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Posted (edited)

Round 16, 2022 Adelaide Oval - Crows vs Demons

Tracc is back!  Pips Clarry at the statistical post this week.

Let's take a look at how he got there...

24 effectives @ 73% efficiency, 1 contested mark, 2 marks inside 50, 5 clearances, 2 rebound 50s, 6 inside 50s, 6 tackles,  the most score involvements on the night with 11, two intercepts, one tackle inside 50, 451 meters gaines, 3 goals and only 3 turnovers.

I heard the SEN (SA) commentators waxing lyrical about how many tackles Berry made during the match.  He did have a huge tally of 13.  However there was no mention of Clarry at any stage who matched him with his own massive tackle count of 13.

The two Browns fired hitting the scoreboard with two goals a piece.  Lingers best game (statistically) since Rnd 8 vs the Saints where he scored a season high 6.10 (coming second just behind Clarry in that match's rankings).

Top 5 meters gained for the MFC:  May 536, Langdon 532, Lever 495, Salem 453 & Tracc with 451.  The most for both clubs on the night was Dawson with 649.

Player Score Rank
C Petracca 6.475 1
C Oliver 6.325 2
Ed Langdon 4.700 3
Steven May 4.425 4
Jake Lever 4.050 5
C Salem 3.300 6
J Jordon 2.975 7
A Brayshaw 2.900 8
Alex N-Bullen 2.900 8
Jake Bowey 2.850 10
T Sparrow 2.775 11
S Weideman # 2.325 12
K Pickett 2.250 13
C Spargo 2.200 14
H Petty 2.100 15
J Harmes 2.075 16
Jack Viney 2.050 17
Ben Brown 1.925 18
M Hibberd 1.750 19
M Brown # 1.625 20
B Fritsch 1.300 21
T Bedford 0.800 22
Team Score 64.08  
Top 6 29.28  
Bottom 6 9.45  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Posted (edited)

Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 16, 2022 vs H&A Season 2021

Most of the top 10 are tracking very nicely and either slightly above their 2021 averages with Jordan, Viney and Jackson showing a significant improvement on last season's output.  Langdon's recent form is looking very promising (touch wood).

Unfortunately all genuine forwards, bar Spargo, are way off their 2021 averages or marginally so in the case of BBB & Fritsch.  Not taking much notice of Sam's big percentage jump as it's off a very low base in 2021.  Ranking wise he hasn't moved anywhere on last season's result.

Lever is slowly bridging the gap on his 2021 form while Harmes appears to be struggling a little with consistency post his return from the hamstring issue.  Salem tracking quite well since his return.

Player 2022 Score 2022 Rank 2021 Score % Change vs 2021 2021 Rank Change in Rank vs 2021
C Oliver 5.505 1 5.258 4.70 1 0
C Petracca 4.295 2 4.041 6.29 2 0
Steven May 4.073 3 3.926 3.74 3 0
Jack Viney 4.069 4 3.171 28.32 8 4
A Brayshaw 3.780 5 2.836 33.29 12 7
C Salem 3.656 6 3.879 -5.75 4 -2
Ed Langdon 3.458 7 3.092 11.84 9 2
Max Gawn # 3.369 8 3.439 -2.04 7 -1
L Jackson # 3.238 9 2.355 37.49 21 12
J Jordon 3.117 10 2.908 7.19 10 0
J Harmes 3.076 11 3.520 -12.61 6 -5
Jake Lever 3.038 12 3.661 -17.02 5 -7
T Sparrow 3.029 13 2.023 49.73 28 15
L Dunstan 3.025 14 - - - -
Jake Bowey 2.992 15 2.881 3.85 11 -4
Alex N-Bullen 2.921 16 2.388 22.32 19 3
T Rivers 2.438 17 2.658 -8.28 13 -4
T Bedford 2.274 18 - - - -
C Spargo 2.142 19 2.068 3.58 27 8
H Petty 2.114 20 2.086 1.34 26 6
Joel Smith 1.957 21 1.375 42.33 32 11
K Pickett 1.954 22 2.378 -17.83 20 -2
T McDonald # 1.939 23 2.516 -22.93 15 -8
J Hunt 1.927 24 2.597 -25.80 14 -10
A Tomlinson 1.925 25 2.475 -22.22 16 -9
Bayley Fritsch 1.857 26 2.155 -13.83 25 -1
S Weideman # 1.747 27 1.055 65.59 27 0
Ben Brown # 1.577 28 1.855 -14.99 30 2
Mitch Brown 1.550 29 2.475 -37.37 16 -13
J Melksham 1.433 30 1.853 -22.67 31 1
D Turner>* TOG 49% 1.200 31 - - - -
Average Team Score - Top 22 69.52   67.23 3.41    

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match...not an average score

> Subbed out

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Posted (edited)

Round 17, 2022 GMHBA - Cats vs Demons

While we started off pretty well, seeing May start to fumble, drop marks and run under the ball i thought to myself "hello, hello, what's all this then!?"  From there a few others caught the same fumble bumble disease and slowly but surely we started turning the ball over and gifting the opp a few cheapies.

