground for us compared to other teams. I wonder how much is a game style issue and how much is 'general coaching'? 

Definitely agree that Goodwin, like most former Demon coaches, starts at a disadvantage given the full contextual situation of our club. I often wonder if perhaps, like players, it's slightly harder to attract the best coaches and staff to our club with the lack of financials and connections we have compared to the genuinely big clubs, and of course the split training, base, administration setup as well? I very much think modern coaching is done by committee, despite how much pressure inevitably is directed at the head coach, and question whether Goodwin has always had the best available as part of his team.

[Engorged Onion 10,135]

If we transpose this into the EPL -can you imagine for example , Arsenal, Tottenham Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Fulham, Brentford and West Ham, all playing out of Wembley... and all other teams getting their own home ground advantage...

Brighton can be Geelong... by the seaside etc etc...

It's a little bit hilarious...

There is so much nuance in this topic dependent on your point of view.

Do you take on board home ground advantage/disadvantage?

What about the abilty to recruit players? Does that influence the coaching aspect of coaching?

Are Premierships are the only thing that matters, not finishing position?

Did you under or over perform dependent on supporters expectations of the year?

Did you win the premiership and thus expected a dynasty by some, and thus under performed?

Are you good chat in the pressers? 😎

 

 

 

 

Edited 21 hours ago by Engorged Onion

[binman 41,963]

2 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

This argument would be more convincing if those teams struggled when away from their home grounds. Lions the only one of them who have really struggled at the MCG but even they have overcome that in the last couple of years.

Our own record at the MCG under Goodwin is pretty ordinary. It might even be <50%. We're more reliable away from home than at the MCG. A bit of an oddity in my time watching Melbourne.

The relative form of the lions, cats and swans away from their respective home grounds isn't particularly relevant in terms of negating the fact, as evidenced by their win loss ratio over say the last 10 seasons, that all three clubs enjoy a clear home ground advantage.

But for the sake of argument, let's say it is relevant.

All three clubs' records away from home would statistically be way worse than their records at home.

That's to say, relative to their form at home they struggle playing away.

Which supports not negates the argument they have a home ground advantage.

Further, im guessing that two of the three clubs, and perhaps all three (not sure about the swans), despite being finalists most years, are underwater (ie less than 50%)  in terms of win loss ratio at the g in the last decade. 

Take the cats.

Up until their flag in 2022 they had made finals in multiple years, and made the gf in 2020, yet could not win a flag.

It was widely discussed that a potential factor in going all the way was not being able to translate the method they used at KP to the more spacious MCG.

[von 1,498]

7 hours ago, 58er said:

Ridiculous comment Von.

who cares where you finish if you don’t win the flag?

Just think about your comment.  2nd or 10th or 18th???

Of course fans care probably 80/90%. 

Enough said you are either just saying it or I really can’t understand your logic. 

Fans don’t seem to love getting bundled out in finals anymore than finishing in the bottom half. This place is evidence of that. Where you finish is relevant within some contexts, 2nd, 10th or 18th can mean different things at different times, but in ten years time it won’t mean a thing to anyone unless you won the flag.