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Caroline Wilson fancies us this season.

John Crow Batty
in Melbourne Demons

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Every year the bookies have it severely wrong on a team and this year it might be Richmond. 

Last year they played hawks, carlton port, essendon, west coast twice. This was 9 of their 13 wins. 

As a team on decline (after a great dynasty) they were still good enough to beat the younger sides. But against the top teams they dont have all the bases covered. 

1 year on, harder draw,  weaker sides are stronger and sorry not enough A-listers coming through.  They may squeeze into the eight but they are 1 or 2 injuries away from 7-15. 

 

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    5 hours ago, FlashInThePan said:

    The ridiculous mythology that the media generated about practicing to win close games will be shown to just be Lady Luck playing her hand.

    Yeah they were lucky eleven times

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    3 hours ago, Orion said:

    Yeah they were lucky eleven times

    Yes, they were. The same way that port we’re lucky a few years ago. But don’t make this about opinion just read the data:  https://www.statsinsider.com.au/news/like-it-or-not-a-close-afl-game-really-is-a-coin-flip

     And then realise that every team practices end game scenarios. That’s right, every team. It just suited the media to hype up the narrative that Collingwood were doing something special and that was why they were winning all their close games.

     Hey, who knows, they might win some close ones this year too. Stats tend to pick trends over time reasonably well and individual outcomes less well. But over time their ratio of winning close games will regress to the mean.

    More importantly they came out of nowhere with a run and gun game plan that people didn’t take seriously and that worked super well for them, combined with a fair bit of luck. As I said in my earlier post, let’s see how that game plan does when people put some energy into stopping it.

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    If the last 12 seasons are anything to go by, then one of Richmond or Bulldogs will miss the 8.

    Ever since 2011, at least one of the previous year’s elimination final losers goes on to miss the finals the next year.

    Essendon have been a chief culprit in that department.

    Kind of have a feeling it might be Richmond that misses.

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    Richmond had one of the softest draws in the comp in 2022.

    They still managed to lose to Norff and a struggling Port side.

     

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    A lot of people are bullish on Richmond, in some ways I see why but I can't help but think they are a one or two genuine players short. Especially up forward with Castagnia gone and the style they play.

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    The media is corporate so they will always give a leg up to the big clubs with huge supporter bases that buy papers and subscribe to sports channels. Its all about money . Carlton Collingwood  Richmond.

    The only reason Essendon is ignored is because theyre a basket case. If they come good this season watch how fast the media jump on the wagon.

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    3 hours ago, layzie said:

    A lot of people are bullish on Richmond, in some ways I see why but I can't help but think they are a one or two genuine players short. Especially up forward with Castagnia gone and the style they play.

    Cant stand ya, Castagnia...

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