Got to give it to the Cats though, they also pressured us well around the ball, won their own fair share and had 20 more inside 50s.

Better than us on the high press (harder/longer) and also punished us more often on the turnover.  Method of entry i50 was a level above ours tonight.  They use the spaces well and to their advantage to seek out potential loose receivers in fairly high percentage places.

We've had many matches to work on getting something going with our own forward half play but so far a fail since Macca went down.  You just won't win (defend!) against many teams scoring 8 or 9 goals very often.  Even 10.  You need at least 11 or 12 minimum as we witnessed from the Cats tonight, kicking 12 goals 19 behinds.

Is it time for Goody to take the mantle and start changing things up with how we deliver coming inside and present / work when leading up to those delivering!??  Also wish BB would stop playing from behind so often.  All forwards if you see your fellow player/s under the pump coming through the middle or on the wing, FCS try and at least get front position and be there for the bail out / dump kick under pressure.  Why would you attempt to sit back in the hole in such a high pressure game unless players up the field were on a roll and gifting you a stack of repeat deep entries!??  Ok so leave one player deep eg Kozzy for the over the back crumb or goose.

I think it's super important Goody does step in for a major attempt to tweak if we're to finish this season on a very strong note.  We are flat-lining forward of center (badly!) and the buck stops at Stafford ...and then Goody.  Come on Simon.  Time to step up and get more heavily involved in this aspect of our game IMO and make the most of our (presently) strong ladder position.

Clarry finishes at No.1  and no doubt he was up there for us on the night.  But jeepers i just felt like he over hand balled (again) and that a large proportion of his disposals went nowhere and ended up being pretty ineffective and or resulting in a Cat's turnover & in some cases a goal.

Steven May (8), Viney (6) & Clarry (5) the three worst turnover offenders.  No doubt Viney & Clarry were under intense pressure tonight (heavy locks?).

Most of Viney's efforts coming inside 50 and some of Traccs reminded me of the name of a villain from a fight scene in a god awful 2008 movie, The Incredible Hulk.  For those of you who are lucky enough to forget or even better, haven't seen it, the Hulk had to battle one of his arch enemies... "Abomination"

Player Score Rank
C Oliver 6.000 1
Jack Viney  4.875 2
A Brayshaw 4.475 3
J Harmes 3.825 4
Steven May 3.225 5
C Petracca 3.025 6
Jake Lever 2.825 7
H Petty 2.650 8
C Salem 2.525 9
Ed Langdon  2.425 10
Max Gawn # 2.375 11
M Hibberd 2.250 12
J Jordon 2.125 13
Alex N-Bullen 1.950 14
L Jackson # 1.650 15
K Pickett 1.625 16
J Bowey 1.425 17
T Bedford 1.225 18
T Sparrow 1.175 19
Ben Brown # 1.100 20
B Fritsch 1.000 21
C Spargo 0.875 22
Team Score 54.63  
Top 6 25.43  
Bottom 6 6.80  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 17, 2022 vs H&A Season 2021

Player 2022 Score 2022 Rank 2021 Score % Change vs 2021 2021 Rank Change in Rank vs 2021
C Oliver 5.536 1 5.258 5.29 1 0
C Petracca 4.216 2 4.041 4.33 2 0
Jack Viney 4.127 3 3.171 30.15 8 5
Steven May 4.008 4 3.926 2.09 3 -1
A Brayshaw 3.823 5 2.836 34.80 12 7
C Salem 3.430 6 3.879 -11.58 4 -2
Ed Langdon 3.386 7 3.092 9.51 9 2
Max Gawn # 3.298 8 3.439 -4.10 7 -1
J Harmes 3.131 9 3.520 -11.05 6 -3
L Jackson # 3.125 10 2.355 32.70 21 11
J Jordon 3.055 11 2.908 5.06 10 -1
L Dunstan 3.025 12 - - - -
Jake Lever 3.023 13 3.661 -17.43 5 -8
T Sparrow 2.905 14 2.023 43.60 28 14
Jake Bowey 2.894 15 2.881 0.45 11 -4
Alex N-Bullen 2.857 16 2.388 19.64 19 3
T Rivers 2.438 17 2.658 -8.28 13 -4
H Petty 2.168 18 2.086 3.93 26 8
T Bedford 2.114 19 - - - -
C Spargo 2.063 20 2.068 -0.24 27 7
Joel Smith 1.957 21 1.375 42.33 32 11
T McDonald # 1.939 22 2.516 -22.93 15 -7
K Pickett 1.932 23 2.378 -18.76 20 -3
J Hunt 1.927 24 2.597 -25.80 14 -10
A Tomlinson 1.925 25 2.475 -22.22 16 -9
Bayley Fritsch 1.803 26 2.155 -16.33 25 -1
S Weideman # 1.747 27 1.055 65.59 27 0
Mitch Brown 1.550 28 2.475 -37.37 16 -12
Ben Brown # 1.540 29 1.855 -16.98 30 1
J Melksham 1.433 30 1.853 -22.67 31 1
Daniel Turner>* 1.200 31 - - - -
Average Team Score - Top 22 68.52   67.23 1.92    

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match...not an average score

> Subbed out

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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Posted (edited)

Round 18, 2022 TIO Traegar Park - Demons vs Power

Oi Oi Oi !!!

