POSTGAME: Rd 15 vs Geelong

[DeelightfulPlay 2,296]

9 hours ago, layzie said:

Exactly, it's much easier to be in camp A or camp B. No-one is going to argue with someone over it being 30% of a factor while the other only thinks it's 5%. Although if anyone is thinking of starting another argument about this that would be a cool one to try out. 

Well one camp must be a 'load' of [censored], unless we get into the nuance of it 😋

(Disclaimer: this poster believes in loading and is agnostic about the percentage of a factor it is)

Edited June 27, 2023 by DeelightfulPlay
Turns out an anagram for carp is censored...!

[binman 39,206]

11 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Is this directed at me? Is there anything particular about my post above or view on this issue that you think is foolish? I’ve tried my best to explain myself here. 

No it wasn't @titan_uranus - all good. I hadn't read your post when i posted it.

It was just in my head - sort of. In fact, i had been thinking about the quote, there are none so blind as those who won't see (or whatever it is) the previous night and when i googled it on the bus to work this morning, i landed on the bible quote because apparently that is where it originated from. And I liked the biblical vibe of it. 

I did however get a bit of a laugh you noting the word foolish, because that made me laugh when i read the quote - a bible sledge!

I just read your post .Well reasoned and good points, well made.

On the topic of evidence, i think there is heaps of compelling evidence - i just cant be bothered pulling it together (but if you go back to this time last year, and in 2021, there is heaps).

In my view, eventually the clubs will stop the silly charade and just start talking about it - Scott, Hardwick and goody and some recently retired footballers in the media (eg Jobe Watson) have been intimating already about it. 

Personally, i find the post bye results this year pretty compelling evidence.

As a footy punter I'm always looking for value. So i am attuned to opportunities for value. 

A classic example was the round just gone - i had a monster weekend on the back of correctly predicting the Suns and Freo would be completely different teams in their second post bye game  (and i also backed the lions, who were well overs because of their average post bye performance against the hawks - when they they had no run in their legs). Chalk and cheese.

Take Freo - they were way too short at 1.72. They were only that price because of how woeful they were post bye against the Giants.

I watched that game, and you don't need to be sports scientist to see they had no run at all. You could see it. The commentators could too - but just made general comments about their lack of energy.

I mean it was clear as day - just as it was in the Lions v Hawks game and the Suns' previous game. The pattern is very clear. It is all about fatigue. But no media people made any comment about that obvious fact. Instead they just bagged the dockers, with no context.

And so freo's price against the bombers was soft because many punters don't know to factor in fatigue (why would they if they just listen to the media?). The dockers ran all over the top of the bombers (who were coming off the bye) - exactly as i thought they would. And my bet they would cover their -5 point line was never in doubt. 

This year has been even better for value.

All teams are now implementing faster transition football, which means even the non contenders have to do a heavy block (i think at least 3 weeks, but that's a guess) of training to make sure they have enough run in their legs at the end of the season and not get smashed (West Coast have a lot of problems. One of their biggest is they are nowhere near AFL fit, and so teams are just running rings round them).

This year, all teams have been cooked post bye and there is value to be had (but a warning - i don't think there will be as much value this week because of all the talk of the post bye funk - that chat might even create some value on line bets the other way).  

But just to be clear, as i have noted on any number of occasions, i think, like every team in the AFL (including the Pies - in fact i think they have bigger concerns than us), there are a number of issues of concern.

The key concern i have is the second genuine tall forward role. A lot is riding on BB's fitness in my opinion. I had exactly the same concern last year about Tmac - and that was before he got injured. 

I predicted a loss last week. And i also predicted it would be a dour, scrappy game and we wouldn't play that well. I was right. Lucky? Maybe - but i don't think so. 

Here's another prediction.

We will look a different team on Sunday. And we will absolutely smash the Giants (who are coming off a bye). 

Lots of punters will mark us down becuase of our performance against the Cats (the pros won't be). That is the perfect recipe for value.

The line is currently -19.5. That is way too short.

