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Rebound after a bad year stats

Older demon
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

1810388947_ScreenShot2019-07-24at1_44_57pm.png.03d23a6489f78837175126616f75907d.png

 

A lot has been written about this year being an aberration and there was a variety of opinion on our status on radio yesterday. I decided to look back over the last 9 years at ladder position and who fallaway and how long did it take to rebound. The stats suggest the next few years will not be what we hope for 

In the period 2010 to 2018 the only teams that didn't appear in finals were Brisbane & Gold Coast with the other 16 teams all making an appearance with MFC making it just with one. From 2010 to 16 teams that made the top 4 and fell away and the time to rebound were Bulldogs 2010 missed finals next 4 years. West Coast 2011 missed next 3 years. Adelaide 2012 missed next 2 years. 2014 Geel missed 1 year. 2015 Freo missed the next 3. Lesson to learn, bad years are rarely a 1 year aberration which doesn't augur well for MFC in 2020

Overall the stats for the 16 teams is as follows. Listed are finals appearances over 9 years and largest gap in between finals appearance.

So, Collingwood have 5 finals appearance and a gap of 4 years between finals. Geelong have 8 and missed 1 year. Saints have 2 appearances and 7 years out. Bulldogs have 3 finals appearances and a 4 year maximum gap. Syd have 9 out of 9. Freo have 5 finals appearances and a 3 year gap that is growing. Hawks 8 and missed once. Carlton what a surprise 3 finals appearances but 5 years out and growing. West Coast 6 finals appearances and a 2 year gap out of the 8. Essendon 3 times in the 8 but never out for more than 2 years. North 4 top 8 finishes with a 4 year gap missing the 8. Richmond 5 top 8 finishes and at worst out for 3 years. Adelaide 4 top 8 and out of the 8 for 2 years. Port Adelaide 3 top 8 finishes and out for 3 years. GWS took 6 years to make their first final but have made the top 8 the last 3 years.

The moral is don't expect to return to finals next year because it is rare. The fall is usually for a couple of years.

I don't think our list is as good as we think and we need much more depth so I hope we use the high draft picks wisely. Given the delistings last year and the influx of Sparrow, Jordan, Bedford, Nietschke, Here, Chandler, Lockhart and Dunkley means there is a lot of development needed. I have lowered my expectation for next year as history says only Hawthorn and Geelong have slipped for a year. With the exception of the dogs in 2016 the flag always comes from the top 4.

The top 4 since 2010 has been limited to 9 teams Hawks have 7, Cats 6, Swans 5, Pies 4, Freo & Eagles 3, Crows & GWS 2 with Saints & Dogs 1 each. Port Adelaide is the team stats that most interest as a model for MFC to avoid. In 2014 they came with seconds of knocking off eventual premiers Hawthorn since then they missed finals for 2 years got 5th in 2017 and haven't made finals since.

Edited by Grapeviney

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    I looked at a similar range in another thread, mainly the % decrease in % and how it correlates with ladder position in a year after making finals. Only one team - Richmond in 2017 - with as significant drop as us this year was able to make finals a year after their own similarly major fall from grace.

    It is why it is integral the club acknowledges this and makes major changes asap.

    So many metrics paint a discouraging picture for 2020 but it's all historical. The odds are against us but we can turn it around. But it will come on the back of change. We won't succeed with the current plan and structure.

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    Actions (decisions) have information, but have no history.  What this means is that regardless of the historical story, who finished where, when etc, the history has no bearing on the next decision or event.  What matters is that compared to other teams, we need to have the players, the game plan, the luck with injuries and the attitude and culture to win enough games to make the finals next year.  Nothing that happened to other teams before that impacts that outcome.

    To play the game, however: the fact that other teams have dropped for one year could suggest that it is possible for us.  That other teams have dropped for longer might talk more to their trajectory, than as a reasonable comparison.  Regardless, I’m glass half full - even what I saw in the game in the Alice was loaded with promise. Go Dees in 2020.

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    7 hours ago, Older demon said:

    A lot has been written about this year being an aberration....

    Good analysis but am feeling depressed after reading it!

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    The closest to a counter argument I can make is our decade on the 2000's.  Up and down like the proverbial brides nightie.

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    The last 5 decades are an aberation

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    How can a team that plays in a prelim finish 5th? Does that mean the you can win a flag and finish 8th?

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