We all knew Kozzie was capable of great feats.  Being a rookie he was going to have his ups and downs in the first few years.  But....i'm sure many of us were also waiting.  Waiting to see something very special.  We knew he had more in him, above and beyond even the best games witnessed so far.

Well yesterday we got to see the 'A' game of one Mr K Pickett.  And what a performance it was.  How clean was that folks!

When i first saw some of Kozzy's work in the 2019 national carnival & SANFL i thought "hello" what have we got here!  Thank goodness we traded up.  What a get.  Let's look at how he scored his second highest result since joining the club.  His best result (statistically) was a 4.275 vs the Hawks in Rnd 5, 2021...

12 effectives @ 86%, 2 marks inside 50, one 1 percenter, 3 inside 50s, 8 score involvements, 4 intercepts, 326 Meters gained (that's pretty special for a HF i would think), 6 goals and only 1 turnover.

Tracc lays down another impressive result.  His second best for the season with his best result in round 1 vs the Dogs with a massive 7.350

In what might be a good sign, that was also Big Benny's second best result for the season.  His best was coincidentally against the Doggies in round one as well with a 3.150  He racked up 11 effectives @ 79%, 3 contested marks inside 50, 3 one percenters, 1 clearance, 1 inside 50, 2 tackles (one inside 50), 7 score involvements, 225 meters gaines, 1 hit out, 2 goals and 2 turnovers.  Now that's more like it eh.

Tomo also posting a very good result finishing in the top 5.

Top 5 meters gained (MFC):  Petracca 586, May 546, Langdon 499, Viney 473 & Gus with 416

Team score still a little off last season's average, missing by 7%.

Player Score Rank
C Petracca 6.950 1
K Pickett 4.000 2
A Brayshaw 3.775 3
Steven May 3.575 4
A Tomlinson 3.500 5
Ed Langdon 3.375 6
B Fritsch 3.225 7
L Jackson # 3.150 8
Ben Brown # 3.125 9
M Hibberd 2.800 10
Jack Viney 2.750 11
J Jordon 2.650 12
C Spargo 2.475 13
A N-Bullen 2.450 14
J Harmes 2.400 15
C Salem 2.000 16
J Melksham 2.000 16
Trent Rivers 1.975 18
Max Gawn # 1.900 19
T Sparrow 1.575 20
Jake Lever 1.400 21
T Bedford 1.325 22
Team Score 62.38  
Top 6 25.18  
Bottom 6 10.18  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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11 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Round 18, 2022 TIO Traegar Park - Demons vs Power

Oi Oi Oi !!!

We all knew Kozzie was capable of great feats.  Being a rookie he was going to have his ups and downs in the first few years.  But....i'm sure many of us were also waiting.  Waiting to see something very special.  We knew he had more in him, above and beyond even the best games witnessed so far.

Well yesterday we got to see the 'A' game of one Mr K Pickett.  And what a performance it was.  How clean was that folks!

When i first saw some of Kozzy's work in the 2019 national carnival & SANFL i thought "hello" what have we got here!  Thank goodness we traded up.  What a get.  Let's look at how he scored his second highest result since joining the club.  His best result (statistically) was a 4.275 vs the Hawks in Rnd 5, 2021...

12 effectives @ 86%, 2 marks inside 50, one 1 percenter, 3 inside 50s, 8 score involvements, 4 intercepts, 326 Meters gained (that's pretty special for a HF i would think), 6 goals and only 1 turnover.

Tracc lays down another impressive result.  His second best for the season with his best result in round 1 vs the Dogs with a massive 7.350

In what might be a good sign, that was also Big Benny's second best result for the season.  His best was coincidentally against the Doggies in round one as well with a 3.150  He racked up 11 effectives @ 79%, 3 contested marks inside 50, 3 one percenters, 1 clearance, 1 inside 50, 2 tackles (one inside 50), 7 score involvements, 225 meters gaines, 1 hit out, 2 goals and 2 turnovers.  Now that's more like it eh.

Tomo also posting a very good result finishing in the top 5.

Top 5 meters gained (MFC):  Petracca 586, May 546, Langdon 499, Viney 473 & Gus with 416

Team score still a little off last season's average, missing by 7%.