Money for old rope.

Go redlegs. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by binman

[Binmans PA 26,592]

7 minutes ago, binman said:

But just to be clear, as i have noted on any number of occasions i think, like every team in the AFL (including the Pies - in fact i think they have bigger concerns than us), there are a number of issues of concern.

Binners, I'd like to zero in on this point.

I believe Collingwood's system as it stands is very susceptible to pressure and turnover. I know you agree.

Is this what you're referencing above or in your view, do they have other issues?

[binman 39,206]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Binners, I'd like to zero in on this point.

I believe Collingwood's system as it stands is very susceptible to pressure and turnover. I know you agree.

Is this what you're referencing above or in your view, do they have other issues?

Yes, that's def one of them. Very much so in fact - and our win against them was excellent evidence of that issue (eg take the corridor away and they are in trouble)

Without going into detail (i'll come back to it), the concerns for the Pies, in my opinion, are, in no particular order:

• They have excellent defenders (i would love Quanor), but their defensive system is a worry (it was interesting that they used a goal keeper this week - i suspect in part becuase of fatigue, but perhaps they are changing their system a bit)
• As result, teams are always in it against them 
• They rely on too much on Pendles, Sidebottom, Nick Daicos, and to lesser extent Josh Daicos, for their method to work
• There is an incredible amount of expectation on them for a team that has achieved nothing - they lost 2 of 3 finals last year (both in part due to defensive lapses), and as dees fans know home and away wins count for nothing
• On the above point - a thought experiment. If the Pies don't win the flag this year is it a failure? 
• This season they have been beaten by 2 of 3 of the other real contenders (us and the Lions)
• Their mid and ruck stocks are thin
• Their game plan is even more reliant on optimal fitness than ours (an issue exacerbated by their defensive issues)
• Their jumper
• Their forward line

Edited June 27, 2023 by binman

[D4Life 2,307]

On 6/25/2023 at 8:13 PM, binman said:

Dazzler, i haven't been true to my word as stayed out of the loading discussion this year. I'm trying though. Why?

Because of posts like the one above.

To be perfectly honest, i find comments like 'If you think there isn't far more pressing concerns other then your 'loading' fantasy then you're delusional once again. Bit like last year' flat out insulting (as i assume most would).

But leaving aside the puerile insults (which by in large i think you would agree i don't stoop to), i'm thoroughly over having my words and opinions on this topic being completely misrepresented.

There a million such examples in the last 3 seasons when this discussion comes up - the making excuses and some promise to win the flag  being the two most common variants. But this is yet another example (i mean who would think this, for all the reasons you point out - how stupid do yo think i am?) :  

• The fact that you genuinely think that the cats the just clicked their fingers and realised that all those years it was all just due to loading is a [censored] take from your end.

What really frustrates me is that i am hesitant to make a point, or post, about the impact of faitgue from loading, and hope to have some sort of nuanced discussion about it, for fear of being ridiculed and howled down by posters for whom the tipic seems to trigger some sort of irrational angst. 

But that's where we are. 

 

 

Unfortunately at times people hear what they want to hear, and see what they want to see. No amount of proof, logic, stats, facts, sound bites etc. will matter.

Injuries killed the end of 2022 for us, and no injuries worked for us in 2021, plus loading kicked into our performance levels at the back end of the season and finals! Injury is the biggest factor, Moore and or Nick Daicos go down for the Pies and their flag hopes would be significantly reduced, in fact if both were out they would be done!

The query I have on loading is when you play other teams who should also be loading e.g. Cats, Port, Freo, Pies in the last 5/6 weeks can we still use loading as an excuse? I know we beat the Pies, kicked it away against Freo, stopped to a walk against Cats, and had Oliver been fit might have got home against Port. Also home town umpiring in the last helped Port & the Cats.

Other issues apparent:

- JVR well managed will suffice at CHF or FF but we definitely need one of BBB/Petty/TMac to get up & going.