Player Score Rank
C Petracca 6.950 1
K Pickett 4.000 2
A Brayshaw 3.775 3
Steven May 3.575 4
A Tomlinson 3.500 5
Ed Langdon 3.375 6
B Fritsch 3.225 7
L Jackson # 3.150 8
Ben Brown # 3.125 9
M Hibberd 2.800 10
Jack Viney 2.750 11
J Jordon 2.650 12
C Spargo 2.475 13
A N-Bullen 2.450 14
J Harmes 2.400 15
C Salem 2.000 16
J Melksham 2.000 16
Trent Rivers 1.975 18
Max Gawn # 1.900 19
T Sparrow 1.575 20
Jake Lever 1.400 21
T Bedford 1.325 22
Team Score 62.38  
Top 6 25.18  
Bottom 6 10.18  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

You're a legend Demon Dynasty, cheers!

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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 18, 2022 vs H&A Season 2021

Team score still indicating we are tracking just above 2021 season average.

Player watch:  Salem & Lever struggling after their returns and still a fair way off last season's average.  Harmes slipping slightly away over the last few weeks as well.

Viney, Gus, Jackson, ANB & Sparrow still significantly above their season 2021 averages.  Kozzie making a late run on season 2021.  Petracca starting to get some traction and now up 8% on 2021.  Really stepped up in certain areas last week with Clarry out.

Some of his season averages prior to Port Power...

                   >  Contested 12.5,          Clearances 4.6            & Intercepts 2.5

Vs Power  >  Contested 17 (+4.5)  Clearances 10 (+5.4)  & Intercepts 7 (+4.5)

 

Player 2022 Score 2022 Rank 2021 Score % Change vs 2021 2021 Rank Change in Rank vs 2021
C Oliver 5.536 1 5.258 5.29 1 0
C Petracca 4.376 2 4.041 8.29 2 0
Jack Viney 4.035 3 3.171 27.25 8 5
Steven May 3.977 4 3.926 1.30 3 -1
A Brayshaw 3.821 5 2.836 34.73 12 7
Ed Langdon 3.385 6 3.092 9.48 9 3
Max Gawn # 3.205 7 3.439 -6.80 7 0
C Salem 3.192 8 3.879 -17.71 4 -4
L Jackson # 3.127 9 2.355 32.78 21 12
J Harmes 3.081 10 3.520 -12.47 6 -4
J Jordon 3.031 11 2.908 4.23 10 -1
L Dunstan 3.025 12 - - - -
Jake Lever 2.915 13 3.661 -20.38 5 -8
Jake Bowey 2.894 14 2.881 0.45 11 -3
Alex N-Bullen 2.831 15 2.388 18.55 19 4
T Sparrow 2.822 16 2.023 39.50 28 12
T Rivers 2.395 17 2.658 -9.89 13 -4
A Tomlinson 2.188 18 2.475 -11.60 16 -2
H Petty 2.168 19 2.086 3.93 26 7
C Spargo 2.087 20 2.068 0.92 27 7
K Pickett 2.061 21 2.378 -13.33 20 -1
T Bedford 2.009 22 - - - -
Joel Smith 1.957 23 1.375 42.33 32 9
T McDonald # 1.939 24 2.516 -22.93 15 -9
J Hunt 1.927 25 2.597 -25.80 14 -11
Bayley Fritsch 1.887 26 2.155 -12.44 25 -1
S Weideman # 1.747 27 1.055 65.59 27 0
Ben Brown # 1.654 28 1.855 -10.84 30 2
J Melksham 1.575 29 1.853 -15.00 31 2
Mitch Brown 1.550 30 2.475 -37.37 16 -14
Daniel Turner>*TOG 49% 1.200 31 - - - -
  68.16   67.23 1.38    

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match...not an average score

> Subbed out

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27 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Player watch:  Salem & Lever struggling after their returns and still a fair way off last season's average.  Harmes slipping slightly away over the last few weeks as well.

Love your work DD. I apologize if this has been covered elsewhere but what is the effect on the ratings if/when game time is taken into account? In relation to Harmes I've noticed in recent weeks he has been spending less time on the field. When you look at last years ratings compared to this year is there also a comparison against time on ground?

This applies to a number of other players as well. If we look at Sparrow; last week he had 60% game time  and a rating of 1.575. Against PA he had 80% game time and a rating of 2.023.

I've been watching the game time stats each week for a number of weeks now and at times have found some surprising figures for individual players. I'm sure some of this is tactical, some is match up/ hot hand based and some is load management.

Finally, is there anywhere I can find game time stats per player across the whole season?

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8 hours ago, dworship said:

Love your work DD. I apologize if this has been covered elsewhere but what is the effect on the ratings if/when game time is taken into account? In relation to Harmes I've noticed in recent weeks he has been spending less time on the field. When you look at last years ratings compared to this year is there also a comparison against time on ground?

This applies to a number of other players as well. If we look at Sparrow; last week he had 60% game time  and a rating of 1.575. Against PA he had 80% game time and a rating of 2.023.

I've been watching the game time stats each week for a number of weeks now and at times have found some surprising figures for individual players. I'm sure some of this is tactical, some is match up/ hot hand based and some is load management.

Finally, is there anywhere I can find game time stats per player across the whole season?

I have the full season stats on my website: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

You can filter by team under "Player Filters", but here are the average game time stats for all Melbourne's players this year:

image.png.c2ade87d277411066d0c04467627c4b8.png

image.png.14a64a3c18ac61623aa1020e3b5abf5a.png

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, dworship said:

Love your work DD. I apologize if this has been covered elsewhere but what is the effect on the ratings if/when game time is taken into account? In relation to Harmes I've noticed in recent weeks he has been spending less time on the field. When you look at last years ratings compared to this year is there also a comparison against time on ground?

Breaking this down into two sections DW.

Firstly re TOG... it's a little like how long is a piece of string, bar injury or being subbed in.  Also not knowing anything from the inside about loading / de-loading / niggles / mild illness / recovery from injury etc, it's a little hard to gauge how to utilise this into an overall rating DW.

In some ways you could argue that a player coming on less, might be coming on in smaller spurts than say a player who is on 95% - 100% of the time and just may be hitting the turf with more energy in each of those stints.  Maybe, and it's a big maybe, racking up a higher number of possessions per minutes played vs say a stayer, like Langdon etc, who might be fatiguing a fair bit in the latter part of quarters/matches, therefore getting a lower ratio of possessions per minute played in the last 5 minutes (or whatever) and possibly during patches in the middle or other stages of quarters later in games?

There's also the role being asked.  Heavy tag might involve more game time but less likely to be racking up the numbers.  Or alternatively tagger's opponent might be playing heavy minutes up forward vs through the middle.  Tagger only asked to cover mid-field minutes for short stints.  Gets freed up to rack up some decent stats after oppo player goes forward (and someone else picks him up) and is still able to play a fair amount of game time due to not as much fatigue factor.  Or the reverse might be true and tagged player is playing heavy mid field minutes.  Tagger asked to cover for much longer through the middle, still gets reasonable game time, but doesn't rack up the numbers so much due to the heavy tag.

There's a squillion other scenarios i'm sure.

Having said that lets look at Harmes pre/post injury this season vs this season's average.  Also Harmes this season vs last H&A average.  Pre / Post injury vs last season's H&A average.  Plus lets look at overall season so far vs his FInals average from 2021 including the GF.  We can also look at last week's game as you mentioned although we should be pretty wary of looking at one off results IMHO (bar injury and being subbed or an injury that causes a player to miss the following week ie., carrying an injury through part of a match).

Harmes 2022 H&A

Pre Injury Ave TOG% = 71.75%

Post Injury Ave TOG% = 75.00%

Looking at his first two games back from injury he had a 69% & 71%.  That's roughly about his pre injury average at 70%.  His next three matches against the Lions, Crows & Cats 82%, 80% & 79% respectively (loading in game?).  Followed by another 69% against the power (de-loading or other factor/s?  Although this is actually still higher than pre-injury averages so go figure!).

Harmes 2021 H&A Ave TOG% = 75.80%

Harmes 2021 Finals Series Ave TOG% = 77.33%

Looking at these averages, Harmes is playing more TOG% post his injury so in theory should be racking up a few more stats.  But actually his rating is slowly dropping away vs his 2021 H&A season average rating and may well be dropping away vs his pre-injury rating.  This has been a gradual drop off since his return it would seem.  Could be something to do with fitness levels post the injury and ability to retain pre-injury levels of fitness?  Is it purely a form issue?  Really hard to tell unless inside the four walls and chatting to Harmes.  All we can do is speculate.

Having said that, 12% off his 2021 average rating is still gettable form for Harmes (assuming all is going right off the field) in time for a serious step up in output in time for a finals campaign.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, dworship said:

This applies to a number of other players as well. If we look at Sparrow; last week he had 60% game time  and a rating of 1.575. Against PA he had 80% game time and a rating of 2.023.

I've been watching the game time stats each week for a number of weeks now and at times have found some surprising figures for individual players. I'm sure some of this is tactical, some is match up/ hot hand based and some is load management.

Finally, is there anywhere I can find game time stats per player across the whole season?

Sparrow's previous week against the Cats produced a lowly rating of 1.175 DW.  Last week vs the Power 1.575  Both weeks way off his season average 2.822

If we do a very brainless / simple extrapolation and say he should in theory have a rating that's 20% higher vs the Cats (assuming the same game time of 80% vs Port).  That would result in a rating of 1.410 vs the Cats.  Still behind his match against the Power.  But as stated who knows the reasoning behind some of these numbers. Without knowing the role being asked, loading issues, niggles, quality of opponent, being soft tagged, applying some sort of tag etc, many of these numbers/exercises are pure speculation and in some ways a bit meaningless as we are flying blind!