- Our forwards are playing too often from behind, not leading enough, and when they lead those leads need to be rewarded.

- Oliver fit.

- Tomlinson back shored up the defensive structure, Lever looked miles better. So seems like either Tomo or Petty must go back.

- Bowey needs to play.

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by D4Life
Added points

[Binmans PA 26,592]

40 minutes ago, binman said:

Yes, that's def one of them. Very much so in fact - and our win against them was excellent evidence of that issue (eg take the corridor away and they are in trouble)

Without going into detail (i'll come back to it), the concerns for the Pies, in my opinion, are, in no particular order:

• They have excellent defenders (i would love Quanor), but their defensive system is a worry (it was interesting that they used a goal keeper this week - i suspect in part becuase of fatigue, but perhaps they are changing their system a bit)
• As result, teams are always in it against them 
• They rely on too much on Pendles, Sidebottom, Nick Daicos, and to lesser extent Josh Daicos, for their method to work
• There is an incredible amount of expectation on them for a team that has achieved nothing - they lost 2 of 3 finals last year (both in part due to defensive lapses), and as dees fans know home and away wins count for nothing
• On the above point - a thought experiment. If the Pies don't win the flag this year is it a failure? 
• This season they have been beaten by 2 of 3 of the other real contenders (us and the Lions)
• Their mid and ruck stocks are thin
• Their game plan is even more reliant on optimal fitness than ours (an issue exacerbated by their defensive issues)
• Their jumper
• Their forward line

I'd rate their forwardline roughly on par with ours, otherwise I agree with the rest.

As for the thought experiment, it's a great one. I think they'd want to make some tweaks, but I reckon they'd basically go again next year. But Pendles and Sidebottom are getting long in the tooth, so it brings further heat onto the Daicos boys.

[beelzebub 22,542]

Fmd... we have no forward line.  That infers construct. 

We DO have 6 players often named as such. Matters not.

There's no distinguishable forward craft. 

Some compare our front to Collingwood..or anyone.   My god get a grip... they have purpose.  

If anyone cares to defend/argue the point...please, and i dont mind, describe our forward game...its methods...use of players etc.

Happy to be educated 

[bush demon 1,920]

On 6/24/2023 at 12:45 PM, 640MD said:

Just a point

if Rohan had been a Melb player

how many weeks would he have received 

duty of care should apply no matter that you are on the same side 

concussion in 10 years time will not care who hit Cameron 

high , reckless , feet off the ground , player off for two weeks 

That is a very good point. At the very least, the intention of the Geelong player is to make heavy contact. So he has responsibility or duty of care for what follows. 

[binman 39,206]

9 hours ago, D4Life said:

Unfortunately at times people hear what they want to hear, and see what they want to see. No amount of proof, logic, stats, facts, sound bites etc. will matter.

Injuries killed the end of 2022 for us, and no injuries worked for us in 2021, plus loading kicked into our performance levels at the back end of the season and finals! Injury is the biggest factor, Moore and or Nick Daicos go down for the Pies and their flag hopes would be significantly reduced, in fact if both were out they would be done!

The query I have on loading is when you play other teams who should also be loading e.g. Cats, Port, Freo, Pies in the last 5/6 weeks can we still use loading as an excuse? I know we beat the Pies, kicked it away against Freo, stopped to a walk against Cats, and had Oliver been fit might have got home against Port. Also home town umpiring in the last helped Port & the Cats.

Other issues apparent:

- JVR well managed will suffice at CHF or FF but we definitely need one of BBB/Petty/TMac to get up & going.

- Our forwards are playing too often from behind, not leading enough, and when they lead those leads need to be rewarded.

- Oliver fit.

- Tomlinson back shored up the defensive structure, Lever looked miles better. So seems like either Tomo or Petty must go back.

- Bowey needs to play.

 

100% agree with those issues.

On JVR, we have come to rely on him very quickly. That's a worry - he's only 19 after all.

Bowey is important, in large part because he is an elite kick, and we need every good kick we have playing. Still too many turnovers - which by the by was a key factor on the loss because the cats out scored us on turnover.