With regard to the last part do you have/use Excel?  I'm happy to send a copy of the season averages for all players to date on all stats i collect including TOG% if you want to have a look through.  From there you can add your own list filters by stats to see highest/lowest in order to check rankings etc if interested.  Alternatively just go to Wheelo's site up there which looks interesting and appears to offer good drill down options.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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1 hour ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Sparrow's previous week against the Cats produced a lowly rating of 1.175 DW.  Last week vs the Power 1.575  Both weeks way off his season average 2.822

If we do a very brainless / simple extrapolation and say he should in theory have a rating that's 20% higher vs the Cats (assuming the same game time of 80% vs Port).  That would result in a rating of 1.410 vs the Cats.  Still behind his match against the Power.  But as stated who knows the reasoning behind some of these numbers. Without knowing the role being asked, loading issues, niggles, quality of opponent, being soft tagged, applying some sort of tag etc, many of these numbers/exercises are pure speculation and in some ways a bit meaningless as we are flying blind!

With regard to the last part do you have/use Excel?  I'm happy to send a copy of the season averages for all players to date on all stats i collect including TOG% if you want to have a look through.  From there you can add your own list filters by stats to see highest/lowest in order to check rankings etc if interested.  Alternatively just go to Wheelo's site up there which looks interesting and appears to offer good drill down options.

Thanks DD I've PM'd  you  and I think your reply to my question is insightful and illustrates there is much we don't know and confirms some of the things I have often thought. It often irks me how some critics of players make broad statements about how a player has performed in a given game, based solely on somewhat arbitrary measures that aren't always put into context.

As a case in point the Bedford comments regarding his performance last week suggest he didn't do enough and to some extent that is vindicated in Melksham being retained in the side and Toby has been omitted. Melksham has been preferred, to my mind, because of the 7 tackles he layed and the goal he kicked. Toby had 69% game time and went at 100% . Melksham had 76% game time at 66% efficiency. But this is really a time and opportunity situation. Both players were part of the forward rotation but Bedford did a lot of working back supporting the defence and was involved in 2 important chains that meant Melksham ended up with a goal and a goal assist to BBB. Sometimes it's just lucks a fortune, right time, right place.

It's a different conversation but the talk of trading Bedford is way too premature. He has just turned 22 and is developing nicely. I would dislike Melksham being retained for another year and Bedford moved on as I really believe Bedford can do what Melksham has.

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22 minutes ago, dworship said:

Thanks DD I've PM'd  you  and I think your reply to my question is insightful and illustrates there is much we don't know and confirms some of the things I have often thought. It often irks me how some critics of players make broad statements about how a player has performed in a given game, based solely on somewhat arbitrary measures that aren't always put into context.

As a case in point the Bedford comments regarding his performance last week suggest he didn't do enough and to some extent that is vindicated in Melksham being retained in the side and Toby has been omitted. Melksham has been preferred, to my mind, because of the 7 tackles he layed and the goal he kicked. Toby had 69% game time and went at 100% . Melksham had 76% game time at 66% efficiency. But this is really a time and opportunity situation. Both players were part of the forward rotation but Bedford did a lot of working back supporting the defence and was involved in 2 important chains that meant Melksham ended up with a goal and a goal assist to BBB. Sometimes it's just lucks a fortune, right time, right place.

It's a different conversation but the talk of trading Bedford is way too premature. He has just turned 22 and is developing nicely. I would dislike Melksham being retained for another year and Bedford moved on as I really believe Bedford can do what Melksham has.

Agree on Bedford DW.  Work in progress but would like to see him retained. 

Showed some very promising signs in patches and just needs a good block of games to find his feet at the higher level.

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14 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Sparrow's previous week against the Cats produced a lowly rating of 1.175 DW.  Last week vs the Power 1.575  Both weeks way off his season average 2.822

If we do a very brainless / simple extrapolation and say he should in theory have a rating that's 20% higher vs the Cats (assuming the same game time of 80% vs Port).  That would result in a rating of 1.410 vs the Cats.  Still behind his match against the Power.  But as stated who knows the reasoning behind some of these numbers. Without knowing the role being asked, loading issues, niggles, quality of opponent, being soft tagged, applying some sort of tag etc, many of these numbers/exercises are pure speculation and in some ways a bit meaningless as we are flying blind!

With regard to the last part do you have/use Excel?  I'm happy to send a copy of the season averages for all players to date on all stats i collect including TOG% if you want to have a look through.  From there you can add your own list filters by stats to see highest/lowest in order to check rankings etc if interested.  Alternatively just go to Wheelo's site up there which looks interesting and appears to offer good drill down options.

I agree that extrapolation of a player's rating (or any stat) based on game time is somewhat meaningless. However, taking game time into account in aggregating player averages across a season can be useful particularly for medi-subs and players injured during a match who may only be on the ground for a very short time or not at all. Instead of extrapolating a particular stat, a weighted average by game time could be calculated for a particular stat across the season.

Salem, for example, only played 13% game time in round 1 which significantly reduces his averages. His average fantasy points is 68.9 across the season but 79.8 excluding round 1. His weighted average based on game time is 78.2 which is probably a better reflection of his average output.

image.png.32ed1d1f085a34af495aba8ecd9fe32b.png

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2 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

I agree that extrapolation of a player's rating (or any stat) based on game time is somewhat meaningless. However, taking game time into account in aggregating player averages across a season can be useful particularly for medi-subs and players injured during a match who may only be on the ground for a very short time or not at all. Instead of extrapolating a particular stat, a weighted average by game time could be calculated for a particular stat across the season.

Salem, for example, only played 13% game time in round 1 which significantly reduces his averages. His average fantasy points is 68.9 across the season but 79.8 excluding round 1. His weighted average based on game time is 78.2 which is probably a better reflection of his average output.

image.png.32ed1d1f085a34af495aba8ecd9fe32b.png

Thanks Wheelo.

Yes my weekly season averages table (vs prior season) is weighted and if a player doesn't play a full game (ie;  subbed out / on) i adjust for that round to cater accordingly and ensure their averages are not skewed for comparative purposes.

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Round 19, 2022 Marvel Stadium - Bulldogs vs Demons

Statistically our worst top six performance for the season.  Rivers, Tomo, Spargo & Harmes ...yikes!

Player Score Rank
Clayton Oliver 4.400 1
Angus Brayshaw 4.175 2
Christian Petracca 4.025 3
Steven May 3.650 4
Tom Sparrow 3.400 5
Jack Viney 3.350 6
Max Gawn 3.350 6
Christian Salem 3.275 8
Luke Jackson 3.125 9
Harrison Petty 3.000 10
Bayley Fritsch 2.900 11
Alex N-Bullen 2.850 12
Michael Hibberd 2.600 13
James Jordon 2.525 14
Sam Weideman 2.300 15
Jake Melksham 2.250 16
Ed Langdon 2.225 17
Kysaiah Pickett 2.075 18
Trent Rivers 1.525 19
Adam Tomlinson 1.425 20
Charlie Spargo 1.300 21
James Harmes 1.300 21
Team Score 61.03  
Top 6 23.00  
Bottom 6 9.85  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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Wow DD given our poor stats I am amazed that we we were able to hang in there until the last five minutes of the game. We just need to get our team to lift marginally to get back to the winning list.!!

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2 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Wow DD given our poor stats I am amazed that we we were able to hang in there until the last five minutes of the game. We just need to get our team to lift marginally to get back to the winning list.!!

Yes it would seem that way DZ.  However how easy is it to flick a switch and it all just clicks?  Especially given the degree of difficulty in the last four rounds.  Really needed to put the Dogs away.

We have had interruptions with maintaining our best team all season.

Then we've seen some of those returning from injury struggle to maintain form such as Lever, Harmes and in his first few weeks post covid ... Tracc.  Dogga has never really regained his pre covid form for consecutive weeks either.

It was a bit of a tale of two halves.  With Clarry another player struggling after half time to maintain his usual high standards and understandably so.  Should we have played him or brought Dunstan in giving him one more week to fully recover?  It was obvious he struggled after half time.  Yes no doubt a better option even under duress but was it worth the risk?

Even though he still finished No.1 (statistically) on the night, that rating (4.40) from Clarry was 20% below his usual season average pre injury (5.53)!

I guess us hanging in there and actually leading for much of the game is a testament to how well we did play for about 2.5 to 3 quarters.  Unfortunately after that the Doggies just kept going and we began to fall away.  The pressure wasn't really there from us from the get go though, allowing the Dogs to post a higher score in a bit of a shoot out.

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Posted (edited)

Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 19, 2022 vs H&A Season 2021

Note:  Adjustment for Dunstan to allow for Rnd 11 subbed factor of only 46% game time (previously missed)...

Player 2022 Score 2022 Rank 2021 Score % Change vs 2021 2021 Rank Change in Rank vs 2021
C Oliver 5.469 1 5.258 4.01 1 0
C Petracca 4.357 2 4.041 7.82 2 0
Jack Viney 3.992 3 3.171 25.89 8 5
Steven May 3.942 4 3.926 0.41 3 -1
A Brayshaw 3.840 5 2.836 35.40 12 7
L Dunstan 3.497 6 - - - -
Ed Langdon 3.314 7 3.092 7.18 9 2
J Jordon 3.244 8 2.908 11.55 10 2
Max Gawn # 3.214 9 3.439 -6.54 7 -2
C Salem 3.204 10 3.879 -17.40 4 -6
L Jackson # 3.191 11 2.355 35.50 21 10
J Harmes 3.063 12 3.520 -12.98 6 -6
Jake Bowey 2.894 13 2.881 0.45 11 -2
T Sparrow 2.856 14 2.023 41.18 28 14
Alex N-Bullen 2.832 15 2.388 18.59 19 4
Jake Lever 2.788 16 3.661 -23.85 5 -11
H Petty 2.371 17 2.086 13.66 26 9
T Rivers 2.323 18 2.658 -12.60 13 -5
Joel Smith 2.239 19 1.375 62.84 32 13
A Tomlinson 2.079 20 2.475 -16.00 16 -4
K Pickett 2.062 21 2.378 -13.29 20 -1
C Spargo 2.043 22 2.068 -1.21 27 5
T Bedford 2.023 23 - - - -
Bayley Fritsch 1.943 24 2.155 -9.84 25 1
T McDonald # 1.939 25 2.516 -22.93 15 -10
S Weideman # 1.808 26 1.055 71.37 27 1
J Melksham 1.710 27 1.853 -7.72 31 4
Ben Brown # 1.654 28 1.855 -10.84 30 2
J Hunt 1.604 29 2.597 -38.24 14 -15
Mitch Brown 1.550 30 2.475 -37.37 16 -14
Daniel Turner>*TOG 49% 1.200 31 - - - -
  68.81   67.23 2.36    