And you've hit the nail on the head. Injury is the key determinant. Always was, always will be.

Just look at the impact of no Oliver against the cats. 

Oliver's injury and hospital stay is also a major concern because not only has he missed normal training, he has missed at least 10 days of opportunity to load (which was what the post Pies running was about- load management). The margins are so small, he has lost condition already.i suspect they will have to put him thru a mini preseason to get him right for the back end of the season (one reason why he likely won't play this week, and I predict next week either).

Tmac is still 4-6 weeks away, so even if BB comes back in, and is injury free, we are in trouble if jvr got injured. 

Or God forbid max. 

Such is nick daicos' importance to the way the pies play, I seriously doubt they could win the flag if he got injured and was out of say the finals. 

 

[binman 39,206]

10 hours ago, A F said:

I'd rate their forwardline roughly on par with ours, otherwise I agree with the rest.

As for the thought experiment, it's a great one. I think they'd want to make some tweaks, but I reckon they'd basically go again next year. But Pendles and Sidebottom are getting long in the tooth, so it brings further heat onto the Daicos boys.

I wasnt comparing our forward line with theirs.

But for the sake of argument, if you take out their win against the Eagles (120 points) and roos (105 points), they haven't scored more than 100 points since round 9, when we also last did against the hawks. And prior to thst we had easily outscored them. 

In fact, despite the pies having won 3 more games than us and having now played the easy beats (and all the same teams we have), we have still scored 24 more points than the pies well past the halfway mark of the season.

Impossible then to argue their forward line is better.

But I'm sure some dees fan will.

Because apparently the pies are better at everything.

On the thought experiment, what I was driving at is that in no universe is not winning a flag at this stage of their development a failure.

The rampant 2018 tigers side, who entered the finals series at 1.80 to win the flag, yes, not winning the flag was a failure. But the 2023 pies are not the 2018 tigers going for back to back flags.

Again, they lost 2 of 3 finals last year, having been in the wilderness since losing the  2018 GF.

But the expectation on the pies from the media is iver the top And the vibe is not winning the flag this year would be a failure. Surely that heaps massive pressure on the players, none of whom have had any real success. And certainly no experience dealing with the pressure of expectation or being the hunted not the hunters.

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by binman

[Macca 16,174]

13 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Fmd... we have no forward line.  That infers construct. 

We DO have 6 players often named as such. Matters not.

There's no distinguishable forward craft. 

Some compare our front to Collingwood..or anyone.   My god get a grip... they have purpose.  

If anyone cares to defend/argue the point...please, and i dont mind, describe our forward game...its methods...use of players etc.

Happy to be educated 

Overall our forward line is a weakness as compared to 2 of the other phases (backline & midfield) ... but when those 2 other phases show stellar form, the opportunities for our forwards has better quality entries (and lots of entries)

Where we were expected to standout was the Gawn/Grundy combo (remembering that we went with a similar combo in the premiership year - Jackson & Gawn) so there's real room for improvement with the current combo

So we could easily add Brown soon enough but both Brown & JVR play deep forward (full forward) ... so can 1 of them play CHF?  I'd be tempted to go with JVR at CHF just to see if it can work (currently CHF is  weakness)

Petty to stay back where he is most comfortable.  No spot for Smith with the could-be Brown inclusion

Fritsch is always going to be the opportunist but our small forwards (and Gawn) need to start performing

But we still need to add talent to the forward line in the off-season

Edited June 28, 2023 by Macca

[dino rover 645]

On 6/23/2023 at 12:28 PM, YearOfTheDees said:

Smith does lead and is ignored for some reason. Noticed during the Kings Birthday game he was getting clear but they still kicked to a pack.

It takes a while for a fwd to both time their lead and develop the confidence of the  kicker that the kick isn’t wasted on them 

kickers IMO tend to kick to what they perceive as a secure receiver and maybe smith as the new boy on the block doesn’t demand the ball enough