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match...not an average score

> Subbed out

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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G'day Guys,

Below is an excerpt out of another thread which had me thinking about game time stats again. The question it raises is; can we drill down deeper into this stat and get a figure for TOG by qtr? From a tactics perspective it would make sense to say to a player like Sparrow; go flat out in say qtr 1&2 and have him spend the majority of his time on ground during those quarters. Then in the second half give him limited time in rotation and play someone like Harmes in the same role for the second half.

On 7/23/2022 at 11:25 PM, dazzledavey36 said:

Played 2 good quarters and then went missing in the 2nd half.

He had 5 disposals for the last two quarters. Still not doing enough for me.

This is one of those questions I've posed on the "stats" thread. Sparrow only played 65% game time.

It would be great to know what his time on ground was in the 2nd half. So when you say he went missing, maybe he really was. I don't know the answer to that but I would love it if someone did.

 

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Thanks DD there have been a lot of improvements this year JV and Gus the standouts along with Petty, ANB, LJ, Sparrow and JJ but we have a lot of drop offs as well - Lever, Kozzie, Salem, Harmes, Fritta, BBB and Tommo all down on last years form. So plenty of room for improvement.

Go Dees. !!!!

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18 hours ago, dworship said:

 

G'day Guys,

Below is an excerpt out of another thread which had me thinking about game time stats again. The question it raises is; can we drill down deeper into this stat and get a figure for TOG by qtr? From a tactics perspective it would make sense to say to a player like Sparrow; go flat out in say qtr 1&2 and have him spend the majority of his time on ground during those quarters. Then in the second half give him limited time in rotation and play someone like Harmes in the same role for the second half.

This is one of those questions I've posed on the "stats" thread. Sparrow only played 65% game time.

It would be great to know what his time on ground was in the 2nd half. So when you say he went missing, maybe he really was. I don't know the answer to that but I would love it if someone did.

 

Would be nice but i don't know of anyone that's supplying TOG by quarter DW.  Champion probably supply to the clubs & AFL media

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Posted (edited)

Round 20, 2022 Optus Stadium - Dockers vs Demons

Brayshaw back into the middle with a bang!  His second best rating for the season.  His best against the Bombers in Rnd three with a top of the table 6.35

Let's look at a few highlights... 20 effectives @ 71% efficiency.  4 Clearances (all from stoppage), 9 inside 50s, 6 tackles, 7 score involvements, a massive 9 intercepts, 564 meters gained (the most for the Demons).

Tracc's second number one rating since his return after his covid week off.  26 effectives @ 87%, 6 clearances, 7 inside 50s, 8 tackles (3 inside 50), 10 score involvements, 491 meters gained and a miserly 2 turnovers.

The team's overall rating of 62.33 was off last year's average of 67.23 by 7% and further off this year's (68.81).  So i'd be tempering this performance a little, even given the greasy conditions and playing away.  That's a fair way off and we would need a major lift from some of the stars and next rung players to beat the Pies IMV who are probably running at another level at this point.

Namely the likes of Clarry, Max, Jackson, Salem, Sparrow, Lever, ANB & Weid (if playing).  It was only one match so not hanging my hat on just Friday night's performance from those listed, but Even May was off this season's and last season's average by 21%.  That's a fair amount of form to claw back within a week (that's if the numbers are a reasonable indicator of form which in this case they may not be of course...could be many factors that lead to that rating on this particular night).

Player Rating Rank
C Petracca 6.500 1
A Brayshaw 5.450 2
Jack Viney 4.875 3
Ed Langdon 3.900 4
M Hibberd 3.550 5
C Oliver 3.100 6
S May  3.100 6
T Rivers 2.975 8
J Jordon 2.675 9
Max Gawn # 2.500 10
K Pickett 2.475 11
J Hunt 2.400 12
H Petty 2.375 13
B Fritsch 2.300 14
C Salem 2.250 15
C Spargo 2.200 16
T Sparrow 2.175 17
L Jackson # 2.050 18
J Melksham 2.025 19
Jake Lever 1.675 20
Alex N-Bullen 1.000 21
S Weideman # 0.775 22
Team Score 62.33  
Top 6 27.38  
Bottom 6 9.70  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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